The coming battle for the National Championship

[YKCornelius]

I know Dawn is a great recruiter, but not seeing a lot of SC games, I really don't know if she is a good gametime coach. From many games that I have seen, I'm not so sure, but as I already said, haven't seen enough to really make a correct observation.

Bald Husky, I have a legitimate question for you (and other 'yarders). At a top program level (let's define that as a perennial Top Ten contender), what qualifies for a "good game time coach"?

Is it to make personnel substitutions that ultimately result in a victory? Is it the ability to make a time out call that stifles an opponent's run? Is it the ability to manage the clock in the last minute or two of a close game that ultimately results in a victory? Is it the ability to change some aspect of the game plan at halftime based on what transpired in the first 20 minutes and have that change result in victory?

Is it measured by how many unranked teams end up beating your team over the course of 40 minutes? Is it measured by how many OT losses occur over the years, vice OT wins? How about by the number of wins and losses decided by 1-2 possessions?

I gotta presume the assessment for elite programs is different than non-elite programs, since elite programs would approach games against inferior opponents during the season trying to meet objectives in addition to simply getting the win.

Turning these questions at Dawn's record of the past 11 years, South Carolina has won nine of the past 11 SEC tournaments and is 4-2 in games decided by <10 points. In the NCAA tournament during the same time frame, they are 8-3 in games decided by <10 points.

Still looking at the same time period but taking the entire season into consideration, Dawn and team are 61-19 in games decided by less than 10 points, 21-10 in games decided by less than five points and 3-3 in OT contests.

I think these numbers would suggest that she is a very good game-time coach.

 

[Skeets]

I never said she wasn't.

Let me expand on the loss of Paige. She took maybe 15 or 16 shots per game. Paige made about 50%. Without Paige someone else will be taking those shots. They could hit 40% of those shots. Suddenly the loss doesn't look so insurmountable. UConn will go on.

 

[Bone Dog]

I’m not crazy about the criticism of Dawn as a ‘game time’ coach. I’ve seen games where some of her decisions seemed odd to me. But I’ve seen games where Geno’s decisions seemed odd to me. It’s very likely that if I’d had more information about the players each coach was working with, I might have understood their decisions better.

 

[willie99]

We're too good. Stay healthy, it's back to back baby. SC is an afterthought

 

[Cuango]

This is quite a verdict.

I think every coach looks better when they have “superior” talent. Even a great coach like Geno, who has had more than his fair share of #1 ranked recruits (including 3 on this past year’s team). This is a throwback to a common theme of the past season, with coach after coach discrediting Dawn because of her ability to recruit. I don’t see too many coaches turning down McDonald’s AAs just to prove that they could be a better coach without them. But I’d like to see it, for the “good of the game” lol

I’m always surprised by the sensitivity to people commenting that “so and so (a coach) wins because he/she gets the best recruits.” Duh! Every coach wins in varying degrees according to the amount of talent on their roster. Sure, some coaches do more (or less) with that talent than others do but let’s face it, in the top echelons of virtually any sport, the ability to recruit top (and appropriate) talent is absolutely critical to being able to compete for a championship.

I do believe that among those coaches that are able to bring in top talent year after year, there some who are able to develop that talent better and/or are able to design a game plan or style of play that utilizes it better. Those are the coaches that Bum Phillips referred to as being able to “take his’n and beat your’n or take your’n and beat his’n!”

Obviously, I put Geno at the top of Bum’s list but he’s clearly not the only one. Any coach that creates a dominant, championship winning program has that ability to some degree. Therein lies the difference imo between the truly great coaches, but all of them have at least some of that ability.

Now, I would say there have been five and 1/2 truly great coaches in the past 40 years. Geno, Kim, Pat, Dawn, Tara, and Muffet! All had what I call the “Bum” ability but some clearly had more than others. While I will not presume to rank them according to their “Take your’n or his’n” abilities (except for Geno as the clear #1) I will say that my ranking would most definitely not follow the number of titles won as the main criterion.

 

[Just.A.Fan]

Now, I would say there have been five and 1/2 truly great coaches in the past 40 years. Geno, Kim, Pat, Dawn, Tara, and Muffet! All had what I call the “Bum” ability but some clearly had more than others. While I will not presume to rank them according to their “Take your’n or his’n” abilities (except for Geno as the clear #1) I will say that my ranking would most definitely not follow the number of titles won as the main criterion.

All that you wrote above was well stated, but the last paragraph ... especially the 1/2 ... couldn't have been stated better.

 

[HopJim]

I’m not crazy about the criticism of Dawn as a ‘game time’ coach. I’ve seen games where some of her decisions seemed odd to me. But I’ve seen games where Geno’s decisions seemed odd to me. It’s very likely that if I’d had more information about the players each coach was working with, I might have understood their decisions better.

There is a phase, "Recency bias." Prior to winning the National Championship," for several years it appeared that Dawn was receiving a significantly larger % of positive reviews than Geno. My view is that I have loved Geno as a coach for 20+ years and I try not to get too high or low. Since that is hard to do, always great to be in the fan base whose team won it all!

 

[diggerfoot]

Bald Husky, I have a legitimate question for you (and other 'yarders). At a top program level (let's define that as a perennial Top Ten contender), what qualifies for a "good game time coach"?

Is it to make personnel substitutions that ultimately result in a victory? Is it the ability to make a time out call that stifles an opponent's run? Is it the ability to manage the clock in the last minute or two of a close game that ultimately results in a victory? Is it the ability to change some aspect of the game plan at halftime based on what transpired in the first 20 minutes and have that change result in victory?

Is it measured by how many unranked teams end up beating your team over the course of 40 minutes? Is it measured by how many OT losses occur over the years, vice OT wins? How about by the number of wins and losses decided by 1-2 possessions?

I gotta presume the assessment for elite programs is different than non-elite programs, since elite programs would approach games against inferior opponents during the season trying to meet objectives in addition to simply getting the win.

Turning these questions at Dawn's record of the past 11 years, South Carolina has won nine of the past 11 SEC tournaments and is 4-2 in games decided by <10 points. In the NCAA tournament during the same time frame, they are 8-3 in games decided by <10 points.

Still looking at the same time period but taking the entire season into consideration, Dawn and team are 61-19 in games decided by less than 10 points, 21-10 in games decided by less than five points and 3-3 in OT contests.

I think these numbers would suggest that she is a very good game-time coach.

I do not consider myself an adequate judge of good game time coaches. I generally assume that coaches at the top have this quality on their way their, even though after they arrive they now are winning with superior talent.

However, I can provide one notable example of good game coaching by both sides. In a game against Texas, Muhl was having her way as a facilitator of the offense. Schaffer made a good adjustment by making it difficult for Muhl to get the ball.

In the second half Auriemma made his own adjustment by using Fudd as the PG. She did not facilitate as well, but she did not have to on her way to scoring 30 points through ball dominance.

We won, but I thought the game revealed both coaches to be excellent at making in game adjustments. Sometimes, as with ball possession, it just comes down to who makes the last adjustment.

 

[MooseJaw]

Bald Husky, I have a legitimate question for you (and other 'yarders). At a top program level (let's define that as a perennial Top Ten contender), what qualifies for a "good game time coach"?

Is it to make personnel substitutions that ultimately result in a victory? Is it the ability to make a time out call that stifles an opponent's run? Is it the ability to manage the clock in the last minute or two of a close game that ultimately results in a victory? Is it the ability to change some aspect of the game plan at halftime based on what transpired in the first 20 minutes and have that change result in victory?

Is it measured by how many unranked teams end up beating your team over the course of 40 minutes? Is it measured by how many OT losses occur over the years, vice OT wins? How about by the number of wins and losses decided by 1-2 possessions?

I gotta presume the assessment for elite programs is different than non-elite programs, since elite programs would approach games against inferior opponents during the season trying to meet objectives in addition to simply getting the win.

Turning these questions at Dawn's record of the past 11 years, South Carolina has won nine of the past 11 SEC tournaments and is 4-2 in games decided by <10 points. In the NCAA tournament during the same time frame, they are 8-3 in games decided by <10 points.

Still looking at the same time period but taking the entire season into consideration, Dawn and team are 61-19 in games decided by less than 10 points, 21-10 in games decided by less than five points and 3-3 in OT contests.

I think these numbers would suggest that she is a very good game-time coach.

As I see it, no put downs, just observations. Dawn is a very good recruiter, being part of the Olympic coaching staff, assistant and head coach helped her program in recruiting for years. Dawn is a good practice coach, it seems obvious. Dawn is a good but not great game coach, if she has a big talent advantage she wins games, and in most games, she has a big talent advantage. Question, when was the last time SC was perceived to have less talent than their opponent? I can't think when either. When was the last time SC won a game as an underdog? How many games has SC lost in recent memory as the favorite?
Let's flip the switch, recent years, how many games did UCONN win just last year as the underdog or as a lesser seeded team? Over the years which team won many games with a perceived lesser lineup or a vastly depleted lineup? I can go on, but I have made my case. Add your own if you want. Final observation, there are a number of very good coaches, Vic, Kim and Dawn just to name a few. There are a number of retired coaches that were very good as well, however there is only one who stands at the top of the heap. Only one who will battle to the end with 15 or only 6 healthy players. Ok, enough suspense, the one and only GOAT, Geno the preeminent coach in all college BB, It's not even close.

 

[Bone Dog]

Question, when was the last time SC was perceived to have less talent than their opponent?

This one's easy: They were clear underdogs against UCLA this season and it showed in their one matchup. Still, I take your point. Dawn's had many really dominant seasons, especially in recent years, but also several when the team wasn't ranked in the top-10. Here's a link to their ranking history, which probably tracks when they had to play as underdogs pretty well.

South Carolina Women's Basketball AP Poll History | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out South Carolina's Complete College AP Polls History and More About College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

Interestingly, during the Stewie years they were underdogs sometimes, and sometimes not, and Dawn still scheduled games with UConn despite this. They were as close to being equals when it was Stewie vs A'ja, and also when it was Moriah vs Bianca Cuevas and Tiffany Mitchell. But Stewie and Moriah typically won those matchups. Here's a highlight video from the best of those games, with SC ranked #1 and UConn ranked #2. This one includes some awesome Moriah highlights, including one around the 5:25 minute mark when Moriah takes a rebound baseline to baseline and beats everyone (including Bianca) down the court. Normally, you'd say a pass gets the ball down the floor faster than someone running with a dribble. But that wasn't always the case with Moriah, as on this day. [Also a sweet post move by Kiah at the 6:20 mark -- a baby hook She must have learned from Stewie.]

 

[BobbyJ]

This one's easy: They were clear underdogs against UCLA this season and it showed in their one matchup. Still, I take your point. Dawn's had many really dominant seasons, especially in recent years, but also several when the team wasn't ranked in the top-10. Here's a link to their ranking history, which probably tracks when they had to play as underdogs pretty well.

South Carolina Women's Basketball AP Poll History | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out South Carolina's Complete College AP Polls History and More About College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

Interestingly, during the Stewie years they were underdogs sometimes, and sometimes not, and Dawn still scheduled games with UConn despite this. They were as close to being equals when it was Stewie vs A'ja, and also when it was Moriah vs Bianca Cuevas and Tiffany Mitchell. But Stewie and Moriah typically won those matchups. Here's a highlight video from the best of those games, with SC ranked #1 and UConn ranked #2. This one includes some awesome Moriah highlights, including one around the 5:25 minute mark when Moriah takes a rebound baseline to baseline and beats everyone (including Bianca) down the court. Normally, you'd say a pass gets the ball down the floor faster than someone running with a dribble. But that wasn't always the case with Moriah, as on this day. [Also a sweet post move by Kiah at the 6:20 mark -- a baby hook She must have learned from Stewie.]

She probably did. The coaches should take the one from the original (Stewart) at the 2:10 mark and put it on a loop for El Alfy and Gandy to watch as a clinic on how to catch, half turn, and extend while taking it right up under the defender's chin without a dribble. Tina Charles can show it to them the next time she stops in for practice.

 

[HuskyNan]

I’m not crazy about the criticism of Dawn as a ‘game time’ coach. I’ve seen games where some of her decisions seemed odd to me. But I’ve seen games where Geno’s decisions seemed odd to me. It’s very likely that if I’d had more information about the players each coach was working with, I might have understood their decisions better.

I’m reminded of something Geno said after the Huskies beat Tennessee in a championship game. Geno was asked if he outcoached Pat Summitt. He said he didn’t think so, that sometimes he’d call a time out a draw up a play then “…the kids go out onto the court and do something I’ve never seen before “. He went on to say that if players get hurried up, they’d “lose their minds” occasionally.

In other words, the coach can tell players what to do but it’s the players that have to execute it correctly

 

[huskeynut]

UConn and SC are the two dominant programs in WCBB. This is not in question.

Southern Cal, UCLA are recent additions to the top. Texas is trying to be back in the top tier along with ND.

SC and UConn is the big rivalry today.

If you are going to pick right now the final four, my two locks are SC and UConn. Other potentials are UCLA, Souther Cal - maybe, Texas, ND, NC St. Could there be a surprise like TCU was - yes. But Ihave n o sense of who it could be.

 

[hookshot]

UConn and SC are the two dominant programs in WCBB. This is not in question.

Southern Cal, UCLA are recent additions to the top. Texas is trying to be back in the top tier along with ND.

SC and UConn is the big rivalry today.

If you are going to pick right now the final four, my two locks are SC and UConn. Other potentials are UCLA, Souther Cal - maybe, Texas, ND, NC St. Could there be a surprise like TCU was - yes. But Ihave n o sense of who it could be.

scratch ND, substitute LSU

 

[YKCornelius]

UConn and SC are the two dominant programs in WCBB. This is not in question.

Southern Cal, UCLA are recent additions to the top. Texas is trying to be back in the top tier along with ND.

SC and UConn is the big rivalry today.

If you are going to pick right now the final four, my two locks are SC and UConn. Other potentials are UCLA, Souther Cal - maybe, Texas, ND, NC St. Could there be a surprise like TCU was - yes. But Ihave n o sense of who it could be.

Not discounting your opinion, but I will be EXTREMELY surprised if ND earns the right to host the first and second round games as a #4 seed. To be clear, unless they somehow acquire more talent to support their depleted roster, they will exceed my expectations simply by qualifying for the NCAA tournament this year. I see them in an underdog role a lot this season.

 

[YKCornelius]

scratch ND, substitute LSU

Agree, or better yet, Oklahoma. Top three scorers returning, plus the #3 recruit.

 

[MooseJaw]

Agree, or better yet, Oklahoma. Top three scorers returning, plus the #3 recruit.

Yes agree, Oklahoma has the players to compete, but not to prevail.

 

[Bone Dog]

Not discounting your opinion, but I will be EXTREMELY surprised if ND earns the right to host the first and second round games as a #4 seed. To be clear, unless they somehow acquire more talent to support their depleted roster, they will exceed my expectations simply by qualifying for the NCAA tournament this year. I see them in an underdog role a lot this season.

I'd say something similar about USC. They've lost a lot. Unless Juju miraculously rehabs more quickly than ordinarily happens, I don't see them as a top 20 team. Without Kiki and Rayah and Clarice, they lose pretty much all their front court depth. Iwuchukwu as the starting center? With who playing next to her? Yakiya Milton? Kennedy Smith will probably have to handle it. Samuels and Jones at guard would make for one of the smallest backcourts, unless Kara Dunn wins the starting spot over Samuels -- which is a formula for Samuels hitting the portal at the end of next season. Yes, Jazzy can have an impact. But with little supporting cast, I don't see her having a great freshman season. And personally I think the situation looks no better even with Juju making a miraculous early return. The problems that led to the mass exodus two months ago would very likely return.

 

[GamecockFam]

Glad this will be settled on the basketball floor. IMHO, and I said earlier, between what both teams lost to graduation, the portal, and what both teams are bringing in as freshmen, and from the portal, UConn did better.

SC lost Feagan, Hall, and PaoPao to graduation. They lost Fulwiley and Walker (I believe she has 1 year eligibility left) to the portal. 3 of them were starters. Fulwiley was 1st or 2nd off the bench and the 2nd leading scorer on the team behind Edwards. So they lost 4 out of their top 7 players...

UConn lost Bueckers, Chen, and Griffin to graduation, and Samuels to the portal. 2 starters and their best player/leader.

SC adds Makeer and McDowel, a pair of 6'1-2" wings, Latson (WCBB leading scorer last year), and Okot - a center who started for Mississippi State and averaged over 11 PPG last season.

(Did I miss any additions or subtractions for SC?)...

UConn adds Quinones, Fisher, and Malou-Malel as well as transfers Heckel and Williams.

@oldude had a thread on UConn winning the portal war. I agree with him. Also I'd argue that Quinones is at least as good, if not better, than Makeer, and Fisher and Gandy are at least equivalent of McDowel (not that they play the same position but my point is neither team is appreciably better in their recruiting class- pretty close IMHO).

It's the portal where UConn really finalized our "missing pieces". Williams was a brilliant addition and likely starts, and Heckel and Arnold will be an extraordinary 1-2 punch of PG's for the team.

Given that we walloped them twice last season, and I don't see where they out-maneuvered us in recruiting OR the portal, I will be very surprised if they beat us this season. I'm much more confident of our team than I was last season, and last season we had the incomparable Paige Bueckers.

Obviously SC fans feel really confident too. I'm sure they feel Latson is a huge addition and as the leading scorer last season should help lead them back to the top. They probably feel that Edwards is an AA candidate. Raven Johnson, Tessa Johnson, Watkins, Kitts, and Latson are maybe their starting 5?

I'm really looking forward to seeing how both teams stack up against each other, and how their benches help or hurt. I think our bench is the deepest and best in the nation, but we will see when the games are played.

I'm not a good enough analyst to say whether I think Geno will out coach Dawn or vice versa. I've observed in the past where I thought Geno missed the boat, and the same for Dawn. New season, different teams, different strengths and weaknesses from last year. Bottom line I like our chances.

I really like what McDowell has to offer. She kept climbing in the rankings for a reason. Her time playing for Brazil also will help her jumpstart her college career since she already has experience against pros. She is a really efficient shooter who knows how to get to her spots (reminds me of Bueckers in that aspect of her game). More than likely she will be backing up Tessa off the bench. She looks a lot more seasoned than most of our recruits from the past few years and I expect she will be in the SEC freshman of the year conversation.

Makeer on the other hand looks like a project player to me. She will get minutes because we don't have that many players at guard. I expect she is going to be a "3 and D" type player as a freshman. She has off-the-charts athleticism and length so I think she will be a defensive menace off the bench in the same way that Sania Rivers was as a freshman but I don't expect much scoring from her.

I honestly know nothing about the UConn commitments so I won't compare, but I really think South Carolina found something special in McDowell.

 

[Cuango]

As I see it, no put downs, just observations. Dawn is a very good recruiter, being part of the Olympic coaching staff, assistant and head coach helped her program in recruiting for years. Dawn is a good practice coach, it seems obvious. Dawn is a good but not great game coach, if she has a big talent advantage she wins games, and in most games, she has a big talent advantage. Question, when was the last time SC was perceived to have less talent than their opponent? I can't think when either. When was the last time SC won a game as an underdog? How many games has SC lost in recent memory as the favorite?
Let's flip the switch, recent years, how many games did UCONN win just last year as the underdog or as a lesser seeded team? Over the years which team won many games with a perceived lesser lineup or a vastly depleted lineup? I can go on, but I have made my case. Add your own if you want. Final observation, there are a number of very good coaches, Vic, Kim and Dawn just to name a few. There are a number of retired coaches that were very good as well, however there is only one who stands at the top of the heap. Only one who will battle to the end with 15 or only 6 healthy players. Ok, enough suspense, the one and only GOAT, Geno the preeminent coach in all college BB, It's not even close.

In answer to when Dawn last lost to superior talent, I would have to say both UConn games last season! I think we had better talent than SC.

 

[Cuango]

This one's easy: They were clear underdogs against UCLA this season and it showed in their one matchup. Still, I take your point. Dawn's had many really dominant seasons, especially in recent years, but also several when the team wasn't ranked in the top-10. Here's a link to their ranking history, which probably tracks when they had to play as underdogs pretty well.

South Carolina Women's Basketball AP Poll History | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

Check out South Carolina's Complete College AP Polls History and More About College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com

www.sports-reference.com

Interestingly, during the Stewie years they were underdogs sometimes, and sometimes not, and Dawn still scheduled games with UConn despite this. They were as close to being equals when it was Stewie vs A'ja, and also when it was Moriah vs Bianca Cuevas and Tiffany Mitchell. But Stewie and Moriah typically won those matchups. Here's a highlight video from the best of those games, with SC ranked #1 and UConn ranked #2. This one includes some awesome Moriah highlights, including one around the 5:25 minute mark when Moriah takes a rebound baseline to baseline and beats everyone (including Bianca) down the court. Normally, you'd say a pass gets the ball down the floor faster than someone running with a dribble. But that wasn't always the case with Moriah, as on this day. [Also a sweet post move by Kiah at the 6:20 mark -- a baby hook She must have learned from Stewie.]

“Memories, pressed between the pages of my mind
Memories, sweetened through the ages just like wine”

 

[JellyBean]

For me, on paper and because we are the defending champs, we (UConn) are the favorites. Then South Carolina. Followed by UCLA, Texas, LSU, and Oklahoma. South Carolina could be a problem, same with the other teams. So much just depends on how all the parts blend together. With South Carolina. They have a great coach in Staley and how she is able to get her bench players to buy in and play hard and produce. If Joyce Edwards and Chole Kitts develop their games just a little bit more and if Ashlyn Watkins comes back at 100%. South Carolina could be a problem.

A lot is going to depend on the health of the players, which team is committed to their common core values and principles, how teams handle adversity, and for us at UConn, do we slip into complacency or do we keep reminding ourselves that somewhere out there lurks a rival who is working harder and planning smarter to take us down.

We shall see. It is going to be another great season of WCBB and I can't wait!!

 

[ucbart]

Sleeping on this team? You do realize that ESPN picked SC as the preseason #1 team in the country?

The SC " we don't get respect" is nauseating at this point. ESPN falls all over them. I mean, ever after UCONN BLEW OUT SC in Columbia, Dawn's "fams", I mean, the ESPN studio crew, still picked them to win the NC, even after they looked terrible in every game of the NCAAT(and no, Texas doesn't count because Vic can't beat her and Texas can never out ugly SC).

I'm renaming South Carolina to Victim U. It's just enough. Dawn is treated like she hung the moon in the sky and still we have to hear about this. And before you say a word that SC players don't get respect, that's on Dawn herself. She's made herself the star of the show and there isn't enough limelight for any of them who average 12ppg.

 

[MooseJaw]

In answer to when Dawn last lost to superior talent, I would have to say both UConn games last season! I think we had better talent than SC.

I agree, but would bet that 90% of the WCBB fans in the country would have disagreed when UCONN played SC for the first time. Many here on the BY bet against our Huskies, check the scores where we prognosticate the outcome. There were other indicators as well, or our Huskies would never have been a second seed.

 

[MSGRET]

I agree, but would bet that 90% of the WCBB fans in the country would have disagreed when UCONN played SC for the first time. Many here on the BY bet against our Huskies, check the scores where we prognosticate the outcome. There were other indicators as well, or our Huskies would never have been a second seed.

Almost half of the prognosticators, 48% or 37 of 77 had SC winning. It was the highest number of non UConn votes this year. In the Championship game only 0.035%, 2 of the 57 votes cast were for SC.