The AAC's OOC lightweights are killing us...

[7774]

Yes, because finding a 100s OOC game in the sea of 300-rated-teams is a bit hard. See how that works?

So - since everyone is pointing at the Houston L - let's see how this impacts vs OOC SOS:

UConn now - 69 RPI / 70 SOS
w/ Houston flipped to W: 54 / 63

Now, I'll replace Houston completely with a 2nd instance of South Florida (similar RPI, 186 OOC SOS)
UConn now (ie swap @Houston L for an @USF L) - 68/63
w/ @USF flipped to W: 54/63

Our SOS jumps 10 points based on 1 away game for teams that are both essentially the same, minus OOC SOS. The RPI stays flat because it impacts the bigger measure of RPI (opponent W/L is 50%, and we would play them twice, vs once for Houston) Extrapolate this across the whole conference, and you can see where I'm going.
It's not a perfect calculation (knock-on impact of flipping the game), but i would call this a statistically significant "net impact"

A lot of this doesn't make sense to me. Why would our strength of schedule improve based upon changing a Houston loss to a win?

 

[tzznandrew]

A lot of this doesn't make sense to me. Why would our strength of schedule improve based upon changing a Houston loss to a win?

Because, I presume, when he ran the scenario it calculated the next two games--Memphis and @Temple. You can't just flip it in RPIforecast--it will forecast all the way to the end regardless.

 

[7774]

Because, I presume, when he ran the scenario it calculated the next two games--Memphis and @Temple. You can't just flip it in RPIforecast--it will forecast all the way to the end regardless.

OK, thanks.

 

[pepband99]

Correct, but kept it same for all calcs.

Aaaaand - you just made me realize that I'm not going to able to do this with one game. Sigh. I might be completely wrong, too. Let me see if i can come up with something...

 

[whaler11]

Yes, because finding a 100s OOC game in the sea of 300-rated-teams is a bit hard. See how that works?

So - since everyone is pointing at the Houston L - let's see how this impacts vs OOC SOS:

UConn now - 69 RPI / 70 SOS
w/ Houston flipped to W: 54 / 63

Now, I'll replace Houston completely with a 2nd instance of South Florida (similar RPI, 186 OOC SOS)
UConn now (ie swap @Houston L for an @USF L) - 68/63
w/ @USF flipped to W: 54/63

Our SOS jumps 10 points based on 1 away game for teams that are both essentially the same, minus OOC SOS. The RPI stays flat because it impacts the bigger measure of RPI (opponent W/L is 50%, and we would play them twice, vs once for Houston) Extrapolate this across the whole conference, and you can see where I'm going.
It's not a perfect calculation (knock-on impact of flipping the game), but i would call this a statistically significant "net impact"

Literally none of that makes any sense but whatevs.

 

[whaler11]

1/2 of RPI is your opponents winning percentage. 1/4 is their opponents winning percentage.

It's not weighted for home/road.

So if you flip Tulane and Houston wins to losses against better teams... those teams are going to have to be a hell of a lot better because their record is weighed half as much as Tulane and Houston's.

Teams ranked 150-200 are not going to make up that gap at all, nevermind make it a meaningful net positive.

 

[Fishy]

The OP's point was dead on before it got sidetracked by some nitwit yelling "BUT YALE!"

The bottom half of this conference needs to be told by Aresco that they can't do business like a mid-major.

 

[pepband99]

Sorry I deleted once i realized i misread, and just before you posted. I can admit when I'm wrong.

 

[MattMang23]

The answer for us is to win our games. Yes our conference mates should schedule better but if we won any of our games vs Stanford, Duke or West Virginia and beat Yale and Houston as we should have, we would be solidly in the field.