The Rise of Superteams in WBB | Page 2 | The Boneyard

The Rise of Superteams in WBB

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Through the years WBB has produced its share of dominant programs. The recipe starts with a great coach and recruiter, a championship team or two, a process that reloads recruiting talent year after year, develops them into “pro-ready” players and continues to win or compete for more championships. Undoubtedly, UConn WBB, more than any other program, has employed this formula to achieve unparalleled success.

In addition, WBB had a limited pool of great players who gravitated to top programs. Unlike MBB where “one and done” is often the rule for the very top recruits, the W limits eligibility to players who are either 22 years of age, completed their college eligibility or have graduated from a 4-year college. Finally, transfers used to be required to sit out a year. These restrictions funneled the very best players to the very best programs where they typically remained for 4 years.

Over the past 5 years or so there have been several significant changes that have forever altered the landscape of college sports. While the talent pool in WBB has grown, the top teams still get many, if not most, of the top recruits. More importantly, the changes that have altered the landscape of college sports have resulted in what can best be described as “the rise of Super teams in WBB.”

The Covid Year
– While this will be the last season where 5 years of eligibility will be granted to any player that was in college during the 2019-2020 season, the extra covid year has resulted in hundreds of players putting off the inevitable decision to get on with their lives after college. For most of these players, pro ball is not a realistic option, so why not stay in college for an extra year? But for a handful of highly talented players the covid year presents an opportunity to continue their development, chase a championship, make a few NIL $$$ and better prepare themselves for the pros. Kaitlyn Chen at UConn, Kat Westbeld at ND and Te-Hina Paopao of SC were all projected as potential 1st or 2nd round picks during the past WNBA draft. By running it forward for another year in college at a top program, they are all well-positioned for a run at a championship, some NIL $$$ and a possible future in the W.

Immediate Transfer Eligibility – The process that led to the establishment of the Transfer Portal, immediate eligibility for a 1st-time transfer and now immediate eligibility no matter how many times a player transfers has dramatically reshaped college sports in general and WBB specifically. In the past, players typically elected to transfer and sit out a year in search of more playing time or they were unhappy at their current school. For each of the past 4 seasons, over 1,000 D1 WBB players entered the Transfer Portal, reaching an all-time high of 1,399 this past season. While players still transfer in search of PT and/or happiness, we are now witnessing the transfer of star players in search of championships and/or better compensation. This past season alone, Kiki Iriafen, Raegan Beers, Georgia Amore, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Timea Gardiner, Laila Phelia, Aaronette Vonleh, Talia von Oelhoffen, Deja Kelly and Janiah Barker are just some of the players that were absolute stars with their former programs who have all decided that the “grass is greener” somewhere else.

Collapse of the PAC-12 & Conference consolidation – As the P5 conferences continue to consolidate into what may eventually be the P2, the venerable Pac-12, which dates back over 100 years, closed-up shop this past season. This coming season OR, UCLA, USC & WA are headed for the Big 10; AZ, ASU, CO & UT to the Big 12; CA & Stan to the ACC, OSU & WSU were left standing when the music stopped and legendary coach Tara VanDerveer decided it was time to hang up her coach’s whistle. Lots of player movement both within and out of the former Pac 12 schools. No team got hit worse than 27-8 OSU, who ended up in the Mountain West Conference. OSU lost 8 players to the transfer portal, including 3 talented starters.

NIL & House vs NCAA Settlement – While the ability of talented college athletes to earn money based on their name, image and likeness seemed fair enough, nobody was prepared for the earthshaking upheaval that has resulted from the fast-changing rules, or lack thereof, relative to college athlete compensation. Initially designed to permit advertisers like Gatorade or State Farm to sign endorsement contracts with college athletes like Paige Bueckers or Caitlin Clark, NIL quickly devolved into NIL Alumni Collectives, agents, shadowy middlemen and bidding wars over HS recruits as well as college transfers. The recent story of Aaliyah Chavez, the #1 recruit in the Class of 2025 asking for a cool $1 million in NIL to sign a LOI has to send chills through college basketball coaches everywhere. Add in the historic $2.8 billion House vs NCAA settlement between the P5 conferences to provide compensation to former athletes and direct pay to current athletes, with no salary cap, and it’s pretty clear that the schools with the most money will eventually field the best teams.

So, my argument is that these major shifts in college sport have created, at least when it comes to WBB, six Super Teams for this coming season. I am certain the BY will voice lots of opinions on my selections, so here they are:
  • SC
  • UCLA
  • USC
  • ND
  • LSU
  • UConn
In addition to bringing in more than their share of top HS recruits, each of these teams have either secured star players in the transfer portal, including from the collapse of the Pac12, and/or taken advantage of the Covid 5th year to substantially improve their rosters. I suspect that the players on these teams will all be "fairly-compensated", however that plays out. There are probably other teams I have overlooked, which I suspect the BY will advise me about. But for the foreseeable future, when it comes to WBB, the rich will be getting much, much richer.

One final note. Of the 6 teams that I list, UConn has followed the most conventional route by far. Of the 14 players on the Huskies roster this coming season, only one did not arrive to UConn as a freshman. Kaitlyn Chen transferred from Princeton to Storrs using her 5th year of eligibility (covid year). The Ivy League does not permit a covid year, so Kaitlyn could not have played a 5th year at Princeton had she wanted to. As for Paige in her 5th year at UConn and Aubrey in her 6th, technically both would be eligible to play this year under long standing red shirt rules for injured athletes. So, before anyone asks, YES both Paige and Aubrey could conceivably return to UConn again next year to compete for a 6th and 7th season respectively. NOW THAT WOULD BE A SUPER TEAM!!!
That’s one of the best written and most thoughtful posts I’ve read in awhile. Thanks @olddude for your insights. Just yesterday I was looking at a preseason top 25 and thought, wow, the top 5 or 6 teams are really, really stacked with talent. Any of them could be national champs.
 
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When I think of super teams. Southern California is the team I think of. I think the primary way they have become a super team is through NIL. I think they have other appealing qualities. But I think NIL is mostly how they are getting it done. They are not my team. And I am hoping conference realignment and travel are what derails them. I think UConn has gone west during the regular season and laid eggs before. And I am hoping when usc has to fly to chilly penn state in January or February (example); something similar will happen.

All of this is to say. So, there are programs building super teams. But we are in the early stages of that process and we can’t be sure how it will work out.

When I read statements like this, I pause, because most comments seem anecdotal. With the exception of Watkins' outside deals, what is actually known about USC's NIL set up/offerings? Is there anything that actually confirms USC NIL collective is substantially more than what other schools are offering (e.g. South Carolina's $25k/athlete).
 
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To be fair, go back one year and both programs had strong recruiting hauls for 2022/2023/2024. I think people in general over react to an “off” recruiting year (ex potentially SC in 2025, LSU for 2024) but the reality is if you land a big class or 2, you usually don’t need to follow it up with a strong class since you have good pieces in place for the next few years.

Arguably UCONN’s weakest class ever was 2013 (only landed Saniya Chong) and they went 152-2 during her career there, primarily due to strong 2012 and 2014/2015 classes.

Similarly, South Carolina’s underwhelming 2020 class was close to winning 4 titles if not for a missed layup + a 40 bomb from Caitlin Clark.
How dare you try to keep people from panicking if they don't land a top 5 class every single year. :rolleyes:
Our problem is that we will only ave nine returners next year and only 8 if Raven doesn't choose to use her medical redshirt. We need at least a couple of bodies. Panic? No. Concern? Yes.
 
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ESPN's preseason poll of Sept. 25, 2024 has Texas ranked 5th ahead of ND & LSU.


ON3's pre-season poll of May 25, 2024 has Texas ranked 4th ahead of ND, UCLA & LSU.
They also ranked USC #1, SCar #2 & UConn #3.


Includng Texas in the top tier of this year's teams seems to be a valid opinion & a consensus among various experts.
Do you agree with Texas being included in the top tier or why not?

That ESPN isn't really a "poll", just Creme's and ESPN's clickbait. I got annoyed at my school posting a "Oh, look, we are pre-season #8" but the rating was from some one-man clown car social media site.

Will be interesting to see how the first voted pre-season poll breaks out the Top 25. Maybe a different outlook from the spring guesses now that all of the dust of portal recruiting has settled.
 
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There are several Women College Basketball Ranking sides,


For your references ...I think #6 and #7 are the same.
 
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There are several Women College Basketball Ranking sides,


For your references ...I think #6 and #7 are the same.
Don't forget ELO, and a handy link to NET:

 
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For the record, I don’t believe UConn is building super teams. Maybe they did in the past, but no longer.

I have a theory on uconn recruiting and it deserves a separate post. (Then my usc post above).

I am just speculating. But I think UConn wants to have a lot of international players on the roster, because they think those players will be easier to retain if Geno retires. They don’t want a scenario where 6 players hit the portal when he leaves the program.

Interesting.

Geno has said he prefers Euro-trained players because they spend 80% of their time practicing and have solid fundamentals, something he doesn't like to teach. So that's another possible factor.

Then there is the fact that international players can't earn NIL money.

My own feeling is that there are a lot of great players emerging internationally and Geno likes to win.
 
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Feel a little bad for Bueckers and all the pressure Geno is putting on her to break his eight year drought.
 
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Feel a little bad for Bueckers and all the pressure Geno is putting on her to break his eight year drought.

She's trying to win her 1st. That's the pressure. He's got a bunch. And she thrives on pressure and he knows that. What he is doing is taking pressure off of the new players, especially Strong.
 

KnightBridgeAZ

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Interesting.

Geno has said he prefers Euro-trained players because they spend 80% of their time practicing and have solid fundamentals, something he doesn't like to teach. So that's another possible facto

Then there is the fact that international players can't earn NIL money.

My own feeling is that there are a lot of great players emerging internationally and Geno likes to win.
For whatever its worth, on and off Adia Barnes has praised international recruits (which she has always had) for a variety of reasons.

During the Covid times, Arizona had a zoom program with the three main coaches - football and men's basketball were new - and accepted submitted questions. Mine was one they talked on - recruiting of foreign players. I would suggest that what Adia and Tommy Lloyd said was not only complimentary of the experience of working with (predominately European) foreign players, but mildly critical of the attitude of some American players and their families.
 
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Interesting.

Geno has said he prefers Euro-trained players because they spend 80% of their time practicing and have solid fundamentals, something he doesn't like to teach. So that's another possible factor.

Then there is the fact that international players can't earn NIL money.

My own feeling is that there are a lot of great players emerging internationally and Geno likes to win.
That isn't a fact. International athletes can earn NIL as Aaliyah proved last season. How they can without violating their visa is the difference.

Geno recruits international players soley for the reasons you stated. They're coming to UConn regardless of NIL opportunities elsewhere. And international players seeing what Aaliyah accomplished in her NIL deal now see it's possible to earn good NIL money if they choose UConn.

There are quite a few Canadian players who have NIL arrangements in place both in the women's and men's game. I don't understand how this inaccurate narrative continues to persist.
 

oldude

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That isn't a fact. International athletes can earn NIL as Aaliyah proved last season. How they can without violating their visa is the difference.

Geno recruits international players soley for the reasons you stated. They're coming to UConn regardless of NIL opportunities elsewhere. And international players seeing what Aaliyah accomplished in her NIL deal now see it's possible to earn good NIL money if they choose UConn.

There are quite a few Canadian players who have NIL arrangements in place both in the women's and men's game. I don't understand how this inaccurate narrative continues to persist.
The issue with international athletes and NIL has to do with their F1 visas (student visas) which prohibit most active earned US income such as appearing in commercials, responding on blogs or anything that can be interpreted as work. These restrictions do not apply to US athletes.

However, international athletes are permitted to earn NIL compensation under two scenarios. They can earn so-called “passive” income by signing an agreement with a 3rd party allowing that party to use their NIL to sign agreements on their behalf, without active participation by the international athletes themselves, i.e. jersey sales.

The second scenario allows for international athletes to earn active NIL income in their home country. This has been the option used by a number of Canadian athletes in particular, including Aaliyah Edwards.
 

packwrap

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The second scenario allows for international athletes to earn active NIL income in their home country. This has been the option used by a number of Canadian athletes in particular, including Aaliyah Edwards.
Yep, Alumni Booster Corp just now needs to hand the money bag over in the home country.:confused:
 
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The issue with international athletes and NIL has to do with their F1 visas (student visas) which prohibit most active earned US income such as appearing in commercials, responding on blogs or anything that can be interpreted as work. These restrictions do not apply to US athletes.

However, international athletes are permitted to earn NIL compensation under two scenarios. They can earn so-called “passive” income by signing an agreement with a 3rd party allowing that party to use their NIL to sign agreements on their behalf, without active participation by the international athletes themselves, i.e. jersey sales.

The second scenario allows for international athletes to earn active NIL income in their home country. This has been the option used by a number of Canadian athletes in particular, including Aaliyah Edwards.
Kamilla Cardoso also earned NIL income in Brazil.
 
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The issue with international athletes and NIL has to do with their F1 visas (student visas) which prohibit most active earned US income such as appearing in commercials, responding on blogs or anything that can be interpreted as work. These restrictions do not apply to US athletes.

However, international athletes are permitted to earn NIL compensation under two scenarios. They can earn so-called “passive” income by signing an agreement with a 3rd party allowing that party to use their NIL to sign agreements on their behalf, without active participation by the international athletes themselves, i.e. jersey sales.

The second scenario allows for international athletes to earn active NIL income in their home country. This has been the option used by a number of Canadian athletes in particular, including Aaliyah Edwards.
Yes, I'm aware of the passive and active component. The statement some make that international athletes "can't" earn NIL money isn't true however. This is my bone of contention because people continue to repeat this when this has been clarified several times.
 

jumpstart

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If any school is not sharing the profits from merchandise sales with the players they are gonna have legal problems. If UConn sold a #5 Bueckers jersey or poster, or keychain etc., she is entitled to be compensated for name and likeness. That's what started all the current mess. Now, there is some question whether UConn has to pay anything for a #5 jersey without her name on it, (but would that sell?)

The question is how are they compensated? Does Paige get a percentage based upon sales of her number. Does Azzi? Or, do they contract with the schools so that every player gets a percentage for all team jerseys and posters sold then divide it equally? It is rumored that SCar does the latter so that the lowest ranked freshman gets the same as the senior All American. Same with NIL collective money. Therein lies the notion of "salary."

Of course the real money is made of of things like endorsements that are paid by third parties, not the school. Although not paid by the schools, this is the area that worries me the most. Let's say you're an Aliyah Chavez visiting a South Carolina and are told "You will get $ 50,000 "salary" plus you could get a lot of money for endorsements - but we don't know how much? Let's say she visits LSU and is told "You won't get much "salary" but we've got folks here from Boudreax's Butt Paste and they are gonna pay you $500,000 dollars that you don't have to share with anybody." I don't care if she gets the Butt Paste endorsement but I don't want to see prearranged endorsements becoming part of the recruiting and , even scarier, the transfer process
You are going to see these endorsements have a contractual out for many reasons before it's over. I would imagine they could be tied to the University, the region, the state, and the local endorsements also. These kids won't be able to just run to more money. That will be figured out when the rest has fallen into place. There will be 1-year deals and multiple year deals depending on what is best for those who are paying for the service. If these kids have to pay back NIL money that will be a game (pun intended) changer.
 
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You are going to see these endorsements have a contractual out for many reasons before it's over. I would imagine they could be tied to the University, the region, the state, and the local endorsements also. These kids won't be able to just run to more money. That will be figured out when the rest has fallen into place. There will be 1-year deals and multiple year deals depending on what is best for those who are paying for the service. If these kids have to pay back NIL money that will be a game (pun intended) changer.
Could be, though I keep thinking that such deals aren't technically with the university for a reason. They're with some nominally separate entity. I wonder about the legality of a deal that requires a student to stay at a school even if they can fulfill the terms of the contract -- i.e. endorsing some product line -- from elsewhere. If it's legal for a university to be a party to the contract in this sense, then it would be legal for them simply to be the primary party to the contract, in which case there was no need for the collectives in the first place.
 
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You are going to see these endorsements have a contractual out for many reasons before it's over. I would imagine they could be tied to the University, the region, the state, and the local endorsements also. These kids won't be able to just run to more money. That will be figured out when the rest has fallen into place. There will be 1-year deals and multiple year deals depending on what is best for those who are paying for the service. If these kids have to pay back NIL money that will be a game (pun intended) changer.
.
We're also going to see athletes in long term deals with clauses that attach their future earnings to the NIL, like this ESPN article I read today. Paying back NIL could be the least of their concerns depending on how deals are structured.

 

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