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Question for Frank or anyone in the know. Are the P5 interested in creating a new division/association for all sports, or just football?
Question for Frank or anyone in the know. Are the P5 interested in creating a new division/association for all sports, or just football?
The power 5 would likely threaten to split for all sports, but my guess is that it would just be for football. Essentially, there would be "Super FBS" (with the power leagues), FBS and FCS for football, which would all be Division I schools for basketball and other sports. So, I don't think the Georgetowns and Gonzagas of the world will be affected that much since they aren't playing FBS football - I believe basketball (and other sports) will remain largely intact. Football is really where the divide will be.
I think this crap gets floated for recruiting purposes, they want to scare recruits away from anyone not in the top 5. This is recruiting hardball.
That would essentially shut down the FBS, bowls would cease to exist, and teams in the Other 5 would be forced (infringing on the free market), to drop back down to FCS where a "national championship" would mean exactly nothing.
Everything that you have proposed affects the free market. Worthy schools are excluded just because, and unworthy schools are taken along for the ride because...well...they always had been. It is the very definition that you laid out earlier for the basis for an anti-trust law suit. If a school can't or chooses not to achieve certain criteria (as with the split of D1A and D1AA, that's one thing, but the criteria not be a moving target for one and not others.
It happened in 1978 and it can/will happen again. Its likely that the rules wont be written to exclude other member as I described in my earlier post. They will be written so that the money that is required to compete will be so high that the schools themselves will elect not to compete. If the cost for competing in FB goes from $10 million now to $20 million in the future, a lot of low level schools will decide that they simply can't afford to play in that division anymore. Therefore, it will be free market.
The ones that decide they can will join however if bowls don't sign them (bowls sign up with individual conferences, and they don't get TV contracts (again conferences sign these) the disparity will still be there even if they are in the "super" division.
It happened in 1978 and it can/will happen again. Its likely that the rules wont be written to exclude other member as I described in my earlier post. They will be written so that the money that is required to compete will be so high that the schools themselves will elect not to compete. If the cost for competing in FB goes from $10 million now to $20 million in the future, a lot of low level schools will decide that they simply can't afford to play in that division anymore. Therefore, it will be free market.
The ones that decide they can will join however if bowls don't sign them (bowls sign up with individual conferences, and they don't get TV contracts (again conferences sign these) the disparity will still be there even if they are in the "super" division.
frank,The power 5 would likely threaten to split for all sports, but my guess is that it would just be for football. Essentially, there would be "Super FBS" (with the power leagues), FBS and FCS for football, which would all be Division I schools for basketball and other sports. So, I don't think the Georgetowns and Gonzagas of the world will be affected that much since they aren't playing FBS football - I believe basketball (and other sports) will remain largely intact. Football is really where the divide will be.
frank,
I believe you are wrong about basketball, and maybe baseball too. It might start out as "football only" but I really can't believe that there won't be pressure for the same thing in those other sports, possibly the odd other sport that send guys to the pros such as mens hockey, too. They face much the same pressures and much the same issues really. so the question becomes how do you not provide full cost of attendance scholarships for those sports, too, and once you do that, how do non-Super conference teams compete. maybe a Georgetown or a Marquette or somebody goes along and also pays its players, but Providence and Seton Hall are barely hanging in there as it is. They can't go along with this. Not only that, but as we've seem in basketball already, the BCS leagues already pretty much dominate the sport. Last non-football school to win a national championship was UConn in 1999, who actually started its upgrade the following year. These schools have almost no chance as it is. In the new world order they'll have none what so ever.
I do think they are missing 2 things, though. first is the Title IX implications. Just because a sport isn't in the NCAA doesn't mean that it isn't covered by title IX.If those schools think they can get away by giving 85 football players stipends and not providing a comparable number to female athletes I think they will find they badly misunderestimated, as a former president might have put it. The second thing is that if they push this too far and become associated with the schools rather than part of the schools involved, I do think over time they run the risk of turning themselves into minor leagues. And quesry whether 100,000 folks will come to see a minor league football team, even if its called the Michigan Wolverines. Maybe at first, but over time there is a real risk that if the programs become too disengaged with their universities, they will lose the source of fans that made them. the final issue I think, is that at some point, the Presidents might need to weigh in on this. hell, Swofford practically taunted them with his comments about leaving athletics to the people who know this stuff. Bowlesby made similar comments. At some point, it wouldn't shock me to see at least a few of these guys decide that these ADs and Conference commissioners have forgotten for whom they are working and pull them up short.

This split is being caused by the same reasons that caused the divisional split in 1978. Too many low level teams jumping into FBS football. There are way too many teams that want "big time" football (UNC Charlotte starting a team, App State moving from FCS to FBS, South Alabama moving to FBC, etc) that there is a huge disparity again between the Texas and OSU schools making over $100mil a year in athletics and the other schools losing money on athletics. Its time again to separate the schools that can pay their own way and those leaching off the system and pretending to be a big time program when there is no way they will ever be.
The P5 will likely end up getting a separate division in the NCAA that will allow them greater autonomy to be a "semi-professional" league (Stipends for players, lower likelihood of penalties, etc) and stop sharing the big revenues with the App states and South Alabama's of the world. They won't bar teams/conferences from joining them but the cost of entry will be much higher than most of the lower levels will be able to pay effectively keeping them out.
It might work to UCONN's favor as there will likely be enough schools outside of the P5 that will have the resources to fit into the new division. It likely wont be all of the AAC members (Tulane?) so I could see another conference forming that would consist of the G5 members that decide they want to move to the new division.
frank,
I believe you are wrong about basketball, and maybe baseball too. It might start out as "football only" but I really can't believe that there won't be pressure for the same thing in those other sports, possibly the odd other sport that send guys to the pros such as mens hockey, too. They face much the same pressures and much the same issues really ...
Good post. And I have only one question as a big fan of college football and basketball. If this is a move to "semi-pro" football, why would I bother watching on Saturdays when I could watch the real thing on Sundays? I really do think college football and basketball run the risk of being NFL and NBA light and losing the differentiation that has made it such a compelling draw.
There's always this assumption from laypeople that there could be an antitrust lawsuit in college football (whether it's with respect to the playoff system or a split of the conferences), but they're making a wrong assumption about American antitrust law. That is, they mistakenly believe that American antitrust law is set up to preserve competition in and of itself, but the reality is that American antitrust law is to preserve the free market.
Good post. And I have only one question as a big fan of college football and basketball. If this is a move to "semi-pro" football, why would I bother watching on Saturdays when I could watch the real thing on Sundays? I really do think college football and basketball run the risk of being NFL and NBA light and losing the differentiation that has made it such a compelling draw.
Good post. And I have only one question as a big fan of college football and basketball. If this is a move to "semi-pro" football, why would I bother watching on Saturdays when I could watch the real thing on Sundays? I really do think college football and basketball run the risk of being NFL and NBA light and losing the differentiation that has made it such a compelling draw.
It will be FB only. It is the inevitable migration in power FB thinking from Why should we share with lesser conferences to Why should we share with lesser teams in our own conferences.
For certain it won't be a neat and tidy evolution.
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Can you name a school in NCAA history that has met every criteria for competing at a certain level and getting forced down to a lower level against their will. I just don't see how Uconn is forced to a lower level without MAJOR pushback from Congress, Uconn, The State of CT, or the taxpayers of CT.Well, that's part of the dilemma of the split. Let's put it this way: I don't think that the power conferences are going to do a split where the AAC and/or MWC tag along. That almost defeats the purpose of the split - that's a lot of work if only the Sun Belt, MAC and C-USA end up getting effectively relegated. This is completely about structurally institutionalizing a separate division of 5 power conferences and a handful of chosen others (where that division has already existed in practicality).
BYU is an interesting case because they have a lot more political power than the average school. They (along with the service academies, who effectively have full cost of attendance, anyway) would probably end up in the Super FBS division as long as they're independent. Where it gets tricky is if any of them are in Group of Five conferences (as Air Force is and Navy will be). Conferences mean quite a bit in being able to go from division to division in college sports - you can't move up to FBS from FCS unless an FBS conference has a spot for you and I'd assume that would be the same case in trying to move from "normal" FBS to Super FBS. Just because a FCS school meets the requirements of being an FBS school doesn't mean that it can automatically move up - that school still needs a conference home. There hasn't ever been any legal challenge to that format and it's doubtful a viable argument against it exists. Likewise, UConn, Boise State and others that might be able to cover the full cost of attendance aren't necessarily going to find refuge unless a power conference is willing to take them.
So, it makes it very critical to be in the Super FBS from day one because there will likely be requirements beyond just the full cost of attendance (such as revenue requirements in lieu of attendance requirements that would effectively make it impossible for any school to move from FBS to Super FBS unless you're at least a BYU-type, if not a Notre Dame-type).
The upshot: expect the power conferences to put rules into place that will ensure that only they and a very small handful that can survive as independents get in. For UConn's sake, you should hope that Bob Bowlsby is only blowing smoke about the Big 12 wanting to only stay at 10 members.
Exactly. The split has occurred once before (and the biggest league affected at that time was arguably the Ivy League, which certainly doesn't have a shortage of legal experts). Whether one is "worthy" or "unworthy" is likely going to be determined by additional revenue and expense factors, which isn't any more unreasonable than the scholarship and attendance requirements between FBS and FCS today.
exactly... the Ivy league 'decided' not to provide scholarships to its athletes. different from uconn's position where it could be forced down to a lower level.Exactly. The split has occurred once before (and the biggest league affected at that time was arguably the Ivy League, which certainly doesn't have a shortage of legal experts). Whether one is "worthy" or "unworthy" is likely going to be determined by additional revenue and expense factors, which isn't any more unreasonable than the scholarship and attendance requirements between FBS and FCS today.
that's not really true. I think there is a huge difference in the optics of the situation if you move too far away from being a college team. it isn't the same as it is now. it isn't the same as what SMU did in 1980. That was cheating, not everyone knew about it and the team was successful. the nature of the beast changes dramatically when you come right out and pay players who may or may not bother going to class. Because, let's face it, that is a big part of this, too.If people were concerned about the veil of college amateurism getting pierced, then they would have stopped watching college sports a looooong time ago. SMU certainly didn't invent the pro-type infusion of money into college sports and that scandal occurred 30 years ago.
So, I don't think that there's a general public problem with the "semi-pro" model of college football and basketball. That atmosphere has existed for a long time yet that hasn't dampened interest. It's more a micro-problem for each school's fan base: if your school isn't part of that power group, are you still going to watch your school with the same fervor? Remember that most people in America don't have a college degree and most people that have college degrees didn't attend a Division I school (and a further smaller percentage attended a power conference school). The general viewing audience only wants/has time to pay attention to a smaller subset of college football teams each week (much like the NFL) and that's who the TV networks care about (as that's a much larger base to draw from than people that actually attended these schools).
frank .... is arguing that NOTHING has impeded the P5 to this point.
Simply not true. And, he protests too much about Anti-trust legislation. Fact is ... we have ONE really Big impediment that can play out outside the court system. It has been impacted already by Utah senators. And, you can expect that where this is going is NOT simple. It is the argument Blumenthal made (with others back in 2003). You simply cannot exclude a class of smaller states ... and leave no capacity to "join the club" as your University grows (look at UCF and USF going beyond 50,000) ... and leave no ability to rise to compete. I think the Bully Pulpit is there for an argument for an Open system. And the P5 don't want it. Old Dominion can pass Wake in a heartbeat with one ... Bobby Petrino or a Peterson.
What are the P5 doing as well? Trying to NOT be inclusive in the Playoff. We know the Playoff will be 8. A few good Boise teams ... or more ACC defeats proves that the P5 is a paper Tiger. That, in this sport, you can lock out 65 programs ... and guarantee their losses will not sit well with lots of state legislators ... and then on a National level. It ain't about anti-trust and courts.
frank .... is arguing that NOTHING has impeded the P5 to this point.
Simply not true. And, he protests too much about Anti-trust legislation. Fact is ... we have ONE really Big impediment that can play out outside the court system. It has been impacted already by Utah senators. And, you can expect that where this is going is NOT simple. It is the argument Blumenthal made (with others back in 2003). You simply cannot exclude a class of smaller states ... and leave no capacity to "join the club" as your University grows (look at UCF and USF going beyond 50,000) ... and leave no ability to rise to compete. I think the Bully Pulpit is there for an argument for an Open system. And the P5 don't want it. Old Dominion can pass Wake in a heartbeat with one ... Bobby Petrino or a Peterson.
What are the P5 doing as well? Trying to NOT be inclusive in the Playoff. We know the Playoff will be 8. A few good Boise teams ... or more ACC defeats proves that the P5 is a paper Tiger. That, in this sport, you can lock out 65 programs ... and guarantee their losses will not sit well with lots of state legislators ... and then on a National level. It ain't about anti-trust and courts.
that's not really true. I think there is a huge difference in the optics of the situation if you move too far away from being a college team. it isn't the same as it is now. it isn't the same as what SMU did in 1980. That was cheating, not everyone knew about it and the team was successful. the nature of the beast changes dramatically when you come right out and pay players who may or may not bother going to class. Because, let's face it, that is a big part of this, too.
Would they allow ND into their precious club if they weren't in a conference? I think I already know the answer but if some folks already don't like that they get special privilege, this might be their way of forcing them into a conference. Not sure....
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