The Battle for Playing Time & a Spot on the Rotation

[oldude]

During each of the past 3 seasons, UConn suffered a series of devastating injuries to key players which effectively hamstrung their efforts to win Championship #12. Last year was the worst by far as the Huskies finished the season with only 7 healthy players, an effective rotation of 6; and yet UConn came within 1 play of making the national championship game in what was both a heroic and tragic season.

Last season, when it came to decisions about who would play and how long, Geno had it easy. As he said several times about his players, “They don’t have to worry about making mistakes, because I have no one to replace them with.”

Fast forward to the 2024-25 season. What a difference a year makes. UConn fields one of its deepest and most talented rosters ever, with 12 healthy players currently vying for PT and spots in the regular rotation. Geno will earn his pay this year, and while he has indicated that he knows what his rotation will look like once we get to March, he has resisted all requests from the media to tell us what that rotation will be. Personally, I think he knows mostly what that rotation will look like. But I also think he is still puzzling over a couple of decisions on the final rotation spots.

To the credit of the players, they are making it very difficult for Geno and his coaches to finalize the rotation, with both their play in games as well as their efforts in practice. In past years, we have gotten used to seeing the wheels come off once UConn starts to sub in for the starters. Not so this year. UConn’s execution is pretty darn good throughout the game, even during mop-up time.

There is a reason why UConn continues to cut, screen, pass and score effectively, regardless of who is on the court. The Huskies roster includes no less than 7 HS PG’s: Paige, Kaitlyn, KK, Azzi, Ash, Morgan & Allie. In addition, both Aubrey & Sarah were the primary ball handlers for their teams while leading their respective HS’s in both scoring and assists. That’s a hell of a lot of basketball IQ for a single roster.

During the next month or so, Geno has to make some decisions. In past seasons, when he had some depth, Geno has typically capped his tournament rotation at 7-8 players. Whether he goes beyond that total will be dependent somewhat on the opponent and the situation encountered. I will give you my take on the factors that I believe will impact those decisions, with a couple of assumptions: 1) I assume that everyone remains healthy & 2) Neither Ayanna or Caroline will factor into the lineup decisions.

STARTERS

• Paige, Azzi & Sarah – With the possible exception of ND, I don’t believe there is another team in the country that can field 3 G/W’s with the ability to score, pass and defend like UConn’s 3-headed monster. These players will be the core of UConn’s title run this year, and their PT will ramp up once we get into March.
• Jana – Geno has made the clear decision that to win #12, he will need a post player with the size and ability to battle the likes of UCLA, USC, SC, etc. Jana is on a crash course to be ready by March, and she continues to get a little better each and every game.
• Kaitlyn – Up until the Villanova game at Gampel, I felt that the starting pg job was still up for grabs, with both KK & Ash still in the running to be the 5th starter. But after Kaitlyn’s break out performance against the Wildcats, Kaitlyn has locked up the job, imo.

GUARDS – RESERVES

• KK - While Kaitlyn is PG 1, KK is clearly PG 1A and will share the pg duties for the rest of the season. KK brings a change of pace off the bench as a fierce on-ball defender, and she has ramped up her ability to attack the basket and score. In addition, KK has one of the best A/TO ratios in the nation.
• Ash – Ash is not only UConn’s best scorer off the bench, but she has dramatically improved her on-ball defense this season and she is second only to Paige as a rebounding guard, on a team that needs all the help it can get on the boards.
• Allie – Under most circumstances, Allie wouldn’t really figure into this year’s rotation. But you just can’t rule out someone who can shoot the basketball like Allie. It was suggested that Allie releases the ball faster than Azzi and just as accurately. In a tight game, there just might be an opportunity for Geno to slide Allie onto the court to drop a couple of 3-pt bombs.

FORWARDS – RESERVES

• Morgan – More than any other player, Morgan has forced her way into this conversation. She is currently the 1st forward off the bench, typically subbing in for Jana. Morgan plays defense, rebounds, passes like a pg, scores a little and hits the floor more often than a WWE wrestler. With that said, for Morgan to lock up a spot in the rotation, I believe she must become a more consistent scorer. If Morgan can start knocking down 3’s, she gives UConn a 5th scorer on their small lineup, which would create nightmares for opposing teams.
• Ice – Ice has lost PT to both Jana and Morgan. To her enormous credit, she has not sulked or accepted the possibility of getting buried on the bench. In the last few games her play has improved significantly at both ends of the court. In March, when UConn faces opponents with big frontlines, I believe that Ice must be part of the rotation.
• Aubrey – When healthy, Aubrey is UConn’s best defender and rebounder, and no one runs the court in transition like she does. She is the X factor. Geno is bringing Aubrey along slowly. But she is yet another Husky who must figure into a championship run.
• Q – Q is the one player that does not project to be in the rotation, at this time. But you never know. Just last year she came into a key situation during the Elite 8 game vs USC and splashed a BIG 3.

We should get a pretty good sense of where Geno is going with his rotation in the upcoming games with TN & SC, although that may not be the final determination. IMO, UConn’s postseason rotation will be 8-9 players deep and will include: Paige, Azzi, Sarah, Jana, Kaitlyn, KK, Ash, Ice (+Aubrey if we go 9 deep). Leaving Morgan out of my rotation was really hard, and I have no doubt that I will receive a lot of grief for that decision. What do you think? Tell me how deep the rotation will be and who will be part of it?

 

[sun]

You're so right that there's not much to dispute or add.
I think that everyone is going to continue to get opportunities to play throughout the BET because it's important that every player keeps their skills fresh & not regress in the event that there's a late season injury(s), no matter how minor.
That also keeps Geno's options open for the NCAAT, as far as which players are playing better than others & have more momentum & motivation being displayed on the court.

One of the biggest questions for me is Aubrey.
I think that she's more of a specialist unless she can prove that she possesses more of the all around abilites that are required of deserving more PT verses less PT compared to other players such as Morgan & Ice.
I believe that these are game time management decisions.
Geno can have someone penciled in but if & when the team falls behind or stagnates then Geno can just as easily use his eraser & pencil them out.

Whatever the moment requires the most is what Geno needs to figure out, and that's not necessarily predictable.
I suspect that there will be some bumps & bruises that will help Geno figure out which players get penciled in or out & when.
Coaches that use analytics may come to different conclusions than those who coach using more of their gut.
I don't see any player receiving the hook this early., not when Aubrey's performance & readiness is up in the air.

 

[huskeynut]

The starters: Paige, Kaitlyn, Azzi, Sarah and Jana.

The subs: Ash and KK for sure. Now it becomes tricky. Morgan is probably one and I think Ice has to be one.

I would put Aubrey on the list but right now, she still has to get in gamer shape.

I would not be surprised if Geno went 10 deep for games.

 

[JoePgh]

@oldude , you say that it was really hard to leave Morgan out of your rotation. I think Geno's substitution patterns recently have made it clear that he found that so hard that he didn't do it. As noted previously, Morgan now seems to be the first forward off the bench, before Ice. When she enters the game, Sarah switches to the 5 and that (with whatever guard/wing combination is playing) becomes the UConn small lineup. Against Villanova at Gampel, she did NOT play in garbage time, which I think is another indication that she is in the rotation as much as anyone other than the Big 3.

Certainly, when and if Aubrey becomes "the old Aubrey", that may change. But other than that, I think Morgan's place in the rotation is locked up.

 

[Topsail]

I agree with most of what you are thinking . I think the jury is still out on ICE, Morgan and Aubrey. Morgan does a lot of things well but is not asked to score with all of the other scorers in the line up. The last part of the rotation will not be decided until March. I think Allie and Q will sit the March rotation out.

 

[oldude]

The starters: Paige, Kaitlyn, Azzi, Sarah and Jana.

The subs: Ash and KK for sure. Now it becomes tricky. Morgan is probably one and I think Ice has to be one.

I would put Aubrey on the list but right now, she still has to get in gamer shape.

I would not be surprised if Geno went 10 deep for games.

10 deep is hard when you’re playing in a tight game. If you assume that the Big 3 average around 35 minutes each, Kaitlyn and KK split the pg duties and Jana gets at least 20 minutes, that leaves you with only 35 minutes of PT to split among 4 players: Ash, Ice, Morgan & Aubrey.

During last night’s postgame presser, Geno talked about the need to get his “primary players” more minutes. Unless you go into OT, there are only 200 minutes of PT to dole out each game.

 

[Topsail]

Let s be realistic they are all cognizant of the situation To improve as fast as possible or be left on the bench as the season wears on.

 

[oldhusky]

The way I see it, 7 is the absolute minimum with KK and Ashlynn off the bench. I would be shocked if it was only 7, however, and I expect it to be much bigger. Next in line if we go 8 is Aubrey who if healthy is not just better than Ice and Morgan IMO, but possibly even this year's version of KK and Ashlynn. Since she can play the 3 or 4, the rotation could end at 8, but that would require Sarah to play at the 5 when Jana wasn't in.

Going to 9 or 10 may give Geno more help at the 4 and 5 in Ice, or the wing and a small ball 4 in Morgan. I am hoping for 10 as described, but suspect even if her goes that route the first 8 will consume almost all the minutes, and 9 and 10 will be more situational and maybe only 5 minutes a game.

 

[yhun89]

From what I notice, Ice does drastically better come tournament season, so perhaps…

She is the walking talking personification of “pressure makes diamonds.”

 

[cgshuskie]

I, for one, believe that Morgan is a part of the rotation. I'd like to see her score more
and I believe she can do that if asked to. With each BE game, her confidence and experience
improves. I can even see her playing with the big three in March. Her or Shade? Also, I
think Allie is gaining credence as a spot up shooter and may be used by Geno, especially
to scare opponents. I'd personally give Allie a chance. Finally, Aubrey appears to be on
a course to be ready for March. I hope so!! If so, she can do it!!!!

 

[Cornell Lt]

As stated in some posts, Morgan has earned her spot off the bench and I don't see it changing moving forward. She's multi dimensional and performs very well for a Freshman.

 

[EricLA]

I think we will get a better feel after the Creighton game. Aubs is just coming back and while she hasn't done much, or played extended minutes, we all know what she's capable of.

I think a lot of folks nailed it -

1. Starters - Paige, Azzi, Sarah, Jana, Kaitlyn
2. First reserves off the bench AT THIS TIME - Morgan, KK, Ash
3. Reserves with some question marks - Aubrey, Ice, Allie
4. End of bench - Qadence

I think for sure Aubrey moves from 3 to 2. In a big game, does that mean 9? Geno hasn't gone that deep in years, but he's also never had this kind of quality depth. I think in a big game he could go a legit 10 - with only Allie and Q not getting in, but there has been a fair amount of improvement and shifting this season that I don't know what to predict come March...

 

[cancontent]

10 deep is hard when you’re playing in a tight game. If you assume that the Big 3 average around 35 minutes each, Kaitlyn and KK split the pg duties and Jana gets at least 20 minutes, that leaves you with only 35 minutes of PT to split among 4 players: Ash, Ice, Morgan & Aubrey.

During last night’s postgame presser, Geno talked about the need to get his “primary players” more minutes. Unless you go into OT, there are only 200 minutes of PT to dole out each game.

Agreed, but also having the ability to do so in other games when it isn't, is a good thing too. Some teams don't seem to have that luxury this season from what I'm observing.

 

[packwrap]

Nice analysis.

I have no issues at point. Both Caitlyn and KK are good with different strengths and styles. Pick one, platoon, all good.

In the front court, Sarah is a lock, but who to pair her with?

Let's say we play SC and must defend Kitts, Feagin and Edwards. Do we go with Sarah and Jana for height? Aubrey and Sarah for foot quickness, leaping, defense?, or Morgan and Sarah for hustle and an extra 3 PT shooter?

I'm still concerned that Jana and Ice will get beaten on defense in this situation, and not able to score on offense. My hope is to be wrong about this, but it's the main thing I'm watching vs upcoming TN and SC.

If that is the case, both Aubrey or Morgan in the small line up can both defend taller players, rebound and score in/over the paint. Small, but tough and versatile might be the option.

I am still a big believer in both Jana and Ice. Ice has the big game experience from Duke, USC and Iowa last year, where she stepped up. Jana improves every game. Both Jana and Ice have the potential to be mobile, physical posts with an outside shot. Two months to go, will they be ready in 2025 for SC, TX, LSU, UCLA or next year?

 

[Centerstream]

I think that the first off the bench will be KK, Ashlynn and then a toss up right now between Morgan and Aubrey. What concerns me about both players is how quickly Aubrey regains her form and if she does, she will definitely be one of the first three off the bench. My hesitation with Morgan is she seems reluctant to take a shot. Lately she seems to be less aggressive in scoring but definitely makes up for it with her picks and passing. On defense she is holding her own but if Aubrey regains her prior season's form, she has to be on the floor and should cut into Morgan's time.
I'm assuming that by tournament time, unless dictated by foul trouble, Geno will stick to an eight player rotation for most of the first three quarters.
Hopefully the early round games will allow 12 (or 13?) players to all get playing time.

 

[Bigboote]

I think Old Dude has summed things up well. I have one point that could go into at least a couple of current threads, and since I'm here:

South Carolina's front line just isn't that big. Of their three primaries, Kitts is 6-2, Feagan 6-3, and Edwards 6-3 (Dauda and Tac don't play much). They've got speed and hops, though. I think Aubrey, if fully healthy, will be a key to keeping them under control. Sarah is well-suited to play against them, so you're left with Jana, Ice, and possibly Morgan to fill the other forward spot.

UCLA and Betts are a whole-nother story. Ayoka Lee's status for the dance is unknown at this point. I'm not sure there's another really good team with a good big that some combination of Sarah, Jana, and Ice would have a lot of trouble with.

 

[Jonathan14]

Lots of great analysis here. As the last couple of games have shown us, we are fortunate this year to have an embarrassment of riches compared to the last few seasons, where we've limped into the postseason bruised and, in Aaliyah's case, broken. With the possible exception of Q, whom I adore and wish every good thing for, I see a situation where every player has a legitimate case for playing time, even vs. the South Carolinas and UCLAs of the world.

I'm high on Morgan, like many here, but if Aubrey regains a decent amount of her prior form (and just watching her leap for rebounds gives me hope!), I think she will become the first forward off the bench. She's just too impactful in too many places that I think will be essential to a postseason run (rebounding, defense, pressing, press-breaking, etc.) to be left out of the main rotation. I also don't see Ice falling out of the rotation, especially against big lineups where Geno might not be as successful with the smaller lineup or if Jana or, heaven forbid, Sarah gets into foul trouble.

 

[topogigio]

All great points in each post. I'm going to add one more thought, Aubrey. If she can use the next two months to get herself in game shape, and can perform as she did when 100% healthy, I would consider her in a starting position in early round NCAA rounds against smaller, road runner type teams. She has the experience, size and skill to fit the bill in those situations where a big, big might not be the best choice.

 

[HuskyNan]

From what I notice, Ice does drastically better come tournament season, so perhaps…

She is the walking talking personification of “pressure makes diamonds.”

Maybe she’s another Miss March, like Willnett Crockett

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent post, @oldude. Lots to think about, and there’s already been a bunch of thoughtful responses.

For me, the term ‘rotation’ means the players who get minutes when victory is still in doubt. Against Tennessee and SC and in the 3rd round of the tournament, there probably won’t be a lot of those minutes to share. But otherwise, all 7 nonstarters will see some minutes, though for some mainly at the end of games.

I agree that the starters look to be pretty much set in stone at this point. I also have a hard time imagining Geno leaving Ash KK and Ice off the rotation. And if Aubrey can return to mid-season form, she’s also seems like a lock. That’s 9, and I can’t readily recall a year in which his tournament rotation was larger than this. But 9 seems possible.

So, the only question remaining is whether he will make room for 1 or 2 more this season. I suspect he’s trying to keep every option open as long as possible, especially for Morgan. He’s made her integral to his small lineup, effectively playing the ‘Aubrey’ spot. She’s gotten lots of reps and has had time to learn how to play small-ball defense. She’s not nearly as athletic as Aubrey at her peak, but she’s a better ball handler and passer. So there’s reason to think she can stick if Geno makes room for 10. It’s also hard to imagine that he isn’t preparing her for a much more substantial role next season.

It’s harder to see a path into the tournament rotation for Allie and Q. But it’s not impossible. The sign I look for is PT with the starters, and so far only Morgan is getting this. If Allie gets minutes with Paige or Sarah or Azzi, maybe in the first half of games, that’s the sign Geno is trying to get her ready. It’s not enough to shoot well or play good D. They also need chemistry with the starters, and that requires reps. This is because the ‘Big Three’ will be on the floor a lot more in the tournament. Allie shoots really well and her D is improving. But you can see that she doesn’t always fit in with the 4th quarter players. Q is even further from achieving real chemistry and still occasionally looks lost on the court.

There’s a clue to what Geno values in his current apparent preference for Morgan. If she were to get more minutes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Allie regularly outscore Morgan. What Morgan brings seems to matter more to Geno than scoring, since he gets a lot of that elsewhere. My guess: Morgan is big and quick and she’s an energetic pest. She fights for rebounds and loose balls. She’s disruptive. She can also score, but this isn’t currently her best thing. Geno may also value her excellent handles.

My prediction: he goes with 10 as long as he can. But in the last 2 or 3 rounds, there may be a contraction to 9 or even 8.

 

[Next 12]

All the posts were insightful and in formative. I do not have the expertise of above, but I would like to stick my 2-cents in. I believe Uconn should keep playing all players up until the actual NCAA games. The more they play the more experience they gain.Play the frosh in the 1st and second qtr. Let them get the feel of the game and the other players on the floor.Ashlynn and KK were spectacular last year as freshmen because they played every game. Ash scored 419 points and KK scored 347 points as rookies. They had it in them to excel. I believe on this team there are players ready to excel like last year. I do not see any team that can beat Oconn in the BE. So all we have to worry about is the NCAA games. Uconn has consistantly played their best in the NC and I believe they will this year. I'm going to wait until then and continue watching Uconn play the schedule and enjoy every game. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!

 

[Zarathustra]

All the posts were insightful and in formative. I do not have the expertise of above, but I would like to stick my 2-cents in. I believe Uconn should keep playing all players up until the actual NCAA games. The more they play the more experience they gain.Play the frosh in the 1st and second qtr. Let them get the feel of the game and the other players on the floor.Ashlynn and KK were spectacular last year as freshmen because they played every game. Ash scored 419 points and KK scored 347 points as rookies. They had it in them to excel. I believe on this team there are players ready to excel like last year. I do not see any team that can beat Oconn in the BE. So all we have to worry about is the NCAA games. Uconn has consistantly played their best in the NC and I believe they will this year. I'm going to wait until then and continue watching Uconn play the schedule and enjoy every game. GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!

However, I also believe that Geno will probably want to use a lot of the remaining schedule of games to work on the chemistry and the timing among the starters and primary "rotation" players. Otherwise, I agree with NEXT 12. GO HUSKIES!

 

[Bone Dog]

One example of how the rotation gets shortened can be seen in the 2021-22 season. The injury to Paige disrupted the rotation for the middle stretch of the season and it fluctuated between 6 and 9.

Once Paige had returned, he took a 9 player rotation into the tournament, though in the Mercer game, Amari and Piath got a few minutes too. After the NC State game, which went to 2 overtimes, it was reduced to 8 with Dorka’s injury, though Caroline’s minutes also contracted from her increasing hip pain.

Against Stanford, he played 7 +Caroline for only 8 mins. In the NC finals, with Azzi, Caroline and Liv not at 100% and Dorka out, Amari got 4 mins. In effect, Geno played 8 +Amari.

By contrast, in the 2015-16 season, the last undefeated season, Geno‘s rotation was 8 then 7 for most of the season. This was a group that was able to get a full season’s worth of reps and were pretty much unstoppable going into the tournament.

One thing this suggests to me is that Geno has great depth this season. But this comes with a cost in reps and chemistry for the main rotation. When there is no drop off in the crispness of the passing or the switching on defense no matter who’s on the floor, that’s a direct result of having a short rotation early on and throughout. This season, Geno is trying to build chemistry in a still fluctuating roster at the end of January, and will probably still be working on this by the end of February. It would be wonderful if it all came together for a magical tournament — fingers crossed — but this is an added hurdle for the team. When the bottom 5 of our roster is on the floor together there is a notable rise in turnovers and a decline in crisp passing and tight defense.

 

[BBallF]

I will make this brief. It depends upon our defense. If we press for most of the game, as we should, then you are talking 10 players a game. If you press, you have to use Aubrey, KK, Ash and Morgan. So who's out, Ice? Need her to give a spell to Jana since Morgan does not have the same presence as Ice in the 5 slot. Allie becomes the question mark because of her defense.

 

[JellyBean]

Great comments by everyone. I agree with everyone about the starters. I can see a 10 player rotation.