Teams that shot >50% from 3 in 1st Round | The Boneyard

Teams that shot >50% from 3 in 1st Round

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auror

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There were 7 teams that shot better than 50% on 3-pointers in the first round and first four. All were between 16 and 24 attempts.

All 7 won their games.

Double digit seeds St. Peter's (15), New Mexico St. (12), and Notre Dame (11) all won on the backs of hot shooting.

New Mexico St. shot the best percentage of all 68 teams at 64.7%. They were the 3rd lowest after the Texas schools in season 3pt% coming in..

Research has shown that outside of a few outliers (mostly zone teams like Syracuse), teams have more control over volume of 3-point shots as opposed to accuracy of opposing 3-pointers. (“3-point defense” should not be defined by opponents’ 3P% | The kenpom.com blog, Offense vs. Defense: 3-point percentage | The kenpom.com blog, One last post on 3P% defense | The kenpom.com blog)

Tennessee - Won by 30+ (14/24). Season avg - 36.5%
NMSU - Won as 12 seed (11/17) - 33.8%
St Peter's - Won as 15 seed (9/17) - 35.4%
Texas Tech - Won by 30+ (12/20) - 32.3%
Texas - Won by 8 despite opponent going 23/26 from FT (10/19) - 32.9%
Notre Dame - Won as 11 seed (10/16) - 38.1%
Arizona - Won by 17 points despite 19 turnovers (11/20) - 35.9%
 
auror said:
There were 7 teams that shot better than 50% on 3-pointers in the first round and first four. All were between 16 and 24 attempts.

All 7 won their games.

Double digit seeds St. Peter's (15), New Mexico St. (12), and Notre Dame (11) all won on the backs of hot shooting.

New Mexico St. shot the best percentage of all 68 teams at 64.7%. They were the 3rd lowest after the Texas schools in season 3pt% coming in..

Research has shown that outside of a few outliers (mostly zone teams like Syracuse), teams have more control over volume of 3-point shots as opposed to accuracy of opposing 3-pointers. (“3-point defense” should not be defined by opponents’ 3P% | The kenpom.com blog, Offense vs. Defense: 3-point percentage | The kenpom.com blog, One last post on 3P% defense | The kenpom.com blog)

Tennessee - Won by 30+ (14/24). Season avg - 36.5%
NMSU - Won as 12 seed (11/17) - 33.8%
St Peter's - Won as 15 seed (9/17) - 35.4%
Texas Tech - Won by 30+ (12/20) - 32.3%
Texas - Won by 8 despite opponent going 23/26 from FT (10/19) - 32.9%
Notre Dame - Won as 11 seed (10/16) - 38.1%
Arizona - Won by 17 points despite 19 turnovers (11/20) - 35.9%
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Good Stat. Still an unimpressive showing on our end.
 
auror said:
There were 7 teams that shot better than 50% on 3-pointers in the first round and first four. All were between 16 and 24 attempts.

All 7 won their games.

Double digit seeds St. Peter's (15), New Mexico St. (12), and Notre Dame (11) all won on the backs of hot shooting.

New Mexico St. shot the best percentage of all 68 teams at 64.7%. They were the 3rd lowest after the Texas schools in season 3pt% coming in..

Research has shown that outside of a few outliers (mostly zone teams like Syracuse), teams have more control over volume of 3-point shots as opposed to accuracy of opposing 3-pointers. (“3-point defense” should not be defined by opponents’ 3P% | The kenpom.com blog, Offense vs. Defense: 3-point percentage | The kenpom.com blog, One last post on 3P% defense | The kenpom.com blog)

Tennessee - Won by 30+ (14/24). Season avg - 36.5%
NMSU - Won as 12 seed (11/17) - 33.8%
St Peter's - Won as 15 seed (9/17) - 35.4%
Texas Tech - Won by 30+ (12/20) - 32.3%
Texas - Won by 8 despite opponent going 23/26 from FT (10/19) - 32.9%
Notre Dame - Won as 11 seed (10/16) - 38.1%
Arizona - Won by 17 points despite 19 turnovers (11/20) - 35.9%
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And yet most teams that move on by historic hot shooting are likely to lose when they revert to the mean the next game. Some on this list may not, but you just can’t bank on shooting that well from outside.
 
HuskyHawk said:
And yet most teams that move on by historic hot shooting are likely to lose when they revert to the mean the next game. Some on this list may not, but you just can’t bank on shooting that well from outside.
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Probably to another team who fits the OP's profile.
 
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Did a little more digging because I still don't think most people have grasped how unlucky we got.

This was not just rather good shooting, this was sensational shooting.

64.7% is the best team 3-point shooting % in the round of 64 + first four since the '15 tournament. This was the best % over the last 216 round of 64 + first four games over that span. It's the best % in any round over the last 4 tournaments.

Bonus fact: Of any team in any round that shot 60+% from 3 in the NCAA tournament over the entire sports reference database (11 tournaments), NMSU was the only team to also go perfect from the free throw line.
 
auror said:
Did a little more digging because I still don't think most people have grasped how unlucky we got.

This was not just rather good shooting, this was sensational shooting.

64.7% is the best team 3-point shooting % in the round of 64 + first four since the '15 tournament. This was the best % over the last 216 round of 64 + first four games over that span. It's the best % in any round over the last 4 tournaments.

Bonus fact: Of any team in any round that shot 60+% from 3 in the NCAA tournament over the entire sports reference database (11 tournaments), NMSU was the only team to also go perfect from the free throw line.
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...this just made me even more angry. We sold our soul to the devil for that 2014 title, huh
 
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auror said:
Did a little more digging because I still don't think most people have grasped how unlucky we got.

This was not just rather good shooting, this was sensational shooting.

64.7% is the best team 3-point shooting % in the round of 64 + first four since the '15 tournament. This was the best % over the last 216 round of 64 + first four games over that span. It's the best % in any round over the last 4 tournaments.

Bonus fact: Of any team in any round that shot 60+% from 3 in the NCAA tournament over the entire sports reference database (11 tournaments), NMSU was the only team to also go perfect from the free throw line.
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This is why I compared it to the first Villanova NC game vs Georgetown. There were no 3 pointers then but: "The Wildcats were successful on 22 of 28 field goal attempts in the game, for a shooting percentage of 78.6 percent. The team made all but one of their 10 shot attempts in the second half. The Wildcats set NCAA Tournament championship game records for the highest shooting percentage and the fewest shot attempts; both figures are also records for any Final Four game as of 2019. Villanova made most of their free throw attempts, converting on 22 of 27 attempts."

NMSU performance was historic and legendary. We were the unfortunate victims. Still had a chance despite that.
 
tzznandrew said:
It should make you feel angrier because we still should have won in spite of that barrage.
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The game was a worst case scenario, i think we played bad at times, I think Hurley made bad moves and we ran into a historic shooting night. I am angry cause we should have won but optimistic that we are headed in the right direction I think
 
LOL at the rationalization that NMSU had some historic night. UCONN let NMSU dictate how the game was to be played, and they executed their gameplan. Hurley's got to do better about the game being dictated to him on the other team's terms.

ETA: My guess is Hurley would be the first to tell you that, too.
 
auror said:
Did a little more digging because I still don't think most people have grasped how unlucky we got.

This was not just rather good shooting, this was sensational shooting.

64.7% is the best team 3-point shooting % in the round of 64 + first four since the '15 tournament. This was the best % over the last 216 round of 64 + first four games over that span. It's the best % in any round over the last 4 tournaments.

Bonus fact: Of any team in any round that shot 60+% from 3 in the NCAA tournament over the entire sports reference database (11 tournaments), NMSU was the only team to also go perfect from the free throw line…
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So we were so bad that it was like a shooting drill for them…

Per the original stat, if you can’t control the 3p% then you can control the number of attempts and who takes them. We let them take those shots. Arkansas by comparison did not. Instead, McCants led a big run but it was middling compared to Allen.

It was like the first Villanova game. The coaching preparation was just appalling. No wonder Jans is getting paid more than Dan Hurley now.
 
EnochRoot said:
LOL at the rationalization that NMSU had some historic night. UCONN let NMSU dictate how the game was to be played, and they executed their gameplan. Hurley's got to do better about the game being dictated to him on the other team's terms.

ETA: My guess is Hurley would be the first to tell you that, too.
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This is just not true. NMSU and Teddy Allen specifically took a lot of objectively bad shots. Shots that Calhoun would have immediately yanked someone from the game for. Contested step-back 3's,long fadeaway 2's, and deep 3's from mediocre/poor 3 point shooters. They hit an insane amount of those shots but I'm sure those are not the shots that they went into this game hoping to get off. That doesn't excuse the poor offensive execution from UConn, but to suggest NMSU imposed their will in this game is just nonsense.
 
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WhereistheDove? said:
This is just not true. NMSU and Teddy Allen specifically took a lot of objectively bad shots. Shots that Calhoun would have immediately yanked someone from the game for. Contested step-back 3's,long fadeaway 2's, and deep 3's from mediocre/poor 3 point shooters. They hit an insane amount of those shots but I'm sure those are not the shots that they went into this game hoping to get off. That doesn't excuse the poor offensive execution from UConn, but to suggest NMSU imposed their will in this game is just nonsense.
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So because a player known for taking bad shots (and making them) was able to continue to do that (down Connecticut's throat all night long), they didn't dictate the game be played on their terms?

Huh?
 
EnochRoot said:
LOL at the rationalization that NMSU had some historic night. UCONN let NMSU dictate how the game was to be played, and they executed their gameplan. Hurley's got to do better about the game being dictated to him on the other team's terms.

ETA: My guess is Hurley would be the first to tell you that, too.
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NMSU was a bad shooting team. The quality of their shots was terrible. They made a ridiculous proportion of them.
 
EnochRoot said:
LOL at the rationalization that NMSU had some historic night. UCONN let NMSU dictate how the game was to be played, and they executed their gameplan. Hurley's got to do better about the game being dictated to him on the other team's terms.

ETA: My guess is Hurley would be the first to tell you that, too.
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If we were playing NMSU today I'm sure Hurley would hope they take the exact same shots as Thursday.
 
EnochRoot said:
So because a player known for taking bad shots (and making them) was able to continue to do that (down Connecticut's throat all night long), they didn't dictate the game be played on their terms?

Huh?
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Not just Teddy Allen.

Everyone took bad shots, and even they hit 7-10 3's.

We should have won the game in spite of it, but this was a historic shooting overperformance by a really mediocre shooting team that was also denied quality looks by our defense all game.
 
7774 said:
If we were playing NMSU today I'm sure Hurley would hope they take the exact same shots as Thursday.
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And he would be dead right in doing so. It was a once in a lifetime performance given the looks they got, from Teddy Allen and the supporting cast alike.
 
EnochRoot said:
So because a player known for taking bad shots (and making them) was able to continue to do that (down Connecticut's throat all night long), they didn't dictate the game be played on their terms?

Huh?
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What are you even talking about? NMSU statistically had a historically good 3 point shooting night. It was one of the more fluky offensive performances I've ever seen.

Don't remember a single one of those 11 3s being a wide open look and UConn also forced lots of other long 2's. From a defensive perspective what else would you try and force an opposing team to do?
 
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Matt1010 said:
What are you even talking about? NMSU statistically had a historically good 3 point shooting night. It was one of the more fluky offensive performances I've ever seen.

Don't remember a single one of those 11 3s being a wide open look and UConn also forced lots of other long 2's. From a defensive perspective what else would you try and force an opposing team to do?
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I remember one or two open 3's, but they were from about 28 feet.
EnochRoot said:
So because a player known for taking bad shots (and making them) was able to continue to do that (down Connecticut's throat all night long), they didn't dictate the game be played on their terms?

Huh?
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Sorry, just to be clear, your argument is that Teddy Allen and the rest of the team taking bad shots WAS the game being played on NMSU's terms? If so, they executed their game plan to perfection again in their second round game...
 
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EnochRoot said:
LOL at the rationalization that NMSU had some historic night.
...
ETA: My guess is Hurley would be the first to tell you that, too.
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Yeah it's a rationalization, but it's still compelling.

In the last 11 tournaments, only one team has shot that well and lost an NCAA tournament game: UNC in the 2016 champ final to Nova (who went 8/14 = 57% from 3 themselves).

Over the last 12 seasons, teams that have taken at least 10 3-pointers and made the same or better 3pt% as NMSU (and opponents didn't also shoot to that threshold) are 80-6.

So they win 93% of the time.

TRIVIA TIME!

UConn is one of those 6 teams that won despite opponent's insane shooting. Can anyone guess which game it was?
 
EnochRoot said:
So because a player known for taking bad shots (and making them) was able to continue to do that (down Connecticut's throat all night long), they didn't dictate the game be played on their terms?

Huh?
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He's known for scoring, and he's known for making some shots. Just not efficiently. For the year he shot 44% from the field and 33% from 3.

The team made tough looks. You gotta give it to them. But that doesn't mean it wasn't a bit crazy that they did. UConn still should have won.
 
auror said:
Over the last 12 seasons, teams that have taken at least 10 3-pointers and made the same or better 3pt% as NMSU (and opponents didn't also shoot to that threshold) are 80-6.

So they win 93% of the time.

TRIVIA TIME!

UConn is one of those 6 teams that won despite opponent's insane shooting. Can anyone guess which game it was?
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Forgot to mention this 80-6 record is on neutral courts. Should be a hint for the Trivia Time as well.
 
auror said:
Yeah it's a rationalization, but it's still compelling.

In the last 11 tournaments, only one team has shot that well and lost an NCAA tournament game: UNC in the 2016 champ final to Nova (who went 8/14 = 57% from 3 themselves).

Over the last 12 seasons, teams that have taken at least 10 3-pointers and made the same or better 3pt% as NMSU (and opponents didn't also shoot to that threshold) are 80-6.

So they win 93% of the time.

TRIVIA TIME!

UConn is one of those 6 teams that won despite opponent's insane shooting. Can anyone guess which game it was?
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Was it the Cincy AACT game in 2016?
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Was it the Cincy AACT game in 2016?
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No but creepy random fact: Cincy and UConn in AAC tourny games in 2016 and 2017 took and made the same number of 3 pointers 2 years in a row. Both teams shot 10/26 in 2016 and both teams shot 7/19 in 2017.
 
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