The next dominoes (July 6 edition)

[shizzle787]

I'm letting the Marchand Ourand Podcast be my guide this week. John Ourand thinks if there is a Pac-12 deal, it should be wrapped up some time around Labor Day.

With that being said, I predict the Pac-12 to stay together and add SDSU and SMU. Oregon and Washington don't have a B1G lifeline and will keep the league together. I don't know how much or with who the TV contract will be but I do think SDSU and SMU will get severely reduced shares to keep the remaining ten at least competitive with the next conference up.

The Big 12 ultimately decides to stay at 12. Unable to grab any P5 institutions, the Big 12 presidents decide against adding UConn, Memphis, or Gonzaga.

Side programming note: with the addition of USC and UCLA, the B1G decides to go to a 22-game basketball schedule and shelve the Gavitt Games.

The conference next up is the Big East. With the Pac-12 and Big 12 both out on Gonzaga, the Big East has the leverage to get the Zags at the price they want. The Big East invites Gonzaga, but the latter has to pay the league travel subsidies equal to 10% of their TV distribution. The league keeps the 20-game conference schedule and splits into an east division and west division for scheduling purposes.

Following the departure of SMU, the American is down to 13 football schools. After some internal discussion, the league ultimately adds Georgia State over Texas State to get back to 14. GSU gets the league into Atlanta, and the program gets a pay raise and more visibility.

The Mountain West is up next. Although staying at 11 appeals to the league, getting into Texas with Texas State appeals more. The MW invites Texas State who accepts.

The Sun Belt is now down to 12 members. They ultimately decides to stand pat as ESPN does not cut their per school payout.

After the departure of Gonzaga, the WCC decides to get back to 10 members. The league invites Seattle and Grand Canyon.

After the departures of Seattle and Grand Canyon, the WAC is down to 9 members. This is the WAC we are talking about- a cockroach that can't be killed. The remaining composition of the league includes 5 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools, and 1 California school. This geography entices a certain school in Oklahoma who sees an opportunity to upgrade the level at which its basketball program plays- Oral Roberts. The WAC invites Oral Roberts to stabilize at 10 members.

The next move is one that has been hypothesized: Bellarmine to the Horizon. Bellarmine is in its last year as a transitional member and would be a full Division 1 member by the time it joins the league. The Horizon is now at 12 schools.

The final league on the docket is the Summit. Down to 8 members it would prefer to add at least one school. However, they have a problem: nobody in a Division 1 conference is interested. They ask around the Division 2 Minnesota schools, and they all decline. This leaves the league with a choice: Chicago State or Augustana. The league ultimately invites Augustana to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 363 members, 134 FBS schools, 129 FBS schools, 1 independent, and 32 conferences as of July 1, 2025.

 

[uconnyankee]

That’s a loooong way of saying UConn gets hosed!

 

[shizzle787]

That’s a loooong way of saying UConn gets hosed!

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

The AD won't make it 10 years at bargain basement media payments.

 

[Bongo Fury]

AAC getting a pay raise? Heard they are interested in North Dakota State.

 

[shizzle787]

AAC getting a pay raise? Heard they are interested in North Dakota State.

Georgia State, not the league as a whole. The AAC will not add an FCS program.

 

[uconnyankee]

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

Does that really excite people?

 

[shizzle787]

Does that really excite people?

Yes. People like the Big East. In football, if we are able to continue scheduling P5 teams at home, we will be fine.

 

[Wildgopher]

Yes. People like the Big East. In football, if we are able to continue scheduling P5 teams at home, we will be fine.

It doesn't excite me. I think that would really suck for the Athletic department and I personally really want UConn in a P-5 league ASAP.

 

[Jimdish255]

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

So this was really the thrust of your thread and the first post was the backfill. Just got the order mixed up.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

Gonzaga isn't worth more than the top half teams in the Big East, there would be no pay raise for adding them (except for Gonzaga). Fees might go down with the additional Pacific time zone games, which are worth less. I don't think they'd be added, thankfully.

ACC will likely look to expand and poach B12 teams before it implodes. UConn could get a lifeline then. I still think that's a viable outcome. B12 contract is up in a few years, ACC adds WVU and Cinci + UConn. B12 merges fully with what's left of the PAC.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Just my opinion... if PAC stays in-tact I think Big 12 adds Zags b-ball only and UConn full member. Yormark says he wants "all 4 time zones" and "14 teams"...Would leave a spot for an additional football member down the road and gets you the Pacific timezone in basketball.

 

[RSTuthill]

Yes. People like the Big East. In football, if we are able to continue scheduling P5 teams at home, we will be fine.

And in four years HCJM will be gone if that happens. And UConn might as well step down to FCS. The status quo is unsustainable for 10 years.

 

[shizzle787]

And in four years HCJM will be gone if that happens. And UConn might as well step down to FCS. The status quo is unsustainable for 10 years.

Mora was given no promises of a conference when he took the job. He is also 61. If he was going to leave, it would have been after last season.

 

[shizzle787]

Gonzaga isn't worth more than the top half teams in the Big East, there would be no pay raise for adding them (except for Gonzaga). Fees might go down with the additional Pacific time zone games, which are worth less. I don't think they'd be added, thankfully.

ACC will likely look to expand and poach B12 teams before it implodes. UConn could get a lifeline then. I still think that's a viable outcome. B12 contract is up in a few years, ACC adds WVU and Cinci + UConn. B12 merges fully with what's left of the PAC.

Gonzaga is ranked 5th in brand metrics in basketball. UConn is ranked 38th by the way. I’m sure we will go up after last year. The league would absolutely get at least a small raise for adding them and the additional inventory they provide.
I want us to get a P5 lifeline as much as the next guy, but we need a specific scenario to land in the Big 12. I don’t see that scenario (one or three of the Corner schools bolting) happening.

 

[shizzle787]

The AD won't make it 10 years at bargain basement media payments.

The school will subsidize our athletics to bridge the decade if need be. The subsidy is 1% of the school’s budget. They can afford it.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Mora was given no promises of a conference when he took the job. He is also 61. If he was going to leave, it would have been after last season.

He's a very young 61. I think he likes his life here - he's close to his kids, etc.

 

[Hoophound]

Gonzaga is ranked 5th in brand metrics in basketball. UConn is ranked 38th by the way. I’m sure we will go up after last year. The league would absolutely get at least a small raise for adding them and the additional inventory they provide.
I want us to get a P5 lifeline as much as the next guy, but we need a specific scenario to land in the Big 12. I don’t see that scenario (one or three of the Corner schools bolting) happening.

So said the consultant hired by the Zags. All that means is that they played other highly ranked teams on tv the last few years.

 

[shizzle787]

So said the consultant hired by the Zags. All that means is that they played other highly ranked teams on tv the last few years.

That’s according to CBS.

 

[BlueandOG]

Shizzle, I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. I hope you are wrong about UCONN to the B12

 

[HuskyHawk]

Gonzaga is ranked 5th in brand metrics in basketball. UConn is ranked 38th by the way. I’m sure we will go up after last year. The league would absolutely get at least a small raise for adding them and the additional inventory they provide.
I want us to get a P5 lifeline as much as the next guy, but we need a specific scenario to land in the Big 12. I don’t see that scenario (one or three of the Corner schools bolting) happening.

I saw thiose rankings. Trash would be too kind a word for them. They have no validity whatsoever. Gonzaga is not more valuable than UConn or Villanova. Not even close to as valuable. They arent getting an invite and we wouldn’t get a raise if they did.

As for corner schools, it could be just Colorado. That’s the one chance.

 

[RSTuthill]

Mora was given no promises of a conference when he took the job. He is also 61. If he was going to leave, it would have been after last season.

I fail to see the logic in that. He will stay as long as the trajectory is up (as it currently is) but only to a point. I would not think he would be interested in staying if UConn took two steps backward or it became increasingly clear that the system will prevent UConn from ever reaching the P5.

 

[shizzle787]

I fail to see the logic in that. He will stay as long as the trajectory is up (as it currently is) but only to a point. I would not think he would be interested in staying if UConn took two steps backward or it became increasingly clear that the system will prevent UConn from ever reaching the P5.

We will be in a power conference no later than 2033 or 2034 when the ACC is raided.

 

[CL82]

And in four years HCJM will be gone if that happens. And UConn might as well step down to FCS. The status quo is unsustainable for 10 years.

I don't think Jim Mora is going anywhere.

 

[Samoo]

Being in the Big East for the next decade until the ACC gets raided and needs replacements wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, especially if Gonzaga joins and the Big East gets a decent pay raise.

If my aunt had a rig she'd be my uncle...