The next dominoes (October 11 edition)

[shizzle787]

Between two bits of information coming out this week (Rick Neuheisel mentioning on his ESPN show that his sources are suggesting to him that Oregon and Washington are close to moving to the B1G, and Matt Brown mentioning that people in the know told him those two make sense financially for the league), I think it's time for another dominoes.

The B1G expands to 18 by adding Oregon and Washington. Cal and Stanford are not offered as they are dilutive financially.

At this point, those two are looking for the next best thing and it is not in a quickly sinking Pac-12. They call the Big 12 who invites them as well as Colorado and Arizona. It has been suggested that the Big 12 should not go past 16 for financial reasons so Arizona State and Utah are left behind.

The Pac-12 is now sitting at 4 members: ASU, Utah, WSU, and OSU. The league still has autonomy status so it decides to raid the MW. The Pac-12 invites Fresno State and SDSU to get back into California. The next addition is UNLV to get into Nevada. Though their star is fading, Boise State is offered and accepts. In order to get back into Colorado, the league invites both CSU and Air Force, and they both accept. To round out the 12 league members, the league invites New Mexico and Hawaii for football-only and Gonzaga for Olympic sports. SMU declines an invite as the $10 million exit fee is not worth jumping westward to a league making a similar yearly per-school payout.

The Mountain West at this point is down to 4 members: they invite NMSU and UTEP who both accept. The league attempts to sway more C-USA schools but are unable to do so due to geography. The league has to settle for 4 FCS call-ups: NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State.

It should be noted that the SEC, ACC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt stand pat during and after these moves.

C-USA is then back down to 8 members. They decide to add two to get back to 10 members (assuming Kennesaw State joins): Central Arkansas and North Alabama.

This leaves FBS football with 140 schools.

The next move is unexpected: the Southern adds the last two remaining A-SUN football schools (Austin Peay and EKU). Austin Peay also happens to have a decent basketball program which the Southern likes.

On the other side of the country, the WCC responds to the departure of Gonzaga by adding Grand Canyon and Seattle, both of the WAC.

Coming back east, the A-SUN is down to 7 members and the Big South has 9. This is where some other leagues get involved. The OVC grows some muscles and invites Lipscomb who accepts. That league is now at 11 teams. The Horizon leagues spots its opportunity and invites Bellarmine to get back to 12 schools.

The Big South see its opportunity to strengthen and eliminate a rival and invites Queens (NC), Jacksonville, FGCU, UNF, and Stetson to get to 14 schools.

Let's refresh what we have out west: The Pac-12 has stabilized at 12 members as has the MW at 10 members. The WCC is also now at 10 members. The other three western leagues are the Summit (8), Big Sky (8), and WAC (9).

Because of geography, the WAC is able to convince Northern Arizona to join to get the league to 10 members and 8 football schools.

Normally, I would not go down one of these Division 2 call-up rabbit holes, but due to geography I don't have a choice. The first move is the Summit adding Augustana, a Division 2 school from South Dakota. That gets the league to 9. It decides to stay put.

The Big Sky is now going to need to expand. The league is down to 7 members and 9 football members (two are affiliates). Realistically, the league need to add two to three members. EWU is not going to want WWU or CWU in the league so the options at the Division 2 level are going to be slim. The league decides to add Chico State and Cal Poly Humboldt, both Division 2 members out of California to get back to 9 members. The final addition is Alaska-Fairbanks. The league settles with 10 members.

The final move is Le Moyne (D2-NY) to the NEC.

This results in a net of 367 schools in Division 1, 140 schools in the FBS, 31 conferences (down from 32), and a school in every state.

The only conferences with less than 10 members will be:
Ivy (8)
MEAC (8)
Summit (9)
America East (9)

 

[metsfan2323]

Between two bits of information coming out this week (Rick Neuheisel mentioning on his ESPN show that his sources are suggesting to him that Oregon and Washington are close to moving to the B1G, and Matt Brown mentioning that people in the know told him those two make sense financially for the league), I think it's time for another dominoes.

The B1G expands to 18 by adding Oregon and Washington. Cal and Stanford are not offered as they are dilutive financially.

At this point, those two are looking for the next best thing and it is not in a quickly sinking Pac-12. They call the Big 12 who invites them as well as Colorado and Arizona. It has been suggested that the Big 12 should not go past 16 for financial reasons so Arizona State and Utah are left behind.

The Pac-12 is now sitting at 4 members: ASU, Utah, WSU, and OSU. The league still has autonomy status so it decides to raid the MW. The Pac-12 invites Fresno State and SDSU to get back into California. The next addition is UNLV to get into Nevada. Though their star is fading, Boise State is offered and accepts. In order to get back into Colorado, the league invites both CSU and Air Force, and they both accept. To round out the 12 league members, the league invites New Mexico and Hawaii for football-only and Gonzaga for Olympic sports. SMU declines an invite as the $10 million exit fee is not worth jumping westward to a league making a similar yearly per-school payout.

The Mountain West at this point is down to 4 members: they invite NMSU and UTEP who both accept. The league attempts to sway more C-USA schools but are unable to do so due to geography. The league has to settle for 4 FCS call-ups: NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State.

It should be noted that the SEC, ACC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt stand pat during and after these moves.

C-USA is then back down to 8 members. They decide to add two to get back to 10 members (assuming Kennesaw State joins): Central Arkansas and North Alabama.

This leaves FBS football with 140 schools.

The next move is unexpected: the Southern adds the last two remaining A-SUN football schools (Austin Peay and EKU). Austin Peay also happens to have a decent basketball program which the Southern likes.

On the other side of the country, the WCC responds to the departure of Gonzaga by adding Grand Canyon and Seattle, both of the WAC.

Coming back east, the A-SUN is down to 7 members and the Big South has 9. This is where some other leagues get involved. The OVC grows some muscles and invites Lipscomb who accepts. That league is now at 11 teams. The Horizon leagues spots its opportunity and invites Bellarmine to get back to 12 schools.

The Big South see its opportunity to strengthen and eliminate a rival and invites Queens (NC), Jacksonville, FGCU, UNF, and Stetson to get to 14 schools.

Let's refresh what we have out west: The Pac-12 has stabilized at 12 members as has the MW at 10 members. The WCC is also now at 10 members. The other three western leagues are the Summit (8), Big Sky (8), and WAC (9).

Because of geography, the WAC is able to convince Northern Arizona to join to get the league to 10 members and 8 football schools.

Normally, I would not go down one of these Division 2 call-up rabbit holes, but due to geography I don't have a choice. The first move is the Summit adding Augustana, a Division 2 school from South Dakota. That gets the league to 9. It decides to stay put.

The Big Sky is now going to need to expand. The league is down to 7 members and 9 football members (two are affiliates). Realistically, the league need to add two to three members. EWU is not going to want WWU or CWU in the league so the options at the Division 2 level are going to be slim. The league decides to add Chico State and Cal Poly Humboldt, both Division 2 members out of California to get back to 9 members. The final addition is Alaska-Fairbanks. The league settles with 10 members.

The final move is Le Moyne (D2-NY) to the NEC.

This results in a net of 367 schools in Division 1, 140 schools in the FBS, 31 conferences (down from 32), and a school in every state.

The only conferences with less than 10 members will be:
Ivy (8)
MEAC (8)
Summit (9)
America East (9)

It will be interesting to see who gets the upper hand when the remnants of the PAC12 and B12 square off raiding each other. Maybe they agree to leave each other alone and the PAC 12 just adds from the MWC. BYU is the one B12 school that geographically makes more sense in the PAC 12. I'll be rooting for the PAC 12 with the hopes that it forces the B12 to look east for expansion. Maybe UCONN could replace BYU in the B12.

 

[bobbyinaz]

It will be interesting to see who gets the upper hand when the remnants of the PAC12 and B12 square off raiding each other. Maybe they agree to leave each other alone and the PAC 12 just adds from the MWC. BYU is the one B12 school that geographically makes more sense in the PAC 12. I'll be rooting for the PAC 12 with the hopes that it forces the B12 to look east for expansion. Maybe UCONN could replace BYU in the B12.

As it always does, TV dollars will determine the outcome.

The ESPN/PAC exclusive window closed with no deal and reports are out that the offer from ESPN was $160MM/yr for the current 10 team conference.

If $16MM/yr is the best offer the schools will see as members of the PAC then you have to think they will start wondering what the B12 dollars would be.

Also, by adding schools west of its current footprint the B12 would offer a TV partner that late night window that ESPN has marketed the hell out of with the PAC.

While the B12 doesn't have huge national brands, it's current makeup with the recent adds and then potentially picking off a handful of PAC schools, IMO makes it the likely winner.

 

[Rufus]

I don’t think Stanford and Cal go to the Big 12. They are ranked too high academically to want to associate with Big 12 institutions. If the PAC collapses and the B1G does not send an invite, I think the Bay Area schools go independent.

 

[metsfan2323]

While the B12 doesn't have huge national brands, it's current makeup with the recent adds and then potentially picking off a handful of PAC schools, IMO makes it the likely winner.

I agree that the B12 is the likely winner but I don't think its a slam dunk. Obviously it will come down to whether or not the 8 remaining PAC 12 schools can stick together.

 

[uchusky32]

I agree that the B12 is the likely winner but I don't think its a slam dunk. Obviously it will come down to whether or not the 8 remaining PAC 12 schools can stick together.

8 schools sticking together. Is like a crime ring sticking together when the heat is on them. Last one gets all the charges. First one to leave gets best deal.

 

[metsfan2323]

8 schools sticking together. Is like a crime ring sticking together when the heat is on them. Last one gets all the charges. First one to leave gets best deal.

Yeah, I guess it many ways it will be ESPN's decision whether or not they stick together.

 

[ScottVib]

Reading into the Big Ten & Big XII commissioners various comments the last day or two.

1.) I don't think the Big Ten is going to do anything imminent
2.) The Big XII is talking and posturing trying to show strength while talking with Fox & ESPN but doesn't seem likely to get anything done themselves in their early window.

If the Big Ten doesn't move on anyone, the Pac-12 schools don't move on. Big XII schools aren't bound by a GOR if the Big XII doesn't lock them in on a new TV deal. Networks would have the ability to heavily influence the deal and composition of the western league... and I think that late evening time-zone will carry some value, particularly to ESPN. If Washington and Oregon aren't able to escape, then I still think there's a good chance the the Pac-12 remnants are the winners and pick off the Big XII brands/markets they want after the GOR on the current Big XII deal expires. If Washington/Oregon leave then a few of the corner schools may be able to be peeled off by the Big XII... but I still don't see Cal/Stanford joining a league that runs all the way to Orlando and Cincinnati, nor do I see them (the schools) holding their nose enough to align with BYU.

One of the two conferences is going to get a solid deal. The other one with the leftovers is going to get something less.

The potential Big Sky moves are pie in the sky... the Alaskan schools have major funding issues in their athletic department, in that scenario EWU won't have the stroke to keep WWU out. A WAC without football (and also without Grand Canyon) is unlikely to pull Northern Arizona away... although I don't think the WCC wants anything to do with Grand Canyon and it's alignment with for profit education, particularly given the distance away from the current WCC footprint.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

ASU has a better football tradition and a much better market than U of A
They’re considered co equals by the state in. funding and in some ratings ASU is higher.
The addition of the poly technology campus at ASU
andPhoenix becoming a
major tech center make ASU a. Better choice
I wouldn’t be shocked if the B1G took ASU

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Don't be surprised if the SEC expands by adding a couple of ACC members. The universities will pay what they have to to leave the ACC. With improved FB and men's BB teams, UConn has a decent shot of getting into ACC.

 

[Kolumbo]

ASU has a better football tradition and a much better market than U of A
They’re considered co equals by the state in. funding and in some ratings ASU is higher.
The addition of the poly technology campus at ASU
andPhoenix becoming a
major tech center make ASU a. Better choice
I wouldn’t be shocked if the B1G took ASU

ASU & UCONN to the B1G!!! For Hockey!!

 

[dayooper]

ASU has a better football tradition and a much better market than U of A
They’re considered co equals by the state in. funding and in some ratings ASU is higher.
The addition of the poly technology campus at ASU
andPhoenix becoming a
major tech center make ASU a. Better choice
I wouldn’t be shocked if the B1G took ASU

I agree with this. If the Big10 gets 4 more (with an Amazon deal), I think it Washington and Oregon are in and Stanford close behind. The last spot comes down to Cal and ASU. I have heard that the Big10 does like ASU.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

UCONN to the B1G!!! For Hockey!!

Only for hockey, IMHO highly unlikely for our Huskies. Hockey East, geographically small and annually a top conference, is perfect for UConn now and will be should a nnACC invitation eventually evolve. Now if a B1G all-sports invitation ever develops, buh bye HE.

 

[Kolumbo]

Only for hockey, IMHO highly unlikely for our Huskies. Hockey East, geographically small and annually a top conference, is perfect for UConn now and will be should a nnACC invitation eventually evolve. Now if a B1G all-sports invitation ever develops, buh bye HE.

absolutely. I just meant that hockey would close the deal for UCONN, tongue in cheek. Otherwise UCONN belongs in Hockey East. B1G only has 7 hockey programs

 

[Ha Who]

Don't be surprised if the SEC expands by adding a couple of ACC members. The universities will pay what they have to to leave the ACC. With improved FB and men's BB teams, UConn has a decent shot of getting into ACC.

Are you familiar with rule number 1? I suppose even the curse of the Bambino ended

 

[billybud]

Don't be surprised if the SEC expands by adding a couple of ACC members. The universities will pay what they have to to leave the ACC. With improved FB and men's BB teams, UConn has a decent shot of getting into ACC.

If it was just a matter of paying...like $300 or so million...maybe.

But the GOR doesn't have a pay out mechanism...and the ACC does not have to sell back the media rights that they own.

The ACC learned, after Maryland paid out on an Exit fee, that a "pay out" alone wouldn't give stability...and the GOR was formed.

For now, the ACC can stand and watch conference changes swirl around them and their GOR bubble.


But...you are also unable to leave the bubble if you would wish too....like a force field in a bad sci-fi movie.

 

[How Sway?!]

Delaware moving up to FBS would be big for us.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Delaware moving up to FBS would be big for us.

Why big?

 

[uconntailgater]

I hope the B1G adds two or more PAC teams and enters into a media rights contract with Amazon. Amazon wold need content which could potentially mean Thursday or Friday night games with the B1G. That could make scheduling B1G teams a little easier for us.

 

[Kolumbo]

Delaware moving up to FBS would be big for us.

I was just looking at the Colonial yesterday and the programs who could move: Delaware, Maine, Nova, William & Mary, Albany, Stonybrook, Towson. I mean, If Sam Kennesaw can do it, why not these guys.

 

[CL82]

I was just looking at the Colonial yesterday and the programs who could move: Delaware, Maine, Nova, William & Mary, Albany, Stonybrook, Towson. I mean, If Sam Kennesaw can do it, why not these guys.

Coincidentally there are mumblings about Delaware going to FBS this morning.

 

[uconntailgater]

If Delaware does move up to FBS I wonder which conference it would be? You have to wonder that Temple can’t be happy in the new AAC. Perhaps Temple and Delaware to the MAC?

 

[HuskyDogArt]

Between two bits of information coming out this week (Rick Neuheisel mentioning on his ESPN show that his sources are suggesting to him that Oregon and Washington are close to moving to the B1G, and Matt Brown mentioning that people in the know told him those two make sense financially for the league), I think it's time for another dominoes.

The B1G expands to 18 by adding Oregon and Washington. Cal and Stanford are not offered as they are dilutive financially.

At this point, those two are looking for the next best thing and it is not in a quickly sinking Pac-12. They call the Big 12 who invites them as well as Colorado and Arizona. It has been suggested that the Big 12 should not go past 16 for financial reasons so Arizona State and Utah are left behind.

The Pac-12 is now sitting at 4 members: ASU, Utah, WSU, and OSU. The league still has autonomy status so it decides to raid the MW. The Pac-12 invites Fresno State and SDSU to get back into California. The next addition is UNLV to get into Nevada. Though their star is fading, Boise State is offered and accepts. In order to get back into Colorado, the league invites both CSU and Air Force, and they both accept. To round out the 12 league members, the league invites New Mexico and Hawaii for football-only and Gonzaga for Olympic sports. SMU declines an invite as the $10 million exit fee is not worth jumping westward to a league making a similar yearly per-school payout.

The Mountain West at this point is down to 4 members: they invite NMSU and UTEP who both accept. The league attempts to sway more C-USA schools but are unable to do so due to geography. The league has to settle for 4 FCS call-ups: NDSU, SDSU, Montana, and Montana State.

It should be noted that the SEC, ACC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt stand pat during and after these moves.

C-USA is then back down to 8 members. They decide to add two to get back to 10 members (assuming Kennesaw State joins): Central Arkansas and North Alabama.

This leaves FBS football with 140 schools.

The next move is unexpected: the Southern adds the last two remaining A-SUN football schools (Austin Peay and EKU). Austin Peay also happens to have a decent basketball program which the Southern likes.

On the other side of the country, the WCC responds to the departure of Gonzaga by adding Grand Canyon and Seattle, both of the WAC.

Coming back east, the A-SUN is down to 7 members and the Big South has 9. This is where some other leagues get involved. The OVC grows some muscles and invites Lipscomb who accepts. That league is now at 11 teams. The Horizon leagues spots its opportunity and invites Bellarmine to get back to 12 schools.

The Big South see its opportunity to strengthen and eliminate a rival and invites Queens (NC), Jacksonville, FGCU, UNF, and Stetson to get to 14 schools.

Let's refresh what we have out west: The Pac-12 has stabilized at 12 members as has the MW at 10 members. The WCC is also now at 10 members. The other three western leagues are the Summit (8), Big Sky (8), and WAC (9).

Because of geography, the WAC is able to convince Northern Arizona to join to get the league to 10 members and 8 football schools.

Normally, I would not go down one of these Division 2 call-up rabbit holes, but due to geography I don't have a choice. The first move is the Summit adding Augustana, a Division 2 school from South Dakota. That gets the league to 9. It decides to stay put.

The Big Sky is now going to need to expand. The league is down to 7 members and 9 football members (two are affiliates). Realistically, the league need to add two to three members. EWU is not going to want WWU or CWU in the league so the options at the Division 2 level are going to be slim. The league decides to add Chico State and Cal Poly Humboldt, both Division 2 members out of California to get back to 9 members. The final addition is Alaska-Fairbanks. The league settles with 10 members.

The final move is Le Moyne (D2-NY) to the NEC.

This results in a net of 367 schools in Division 1, 140 schools in the FBS, 31 conferences (down from 32), and a school in every state.

The only conferences with less than 10 members will be:
Ivy (8)
MEAC (8)
Summit (9)
America East (9)

Alaska-Fairbanks? I'd think Simon Fraser (BC) - which is a NCAA school (IIRC) - would join before UAF. Think any D3 colleges would join the D2?

 

[ScottVib]

If Delaware does move up to FBS I wonder which conference it would be? You have to wonder that Temple can’t be happy in the new AAC. Perhaps Temple and Delaware to the MAC?

Temple would go independent before they’d go MAC and even then they aren’t going anywhere if they don’t lose a significant chunk of money from the current AAC payout. (The MAC pays approximately the AACs basketball payout as it’s payout for everything)

 

[Slasher]

I think we'll finally have some clarity on some of the bigger moves soon. The Big 12 is trying to get their TV media deals wrapped up ASAP. According a legit source:



The Big 12 is going to be well ahead of the Pac 12 on the media deals. Remember everyone was wondering whether moving to the Big 12 would be worth it for UConn? It's pretty obvious it would have been. The floor appears to be 30M / school for tier 1 / 2. With another 7-8MM in T3 + NCAA tournament + Bowls + Playoff money meaning an annual distribution of around 50M.