The Big 12 will not remain a power conference post-2025

[BlueDogs]

The Big 12 is kind of a hybrid P5/G5 football league. Better than the AAC, but not as good as the P5 leagues from both a performance and brand standpoint.

Word on the street is they are going to pick up Memphis and Boise State. The conference will be plenty strong and they may move even further on a super conference with a projected $25M revenue share. So, I'm not sure dumping on the Big12 and $25M rev share is wise given a paltry $4M from the NBE. Any school in the NBE would move in a second if they could unless they are philosophically committed to being poor.

 

[shizzle787]

Word on the street is they are going to pick up Memphis and Boise State. The conference will be plenty strong and they may move even further on a super conference with a projected $25M revenue share. So, I'm not sure dumping on the Big12 and $25M rev share is wise given a paltry $4M from the NBE. Any school in the NBE would move in a second if they could unless they are philosophically committed to being poor.

I don't think they will add any more. It would be a revenue hit to split the pie 14 ways instead of 12. Also, I don't think the Big 12 is only going to lose 10-20% of their current contract. I personally believe it will be closer to 30-40%.

 

[BapeKidd88]

Nobody wants Uconn when are people going to realize it? The party is over! Uconn is where they are going to be.

This is true.

Dave Benedict is like 'One-Eyed Willie' in "The Goonies".

When he chose the nuclear football option, he effectively barricaded UConn into a non-P5 Cave.

And that's where UConn sports will rest... forever.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

And as such, we should have no longings for it.

The Big 12 will remain (and possibly improve) a major basketball league. It will NOT be a P4 league because it lacks 1) major brands and 2) a perennial top 10 team.

If you look at each of the P4 conferences, they have the #1 and #2 teams brand-wise in most states.

Pac-12:
CA:1-4
AZ:1-2
OR:1-2
WA:1-2 (Gonzaga doesn't play football)
CO:1
UT: 2 (BYU has a bigger brand than Utah)

ACC:
FL: 2-3
GA: 2
SC: 1
NC: 1-4
KY: 2 (Kentucky and Louisville are basically a toss-up but tie goes to flagship)
VA: 1-2
NY: 1
MA: 1
PA: 2

B1G:
WI: 1
MN: 1
IA: 1
IL: 1-2
MI: 1-2
OH: 1
IN: 2-3
NE: 1
MD: 1
PA: 1
NJ: 1

SEC:
TX: 1-2
OK: 1
MO: 1
AR: 1
TN: 1,3 (Memphis is probably #2 ahead of Vandy)
KY: 1
GA: 1
FL: 1
MS: 1-2
LA: 1
AL: 1-2
SC: 2

And then the Big 12 (notice something different):
UT: 1
KS: 1-2
WV: 1
OK: 2
FL: 4
TX: 3-6
IA: 2
OH: 2

41% of the schools in the new Big 12 are not in the top 2 brands in their state and only 3 of the schools are the #1 brand in their states. The only really good brands in the conference are BYU, WVU, Kansas, and maybe Oklahoma State. On top of that, the three states where they have the #1 brand are small states.

Yet, they will make more than double the money we do annually. People here act like our AD isn't running major deficits. We cannot compete as a big-time program while making pennies on the dollar.

 

[UConnJim]

UConn is just not a geographical fit for the Big 12. Here are the air miles to Dallas (I picked one location in the Big 12) from each expansion candidate.

224 Houston
431 Memphis
641 Colorado St.
812 Cincinnati
929 USF
985 UCF
989 BYU
1061 ECU
1171 San Diego St.
1272 Boise St.
1471 UConn


By the way, for all of you who thought AAC travel was bad, here are the flight distances to the Big 12 schools from Hartford:

411 West Virginia
661 Cincinnati
979 Iowa State
1050 UCF
1169 Kansas
1273 Kansas State
1415 Oklahoma State
1471 TCU
1507 Houston
1529 Baylor
1684 Texas Tech
2026 BYU

Remember, a Big 12 move would be for all sports. How do these travel distances make any sense for UConn or the Big 12?

 

[Adios]

Why are we discussing D1 football? Let's talk about reigniting our rivalries with Wesleyan and Trinity. And also hire Connecticut College's soccer coach. Can't wait to play Coast Guard along the Thames.

 

[Bongo Fury]

The ACC might have to pick up UCONN to elevate their BB . Big 12 is looking strong in BB. UCONN/Duke, UCONN/Cuse and UCONN/ND rivalries!

 

[BapeKidd88]

The networks are all steering the Big 12 expansion (with the steady hand of Oliver Luck).

 

[shizzle787]

The networks are all steering the Big 12 expansion (with the steady hand of Oliver Luck).

View attachment 69691

The first part is probably true but this Swaim guy is notoriously unreliable.

 

[Pudge]

Had 11 years to right the ship! It’s over!

You are only talking football right?

We will have another MBB National Championship before whatever school you root for. And we are likely going to - once again - have a MBB & WBB double hoop national championship parade again. So ... shrug. Football can be fixed

 

[Smp7598]

You are only talking football right?

We will have another MBB National Championship before whatever school you root for. And we are likely going to - once again - have a MBB & WBB double hoop national championship parade again. So ... shrug. Football can be fixed

I have been following this board forever and all I hear is football is all that matters!

 

[Pudge]

I have been following this board forever and all I hear is football is all that matters!

pffffffffffffft

You - with your 24 posts - have finally krept out of your kerflunkt Kave.

 

[How Sway?!]

Word on the street is they are going to pick up Memphis and Boise State. The conference will be plenty strong and they may move even further on a super conference with a projected $25M revenue share. So, I'm not sure dumping on the Big12 and $25M rev share is wise given a paltry $4M from the NBE. Any school in the NBE would move in a second if they could unless they are philosophically committed to being poor.

There's no way the new B12 gets anywhere close to $25MM per school. Maybe $15MM. If we were to join that conference, the travel costs would dig into any extra revenue we would get.

 

[shizzle787]

There's no way the new B12 gets anywhere close to $25MM per school. Maybe $15MM. If we were to join that conference, the travel costs would dig into any extra revenue we would get.

My guess is between 17-18 million all in.

 

[UConnJim]

My guess is between 17-18 million all in.

There are other revenue sources that could dry up for the Big 12. Right now, the Big 12 is contracted with the Sugar Bowl to play an SEC team. An expanded playoff could roll in the major bowls meaning the Big 12 could go from a playoff spot plus the Sugar Bowl to just getting a playoff spot.

 

[Adios]

The Big 12 is essentially a "flyover" version of the ACC that expands 2000 miles. And has Mormons and Protestants as opposed to Catholics.

They'd be stupid to not add Memphis and Boise State right now.

 

[Kolumbo]

The author also has some interesting comments after the article.

"Refusing to expand the Playoff hurts the SEC mildly, but the SEC will be fine, because its conference champion will always make the four-team Playoff. And refusing to expand the Playoff probably hurts the other three leagues more than it helps them, except in one key aspect: it pretty much kills off the Big 12, or at least it makes the conference non-viable as a “power” conference. And by refusing to expand, the Big 10, Pac-12, and ACC effectively just put the screws to the remaining Big 12 members. Whenever Texas and Oklahoma officially depart the Big 12 for the SEC, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia will no longer be considered among the Haves of the sport. They’ll be sharing a league with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, four schools that the Haves very much want you to know are the Have-Nots."

The Alliance is really about killing off the Big 12 - Anchor Of Gold

 

[huskymedic]

In any respect… done deal.

 

[Yup!]

In any respect… done deal.

It’s aggravating that we’re still out.

 

[Pudge]

nahhh

it is what it is

O. I am happy for the Cincinnati Bearcats

 

[Jimdish255]

We don't belong in the Big12. Sure it would have been a nice escape hatch a few years ago but they weren't serious with the dog and pony show. Let's hire a decent coach and win some games. Improving the program and getting a couple of signature wins helps elevate the entire AD. And our status as a FB Independent means very few strings attached if the right conference shows interest. In the meantime just right the ship. It will improve the scheduling, improve our revenue stream and contracts in the future.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[How Sway?!]

Any news on how the additions would affect the current TV contract? I remember reading that the B12 TV partners did not have to pro rate the existing contract, so would that mean that the individual payouts to each school would decrease to accommodate the new schools?

 

[UConnJim]

What's interesting about this news is that Texas and Oklahoma may be leaving early for the SEC and they will negotiate an exit fee. The remaining Big 12 schools are probably realizing that moving forward with the new conference is more important than dragging the exit out.

 

[UCFBfan]

In any respect… done deal.

Time to see what dregs the AAC backfills with....I'm going UAB, Coastal Carolina, ODU, and Marshall.....if not Marshall, I can see a FIU or FAU to replace UCF.

I'll be interested to see if Navy stays on board. This is also really leaving Temple out to dry. They are the only team north of the Mason Dixon line now

 

[History Geek]

Time to see what dregs the AAC backfills with....I'm going UAB, Coastal Carolina, ODU, and Marshall.....if not Marshall, I can see a FIU or FAU to replace UCF.

I'll be interested to see if Navy stays on board. This is also really leaving Temple out to dry. They are the only team north of the Mason Dixon line now

Iwould not be surprised if Temple and Navy joined us as independents. Navy’s Olympic sports are already parked elsewhere. For Temple it might be harder but I think its time to think about it.

 

[Slasher]

My guess is between 17-18 million all in.

You realize the Big 12 gets $67 million a year just from the playoff right? Add in 7-8 bowl game payouts at probably ~$10M payout, that's roughly $6.5M a year just from extras. They also get $337,141 per NCAA tournament credit, for just the 2021 tournament they got 18 credits for a total of $6M. So they're getting $7M a year before a single TV dollar. The Big 12 also gives their T3 rights to the individual schools. So you really think their TV payout INCLUDING T3 is only going to be $10-11M per team per year? Hell the AAC is getting $7M.

The per year distribution will be at least 22M and possibly up to 25M on an ongoing basis. Plus they get to split whatever Texas / Oklahoma is going to pay out.

 

[Yup!]

You realize the Big 12 gets $67 million a year just from the playoff right? Add in 7-8 bowl game payouts at probably ~$10M payout, that's roughly $6.5M a year just from extras. They also get $337,141 per NCAA tournament credit, for just the 2021 tournament they got 18 credits for a total of $6M. So they're getting $7M a year before a single TV dollar. The Big 12 also gives their T3 rights to the individual schools. So you really think their TV payout INCLUDING T3 is only going to be $10-11M per team per year? Hell the AAC is getting $7M.

The per year distribution will be at least 22M and possibly up to 25M on an ongoing basis. Plus they get to split whatever Texas / Oklahoma is going to pay out.

The big 12 is still a p5 conference, it’s not as strong with Texas Oklahoma gone but there’s still some really good teams in that conference.

 

[UCFBfan]

Iwould not be surprised if Temple and Navy joined us as independents. Navy’s Olympic sports are already parked elsewhere. For Temple it might be harder but I think its time to think about it.

I thought about that for Temple as well.... however, I can't see them trying to park the rest of their sports in the A-10 (if they'd have them back). We get decent money being in the BE. Temple makes more being in the AAC than they word if they went Indy and moved Olympic sports to the A-10.

 

[Hoophound]

I thought about that for Temple as well.... however, I can't see them trying to park the rest of their sports in the A-10 (if they'd have them back). We get decent money being in the BE. Temple makes more being in the AAC than they word if they went Indy and moved Olympic sports to the A-10.

For now. The AAC numbers are going down.