The next dominoes (October 11 edition)

[dayooper]

I think we'll finally have some clarity on some of the bigger moves soon. The Big 12 is trying to get their TV media deals wrapped up ASAP. According a legit source:



The Big 12 is going to be well ahead of the Pac 12 on the media deals. Remember everyone was wondering whether moving to the Big 12 would be worth it for UConn? It's pretty obvious it would have been. The floor appears to be 30M / school for tier 1 / 2. With another 7-8MM in T3 + NCAA tournament + Bowls + Playoff money meaning an annual distribution of around 50M.

If it’s $50 million per year with potential increases, you just might get the 4 corner schools to bolt.

 

[Rufus]

I wonder if part of the B1G strategy is to have the 4 corner schools bolt for the Big 12 first?

Then it doesn’t look like the B1G destroyed the conference if it swoops in and rescues Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal after the fact.

 

[Iceman03]

I don't think the 4 corner schools leave prior to the league being in crisis mode, as of now, it is not. I was thinking this week, I'm impressed with the Big 12s strategy, they are sort of like the 1st person being layed off from a struggling company, they have the 1st opportunity to land another job in the company before things get worse. So The Big 12 has, and is absorbing schools the PIG2 have no interest in. Once the most likely to dissolve of the Power 5, now they are actually in a better position than the ACC or PAC, as the PIG2 is still eying their prime properties.

 

[Kolumbo]

I don't think the 4 corner schools leave prior to the league being in crisis mode, as of now, it is not. I was thinking this week, I'm impressed with the Big 12s strategy, they are sort of like the 1st person being layed off from a struggling company, they have the 1st opportunity to land another job in the company before things get worse. So The Big 12 has, and is absorbing schools the PIG2 have no interest in. Once the most likely to dissolve of the Power 5, now they are actually in a better position than the ACC or PAC, as the PIG2 is still eying their prime properties.

And I'll bet programs like Va Tech, NC State, Louisville are thinking they'd rather be available for a Big 12 invite today than being in their ACC bubble with no other options.

I wasn't interested in the Big 12 but now that conferences are going coast to coast, it might not be bad for UCONN with Cinci, WVU, and maybe a Temple or other eastern program. In theory. Great basketball and football.

 

[Slasher]

And I'll bet programs like Va Tech, NC State, Louisville are thinking they'd rather be available for a Big 12 invite today than being in their ACC bubble with no other options.

I wasn't interested in the Big 12 but now that conferences are going coast to coast, it might not be bad for UCONN with Cinci, WVU, and maybe a Temple or other eastern program. In theory. Great basketball and football.

Yep I agree. Those bubble teams who are stuck in a 10 year+ mediocre ACC deal would like to have $50MM a year. I do think the ACC Is going to survive regardless though. I think there's going to be 4 power conferences. The Big 12 is setting itself up as the clear #3. When the SEC eventually expands to 20 and the B1G ends up at 20 it will be very interesting to see what's left.

If you assume 4 x 20
B1G 16 + 4
SEC + 4
Big 12 + 8
ACC + ??

Looks like the B1G is committed to going west for their 4, Stanford, Oregon, Washington seem like locks.
SEC will likely stay east -- UNC/Virginia would be the top two on their list. I think the other two could be very interesting. UNC may require Duke, leaving just one more spot. Who gets #20? Florida State? Clemson? My money would be on Florida State. FSU is still a marquee brand, is in very highly populated state (compared to South Carolina.)

If that happens now what? Does Clemson, Miami, NC State try to rebuild the ACC? Or would they rather be in the Big 12 with OSU, Kansas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Colorado, etc. Big 12 + 4 corner schools + Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Miami would be really compelling conference. Of course the B1G # 20 is very interesting too if Notre Dame continues to say no. Would they get priority over the SEC? Depends on the school I'd guess.

Regardless, the Big 12 or the ACC will have spots in this scenario for UConn. Either one would be a better long term home than independence + Big East.

 

[Hoophound]

The B12 commissioner says he intends to market the conference heavily using pop culture, celebrities etc and be “the cool conference”. He started the push in NYC this week. We should be chasing the B12 again.

 

[billybud]

I have always thought that the media demand was for more marquee games...

Alabama versus Tennessee had 17 million warching....today's Tennessee vs Tennessee State will be nada.

The move will be toward more P5 and uppper G5 match ups, less FCS and lower G5.

 

[Kolumbo]

Yep I agree. Those bubble teams who are stuck in a 10 year+ mediocre ACC deal would like to have $50MM a year. I do think the ACC Is going to survive regardless though. I think there's going to be 4 power conferences. The Big 12 is setting itself up as the clear #3. When the SEC eventually expands to 20 and the B1G ends up at 20 it will be very interesting to see what's left.

If you assume 4 x 20
B1G 16 + 4
SEC + 4
Big 12 + 8
ACC + ??

Looks like the B1G is committed to going west for their 4, Stanford, Oregon, Washington seem like locks.
SEC will likely stay east -- UNC/Virginia would be the top two on their list. I think the other two could be very interesting. UNC may require Duke, leaving just one more spot. Who gets #20? Florida State? Clemson? My money would be on Florida State. FSU is still a marquee brand, is in very highly populated state (compared to South Carolina.)

If that happens now what? Does Clemson, Miami, NC State try to rebuild the ACC? Or would they rather be in the Big 12 with OSU, Kansas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Colorado, etc. Big 12 + 4 corner schools + Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Miami would be really compelling conference. Of course the B1G # 20 is very interesting too if Notre Dame continues to say no. Would they get priority over the SEC? Depends on the school I'd guess.

Regardless, the Big 12 or the ACC will have spots in this scenario for UConn. Either one would be a better long term home than independence + Big East.

I think the ACC would like to fold the map and be bi-coastal, partner with Cal, Stanford, Arizonas, Oreegon, Washington, but that really is not a workable layout and the ACC is going to be late to the smorgasbord anyway.

I keep thinking how I believed the PAC 12 was on terra firma being on the west coast but the greed has blown it all up. That's San Andreas for ya.

 

[don356]

All of this tv chatter about the Pac12 tv options being heavily based in streaming is not a good sign for them. The tilt of their product to west coast time is not a winner in all of this realignment.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

All of this tv chatter about the Pac12 tv options being heavily based in streaming is not a good sign for them. The tilt of their product to west coast time is not a winner in all of this realignment.

Actually they do have the advantage of being Pacific time zone for linear TV because of the dearth of live sports programming at that time of day. If they can't get linear TV traction, then that's the big headline.

 

[billybud]

I kind of like it that the ACC is the only P5 conference with all teams in the same time zone....

The only P5 conference with all teams in the east...no teams west of the Mississippi. The ACC is the eastern conference.

 

[SoFla Steve]

Don't be surprised if the SEC expands by adding a couple of ACC members. The universities will pay what they have to to leave the ACC. With improved FB and men's BB teams, UConn has a decent shot of getting into ACC.

Once again, there is no fee to get out of the GoR. The exit fee is to get out of the ACC only. You can't take your game rights with you (until 2036) when you leave so you have nothing of value to offer the conference you want to join. That's why the GoR is so effective.

Sankey won't challenge it because a court battle would be long and costly. Also, it's a battle he likely would lose. From last July . . .

From Brian Geisinger of ACCSports.com, "Speaking from Atlanta, though, Sankey mentioned that his conference has no plans to meddle with teams that are in conferences with strong Grant of Rights deals, like the ACC."

If the GoR can be defeated before 2036, it's got to happen from within -- an agreement between ESPN and the ACC.