Take 2: this time, A&M probably really is leaving the Big XII

[alexrgct]

The word from "those in the know" is that Texas A&M will announce tomorrow that they are leaving the Big XII.

If you haven't been following this story, be aware that there are a LOT of dominoes that will fall over the next few years if this does indeed happen. Texas and Oklahoma have been joined at the hip (despite the rivalry, the respective ADs are good friends and know what's good for business). Oklahoma's legislature won't let OU do anything without OK State. Chances are, Texas Tech will have enough friends in the Texas leg to piggy-back Texas somewhere as well. So what will happen?

Option#1 The Big XII reloads:

If you are a Big East person, be aware that the Big XII will be looking to add BE teams, specifically Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. ND is interested in joining a league with OU and Texas, and Pitt would a) be a long-time opponent in football that ND could bring with them, and b) represents a pretty solid media market that would be more solid if Pitt got to play games against the likes of Texas and OU. BYU is also very much in the mix. There's a lot of interest in Arkansas, but the interest probably isn't mutual (even though Arkansas has suffered mightily in recruiting Texas since leaving the old SWC).

Option#2 The Big XII "reloads":

This option will be a stopgap in which some school like SMU or Houston gets A&M's slot, and the Big XII is further weakened. Be aware that, in this scenario, TCU MIGHT be a target as well, though probably not.

This league will not last for very long in such a state.

Option #3 Conference Armageddon:

This is where the four superconferences with 16 teams becomes a reality. Texas, OU, OK State, and Texas Tech join the Pac-12, the SEC nabs A&M, Florida State, and perhaps Missouri or some other valuable assets from the ACC, Big XII, and Big East. Notre Dame goes ahead and joins the Big 10, along with a few other schools (possibly Missouri again, possibly Pitt or some other Big East schools), and what's left of Big East and ACC will join forces.

Big money influences kept the Big XII from completely folding a 14 months ago. Everyone knows that, if that conference disintegrates, it will send shock waves through college sports and possibly establish a conference system that will eventually end the BCS as we know it. Stay tuned...this is going to be really interesting.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Groan! Very messy.

If Notre Dame joins a conference with the likes of Texas and Oklahoma, they will be a .500 football team and will lose much of their aura.

 

[bruinbball]

As an avid ND football fan, they already have

 

[hacksawsgarage]

but ND football is independant of the BE. so no real loss.
i like the idea of uconn playing the likes of maryland and duke in conference. much better than some of the grade B teams it gets stuck with presently.
but the question remains, where is aTm going????

 

[alexrgct]

ND's posture right now is that they are "not interested" in joining the Big XII, but everyone knows ND and Texas have been having a lot of conversations over the past year or so about possible future scenarios in which they're in the same conference. In any case, I have a hard time seeing a scenario in which a) A&M leaves for the SEC, b) the Big XII doesn't get a brand like Notre Dame to join, and c) the status quo in college sports remains the same for too, too much longer.

There have been discussions also regarding Texas dropping A&M from its schedule and adding ND as an annual Thanksgiving Day game, whatever happens.

FWIW, I think Notre Dame with a presence in Texas could enjoy a significant uptick in recruiting in that state.

Bottom line, a lot of moving parts, a lot of big boys who have to make a move, a lot of money at stake, and a lot of residual fallout if things start rolling.

 

[alexrgct]

but ND football is independant of the BE. so no real loss.
i like the idea of uconn playing the likes of maryland and duke in conference. much better than some of the grade B teams it gets stuck with presently.
but the question remains, where is aTm going????

Presumably the SEC. The SEC loves the idea of adding the Texas market, and A&M loves the idea of "sticking it" to Texas...which it's not really doing, but whatever.

 

[Vowelguy]

Notre Dame is not going to pick the big 12 over the far stronger big 10 or the big east which is located near the major media markets, their alumni, & the Catholic population.

Arkansas is a laughable idea. No one is leaving the SEC unless their AD & President are mentally deranged. Even then, their board would stop them.

Given the big 12's instability, Pitt seems unlikely.

BYU possible, but Mormon thing is a problem in a very Protestant area, esp @Baylor.

 

[jdubct]

Notre Dame certainly does and BYU may make a lot more money on football as independents than as members of any conference. Notre Dame could have been a member of the Big 10 years ago if they had wanted to. Reports are that the Big 12 wants TAM to pay a $28 million exit fee while the school was willing to pay half that. This may go to court.

 

[Icebear]

Big 12 minus 3, maybe 4. Or maybe they have just changed to Set 7 or 6.

 

[EricLA]

i have no idea what will happen. frankly i don't think the BE is strong enough or big enough to survive - i think it gets picked off a few schools at a time, but we will see. i could see PItt going to the Big 12...

 

[alexrgct]

Notre Dame is not going to pick the big 12 over the far stronger big 10 or the big east which is located near the major media markets, their alumni, & the Catholic population.

Arkansas is a laughable idea. No one is leaving the SEC unless their AD & President are mentally deranged. Even then, their board would stop them.

Given the big 12's instability, Pitt seems unlikely.

BYU possible, but Mormon thing is a problem in a very Protestant area, esp @Baylor.

First of all "far stronger" is debatable. The Big 10 covers a number of media markets that, over the course of the 21st Century are dying a slow and painful death. The Big 10 has fared poorly in BCS bowls and national championship games. Meanwhile, Notre Dame already recruits the Midwest well; being able to recruit Texas is the real prize. Finally, the Big 10 is less willing to deal than the Big XII is as far as ND having some version of their own TV deal with NBC. That is the single biggest issue with ND joining a conference.

Meanwhile, the Big East's media markets are not especially valuable because they aren't markets that care about college sports, especially football, as much as other regions of the country. Schools like Texas actually carry the Texas media markets. Rutgers may be in the NYC metro area, but it doesn't carry NYC

You are drastically overstating how beneficial it's been to Arkansas to be part of the SEC. They've been completely irrelevant since doing so, and a big part of why is that they can't recruit Texas.

Baylor holds no sway whatsoever in terms of membership in the Big XII. They're lucky to be part of a power conference at all. The schools who really hold sway in the conference see Utah as an attractive, emerging market, and also see BYU as a school with a national following beyond their local market. And again, the Big XII would be the most open of any conference to letting BYU keep its independent TV deal.

Pitt would only come along as an incentive to bring ND over, too. They'd be a package deal or uninvolved.

Money talks. The Big XII has a lot of it and may get more from ESPN/Disney as a means of getting it to continue to exist (rather than triggering the Conference Armageddon scenario, which ESPN does not want to have to deal with right now). It's flexible on the independent TV deal question. Personally, I don't think the Big XII survives more than four more years, but it's not as simple as you're making it.

 

[alexrgct]

Notre Dame certainly does and BYU may make a lot more money on football as independents than as members of any conference. Notre Dame could have been a member of the Big 10 years ago if they had wanted to. Reports are that the Big 12 wants TAM to pay a $28 million exit fee while the school was willing to pay half that. This may go to court.

A&M is likely to have its TV revenues for 2011-12 from the Big XII witheld to add to the rancor.

 

[Vowelguy]

First of all "far stronger" is debatable. The Big 10 covers a number of media markets that, over the course of the 21st Century are dying a slow and painful death. The Big 10 has fared poorly in BCS bowls and national championship games. Meanwhile, Notre Dame already recruits the Midwest well; being able to recruit Texas is the real prize. Finally, the Big 10 is less willing to deal than the Big XII is as far as ND having some version of their own TV deal with NBC. That is the single biggest issue with ND joining a conference.

Meanwhile, the Big East's media markets are not especially valuable because they aren't markets that care about college sports, especially football, as much as other regions of the country. Schools like Texas actually carry the Texas media markets. Rutgers may be in the NYC metro area, but it doesn't carry NYC

You are drastically overstating how beneficial it's been to Arkansas to be part of the SEC. They've been completely irrelevant since doing so, and a big part of why is that they can't recruit Texas.

You are focusing on performance, not money. The Big 10 makes a boatload of $ and has its own network. It is far far far stronger than the Big XII. And it's stable.
Ditto for the SEC and Arkansas.

Why on earth would any BCS team with a stable conference and guaranteed big $$ for years to come risk it all to go a Big XII conference with much smaller payouts and a decent chance that it'll be gone in a few years, leaving the school scrambling to get into another BCS conference?

 

[Blakeon18]

The word from "those in the know" is that Texas A&M will announce tomorrow that they are leaving the Big XII.

If you haven't been following this story, be aware that there are a LOT of dominoes that will fall over the next few years if this does indeed happen. Texas and Oklahoma have been joined at the hip (despite the rivalry, the respective ADs are good friends and know what's good for business). Oklahoma's legislature won't let OU do anything without OK State. Chances are, Texas Tech will have enough friends in the Texas leg to piggy-back Texas somewhere as well. So what will happen?

Option#1 The Big XII reloads:

If you are a Big East person, be aware that the Big XII will be looking to add BE teams, specifically Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. ND is interested in joining a league with OU and Texas, and Pitt would a) be a long-time opponent in football that ND could bring with them, and b) represents a pretty solid media market that would be more solid if Pitt got to play games against the likes of Texas and OU. BYU is also very much in the mix. There's a lot of interest in Arkansas, but the interest probably isn't mutual (even though Arkansas has suffered mightily in recruiting Texas since leaving the old SWC).

Option#2 The Big XII "reloads":

This option will be a stopgap in which some school like SMU or Houston gets A&M's slot, and the Big XII is further weakened. Be aware that, in this scenario, TCU MIGHT be a target as well, though probably not.

This league will not last for very long in such a state.

Option #3 Conference Armageddon:

This is where the four superconferences with 16 teams becomes a reality. Texas, OU, OK State, and Texas Tech join the Pac-12, the SEC nabs A&M, Florida State, and perhaps Missouri or some other valuable assets from the ACC, Big XII, and Big East. Notre Dame goes ahead and joins the Big 10, along with a few other schools (possibly Missouri again, possibly Pitt or some other Big East schools), and what's left of Big East and ACC will join forces.

Big money influences kept the Big XII from completely folding a 14 months ago. Everyone knows that, if that conference disintegrates, it will send shock waves through college sports and possibly establish a conference system that will eventually end the BCS as we know it. Stay tuned...this is going to be really interesting.

 

[Blakeon18]

Would anyone be shocked if TCU was invited to join the Big 12 and left the Big East before even playing a game in it? The travel for TCU teams....all of them from football to hoops to you name it....to BE sites is insane.

 

[Vowelguy]

Would anyone be shocked if TCU was invited to join the Big 12 and left the Big East before even playing a game in it? The travel for TCU teams....all of them from football to hoops to you name it....to BE sites is insane.

Shocked no, but I think it unwise at this point. As noted above, the big XII is very unstable right now. If TX/TT/Ok/OSU bolt for the PAC, as many think they will eventually, then where does that leave TCU? Screwed, that's where.

PAC & SEC would have no interest.
B10 highly doubtful.
BE highly doubtful since payback is a you know what.

I think they're overjoyed at finally getting into BCS land. Not worth the risk.

 

[EricLA]

what vowel says makes sense. Clearly "all" i care about is UCONN since i'm a UCONN fan first and foremost...

there have been so many speculations. if the Pac whatever takes a bunch of schools then that will probably lead to 4 super conferences of 16 schools each. i'd love for UCONN to end up in the Big 10 but i don't know if that would happen - more likely we'd end up in the ACC. if that ends up happening, ND will have to go somewhere or else they will be independent in every sport. most likely would be the Big 10 for them.

i can see schools like Cinci left out in the cold, or being the weakest member of a super 16 alliance. you'd end up with the SEC, Big 10, ACC and Pac 10 all with 16 schools. then you'd probably have Nova, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Nova, PC, etc join the A-10 or some other league like that.

i don't know from a $ and cents perspective if the big 10 would ever really consider expanding unless it did include ND and whoever else they want. it seems to me they are in the strongest position followed closely by the SEC and PAC 10 since from a football perspective they are the strongest and can cherry pick the rest.

 

[jdubct]

The Big East basketball schools could remain together and Notre Dame could still remain independent in football. The league could get at least a reasonable television contract for basketball.

 

[Enigma64]

The Aggies have been singing it in their fight song... "Good bye to texas university So long to the orange and the white"

 

[ed4ourgirls]

Notre Dame has refused repeated overtures from the Big 10.

That they would spurn the Big 10 and then suddenly decide to
join a shaky Big 12 seems to me to be highly improbable to say the
least.