Tennessee vs Notre Dame Analysis

[UConnCat]

Great analysis, DD.

I'm very interested in how Tenn's guards play. Diggins has had her way against Tenn the past 2 years. Massengale tends to play passively against top competition and Warlick called her out after the Stanford game. Tenn will have no chance if she plays that way tonight and doesn't force Diggins to guard her. Simmons has struggled against ND (6 for 26 in 2 games) and tonight should say a lot about her growth and maturity as a player.

Ball security and rebounding will be keys. Tenn still pounds the boards and Graves gets a lot of her points that way. ND will try to force Graves to score her points off of offensive moves. ND's quick hands should force some TOs.

I see ND pulling away and winning this one comfortably.

 

[doggydaddy]

Usually only those that deserve it, DD.....

I love the line in the movie "true lies" with Arnold and Jamie Lee Curtis.

When she finds out he is a spy.....

Helen Tasker: Have you ever killed anyone?
Harry: Yeah, but they were all bad.

 

[Jmpenn]

I don't know whether to laugh, cry or vomit.

Well laughing would be the most enjoyable for you so I would go with that.

 

[speedoo]

Great analysis, DD.

I'm very interested in how Tenn's guards play. Diggins has had her way against Tenn the past 2 years. Massengale tends to play passively against top competition and Warlick called her out after the Stanford game. Tenn will have no chance if she plays that way tonight and doesn't force Diggins to guard her. Simmons has struggled against ND (6 for 26 in 2 games) and tonight should say a lot about her growth and maturity as a player.

Ball security and rebounding will be keys. Tenn still pounds the boards and Graves gets a lot of her points that way. ND will try to force Graves to score her points off of offensive moves. ND's quick hands should force some TOs.

I see ND pulling away and winning this one comfortably.

I agree completely. I see a big mismatch at the guard position. Too many are assuming that Diggins will guard Massengale, but I think Muffett sees no need to waste Diggins defensive prowess on Massengale, who is much less the offensive threat that Simmons is. If ND can force Simmons into a bad game, ND wins big.. And I also see a real opportunity for ND to shut down their other perimeter scorer, Spani. McBride is an excellent defender and has the ability to shut her down.. That leaves Graves, and here again Muffet may choose to have her guarded by Achonwa and leave the much less effective scoring Harrison to the other ND post.

Only way TN wins this game is if ND plays their worst game in several years. Otherwise ND wins comfortably.

 

[speedoo]

I don't know whether to laugh, cry or vomit.

Maybe you are being somewhat "too fair" to TN?. Normally I agree with your analyses 100%. Not this time. If you want to know what I think, see Cat's comments above and my response to her.

 

[UConnCat]

I agree completely. I see a big mismatch at the guard position. Too many are assuming that Diggins will guard Massengale, but I think Muffett sees no need to waste Diggins defensive prowess on Massengale, who is much less the offensive threat that Simmons is. If ND can force Simmons into a bad game, ND wins big.. And I also see a real opportunity for ND to shut down their other perimeter scorer, Spani. McBride is an excellent defender and has the ability to shut her down.. That leaves Graves, and here again Muffet may choose to have her guarded by Achonwa and leave the much less effective scoring Harrison to the other ND post.

Only way TN wins this game is if ND plays their worst game in several years. Otherwise ND wins comfortably.

I think Diggins will guard Massengale. Loyd has shown she's a fine defender (she's quick and strong) and I see no reason not to put her on Simmons. I don't think McGraw wants Diggins chasing Simmons up and down the court.

 

[speedoo]

The confidence factor is huge. At the time of the Stanford game, they had just been humiliated by Baylor, so confidence was shaky at best. Now, they've had time to get many more wins against competitive teams and in hostile environments. Also, they understand their roles, where as, earlier in the season, the roles were not as clearly defined. This can only happen after playing many games together and gathering game film for evaluation. Coaches learn more about each of the players and players learn more about what's expected of them. Also, with the starting 5 logging many minutes together, chemistry is much improved. It should be a competitive game.

Good points, except I think you are being generous about "many more wins against competitive teams and in hostile environments."
Since the Stanford loss, only game that fits into that category is South Carolina.. One is not many.

 

[speedoo]

I think Diggins will guard Massengale. Loyd has shown she's a fine defender (she's quick and strong) and I see no reason not to put her on Simmons. I don't think McGraw wants Diggins chasing Simmons up and down the court.

OK, I was thinking the same, but I was not sure about Loyd's defense.

 

[stwainfan]

If these two were playing tonight http://instagr.am/p/VAFSZxJBNC/

 

[Bestiarius]

Big difference between #2 and #9. Doing well against lesser opponents gives one a false sense of confidence. I expect ND to win easily. Duke thought they were pretty good too, until..... That said, since the splat with Chatt, they have made a nice comeback.

 

[magical2]

This one was too good to pass up. The two most disliked teams on this board. Should be fun to watch and discuss afterwards.

Overview – Both ND and Tennessee come into this game hot. ND has won 13 in a row and Tennessee has won 9 in a row. Something obviously has to give. Last year ND beat Tennessee 72-44. Two years ago they beat Tennessee 73-59 in the elite eight.

Players lost – Tennessee – Stricklen, Johnson, Bass, Baugh, Manning.ND- Peters, Novosel, Mallory

Both teams lost a lot of points and rebounds from last years rosters. And both have not missed a beat. Credit to the coaching staffs and the players for performing as such a high level.
Players added - Tennessee – Graves, Carter, Jones, Moore, Phillips. ND - Loyd, Mabrey, Cable (missed her freshman season)

Graves has been a horse for Tennessee. 2nd leading scorer and 1st in rebounding. Carter is out for the season and losing her might be a problem with any foul trouble but it hasn't slowed down Tennessee at all. Phillips has made the occasional contribution and is a terrific athlete.

Loyd has been solid for ND with the occasional great performance (Baylor). Mabrey killed Uconn with her 2 threes but has not had any consistancy having an injury earlier in the season. Cable is contributing more and is shooting 39% on 3's.

PG – Massingale 5’7” SO (8.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.3 apg) vs Diggins 5’9” SR (15.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5.6 apg)

Massingale has not performed like the top recruit that she was. She struggles both from the field and the 3 point line. She has a solid assist/to ratio. Diggins has turned it on lately but she has struggled shooting for much of the season. Difference here is defense. Massingale has difficulties keeping players in front of her and Diggins will take advantage of that.

Advantage Notre Dame

SG – Simmons 5’7” JR (17.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg) vs Loyd 5’11” FR (12.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.5 apg)

Simmons has really turned it around during this winning streak. Still taking the occasional bad shot, she has made a higher percentage of her shots the last 9 games. While she still doesn't get many assists, she has taken care of the ball. Loyd has her work cut out staying with Simmons. But Simmons will have the same problems in guarding Loyd.

Advantage Tennessee

SF – Spani 6’1” SR (9.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.1 apg) vs McBride 5’11" JR (14.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg)

Spani has also had a resurgance in the last 9 games. Shooting better and clearly feeling better. She is strong enough to stay with McBride, but not quick enough. She could get into foul trouble quickly.

Advantage Notre Dame

PF – Graves 6’2” FR (14.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.1 apg) vs Bracker 6’1” (5.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.4 apg)

Should be a good physical matchup. Graves has been just terrific this year and is a FOY candidate. Bracker has to stay tough to keep this matchup close, but Graves is just a force.

Advantage Tennessee

C – Harrison 6’3” SO (10.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.0 apg) vs Achonwa 6’3” (13.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.3 apg)

This should be a great matchup. Two improved posts going at it. Harrison is even more foul prone than Achonwa. It could be a problem for Tennessee. Harrison likes to take her shots from around the foul line out to close to the 3 point line. If it pulls Achonwa out of the paint, Graves could dominate.
Advantage Notre Dame

Bench – Tennesssee -Williams5’11” SR (5.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg),Jones 6’2” SO (4.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, .8 apg)vs Wright6’2" (4.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.0 apg), Marbrey 5'11 (4.4 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.8 apg), Cable 5'11" (5.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.0 apg)

Total stats off the bench – Tennessee – 10.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.4 apg.ND – 14.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.8 apg

This game will be decided by the starters. But both teams could get some nice performances by Williams for Tennessee and Cable for ND.

Advantage - EVEN

Coaches – Holly Warlick vs Muffet McGraw

McGraw is a heck of a coach, and will do a great job in this game in both preparation and in-game adjustments. Warlick is doing a fine job. Her team is responding to her and they winning, although winning ugly at times.

Advantage - Notre Dame

Intangibles – Home court makes a difference. ND has recent history on their side.

Advantage Tennessee

Final analysis – It's a tale of two different styles. Tennessee needs to run, run and run some more and hit the boards. While they are playing better in the half court, ND will disrupt the Tennessee offense more often than not. ND runs terrific offense sets and Tennessee will have problems defending them. Now, will Notre Dame get to the line like they do against everyone else in TBA? If there is any arena that can prevent ND from getting to the line it's there. I'm really looking forward to this. One of the teams that I love to watch lose will lose. Sadly one will also win.

Final prediction – ND will disrupte Tennessee's offense enough and gets to the line just enough to win this game in a close battle.

big fan of doggy and huge props NOT so of the 2 teams playing The good part of the final result will be that a least one of these teams will lose Wish we were playing one of these teams tonight DIDNT like the ESPN WRITE UP
ANYONE on here did
IRA

 

[rjp172]

OK, I was thinking the same, but I was not sure about Loyd's defense.

McGraw credits Loyd for holding Sugar Rodgers to season low 14 pts and without a 3pt for the first time since 2011. She got a lot of credit for holding St. John's Smith to 3pts and 1-15 fg shooting too. A few guards were on Smith, but the majority was Loyd. It's the biggest improvement in her game. Not sure she guards Simmons though.

http://www.southbendtribune.com/spo...ffed-georgetown-star-20130116,0,6839368.story

 

[Icebear]

Emotion is huge; banner raising night. ND has the ultimate emotion killer in college basketball (other than Griner) in Diggins. Ice in her veins.

.

I am no where near her veins.

 

[arty155]

I don't know whether to laugh, cry or vomit.

Well laughing would be the most enjoyable for you so I would go with that.

-Well said, Madam. I must concur.
-I believe we can all agree, vomiting is never done in good taste.

 

[choochoo]

Hoping for a good game but Tenn has not proven it can hang with the big dogs in a while. I just hope ND doesn't take them behind the shed and do you know what!!!