I’m not worried about playing Tennessee and SC in the slightest. We may lose one or both of these games. But our young players will learn a lot in them.
Tennessee is not bigger than our frontcourt (at least not by much), though Hollingshead and Spearman are more experienced and better scorers. Puckett is also an inside outside threat sort of like Sarah. I also recall that Hollingshead in particular had a very good game against Dorka and Aaliyah two seasons ago and is very capable. This will be a great challenge for Jana in particular. They have lots of pesky quick guards, but so do we. They shoot lots of 3s, but so can we. They press much of the game, but so can we. I’m expecting a win in this game, but I’m not afraid to be proven wrong in this one.
Against SC, I’m expecting a loss but hoping for a win. They are one of the favorites to win the NC and for good reason. But the margin between them and us, between #2 and #6 maybe smaller this year than in any previous one. The bigs who Dawn actually plays are not bigger than ours, maybe even a bit smaller. This hasn’t been the case in a while. But they are very athletic. The loss of Watkins was significant, but they have a very deep frontcourt. Without her, though, there’s no one in SC’s frontcourt who is completely out of Jana’s and Ice’s league. I expect they’ll be outrebounded and outscored, but not embarrassed on the court. They may even hold their own. It’s easy to underestimate how strong those two are.
Oddly, this is the second year that Dawn’s frontcourt is the best part of her team. This is a formidable squad. They shoot 3s at only a slightly lower volume and percentage as we do. An off night from the perimeter for either team could spell the difference in the game. Can we expect another 59 pt outburst from Paige Sarah and Azzi against SC’s stifling defense? I suspect we can. Can we contain PaoPao Fulwiley and Raven? This is a much more difficult question and my crystal ball has no answers.
The most fortunate thing that breaks in our favor is that Dawn can only put 5 on the court at a time. She has to make choices just like Geno. If Geno starts Paige Azzi Sarah Kaitlyn Jana as seems likely, who does Dawn put out there? Raven PaoPao Hall Kitts and Feagin is the better defensive option, though PaoPao is a liability against either Paige or Azzi, and in my view Kitts is no match for Sarah. If she plays Fulwiley instead of Hall, she gives up some defense, but gets a dynamic scorer. And if she subs Tessa for PaoPao, she gets better defense but loses some offensive punch. These are the usual compromises and they mainly come out in Dawn’s favor, but not entirely, and not by much.
Even if we lose both of these games, we gain valuable experience, for Jana and Ice, for Sarah and Ash, for Morgan and Aubrey, for Kaitlyn and KK. I leave Paige and Azzi off this list because they already have plenty of experience in these sorts of games.
