The next dominoes (September 17 edition)

[shizzle787]

Army has thrown a wrinkle into realignment. With Pete Thamel reporting talks are getting down the tracks, I expect Army and the American to announce a marriage soon. I expect Army to join July 1st of 2025. This gives them time to clear their schedules.

With Army and Navy in the fold, the AAC will go after Air Force (and by proxy, Colorado State). Though nothing will happen for 2024, the two schools decide to make the move for July 1st of 2025. They both pay a 17 million dollar exit fee, but it is worth it for Eastern exposure, and Air Force can share a conference with the other service academies. Colorado State doesn't want to be left behind so they make the move.

The American then attempts to raid the Atlantic 10, but those schools prefer to stay in a basketball-focused league and plot for a better TV deal going forward.

At this point, Washington State and Oregon State have run out of time. They invite the remaining ten MW members to the Pac-12. This saves everyone a lot of money, and CBS and FOX transfer the TV deal (with a small bump) over to the Pac-12. The Mountain West is no more.

Seeing the writing on the wall, Gonzaga and the Big East decide to come to terms, and the Big East invites the Zags as the 12th member of the league.

The Pac-12 then reaches out to St. Mary's about an Olympic sports memberships to bolster the basketball side of the league; St. Mary's accepts.

At this point, the WCC is down to 7 members. The league responds to its departures by adding Cal Baptist, Seattle, and Grand Canyon to get back to 10 members.

These moves leave the WAC with 8 members. Though the league's geography is arguably better than before, the Utah clump does not help things. Though nobody further leaves the league, the WAC is unable to pry any Summit or Southland members. The league ultimately decides against bringing back Chicago State or dipping into the Division 2 pool.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 schools, 31 conferences, 134 FBS schools, 9 FBS conferences, 128 FCS schools, 13 FCS conferences, and 1 independent institution as of July 1st of 2025.

 

[Vowelguy]

The MW is about to get stronger with the addition of OSU and WSU. The AAC is weaker with all the new teams plus the loss of SMU.

So yes course Colorado St and will want to jump from the top G5 to an increasingly irrelevant American.

And St Mary’s to the MW/PAC?? Not in this century.

 

[shizzle787]

The MW is about to get stronger with the addition of OSU and WSU. The AAC is weaker with all the new teams plus the loss of SMU.

So yes course Colorado St and will want to jump from the top G5 to an increasingly irrelevant American.

And St Mary’s to the MW/PAC?? Not in this century.

1. AFA will do so to join a league with the other service academies. That is the reasoning for that. Also, TV coverage is better in the AAC.

2. The MW is interested in Grand Canyon right now. If St. Mary's becomes available due to a departure of Gonzaga from the WCC, they'll drop the Grand Canyon interest in a hot minute and add the Gaels.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not every school is looking to climb the ladder.

St Mary’s is in a conference with 8 other like minded schools. All private; most Catholic.
3 of their 8 opponents are within 90 minutes.
3 other opponents are in such bummer destinations as San Diego, LA, and Malibu

 

[shizzle787]

Not every school is looking to climb the ladder.

St Mary’s is in a conference with 8 other like minded schools. All private; most Catholic.
3 of their 8 opponents are within 90 minutes.
3 other opponents are in such bummer destinations as San Diego, LA, and Malibu

St. Mary’s is falling down the ladder if Gonzaga leaves by staying in the WCC.

 

[Kolumbo]

To me it would seem more likely Navy (and Memphis, USF, Temple, ECU...) leaves the AAC than Army join it.

 

[WrenchFan69]

I don't think the WCC is breaking up. Colorado State would fit in well with the merged MWC/PAC, though I know they're close with Air Force. Air Force leaving the merged MWC/PAC for the American is an interesting idea; I think they could probably put non-football sports in the WAC if they needed to. Wonder when Temple will come around and leave the American for the A10

 

[kibblesnbits]

1. AFA will do so to join a league with the other service academies. That is the reasoning for that. Also, TV coverage is better in the AAC.

2. The MW is interested in Grand Canyon right now. If St. Mary's becomes available due to a departure of Gonzaga from the WCC, they'll drop the Grand Canyon interest in a hot minute and add the Gaels

Air Force will always play Army and Navy in the Commander in Chief Trophy games so they don't need to be in the same league. In fact, making all of the CiC games a subset of the AAC competition would cheapen it. It won't happen.

To me it would seem more likely Navy (and Memphis, USF, Temple, ECU...) leaves the AAC than Army join it.

Army joining the AAC would be foolish and it absolutely make sense for Navy to leave. Navy perfected the independent scheduling technique used successfully by Army in recent years. Schedule the CiC games against the other academies, add one or two P5 games against name teams, one FCS (Army has actually had two in its last few schedules) and then as many patsies as necessary (often with a direction such as Central, Western, Southern, etc. in their name) to make a winning record and bowl eligibility probable. Navy has increasingly struggled since they can no longer dictate their schedule. Army will too.

 

[Kowalski]

The MW is about to get stronger with the addition of OSU and WSU. The AAC is weaker with all the new teams plus the loss of SMU.

So yes course Colorado St and will want to jump from the top G5 to an increasingly irrelevant American.

And St Mary’s to the MW/PAC?? Not in this century.

The MW should go bold, creative & super aggressive now! Employ the Yormark strategy & focus on undervalued basketball & expanding their footprint national.

Join with Oregon State & Washington State. Invite Uconn (all sports) & Gonzaga and balance that with Memphis & Wichita State from the American. Keep San Diego State. And as they’re positioning the conference as a dominant hoops conference, go for the kill with offers to Creighton & Marquette (& other BE schools).

I get it’s crazy talk but it would be a great landing spot for a lot of these programs. And a good immediate solution for Uconn too, with a legit potential pathway to P4.

Really, the Big East basketball schools deserve a fate like this. There’s no reason they can’t pursue a creative strategy to keep Uconn & the conference together - they can & should merge with the American and give up on their small-time vision about remaining viable without any football schools. Or don’t complain if/when schools leave for greener pastures.

 

[Vowelguy]

UConn is not joining the Mountain West.

And why exactly would the BE schools want to be in a western conference with FB schools? They've tried the latter once, and wont do that again.

 

[Rufus]

Navy is in the American for football only. That is the likely arrangement with Army too. On top of that, Army-Navy will be an annual nonconference game to keep its traditional December matchup on the schedule, so they each play an 8 game American schedule that does not include the other. What benefit does Air Force have in this type of arrangement? They have nothing to gain by joining the American.

 

[WrenchFan69]

Navy is in the American for football only. That is the likely arrangement with Army too. On top of that, Army-Navy will be an annual nonconference game to keep its traditional December matchup on the schedule, so they each play an 8 game American schedule that does not include the other. What benefit does Air Force have in this type of arrangement? They have nothing to gain by joining the American.

Air Force can play conference games against Navy and Army. Nothing says Army and Navy have to play non-conference games either, it's just required for their special post-championship slot. Ultimately seems pretty unlikely Air Force would join the AAC unless something keeps them out of the PAC/MWC merger, but it has more merit than some of the other ideas floating around.

 

[HitDog]

I think you guys are totally underestimating Shizzle. No one studies this as much as him. Though his study of scheduling probably takes time away from his conference realignment work.

 

[JohnFSilver]

army to AAC hurts. Just wish they would have a umass, UConn, army, navy, temple, usf, FAU, East Carolina league. UConn and UMass should try and recruit them out of the aac for FB only.

 

[uchusky32]

army to AAC hurts. Just wish they would have a umass, UConn, army, navy, temple, usf, FAU, East Carolina league. UConn and UMass should try and recruit them out of the aac for FB only

Who's paying for that league? East Carolina, Temple and USF will have to pay 10 mill each.

 

[Kolumbo]

army to AAC hurts. Just wish they would have a umass, UConn, army, navy, temple, usf, FAU, East Carolina league. UConn and UMass should try and recruit them out of the aac for FB only.

The only thing that needs to happen is the AAC adds Army, UConn and UMass for football only. The AAC is really struggling. Why not just make the move to add the Northeast and roll the dice.

UConn - fb
UMass - fb
Army - fb
Navy - fb
Temple
ECU
USF
FAU

Charlotte
Memphis
UAB
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
North Texas
UTSA

 

[uconnyankee]

The MW should go bold, creative & super aggressive now! Employ the Yormark strategy & focus on undervalued basketball & expanding their footprint national.

Join with Oregon State & Washington State. Invite Uconn (all sports) & Gonzaga and balance that with Memphis & Wichita State from the American. Keep San Diego State. And as they’re positioning the conference as a dominant hoops conference, go for the kill with offers to Creighton & Marquette (& other BE schools).

I get it’s crazy talk but it would be a great landing spot for a lot of these programs. And a good immediate solution for Uconn too, with a legit potential pathway to P4.

Really, the Big East basketball schools deserve a fate like this. There’s no reason they can’t pursue a creative strategy to keep Uconn & the conference together - they can & should merge with the American and give up on their small-time vision about remaining viable without any football schools. Or don’t complain if/when schools leave for greener pastures.

Big East isn’t joining a football league. I’d be shocked if they went that route again.

 

[uconnyankee]

Daughter goes to JMU. Great program, great history, and huge support. Very much a program on the rise.

Headed down for parents weekend where they play So Alabama. Game is almost sold out with tickets on line for $100-$140.

Amazing what winning games can do for a fan base.

 

[WrenchFan69]

The only thing that needs to happen is the AAC adds Army, UConn and UMass for football only. The AAC is really struggling. Why not just make the move to add the Northeast and roll the dice.

UConn - fb
UMass - fb
Army - fb
Navy - fb
Temple
ECU
USF
FAU

Charlotte
Memphis
UAB
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
North Texas
UTSA

I would be pretty good with that. Alleviates some of Army's troubles too as they're scheduled so far out, but they play us and UMass pretty much every year in that span. Couple fewer games to reschedule/cancel.

 

[Kolumbo]

I would be pretty good with that. Alleviates some of Army's troubles too as they're scheduled so far out, but they play us and UMass pretty much every year in that span. Couple fewer games to reschedule/cancel.

It would be a very competitive conference especially where UConn is at right now. UConn would actually have a chance at a conference championship in the not too distant future. UConn would play in MA, NY, MD, PA, NC, FL, TN, AL, LA, OK, TX. Both UConn and UMass have potential given the opportunity. The AAC is falling to the bottom of the G5. This would add a few independents and get the conference into the Northeast. So it would be football only, so what. Football drives the bus and the AAC is a trash basketball conference anyway. This would be a win all around.

 

[Vowelguy]

The only thing that needs to happen is the AAC adds Army, UConn and UMass for football only.

Since 2016, UConn has not been in the bottom 20 just one time. Why would that be attractive to the AAC?
I know that mistakes were made with bad hiring, but the record is the record. If Mora can string together a few good years then ok, but right now? Hell no is the AAC going to be interested.

And if the AAC is going to allow teams to leave and then return in FB only, why doesnt Temple leave for the A-10?
Or FAU?

 

[Kolumbo]

Since 2016, UConn has not been in the bottom 20 just one time. Why would that be attractive to the AAC?
I know that mistakes were made with bad hiring, but the record is the record. If Mora can string together a few good years then ok, but right now? Hell no is the AAC going to be interested.

And if the AAC is going to allow teams to leave and then return in FB only, why doesnt Temple leave for the A-10?
Or FAU?

So you think one of the worst G5 conferences is too good for UConn. I think the bigger picture says otherwise. The AAC would be buying low, very low. Huge upside. Smart move.

 

[Vowelguy]

So you think one of the worst G5 conferences is too good for UConn. I think the bigger picture says otherwise. The AAC would be buying low, very low. Huge upside. Smart move.

You buy low because you want to get in while it’s still available (at that price).

Even if UConn has several good seasons, who’s gonna be banging on the door? The SunBelt? The AAC can afford to wait.

So you think one of the worst G5 conferences i

And for the record, the AAC does stink, but it’s still better than the MAC and CUSA.

 

[Kolumbo]

You buy low because you want to get in while it’s still available (at that price).

Even if UConn has several good seasons, who’s gonna be banging on the door? The SunBelt? The AAC can afford to wait.


And for the record, the AAC does stink, but it’s still better than the MAC and CUSA.

Adding Army, UConn and UMass could be a potential boon for all parties. I'm not saying anyone is banging our doors down. Just that it could be a good move for the AAC, which happens to be marginally better than the MAC. For now. I mean, it went from being "P6" to showcasing Charlotte vs. UAB, no disrespect to the new members from C-USA.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Even if UConn has several good seasons, who’s gonna be banging on the door? The SunBelt? The AAC can afford to wait.


And for the record, the AAC does stink, but it’s still better than the MAC and CUSA.

From a football prospective
its also better any conference not the MW . Plus it still has much better and emerging markets and has potential to become number 1
Tulane New Orleans Cotton Bowl Champs and an equal to the alleged power teams we play
A close look at the adds
FA greater Miami obviously a Team in a great area looking to move up that’s a great add.
Charlotte Charlotte the power teams share. Raleigh yet Charlotte is a great city another good potential
UTSA. The only college in the 7 th largest city in the country . 2 largest in Texas . A sleeper
UNT The largest and only public college in Dallas Fort Worth.
Plus old faithful
Memphis Memphis West Tenn
Navy National Brands
Army National Brands
Temple Philly
Fairly established programs
ECU
Tulsa - Tulsa
UAB. Birmingham
Rice Houston
You can hate Aresco and he sucks at basketball but given the hand he was dealt he massages to make lemonade from lemons
The only threat to the AAC is if OSU and WSU manage to resurrect the PAC by a merger with the MW and AAC
Adding 8 from each conference destroying the top 2 G5 conferences and claiming P 4 1/2 status
If I where the Commissioners of all three that’s plan A