The "running the table" question revisited

[alexrgct]

During the offeseason, there was a poll asking whether Uconn would go 39-0. The poll results and associated discussion were sharply divided, albeit polite. Those who voted that UConn would not go undefeated pointed to injuries as a possibility and that anything can happen over the course of every game. Well, injuries have become a reality, and damn near anything did happen for a stretch against Penn State yesterday afternoon. With potentially as many as 35 games ahead, where does this all leave UConn?

For one thing, I'd suggest it leaves UConn 4-0, including 3-0 against top 15 competition. It leaves a six-game stretch of upcoming games until Duke that won't be much of a challenge. And really, outside of Duke and Louisville, no one else on the schedule should measure up. Baylor? I have a hard time believing that's likely given that Griner was the difference in two close defeats. Cal? No way. Could the equivalent of the ST John's loss happen against anyone else? Perhaps, if someone in the AAC has some well-coached talent, a great game plan, and just enough swagger to hit big shots.

So the crux of my point is still as follows: if UConn does not go 39-0, who will have beaten them? Stay tuned, because a three-game gauntlet like Stanford/UMD/PSU was exactly the kind of stretch where the stars align and a game is lost, and UConn ran the table with relative ease just the same.

Certainly, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Duke will be out there as a threat down the road, or maybe UConn-Louisville IV is going to be rigged to happen. But KML and Morgan Tuck will be back. It's been a perfect start; a perfect ending is not out of the question.

 

[rford53]

There is one more game on the run to #9 which would make it 40 - 0, matching Baylor's perfect 2011-2012 season. The odds of a perfect season is better than 75%, with only Duke and Louisville as serious challenges; despite our key injuries. In the NCAA tourney having to play on Notre Dame, Stanford, Nebraska or Louisville's home court will only add some intrigue and spice to this historical season!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Short of the Duke game, if U Conn is to lose in the regular season it will be one of those unpredictable everyone goes stone cold type of events or a one sided swallowing of the whistle against Louisville.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Now that we have beaten those 3, including 2 on the road, by 17+ with key injuries, I think the outlook is very good. I think only Duke or someone in the Final Four has a serious chance, especially if we get healthy.

 

[JoePgh]

I was frankly a little surprised in yesterday's game with how much trouble the UConn half-court offense had against Penn State's zone. They got maybe one layup in half-court against that zone in the entire game. They did move the ball well around the perimeter and got some short, makeable jump shots, which (after the first 8 minutes) they did make at a good percentage, and when KML returns (assuming that she is the "old KML"), the idea of playing a zone against UConn may seem preposterous to opposing coaches.

But that is one way that they could lose a game to a less talented team -- it could play a zone and limit UConn to jump shots, which they might not make in an adequate percentage on a specific night. The other team would still have to get through the UConn defense or shoot fantastically from outside, and they would have to control UConn's transition game and its ballhawking guards -- all of which makes the scenario not more than about a 10% chance, if that. But it could happen.

I'm deliberately trying to look for a few clouds in a rather bright sky -- the opposite of seeing the silver lining.

 

[VAMike23]

Agreed -

IMO, only Duke looms...........will they pull a Notre Dame? Always getting their a*s handed to them by the Huskies even when highly ranked, only to finally break through once their key players became upperclassmen and they learn what it really takes to play with UCONN? Or will they continue to flounder against 40 minutes of Connecticut's intensity?

Chelsea Gray appears to be back for real, and she's a difference maker. Big, talented guards are a challenge for any defense. The team starts 3 seniors, a junior and a soph. The game is obviously at home. We're still short a couple of key players. And the big red circle around "Dec 17" on their calendar has probably been burning in their minds ever since the last time we spanked them. For this core group, it will be their last chance to beat UCONN unless we meet in the FF.

Then again, Cal is starting to look suspect and the Dookies only beat them by 12 (albeit on the road)..... and JPM is not the coach that McGraw is when it comes to raising the intensity level of her players. ND is the only team who has shown they can consistently rise to that level.

A truly inspired effort by Duke could give them a December upset, but as of now I still don't see that happening. We'll see how Duke looks against their opponents between now and then.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Wondering if PSU plays Zone if KML is playing. That can't be a successful strategy.

 

[MarlboroughMike]

Duke on the road as well as Louisville on the road will be tough games, but I worry more about what I consider trap games like the Oregon game on Wednesday. They have two two guards @ 5-10 & 5-11 that are averaging 25.7 and 20.0 points respectively. A 6-3 forward is averaging 18.7 points/game. They lost their last game against Sacramento State, but won the prior two by averaging 122 points/game. The fact that they like to run concerns me. I am sure we are ready to take on a running teams condition wise, but mentally? UCONN has just come off 3 tough games, the toughest stretch in the schedule. A lot of minutes have been played by key players. There might be a tendency to mentally relax just a bit (St. John's). I am sure the coaches will talk to the teams about this very point - but still, a "trap" game?

 

[diggerfoot]

My take: Duke is the main obstacle because of the timing, and we could beat them both now and later. Yet even if we don't beat them now, I think that increases our chance at beating them later when it really counts.

 

[Icebear]

Duke on the road as well as Louisville on the road will be tough games, but I worry more about what I consider trap games like the Oregon game on Wednesday. They have two two guards @ 5-10 & 5-11 that are averaging 25.7 and 20.0 points respectively. A 6-3 forward is averaging 18.7 points/game. They lost their last game against Sacramento State, but won the prior two by averaging 122 points/game. The fact that they like to run concerns me. I am sure we are ready to take on a running teams condition wise, but mentally? UCONN has just come off 3 tough games, the toughest stretch in the schedule. A lot of minutes have been played by key players. There might be a tendency to mentally relax just a bit (St. John's). I am sure the coaches will talk to the teams about this very point - but still, a "trap" game?

That will depend upon whether we are back at full force or not. If we are I have little fear of Duke or Louisville.

 

[rford53]

Duke on the road as well as Louisville on the road will be tough games, but I worry more about what I consider trap games like the Oregon game on Wednesday. They have two two guards @ 5-10 & 5-11 that are averaging 25.7 and 20.0 points respectively. A 6-3 forward is averaging 18.7 points/game. They lost their last game against Sacramento State, but won the prior two by averaging 122 points/game. The fact that they like to run concerns me. I am sure we are ready to take on a running teams condition wise, but mentally? UCONN has just come off 3 tough games, the toughest stretch in the schedule. A lot of minutes have been played by key players. There might be a tendency to mentally relax just a bit (St. John's). I am sure the coaches will talk to the teams about this very point - but still, a "trap" game?

MM - There is nothing to worry about! A trap Game? Oregon hasn't faced a defense like UConn and when they get out to run they expect to throw up a shot within 10 seconds (The game with Sacrament had a total of 224 shots- that's about 6 shots a minute) UConn 110 - 50.

 

[Geno-ista]

Alot of good thoughts on this thread. Before season, I originally thought this past weekend was the best threat for a loss- assuming we were healthy,that this was a good time on the road vs physical talented teams back to back early-- for an upset. Going into Duke, all the hype, short bench, down basically two starters---- This will be the game IMO that is the toughest in my mind. Duke is deep and experienced. Healthy I am not that nervous. This game in 4 weeks- yea, I think this game could be more of a game. Stamford forced our worse 3 pt shooters to shoot for 10-15 minutes of the first half and stayed close. Penn State neutralized our offense to some degree with a tough zone and not alot of easy transition baskets. Duke has two star guards. Alexis Jones was the threat last year that we couldn't contain, that kept Duke in the game until we took care of business. They have depth and alot of veteran talent. This will be a test. And a loss wouldn't be the end of the world- not that I think we can't beat them with our current line-up. i hope we don't rush Morgan back just for this game unless she is actually ready! We wouldn't be that stupid. It is the banner at the end of the season that's the prize!

 

[bschwartz]

There will be more than a few teams on the schedule that will be desperate when they play UConn. Some coach is going to say screw the areas of concern and do everything it can to get the bigs in foul trouble. Will it work. I don't know but it can't be good for Husky health. I just want a full, healthy and confident roster, and I think everything will be fine. I am good with worse than 39-0 that comes with a national championship and a healthy group for next season. Though a loss in Durham would certainly sting.

However, until they prove otherwise, Duke is still a choker in big games in my book. I do think Husky depth will be the central issue in that game. Hopefully Morgan will be back by then (KML too but methinks that will be less likely).

 

[JoePgh]

Wondering if PSU plays Zone if KML is playing. That can't be a successful strategy.

Not likely to be successful if it is the "normal KML", making 50% of her 3's. But the KML we see when she returns may not be that player -- not with lingering nerve damage in her shooting arm. She may have to earn her minutes "the old fashioned way", with hustle, drives, rebounds, and defense. It may be up to Bria, Breanna, and Saniya to be the 3-point threats. We may find that continues to be the case for the entire season.

If we can get 20 minutes per game starting in January from KML even without any significant amount of 3-point scoring, that will be fine. With that plus the rest of the roster, there is enough for a National Championship and possibly an undefeated season.

 

[baggerbob]

Posted before until KML, and Morgan come back UConn offense will sometimes look dysfunctional, because teams will play zone. If Stef , and Stewie have to sit who do you have on the floor who can consistently hit jumpers? Somewhere Moriah, Briana have to find a way to score besides layups, to open things up inside.

 

[Sonny44]

That will depend upon whether we are back at full force or not. If we are I have little fear of Duke or Louisville.

Vehemently agree!

 

[HGN]

Might be a tad bit early for running the table talk..........Long season and injuries to starters do occur. Also , lets not forget waht happened to Baylor last year against Louisville when they were thought to be invincible.

Just saying.

 

[msf22b]

If (when) we get through Duke, the question will be not how many games but how many seasons we will run the table…
two? three? more?

We are in the process of putting together the greatest juggernaut in the history of the sport.

 

[Tonyc]

The difference between Baylor losing last season and UConn losing this season if healthy is defense. UConn plays it and Baylor didn't and either did Tenn and that's why they both lost to LVille. Now we beat MD at MD by 17 without MTuck and KML. IMO I think we have them back or at least one for the Duke game. If they are close to what they were we will not lose. Why? We play strangulating defense. Will Duke try to get our bigs in foul trouble. Maybe. By that time Geno will have them ready. IF you just watched what UConn did with a short bench and fatigue these last 3 games you can understand why I think they wont lose. The chances are better now that KML and MTuck are on the bench but don't forget we run a system and now we have Kiah BB and Saniya and they can score. We are going to be very very tuff to beat. We could lose which is not getting beat. Getting beat is an opponent out playing you and that wont happen. Losing is when you are injured, or just play terrible as a team and that's pretty tuff to do when you have the players on your roster like UConn has.

 

[Sonny44]

The difference between Baylor losing last season and UConn losing this season if healthy is defense. UConn plays it and Baylor didn't and either did Tenn and that's why they both lost to LVille. Now we beat MD at MD by 17 without MTuck and KML. IMO I think we have them back or at least one for the Duke game. If they are close to what they were we will not lose. Why? We play strangulating defense. Will Duke try to get our bigs in foul trouble. Maybe. By that time Geno will have them ready. IF you just watched what UConn did with a short bench and fatigue these last 3 games you can understand why I think they wont lose. The chances are better now that KML and MTuck are on the bench but don't forget we run a system and now we have Kiah BB and Saniya and they can score. We are going to be very very tuff to beat. We could lose which is not getting beat. Getting beat is an opponent out playing you and that wont happen. Losing is when you are injured, or just play terrible as a team and that's pretty tuff to do when you have the players on your roster like UConn has.

You just need to have a little more faith Tony..

 

[chrissaran]

If Duke doesn't defeat UConn, they're more likely to get beat deep in the tournament by Notre Dame or Tennessee. Not that they will, but more likely to. However, if they get to the championship game, it's 9-0. Never a loss in the finals.

 

[Geno-ista]

If (when) we get through Duke, the question will be not how many games but how many seasons we will run the table…
two? three? more?

We are in the process of putting together the greatest juggernaut in the history of the sport.

You are right---- the 7 person team we have playing is reltively young---- this is a potential mega dynasty.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Besides Duke the one that worries me is ND, presumably in the F4. I'm getting the feeling that they will be just as good as last year's team once Achonwa is back. With a freshman pg there will be some bumps along the way but my bet is they end up ranked 3 or maybe even 2

 

[triaddukefan]

If Duke doesn't defeat UConn, they're more likely to get beat deep in the tournament by Notre Dame or Tennessee. Not that they will, but more likely to. However, if they get to the championship game, it's 9-0. Never a loss in the finals.

No way in heck would tenn beat UCONN....

 

[alexrgct]

Might be a tad bit early for running the table talk..........Long season and injuries to starters do occur. Also , lets not forget waht happened to Baylor last year against Louisville when they were thought to be invincible.

Just saying.

The question comes up frequently. It came up before 2009-10 after UConn had run the table the season before. Baylor was generally thought of as a team that could go 40-0 early in 2011-12 (with UConn on December 18, 2011 being the main hurdle). Baylor was given a chance to run the table in 2012-13, but they lost to Stanford only three games in.

This is a UConn team that finished last season 6-0 with significant ease, and it returns its core other than Kelly. Uconn has won four in a row to start, including against some very good competition on the road. See- already ahead of where Baylor was a year ago...and 35 games behind UConn in 2001, 2008, or 2009.