Tennessee 2025, part 2 | Page 21 | The Boneyard

Tennessee 2025, part 2

JellyBean said:
I am watching Coach Caldwell put an interesting roster together. Georgia teammates (Rylie Theuerkauf & Zhen Craft), Avery Mills (Liberty), Naomi White (Northern Arizona), and Harper Peterson (Stanford). The good part, the "Lady Vol" name still carries some weight around WBB, so I am sure coach and her coaching staff will continue to add pieces over the next few weeks.
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"Interesting" is definitely the right word. I've done a statistical analysis of the five players with experience playing on a college team that won't upload for some reason, but the basic gist is that while 4 out of 5 make 3s at a rate of 36.5-42.7% (and the fifth doesn't shoot from behind the arc at all); their overall FG%s range from 33-46.9; everyone plays me-ball (av. assists per game range from .1 to 2.23); and defense is almost non-existent (.1 to 1.9 steals per game and .06 to .6 blocks per game, although rebounding numbers are better at .7 to 5.3 per game, and pfs and turnovers are low). The two players with the overall best numbers are the ones transferring from non Power 4 conferences and also from schools with comparatively weak records--NAU lost twice as many games as it won this this past season.
 
JellyBean said:
I am watching Coach Caldwell put an interesting roster together. Georgia teammates (Rylie Theuerkauf & Zhen Craft), Avery Mills (Liberty), Naomi White (Northern Arizona), and Harper Peterson (Stanford). The good part, the "Lady Vol" name still carries some weight around WBB, so I am sure coach and her coaching staff will continue to add pieces over the next few weeks.
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Well, they can now put five starters and a couple of backups on the court. So, they can now qualify to basketball. So, that’s an improvement.

I don’t think her system can work in the SEC but we’ll see.
 
This "team" is going to get utterly destroyed and humiliated by the likes of South Carolina, Texas, LSU, Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss,........no way they're making the tournament and probably not even a winning record in the conference.
 
.-.
Urshurak said:
I’m wondering if this will the first year the Lady Vols don’t make the tournament. I guess we shall see.
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That would add to KC's string of records as TN head coach! (Ouch!)

While it is good that she is getting players and all the players she has gotten are decent D1 players, there is a lack of 'wow' in the signings to date. This actually strikes me as the makings of a title contender in a mid major sort of roster. And it also strikes me as the kind of line-up that is ideal for her 'system' if she adds more of the same. Press, run, and hoist the shots, rinse and repeat. No stars to complain about frequent subbing, etc.
 
fanonthesea said:
Also, the existence of positionless basketball notwithstanding, this team currently has no point guard and no center.
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Steve No GIF by Warner Bros. Pictures
 
Rooster C. said:
This "team" is going to get utterly destroyed and humiliated by the likes of South Carolina, Texas, LSU, Vandy, Kentucky, Ole Miss,........no way they're making the tournament and probably not even a winning record in the conference.
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Maybe. Maybe not. That is why they play the games. We shall see what develops.
 
ucmiami2 said:
This actually strikes me as the makings of a title contender in a mid major sort of roster. And it also strikes me as the kind of line-up that is ideal for her 'system'
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Agreed......because that's exactly what it is - a mid-major title contender. It's ideal for her "system" which is very successful at that level - but not at the P4 level. This was - and is - a bad hire for Tennessee or any program at this level. I will always give someone the benefit of the doubt but I've seen enough already to know this won't work at this level.

I watched another coach recently come up from success at the mid-major level with a "system" in place only to find out the hard way it didn't translate to the next level. They started with solid bench players from top tier programs and a handful of players (good but not great) who stayed. The really good players left and were snapped up by some of the top programs. They were competitive against most teams but not the upper level teams.
The coach adjusted going into their 2nd year by going after some very solid mid-major players and staying away as much as possible from the "one-and-done" players. They also brought in a solid recruiting class. They improved but not by much. So entering year 3 they have a returning core of starters that are familiar with the coach's "system" but everyone else left so the depth they should have had is gone. They also were no longer able to recruit any top talent. The answer? Bring in a bunch of Europeans. It has worked at other schools in the past but thanks to the "coaching carousel effect" they will probably benefit with another slight improvement this coming year, resulting in being on the "bubble" or possibly just making it into the tournament.
My point is essentially rebuilding a program from scratch takes several years of slow but meaningful steps of progression - which this coach at this program has the chance to accomplish. I don't see that happening at a program like Tennessee. Caldwell may not make it through the season imo
 
Urshurak said:
I’m wondering if this will the first year the Lady Vols don’t make the tournament. I guess we shall see.
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It is hard to project them making the tournament but the pool is shallow enough to where they don't necessarily have to beat any good teams to put themselves in conversation. So never say never.
 
I think a realistic goal for TN is to not go below .500 for next year. I don’t know what their non conference schedule would look like, but they better start looking under the couch cushions for a few consistent studs. I see some in the portal, but not many. They aren’t going .500 in the SEC next year and I have doubts they go .500 in their non conference schedule unless they reach WAY down into the bottom of D1 teams. Mulkey can help with that. 🤣 The TN brand will always get recruits to take a look, but less so with Caldwell at the helm and with a playing style that’s not popular and IMO bad for player development.
 
.-.
Gamecockfan77 said:
It is hard to project them making the tournament but the pool is shallow enough to where they don't necessarily have to beat any good teams to put themselves in conversation. So never say never.
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It seems likely that there are going to be 76 teams in the tournament next year. If that’s the case, it’s a lot easier for the Vols to make it.
 
Puppy Love said:
It seems likely that there are going to be 76 teams in the tournament next year. If that’s the case, it’s a lot easier for the Vols to make it.
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Yeah - 10+ teams from ACC, Big10, SEC, Big12, then the rest of us get the rest.
 
JellyBean said:
Maybe. Maybe not. That is why they play the games. We shall see what develops.
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Past 3 seasons for Tenn in SEC:

24 10-6 Harper Rd2
25 8-8 Caldwell Sweet16
26 8-8 Caldwell Rd1
27 ??

Going .500 in SEC will make the NCAA tourney, but even repeating that with this new transfer team will be a challenge.
 
Gamecockfan77 said:
It is hard to project them making the tournament but the pool is shallow enough to where they don't necessarily have to beat any good teams to put themselves in conversation. So never say never.
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For sure they're going to have a losing conference record so I don't see any way they're going to make the tournament. It would have to be a really bad season for the other P4 conferences for them to get in. Long shot would be as a play-in candidate but even then I just don't see it.
 
.-.
Puppy Love said:
It seems likely that there are going to be 76 teams in the tournament next year. If that’s the case, it’s a lot easier for the Vols to make it.
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It's going to be the usual 64 in the 1st round of the tournament + they're counting the existing play-in teams (8) = 72 teams + the play-in expansion by 2 more games/4 teams = 76. So nothing all that dramatic. I think that's more than enough.
 
Rooster C. said:
For sure they're going to have a losing conference record so I don't see any way they're going to make the tournament. It would have to be a really bad season for the other P4 conferences for them to get in. Long shot would be as a play-in candidate but even then I just don't see it.
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Can they beat Auburn, TAMU, Miss State, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Florida, Georgia ?

Very possibly so.
 
Rooster C. said:
It's going to be the usual 64 in the 1st round of the tournament + they're counting the existing play-in teams (8) = 72 teams + the play-in expansion by 2 more games/4 teams = 76. So nothing all that dramatic. I think that's more than enough.
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This has been widely discussed as adding eight games to the First Four for a total of 12 games with 24 teams playing in an opening round. The remaining 52 teams would get a first round bye. I’ve seen the goal stated as giving more at large bids to the power four conferences.
 
Puppy Love said:
This has been widely discussed as adding eight games to the First Four for a total of 12 games with 24 teams playing in an opening round. The remaining 52 teams would get a first round bye. I’ve seen the goal stated as giving more at large bids to the power four conferences.
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I hate it. We already have crappy teams qualifying from the Power 4/5 conferences. Again I assert that the regular season non-P schools should get auto bids whether or not they win their conference tournament.
 
packwrap said:
Past 3 seasons for Tenn in SEC:

24 10-6 Harper Rd2
25 8-8 Caldwell Sweet16
26 8-8 Caldwell Rd1
27 ??

Going .500 in SEC will make the NCAA tourney, but even repeating that with this new transfer team will be a challenge.
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In five years at Tennessee, Kellie Harper finished 3rd in the SEC four times and 4th in the SEC once.
In the 2023-24 SEC Tournament semis, Tennessee led South Carolina at the end of the game only for Kamilla Cardoso to hit a game-winning three, her first made three in her career.

I wonder what would have happened had Tennessee won that game. The Lady Vols would have faced LSU for the SEC title. Even if TN did not win, the team would likely have earned a higher seed (they had a #6 seed for the 2024 NCAAT) for defeating undefeated South Carolina -- and it might have saved Harper's job.
 
.-.
Gamecockfan77 said:
Can they beat Auburn, TAMU, Miss State, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Florida, Georgia ?

Very possibly so.
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As much as I would love to TN implode even more than they have, this is an absolutely spot on post. Auburn is in rebuild mode and just lost one of their better players to TN, Miss State is probably the strongest of the remaining set of teams as Alabama, Florida and Georgia all have new coaches. Missouri will be interesting in year 2 of Kellie. I think the buyout fees for Joni is the only thing that saved her job as she's been atrocious at A&M and I have not seen any elite HS or Portal players sign on to the Aggies. So in short, maybe MSU and Mizzou have enough to beat TN but probably not.

What does the LV OOC schedule look like next year? I see them again at .500 in SEC play, while hoping for a lot worse and I still see them making the NCAAT. Whether that actually saves her job or not is the real question.

I am bemused about how the expectations keep shifting from the LV faithful though. So @JellyBean are you really an elite WCBB program who will contend for NCAA Titles or just a good program who will make the NCAAT? It's been 18 years now since your last Final Four and you just lost your best elite HS prospect in the last 6 years. Last year at this time, the LV and media was touting how well they did in the portal and I noted how bad at shooting the signees really were. I say the same thing this year, this current lot is not elite enough shooters to elevate Caldwell's system, nor are they effective enough at ball movement to offer any real upside to warrant any real enthusiasm, it will play out and TN will not be a contender.
 
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