The "Discuss our seeding and path to the Final Four" Thread

[Ripper32]

 

[CTBasketball]

I love the innocence, but wow Twitter can really attract ‘em.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Hurley won't be able to return to campus if he loses to Pitino.

If you want to be helpful, cheer for him, pray for him, or shut up.

 

[Ripper32]

 

[CTBasketball]

If you want to be helpful, cheer for him, pray for him, or shut up.

It feels like half of our fan base expected the committee to give us an easy path because we’ve got good metrics. Now we’re overreacting.

No games will be easy. Take it game by game.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

NCAA created the NET ranking just to completely ignore it. Can't make it up

Kenpom ranked us higher.

Believe in the team.
Support the coaches & team in believing in themselves.
Withdraw your support from those who aren't helpful to the cause. They're just scared.

Don't let those who are afraid were not good enough to give strength to those who are afraid that we are.

 

[Ripper32]

 

[gsmooth]

It feels like half of our fan base expected the committee to give us an easy path because we’ve got good metrics. Now we’re overreacting.

No games will be easy. Take it game by game.

exactly. Also people talk about how Iona and VCU can attack UConn's weakness. Well, there are many ways UConn can attack Iona's weaknesses as well VCU's and St. Mary's weaknesses if UConn beats Iona.

 

[gsmooth]

interesting. Alabama and Nate Oats are completely the opposite and Oates' attitude is to the extreme.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Xavier with a #3 seed over us and neutering our home court advantage in the first round are pretty egregious.

It's bulletin board material if its strength is harnessed. Join the harnessing team.

 

[auror]

This is why we always win the Shot Quality matchups and why our offense is ranked #6 on KenPom. Our shots are basically only open 3 pointers, Sanogo layups, Clingan dunks, and offensive rebound putbacks.

 

[businesslawyer]

Our region is unfortunately well represented here. Vegas likes us as much or more than every 3 seed and one 2 seed.

View attachment 85029

Does that mean we’re 16 to 1 to win it all? If so, why can’t they just say that?

 

[4in16]

Undefeated against non Big East teams this year, with no Big East teams in the region. 9-2 in the last 11 games with the two losses coming by a combined 5 pts in a road and neutral game which each could've gone either way. The team is good, take it game by game. I don't get all the negativity.

 

[NoSpamHere]

I think you can reduce all of the angst on this board to one idea: Which version of the team do you trust/expect to show up? I don’t remember a year in which we have such a range of expectations/experiences from the season to draw on. In most years, if we’re honest with ourselves (like that ever happens) we have a pretty good idea what to expect, with a bit of variance.

This year the word I’d use to describe UConn specifically (and the tournament as a whole is “chaotic”. Sit back and enjoy cause it’s gonna be a (hopefully fun) ride…

 

[storrsroars]

So I ran the numbers on my bracket projections vs those of Lunardi and Palm:

Both Palm and I also got both 16 seed play-in games correct. Lunardi only got one. All three of us whiffed on Rutgers. I also whiffed on Okla St,

I could've had one more, but unlike Lunardi, I didn't update 10 minutes before the reveal show. Palm filed his a little after 3pm and still had Princeton correct. I had Yale. With all the info out there, I cannot understand how Lunardi could be so awful at this.

At least this year, Palm smoked Joey Brackets. Maybe I should start submitting to Bracket Matrix and gain a following!

 

[HuskyHawk]

So I ran the numbers on my bracket projections vs those of Lunardi and Palm:

View attachment 85040

Both Palm and I also got both 16 seed play-in games correct. Lunardi only got one. All three of us whiffed on Rutgers. I also whiffed on Okla St,

I could've had one more, but unlike Lunardi, I didn't update 10 minutes before the reveal show. Palm filed his a little after 3pm and still had Princeton correct. I had Yale. With all the info out there, I cannot understand how Lunardi could be so awful at this.

At least this year, Palm smoked Joey Brackets. Maybe I should start submitting to Bracket Matrix and gain a following!

Lunatic is bad at it because he exists to promote ESPN. So he always has too many teams from ESPN leagues and seeds them too high.

 

[FlippinCrazy!]

exactly. Also people talk about how Iona and VCU can attack UConn's weakness. Well, there are many ways UConn can attack Iona's weaknesses as well VCU's and St. Mary's weaknesses if UConn beats Iona.

We can win our first two games based solely on our size. We need to be outrebounding these teams by a convincing margin.

That being said, I do think we got the scariest 13 seed in the bracket. Scary because it’s hard to know exactly how good this team is, and in the end I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt with Pitino having 5 days to prepare for us. Iona can’t be happy with this matchup either though…

All in all, every team in this region got screwed. IMO this is the group of death, with probably the best 2-9 seeds out of any region. Teams like Arkansas, Illinois, and TCU notably have a ton of talent versus their seeding. Hopefully that means lots of upsets (just not us).

 

[tzznandrew]

We can win our first two games based solely on our size. We need to be outrebounding these teams by a convincing margin.

That being said, I do think we got the scariest 13 seed in the bracket. Scary because it’s hard to know exactly how good this team is, and in the end I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt with Pitino having 5 days to prepare for us. Iona can’t be happy with this matchup either though…

All in all, every team in this region got screwed. IMO this is the group of death, with probably the best 2-9 seeds out of any region. Teams like Arkansas, Illinois, and TCU notably have a ton of talent versus their seeding. Hopefully that means lots of upsets (just not us).

If you're Iona, you wanted Indiana, Tennessee, or Virginia. Indiana is mid at best, Tennessee is missing its PG and best perimeter defender (and coached by Rick Barnes), and Virginia has the 4th slowest tempo in the game, which helps because fewer possessions means greater opportunity for variance.

Instead, Iona gets a team playing 2 hours from campus whose played incredibly well in the last month with a very good inside out combo—and a team that can both rebound and push the pace.

 

[Tenspro2002]

It's not a horrible opening draw (except that Iona was clearly an eyeballs/narrative/geographical matchup and not due to bracketing principles), it's being a #4 seed with Kansas, who was considered an Overall #1 seed candidate until recently, and then UCLA, who was also a #1 seed candidate. Our entire region is loaded.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Our region is unfortunately well represented here. Vegas likes us as much or more than every 3 seed and one 2 seed.

View attachment 85029

3rd, 6th, 8th, and 9th best odds to win it. Yes, our region is loaded.

 

[tzznandrew]

It's not a horrible opening draw (except that Iona was clearly an eyeballs/narrative/geographical matchup and not due to bracketing principles), it's being a #4 seed with Kansas, who was considered an Overall #1 seed candidate until recently, and then UCLA, who was also a #1 seed candidate. Our entire region is loaded.

Sure. But Kansas just got blown out by Texas and is certainly vulnerable (worse predictive stats that us). When they get beat, they often get beat badly.

And UCLA has some major injuries.

Look, we may end up losing to Iona, but this is about as good a draw as you can get as a 4-seed.

 

[Tenspro2002]

We’re going to be so happy to not play a Big East team.

Or dealing with Big East officials.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Sure. But Kansas just got blown out by Texas and is certainly vulnerable (worse predictive stats that us). When they get beat, they often get beat badly.

And UCLA has some major injuries.

Look, we may end up losing to Iona, but this is about as good a draw as you can get as a 4-seed.

The other beef, of course, is that we shouldn't be a 4 seed. We should be a #3 seed.

The dropoff from a team like Iona (whom, granted, we should beat handily) to Kennesaw State or whatever is huge.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Sure. But Kansas just got blown out by Texas and is certainly vulnerable (worse predictive stats that us). When they get beat, they often get beat badly.

And UCLA has some major injuries.

Look, we may end up losing to Iona, but this is about as good a draw as you can get as a 4-seed.

Kansas should be the #2 overall seed, not #4. Texas is their Kryptonite. So our path isn't all that easy. I think St. Mary's is a weak 5, and a good matchup for UConn, so that part is fine. But I'd rather face Houston or Purdue than KU. IU has the easiest path of the #4s. Tennessee's is tough because of Duke as a #5. UVA has a weak #5 is San Diego State (and may well play Charleston), but then Bama.

 

[Tenspro2002]

On the comparison of us vs. Xavier:

The consensus going into this week was that we were comfortably ahead of them on the S Curve.

We beat Providence and lost narrowly to Marquette.

They squeaked by DePaul, beat Creighton, and got blown out by Marquette.

Is the Committee's argument that beating DePaul makes that much of a difference? Because that's effectively what "making the BET championship" means. Or was Xavier ahead of us the whole time, which would be even more laughable?