The Four Guard + Whaley Offense

[ThabeetDown]

Whaley isn't a poor shot blocker. I agree with everything else.

It's not that Whaley is a poor shot blocker, it's that Akok is elite so there's a drop in production no matter what when Akok is out.

 

[LIuconn]

It’s 2006 Villanova light. Just hope we have enough gas for a conference tournament run

 

[nelsonmuntz]

We score fairly well with some of the 4 guard lineups (I think that is somewhat a function of the competition they have played recently), but we give up a lot on defense.

I want to spend some time with this, but I think that Whaley and Carlton together gives us our best combination of offense AND defense.

 

[pj]

Anybody else think that like a month and half ago Whaley and Jayson Tatum had a sleepover and just decided to be unstoppable forces of nature? Or am I the only one that thinks that's what happened?

Why didn't Whaley sleepover with Sid Wilson? Is he not a team player?

 

[Psolo12]

We score fairly well with some of the 4 guard lineups (I think that is somewhat a function of the competition they have played recently), but we give up a lot on defense.

I want to spend some time with this, but I think that Whaley and Carlton together gives us our best combination of offense AND defense.

Not true. It clogs the lane and doesn’t allow them to spread the floor. Advanced statistics show this just isn’t true.

 

[gtcam]

Vital rebounding like a 6’9” freak show really helps that lineup. I fear not having him but I hear Richie Springs is an actual 6’9” freak show on the boards. Hope that is accurate.

ThabeetDown - GREAT WORK - love the analysis
Richie S is supposed to be a rebounding monster and that's good because CV is UConn's top rebounder. But will Richie see enough PT to make up for the lost rebounds? Also, CV is also the teams top scorer and FT shooter - it's going to take a lot to replace that

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not true. It clogs the lane and doesn’t allow them to spread the floor. Advanced statistics show this just isn’t true.

The query I did showed we gave up 0.7 points of offense for 1.9 points of better defense.

 

[auror]

The query I did showed we gave up 0.7 points of offense for 1.9 points of better defense.

This is any 4 of the 5 guards (Gaff, Vital, Gilbert, Bouk, Adams) with any 5th, vs. all other lineup combinations.



-11.1 adjD, +18.4 adjO. Net +7.3, which is quite substantial. 300 possessions for the 4 guard lineups, which is enough that I trust it a bit (4-5 games worth), as opposed to most of the individual lineups which have a lot of noise and a small sample size.

 

[auror]

The query I did showed we gave up 0.7 points of offense for 1.9 points of better defense.

This is the any 4 guard lineup vs. the any 3 guard lineup plus specifically both Whaley and Carlton.



The sample size is still small on the Whaley+Carlton lineup (only 77 possessions), but what's here is pretty brutal. The offense has shot poorly from all levels. The defense has been average, if slightly better than 4 guards. But it's been a little unlucky on opponent 3pt shooting, so probably a couple more points better on defense. It's 29 points per 100 possessions worse on offense than the 4 guard lineup, though. Again, small sample size. But that's breathtaking.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Interestingly, Carlton by himself has a really positive impact on defense over a lot of possessions, but I will acknowledge that the Whaley + Carlton lineup does not seem to work. I would still like to see more of it over a larger data set of possessions.

 

[auror]

Really good article on Nylon Calculus about lineup composition.

Nylon Calculus: Optimizing NBA lineup fit

Here is a new approach to using measures of role, skill and quality to optimize fit and player combinations in NBA lineups.

fansided.com

A bit dense, but here's a key chart:

So (*caveat in the NBA) there are diminishing returns on playing multiple studs and 3+D wings, and more than 1 vertical spacing rim protectors is an abject disaster.

But having multiple perimeter scorers/playmakers has no such issues and is actually better than the sum of its parts.

This seems to reflect the consensus (except for perhaps people overrating 3+D wings at the expense of playmakers), but it's interesting to see it quantified. It's interesting to see Houston's recent success fitting into this. What did they actually do to their lineup? They removed a rolling rim protector and inserted an additional 3+D wing, but had him play as a stretch 4. And it may be a special case, because Covington has been guarding 4s well, whereas some other 3+Ds can't.

 

[Bonk]

If Hurley is going to commit to the 4 guard offense which seems to be working very well one player that could fit the bill as a possible grad transfer is EJ Anosike from Sacred Heart. Not sure if he's eligible yet, he's played 3 years at SHU.

He's a 6'6 245lb guard who doesn't shoot the ball particularly well (26% from 3 this year and 35% from 3 last year), but he plays big. Averaging close to 16ppg and 12rpg at SHU. Has had several 15+ rebound games this year and gets to the FT line at a steady clip.

He could fit in very well as a 4 man that allows us to play fast with 4 guards but doesn't make us sacrifice as much on the rebounding end. He's originally from New Jersey...Hurley connection??

 

[UConnStats]

Really good article on Nylon Calculus about lineup composition.

Nylon Calculus: Optimizing NBA lineup fit

Here is a new approach to using measures of role, skill and quality to optimize fit and player combinations in NBA lineups.

fansided.com

A bit dense, but here's a key chart:
View attachment 51442

So (*caveat in the NBA) there are diminishing returns on playing multiple studs and 3+D wings, and more than 1 vertical spacing rim protectors is an abject disaster.

But having multiple perimeter scorers/playmakers has no such issues and is actually better than the sum of its parts.

This seems to reflect the consensus (except for perhaps people overrating 3+D wings at the expense of playmakers), but it's interesting to see it quantified. It's interesting to see Houston's recent success fitting into this. What did they actually do to their lineup? They removed a rolling rim protector and inserted an additional 3+D wing, but had him play as a stretch 4. And it may be a special case, because Covington has been guarding 4s well, whereas some other 3+Ds can't.

Makes you think of how good we could be next year with a stretch 4 that can defend size well enough and rebound. If Polley wasn't such a negative on the defensive glass, I think that would come been a bit more obvious last year too.

The offense has looked so much better when we go small. We're 71st in offensive efficiency now, which I would have thought was a pipe dream just a month ago. Even more impressive is that the huge progression in offensive efficiency has come with Adams at the 4, despite him having just a 92.2 ORtg in conference. The mere fact that teams have to guard him when he spots up on the perimeter has opened up the offense in comparison to a 2 big set with Carlton's (or even Akok's) similarly bad ORtg clogging up the lane for Vital and Bouknight, whose efficiencies have both skyrocketed since the switch. We saw something similar to this last with with Jalen Adams having his best year with Polley at the 4.

 

[auror]

Even more impressive is that the huge progression in offensive efficiency has come with Adams at the 4, despite him having just a 92.2 ORtg in conference. The mere fact that teams have to guard him when he spots up on the perimeter has opened up the offense in comparison to a 2 big set with Carlton's (or even Akok's) similarly bad ORtg clogging up the lane for Vital and Bouknight, whose efficiencies have both skyrocketed since the switch.

Adams has been decent since the switch to more 4 guard, compared to earlier on conference play. He's had a median ORTG of 104, despite shooting 20% from 3 in that stretch. He's been able to attack the rim and get to the line more. In the brutal stretch of AAC +Villanova he went 5 straight games without getting to the line (0 total FTA), despite playing 20 minutes a night on average. He also avraged only 1.4 2pt attempts per game. He had a median ORTG of 68 in that stretch. The next game he got to the line 8 times and we won easily against Temple. He's gotten to the line in all 5 games for 15 total FTA in the Akok-less era, and is averaging 3.8 2pt attempts per game. I would attribute this to both increased spacing and probably exploiting mismatches of slower or bigger players guarding him.

For specifically Bouknight, it's IMO probably both the system making it easier for him with more space to operate, and him maturing and settling down. Insert "he's a sophomore now" cliche. For Vital, I think it's almost entirely him just making shots that he was missing before. Maybe his shot quality is better due to the system, but his increase in volume for 3s attempted makes me think whatever system improvement to his quality would be offset by his increased volume, and his shooting being so much better (and more in line with career averages) makes me think it's probably more a mechanical or approach tweak or just a good old fashioned mean regression.

All of that being said, it's been a treat to watch and I hope we get to see it for at least 4 more games...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Makes you think of how good we could be next year with a stretch 4 that can defend size well enough and rebound. If Polley wasn't such a negative on the defensive glass, I think that would come been a bit more obvious last year too.

The offense has looked so much better when we go small. We're 71st in offensive efficiency now, which I would have thought was a pipe dream just a month ago. Even more impressive is that the huge progression in offensive efficiency has come with Adams at the 4, despite him having just a 92.2 ORtg in conference. The mere fact that teams have to guard him when he spots up on the perimeter has opened up the offense in comparison to a 2 big set with Carlton's (or even Akok's) similarly bad ORtg clogging up the lane for Vital and Bouknight, whose efficiencies have both skyrocketed since the switch. We saw something similar to this last with with Jalen Adams having his best year with Polley at the 4.

Inside/outside spacing is often more effective than spreading players around the perimeter. A skip pass is easier to recover for on defense than helping off an interior offensive player. I think part of Carlton's offensive issues are the result of not getting the ball in situations where he can be most effective. Think about how good his ORtg would be if he got 2-3 dump off passes at the block every game.

 

[Psolo12]

Inside/outside spacing is often more effective than spreading players around the perimeter. A skip pass is easier to recover for on defense than helping off an interior offensive player. I think part of Carlton's offensive issues are the result of not getting the ball in situations where he can be most effective. Think about how good his ORtg would be if he got 2-3 dump off passes at the block every game.

it can't get much worse lol

 

[ThabeetDown]

I wrote the first post in this thread nearly 2 years ago, so when we saw flashes of this last night with Whaley's back-to-back dimes in the middle of the second half it reminded me of how the small ball offense under Hurley can really be outstanding.

This post was centered on Whaley and 4 guards -- the team on the floor last night was Whaley-Cole-Martin-Polley-Jackson for the two Whaley dimes -- essentially 4 guards (not getting into semantics about Martin/Jackson/Polley, they're not true 4s, so if you want to say Whaley and 4 wings, lets do that. It's small ball regardless).

He's largely been removed from this role due to Sanogo being on the court -- and of course Sanogo can't perform this role since he has limited ball handling/passing skills. I would love the team to do more of this when Sanogo gets into foul trouble again (I still am amazed he went 37 min without a foul last night) as Whaley really does make the offense move with 4 wings, especially without a true PG.

That unit has played very well:

Of note, 45.8% from 3 and 76.5% at the rim is what you want and scoring at nearly 137.7 points per 100 possessions.

To compare, the main two rotations are at:

Obviously much better on D with Sanogo as a true center (and Polley over Whaley on offense in the second lineup) but the shooting numbers are way, way down on offense compared to the Whaley+4 one above.

By no means am I advocating for Sanogo to play less, but all I wanted to do is point out that Whaley still can play a huge role on this team in a small offense when they have to. I know we didn't get to see much of it vs Nova Round 1 with the fouls, but would love to see Hurley dust off some of those plays from that UCF game I showed in the first post vs the Wildcats on Tuesday when they might have to go smaller.

 

[tykurez]

It’ll be interesting to see where this goes in the future, especially seeing Hurley continue to recruit “traditional” bigs like Clingan.

 

[t8per]

It’ll be interesting to see where this goes in the future, especially seeing Hurley continue to recruit “traditional” bigs like Clingan.

I'd like to think Clingan was the exception, not the rule. He was an in-state top-50 recruit, we had to get him. Also, Clingan is a great passer for his size.

That being said, I hope we try to play less two-big lineups next year

 

[NJHusky]

I wrote the first post in this thread nearly 2 years ago, so when we saw flashes of this last night with Whaley's back-to-back dimes in the middle of the second half it reminded me of how the small ball offense under Hurley can really be outstanding.

This post was centered on Whaley and 4 guards -- the team on the floor last night was Whaley-Cole-Martin-Polley-Jackson for the two Whaley dimes -- essentially 4 guards (not getting into semantics about Martin/Jackson/Polley, they're not true 4s, so if you want to say Whaley and 4 wings, lets do that. It's small ball regardless).

He's largely been removed from this role due to Sanogo being on the court -- and of course Sanogo can't perform this role since he has limited ball handling/passing skills. I would love the team to do more of this when Sanogo gets into foul trouble again (I still am amazed he went 37 min without a foul last night) as Whaley really does make the offense move with 4 wings, especially without a true PG.

That unit has played very well:
View attachment 73431
Of note, 45.8% from 3 and 76.5% at the rim is what you want and scoring at nearly 137.7 points per 100 possessions.

To compare, the main two rotations are at:

View attachment 73432
Obviously much better on D with Sanogo as a true center (and Polley over Whaley on offense in the second lineup) but the shooting numbers are way, way down on offense compared to the Whaley+4 one above.

By no means am I advocating for Sanogo to play less, but all I wanted to do is point out that Whaley still can play a huge role on this team in a small offense when they have to. I know we didn't get to see much of it vs Nova Round 1 with the fouls, but would love to see Hurley dust off some of those plays from that UCF game I showed in the first post vs the Wildcats on Tuesday when they might have to go smaller.

Your points make sense. Maybe it’s as simple as switching Whaley for Polley or Hawkins in the starting lineup and IW playing the 5 with the second team not starting next to sanogo

 

[mauconnfan]

Your points make sense. Maybe it’s as simple as switching Whaley for Polley or Hawkins in the starting lineup and IW playing the 5 with the second team not starting next to sanogo

We really can’t afford to see what’s going to happen the first few minutes on the defensive end if they made that change. Huge difference in what Isaiah brings then either Hawk or Polley on D. Not worth the chance of giving the other team early confidence.

 

[businesslawyer]

What a great use of statistical analysis. As I keep saying, given that we seem to be settling on a very thin, 7.5 man rotation, it isn’t critical who starts and there is only so much lineup flexibility we have. But what is important is that recognizing this means that we can and should plan on letting Sanogo get 10 minutes of rest per game, even when he avoids foul trouble, and when he’s resting recognize that we then need to be running a totally diffferent offensive scheme. Because of Akok’s limited contribution this year, IW and Sanogo are going to have to play together some, because IW is not going to be limited to 10 minutes a game as a backup 5 by computer metrics, so it’s fine if we want to start that way.

But the analysis means a few minutes less a game for Sanogo, so IW gets more time at the 5, and a few minutes less a game for IW at the 4, so that maybe Sanogo and IW play together only 10 minutes a game, instead of the probably 20 or so that is happening now.

 

[Huskybass]

The best thing about this thread is it clearly shows improvement in the talent level since it was posted 2 years ago. Now we discuss guys like Sanogo, Cole and Martin. Back then we discussed guys like Carlton, Gilbert and Brendan Adams. Very clear upgrade in talent across the board, which has translated to better play and far more wins. The team's winning % in 2019-20 was .613. This season's winning % is .720, and it has gone up in each of Hurley's four seasons.