The Makurat Factor (and use of Plus/Minus statistics)

[CamrnCrz1974]

Plus/Minus (+/-) is a metric that looks at how teams perform with a certain player on the court, how they perform with a certain player off the court, and calculates the overall impact that player has on team success. There are a lot of versions of the metric, (e.g., Box Plus/Minus, which is a per-100-possession stat relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average; Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric; and Real Plus/Minus, which is a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions and taking into account teammates and opponents as factors).

But looking at a "basic" Plus/Minus -- reflecting how the team did while a player is on the court in a particular game -- and going through the play-by-play (yes, I did), this is a breakdown of how UConn did with Anna Makurat on the court vs. the Huskies' performance with Makurat on the bench

ANNA MAKURAT
10 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists (3 turnovers), 1 block, and 2 steals

ON THE COURT​	OFF THE COURT​
31 minutes	9 minutes
UConn +1	USA +16
UConn: 51-50	USA: 29-13
Q1: USA 11-8 (six minutes)	USA: 10-3 (four minutes)
Q2: UConn 20-10 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q3: USA 21-20 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q4: USA 8-3 (five minutes)	USA: 19-10 (five minutes)

@EricLA and @ucbart know much I love analytical analysis and statistics.
@CocoHusky , @HuskyNan , @vowelguy , @triaddukefan

 

[Dokey]

Plus/Minus (+/-) is a metric that looks at how teams perform with a certain player on the court, how they perform with a certain player off the court, and calculates the overall impact that player has on team success. There are a lot of versions of the metric, (e.g., Box Plus/Minus, which is a per-100-possession stat relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average; Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric; and Real Plus/Minus, which is a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions and taking into account teammates and opponents as factors).

But looking at a "basic" Plus/Minus -- reflecting how the team did while a player is on the court in a particular game -- and going through the play-by-play (yes, I did), this is a breakdown of how UConn did with Anna Makurat on the court vs. the Huskies' performance with Makurat on the bench

ANNA MAKURAT
10 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists (3 turnovers), 1 block, and 2 steals

ON THE COURT​	OFF THE COURT​
31 minutes	9 minutes
UConn +1	USA +16
UConn: 51-50	USA: 29-13
Q1: USA 11-8 (six minutes)	USA: 10-3 (four minutes)
Q2: UConn 20-10 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q3: USA 21-20 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q4: USA 8-3 (five minutes)	USA: 19-10 (five minutes)

@EricLA and @ucbart know much I love analytical analysis and statistics.
@CocoHusky , @HuskyNan , @vowelguy , @triaddukefan

In other words, pretty much like all her games, especially of late. She was the steal of the recruiting season.

 

[mrmojack]

In my opinion Boston to South Carolina was the steal of the class (from
us).
Anna has been very good, and getting better every game.

 

[HuskyNan]

Can we please stop kicking Kyla for not being the second coming of Napheesa?

 

[Dokey]

In my opinion Boston to South Carolina was the steal of the class (from
us).
Anna has been very good, and getting better every game.

Anna was more of a steal than Boston because she was unknown. Everyone wanted Boston.

 

[Dokey]

Can we please stop kicking Kyla for not being the second coming of Napheesa?

Kyla is fulfilling her role as a great teammate. I suppose she started out as seat holder waiting for Anna to gain confidence but she contributed valuable minutes in the process. She is the UConn heart.

 

[psconn]

I believe Anna (or Geno or both) has stated that coming off the bench is more comfortable for her... time to level the nerves a bit. If so, I'm fine with this arrangement continuing. If her confidence/output trend continues, Geno will do what works best for the team with respect to starters. It's total minutes and who is on the court during high leverage situations that is more important. Anna has essentially been playing starters minutes of late anyway.

 

[Dokey]

Earlier in the year Boneyarders were predicting that when the new recruits arrive next year that Anna would return to bench. I disagreed then. I watched how demonstrably better UConn was when she was on the floor even before she increased her personal offense. UConn is going to ride on her very broad shoulders for years. If we assume Paige takes over at point and Anna steps into the starting lineup, where does Evina fit in? If Meg elects for WNBA, problem solved, though that would be a major loss. And where does that put Aubrey? Do we abandon a tall post and go with a strong defensive team backed by fast wings and long range snipers?

 

[Sifaka]

Plus/Minus (+/-) is a metric that looks at how teams perform with a certain player on the court, how they perform with a certain player off the court, and calculates the overall impact that player has on team success. There are a lot of versions of the metric, (e.g., Box Plus/Minus, which is a per-100-possession stat relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average; Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric; and Real Plus/Minus, which is a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions and taking into account teammates and opponents as factors).

But looking at a "basic" Plus/Minus -- reflecting how the team did while a player is on the court in a particular game -- and going through the play-by-play (yes, I did), this is a breakdown of how UConn did with Anna Makurat on the court vs. the Huskies' performance with Makurat on the bench

ANNA MAKURAT
10 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists (3 turnovers), 1 block, and 2 steals

ON THE COURT​	OFF THE COURT​
31 minutes	9 minutes
UConn +1	USA +16
UConn: 51-50	USA: 29-13
Q1: USA 11-8 (six minutes)	USA: 10-3 (four minutes)
Q2: UConn 20-10 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q3: USA 21-20 (ten minutes)	N/A
Q4: USA 8-3 (five minutes)	USA: 19-10 (five minutes)

@EricLA and @ucbart know much I love analytical analysis and statistics.
@CocoHusky , @HuskyNan , @vowelguy , @triaddukefan

Thanks for the explanation and examples, CamrnCrz1974. As a fellow lover of stats and quantitative analysis, I find the subject fascinating. That said, we should be careful in interpreting +/- numbers. They are not likely to fall neatly into the causality bucket, nor that of coincidence. Probably they are between the two, useful general indicators of direction.

If this were about positive +/- = causality, we would need absolute ceteris paribus for everything except Anna's presence or absence on the floor. Obviously, that is not the case. We cannot control for the scores when she enters the game, nor the personnel for both teams. Further, the foul situation can affect the play of others even when all the same players are on the court.

Is Anna's presence generally a GOOD THING (spoken in a a Terry Pratchett voice)?
You bet! She continues to improve on both ends of the court.

 

[Dokey]

One other thought. This might not be the last time Anna plays Team USA. She could be on Polish Olympic team.

 

[EricLA]

Earlier in the year Boneyarders were predicting that when the new recruits arrive next year that Anna would return to bench. I disagreed then. I watched how demonstrably better UConn was when she was on the floor even before she increased her personal offense. UConn is going to ride on her very broad shoulders for years. If we assume Paige takes over at point and Anna steps into the starting lineup, where does Evina fit in? If Meg elects for WNBA, problem solved, though that would be a major loss. And where does that put Aubrey? Do we abandon a tall post and go with a strong defensive team backed by fast wings and long range snipers?

I've been predicting for a while now that next year, with Kyla and Crystal leaving, assuming everyone 100% healthy, Evina and Anna would replace them as starters. I think most feel Paige will be the starter over Anna, and I'm sure there will be VERY spirited debate over the summer.

Obviously Geno has no idea. I'm betting he hasn't even thougt about who will be starters next season. But that's never stopped fans from speculating/predicting!

As always @CamrnCrz1974 , great stuff. Anna is a special player. And we are just seeing her scratch the surface. Another bold prediction - she will be on the Huskies of Honor wall before she leaves UCONN!!

 

[Rb335]

Earlier in the year Boneyarders were predicting that when the new recruits arrive next year that Anna would return to bench. I disagreed then. I watched how demonstrably better UConn was when she was on the floor even before she increased her personal offense. UConn is going to ride on her very broad shoulders for years. If we assume Paige takes over at point and Anna steps into the starting lineup, where does Evina fit in? If Meg elects for WNBA, problem solved, though that would be a major loss. And where does that put Aubrey? Do we abandon a tall post and go with a strong defensive team backed by fast wings and long range snipers?

If Westbrook is fully healthy, I could see her starting at the point to alleviate the pressure placed on Paige. If given the opportunity, Geno tends to bring freshman off the bench. The cool thing about next year will be the (hopefully) vast depth and versatility of potential lineups.

 

[Bama fan]

Can we please stop kicking Kyla for not being the second coming of Napheesa?

Unfortunately @HuskyNan , it seems that some of "us" just cannot stop kicking poor Kyla . Or Kayla, or Kyra, or Irving, or whatever this disrespectful bunch calls her on any given day. Hope no one ever treated their children so terribly.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Anna is poised and she has an efficiency of movement on the court that bespeaks her ability to read the floor and the players on it. There is at least a handful of plays a game where she is wide open in the corner and ignored or unseen as guards and forwards probe for a lay up and that is a waste.

 

[winlots]

I think close to 100% of BY regulars know that there is no better teammate than Kyla. Also, few would dispute her substantial, perhaps even crucial, on-court contributions early this season before the Frosh got acclimated.

 

[CocoHusky]

One other thought. This might not be the last time Anna plays Team USA. She could be on Polish Olympic team.

Highly unlikely. The Polish National team has only qualified for the Olympics once, in 2000. The team’s current FIBA ranking is 35.