St. John's Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

St. John’s: 12-6
Kenpom Rating: 72
Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 341st​

Best wins:

• 70-50 home win v #92 Nebraska
  • Joel Soriano: 17 points, 18 rebounds, 3 blocks
  • David Jones: 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals
• 71-61 home win v #85 Butler
  • Joel Soriano: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks

Worst loss (no “awful” losses, but 0-4 in true away games):

• All losses against top-70 teams. Only non-con loss was against Iowa State

After beating Butler, St. John’s snapped a five-game losing streak (Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence)

OFFENSE: 75th in efficiency

• 2nd fastest offensive tempo (14.7 seconds per possession)
• 4th lowest block rate (4.9%)
• 46th highest offensive rebounding rate (33.8%)
• 96th best 2p% (52.2 2p%)
• Median in A/FGM (51.4%)
• Bottom-third in
  • 10.1 Steal %
  • 32.3 3p%
  • 68.3 ft%
• Bottom-quarter in
  • FTA/FGA: 25.5%
  • 3PA/FGA: 29.0%

DEFENSE: 70th in efficiency

• 29th in steal % (12.5%)
• 82nd highest overall turnover % (20.5%, lowest in Anderson’s St. John’s era)
• 82nd best defensive rebounding rate
• 132nd in FTA/FGA (29.1%)
• Median in
  • O3P% (33.3%)
  • O2P% (16.4%)
  • 3PA/FGA (37.2%)
  • Seconds per possession (17.5 seconds)
• Bottom-third in A/FGM (52.9%)

The thing that sticks out to me is rotation variability. Here are the starting lineups from the last five games, notably Joel Soriano is the only consistent starter during that span.

Curbelo, Posh, Mathis, Jones, Soriano
Posh, Mathis, Addae-Wusu, Stanley, Soriano
Addae-Wusu, Mathis, Jones, Stanley, Soriano
Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Jones, Soriano
Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Stanley, Soriano

What notice the most about this above chart is the inconsistency of Anderson’s rotations.

For example, even though it might be normal to see both Curbelo and Alexander on the court at the same time, there will be times where neither guard will be on the court, with Dylan Addae-Wusu as the de facto point guard.

If Mathis (40.5 3p%) continues to nurse his toe injury, St. John’s will continue to be even more of what they are: an athletic, volatile team that lacks shooters.

My favorite player on the team is Joel Soriano, a calming and efficient two-way big who is a monster on the boards (top-31 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding rate). On a team with so many poor shooters, sometimes St. John’s best half-court offense is to chuck up a shot and let Soriano feast second chance opportunities.

DePaul transfer David Jones is doing a lot of what he did at DePaul: impressive athleticism and five-tool potential, but can be very hot and cold (9 or less points in three of the last six games). Considering UConn’s deficiencies defending the 4, it would make the most sense to play smaller with Jones, rather than Stanley, at the 4, and then go smaller from there. One thing I’ve noticed about Jones: he has a super high dribble, so something to watch there for transition opportunities.

In the backcourt, Posh Alexander is their signature defender, a bulldog on-ball defender, but a mostly non-factor on offense. Andre Curbelo has been better defensively than I expected he would, but his creativity on offense often leads to mistakes. Both guards are non-factors on the perimeter, even though they hit a prayer every now and then.
Dylan Addae-Wusu is their linebacker sized hybrid guard/wing/forward who can distribute for his teammates and is a physical defender. A secondary scorer, Addae-Wusu doesn’t have the best metrics, but he is capable of scoring at all three levels. Personally, I’d put Jackson on Jones, leaving Karaban to defend Addae-Wusu.

Both Pinzon and Storr have long-term potential, but right now they are mostly on the court as floor spacers. Both are excellent shooters and I could see Storr becoming one of the breakout stars of the Big East next season.

In their frontcourt depth, Stanley has some niftiness to his offensive game while Nyiwe is an excellent defender who can run the floor and guard multiple positions, but he takes risks on defense, leaving opportunities for wide open buckets elsewhere.

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 82-67.

A team like St. John’s is a matchup where you are a little tepid about the result…if UConn continues to limit mistakes on offense, they should win this game handedly, as St. John’s halfcourt offense is pretty bad.

Considering Soriano’s recent streak (19.3 ppg in the last 7), I’d expect Anderson to run his halfcourt offense through Soriano, feed the beast and hopefully put Sanogo in foul trouble.

 

[karstenkibbe]

I have watched a handful of St. John’s games recently. Soriano impresses. He is light years better than he was last year and I am concerned that he will own Sanogo on the glass - especially since Sanogo has turned into last season’s awful stretch Sanogo, when he missed bunnies, didn’t dunk and didn’t leave his feet for rebounds. Soriano has also added a reliable foul line extended jumper. If he gets easy put-backs early, then Clingan needs to play early.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

As always, thanks for these great reports.

I fully expect Jones to go off. Its just what teams always do vs. us.

 

[wheelerdog]

I'm very concerned about ball pressure on our guards

 

[FfldCntyFan]

From what I've seen St John's athleticism greatly exceeds their skill level. They can be very difficult in sports but also can have spurts where they are a complete mess. This game could be a nail biter, it could be a copy of the LIU game or it could be anywhere in between.

 

[olehead]

I'm with @Orc. Sanogo tends to bounce back from sub-par games with strong performances. He also likes a challenge -- evidenced by Creighton game.
From the Johnnie's games I watched, Soriano has become a different player. He's an athletic big with really nice touch 18 feet and in. He's dangerous in ball-screen scenarios as a mid-range pick and pop or roll and now seems to dunk everything. Adama will have his work cut out but these are the occasions where Adama generally shines - particularly given single coverage.

 

[Hunt for 7]

Is Soriano really 6’11” ? I will go look but I thought we beat them twice last year and he was not a huge factor. But as someone mentioned in this thread he has looked pretty good this year. He has the girth to hang with AS. Should be interesting. We always shoot better at home so I feel pretty good about coming out with a W. But I am looking forward to Soriano going up against AS and DC.

 

[REB1094]

Soriano has been really good this year, but if they leave him alone with Sanogo then Sanogo will eat him alive. I have full faith that nobody in the conference can guard Adama Sanogo 1v1

Posh and Curbelo are going to make our guards' lives hell, but it's not like our PGs were planning to drive and score anyway so does it really matter? Hawkins has 5 inches on both of them, so hoping he can just shoot over the top

I'd like to see Andre shut down Jones

If we lose, I'll entertain the "sky is falling" crowd on here. If we win, which we should, the margin will be as far as Hawkins and Sanogo bring it. Clingan should be able to eat their second unit alive while Sanogo and Soriano rest. We could use a double digit beatdown to get our heads back on straight

 

[auror]

What notice the most about this above chart is the inconsistency of Anderson’s rotations.

For example, even though it might be normal to see both Curbelo and Alexander on the court at the same time, there will be times where neither guard will be on the court, with Dylan Addae-Wusu as the de facto point guard.

Some of this is because Curbelo missed 1 random game in the 5 game sample.

 

[Friarsnoop]

If Hurley doesn't have Clingan playing a lot of minutes on Soriano, he's making a mistake.

 

[CheshireCat]

Sounds like another nailbiter. Sanogo sucked last night so I think he comes back and dominates this game

Sanogo can’t and wont dominate this matchup. We will need to make a respectable percentage from 3 to win this one if St John’s doesn’t beat themselves for us.

 

[gtcam]

I look for huge games from the Hawk and DC

 

[jibsey]

Soriano is no joke.

 

[Edward Sargent]

Soriano will eat a lion before scoring 111 pts and 50 rebounds on Sunday

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Basketball is increasingly a game of probabilities. It is about maximizing the expected points per possession on offense, and minimizing the points per possession on defense, and everything a team does should to achieve one or both of those objectives. Anderson does not seem to approach the game that way. His 1990's, 40-minutes of hell style may have conceptually worked along those lines at one point, but in practice, they have too many low probability actions on both ends that make it tough for them to beat good teams.

Posh Alexander in particular is just a "low probability" player, which results in a lot of wasted possessions. He is an immensely talented player, but he has a KenPom ORtg of 94.8, which puts him dead last among point guards in the Big East. By way of comparison, Andre Jackson is 112.7 and Souley Boum is 129.2. Even Primo Spears, who plays out of control, is 97.6.

 

[jibsey]

Soriano will eat a lion before scoring 111 pts and 50 rebounds on Sunday

We’re still #6 and this wouldbe a big deal for St.John’s. They want this game bad, hope we do as much.

 

[auror]

Basketball is increasingly a game of probabilities. It is about maximizing the expected points per possession on offense, and minimizing the points per possession on defense, and everything a team does should to achieve one or both of those objectives. Anderson does not seem to approach the game that way. His 1990's, 40-minutes of hell style may have conceptually worked along those lines at one point, but in practice, they have too many low probability actions on both ends that make it tough for them to beat good teams.

Posh Alexander in particular is just a "low probability" player, which results in a lot of wasted possessions. He is an immensely talented player, but he has a KenPom ORtg of 94.8, which puts him dead last among point guards in the Big East. By way of comparison, Andre Jackson is 112.7 and Souley Boum is 129.2. Even Primo Spears, who plays out of control, is 97.6.

The average offense in the Big East through all games this year scores 1.11 points per possession (adjusted for defense and location).

(The following is not considering offensive rebounding)
When Posh attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.58 points per possession.
When Curbelo attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.89 points per possession.
When Addae-Wusu attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.91 points per possession.
When Jones attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.95 points per possession.

With Montez Mathis hurt, there are 0 players playing more than 40% of the team's minutes with a positive expected value shooting 3s for the team. 0! Storr off the bench is the only guy that can make a shot, but they don't give him enough minutes (with Mathis injury, he finally hit 20 in a game recently). Soriano makes around 4 baskets a game in the post in the halfcourt not off putbacks. So he adds something, but not a lot.

They start 4 guys who are 6'6" or shorter... and none can shoot! If you can't shoot, and you don't really have a post game... you gotta penetrate and draw fouls, right? St John's averages the 316th least fouls drawn in the country. It's wild. Their personnel is so poorly constructed it hurts me. I haven't even mentioned that both of their PGs average >20% turnover rate for the season.

Literally the only way they score points is a layup in transition. It's just not sustainable against good teams. Their adj points per possession is 1.09 for the season and 1.01 in Big East play (and that 1.09 includes the 1.01, so the real nonconf number was probably like 1.12). And they haven't played AT UConn, Xavier, Marquette or Xavier yet.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The average offense in the Big East through all games this year scores 1.11 points per possession (adjusted for defense and location).

(The following is not considering offensive rebounding)
When Posh attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.58 points per possession.
When Curbelo attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.89 points per possession.
When Addae-Wusu attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.91 points per possession.
When Jones attempts a 3 this season, their offense has scored 0.95 points per possession.

With Montez Mathis hurt, there are 0 players playing more than 40% of the team's minutes with a positive expected value shooting 3s for the team. 0! Storr off the bench is the only guy that can make a shot, but they don't give him enough minutes (with Mathis injury, he finally hit 20 in a game recently). Soriano makes around 4 baskets a game in the post in the halfcourt not off putbacks. So he adds something, but not a lot.

They start 4 guys who are 6'6" or shorter... and none can shoot! If you can't shoot, and you don't really have a post game... you gotta penetrate and draw fouls, right? St John's averages the 316th least fouls drawn in the country. It's wild. Their personnel is so poorly constructed it hurts me. I haven't even mentioned that both of their PGs average >20% turnover rate for the season.

Literally the only way they score points is a layup in transition. It's just not sustainable against good teams. Their adj points per possession is 1.09 for the season and 1.01 in Big East play (and that 1.09 includes the 1.01, so the real nonconf number was probably like 1.12). And they haven't played AT UConn, Xavier, Marquette or Xavier yet.

I 100% agree on Soriano that most of his points seem to come from putbacks of the mess created by the guards.

They take such terrible shots that I have no idea if they can shoot or not. Alexander is shooting 19.5% from 3. I am certain he is not that bad a 3-point shooter, but I am just as certain that he is taking a lot of terrible 3-point attempts. I have only watched a few St. Johns games, but I can not remember too many times Alexander shot off the catch. He loves flying down the court and stopping and popping a 3 or long 2 or some contested floater. Those shots are effectively turnovers. St. Johns has one of the lowest block rates on offense of any team in the country (4th ranked at 4.9%) which is more a function of their insane shot selection than their ability to avoid getting blocked. If you are a defender, why risk a foul challenging a shot when whatever crazy shot St. Johns is trying is probably not going in anyway?

Anderson seems to think that increasing the number of possessions will compensate for the fact that they are so inefficient offensively, but he doesn't seem to realize that the other team gets the ball just as many times as his does. He is wasting a pretty solid starting 5 with his chaotic style. This team is below average defensively. Opponents have a high shooting percentage because St. Johns makes a lot of mistakes in its press.

I think the game has passed Anderson by a little. His Missouri and Arkansas teams created chaos for their opponents, not for themselves. If a team is going to play this kind of style, it has to be supremely disciplined, and this team is not. I don't think the players even know how to play his style, so they just end up running around, playing a high speed pickup game.

I wonder what David Jones and Soriano are thinking on this crazy train. Jones comes from a much more by-the-book system at Depaul, and in Queens he gets chaos. I wonder if he is regretting his decision to transfer.

 

[jibsey]

Say what you want about them but they played both Xavier and PC closer than we did.

 

[PNolanFan]

This is a team that we cannot take lightly, if we show up and play well we will win but if we dont bring our A game and they do, we could absolutely lose this game

 

[auror]

Say what you want about them but they played both Xavier and PC closer than we did.

In the Xavier game, they were at home and miraculously shot 44% from 3 (again look at the numbers above for their normal "prowess"). The Providence game was a good matchup for them. They got to use their pressure D against a team in their first game without their starting point guard.

 

[jibsey]

In the Xavier game, they were at home and miraculously shot 44% from 3 (again look at the numbers above for their normal "prowess"). The Providence game was a good matchup for them. They got to use their pressure D against a team in their first game without their starting point guard.

All I’m saying is that I read over here and over how we were easily going to handle PC and Xavier (Neither team could match our centers or depth) plus we were giving points. Double digit losses. I want to be wrong about St. John’s because I’ve always disliked them, BTW.

 

[auror]

All I’m saying is that I read over here and over how we were easily going to handle PC and Xavier (Neither team could match our centers or depth) plus we were giving points. Double digit losses. I want to be wrong about St. John’s because I’ve always disliked them, BTW.

Didn't read that from me. I'm just excited that we're finally going to get a game where the other team misses shots and we get to rebound and get out in transition. Look for Hawkins to have a big bounce back game.

 

[Punkbo]

I like people named Joel. Joel Barkers of Hartford was one of my favorite players. I also like Joel Goodsen from Risky Business as in “Joel, get off the babysitter”

 

[Jaker]

St. Johns is good, this will be a tough game 50/50