South Carolina a #1 Seed this Week

[Wbbfan1]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Charlie is still placing teams based on Geography which is how the committee has been doing lately. It still make more sense to send UConn to Lincoln and then place South Carolina in Louisville. UConn fans will travel to Lincoln. I'm not sure Carolina fans will.

 

[doggydaddy]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Charlie is still placing teams based on Geography which is how the committee has been doing lately. It still make more sense to send UConn to Lincoln and then place South Carolina in Louisville. UConn fans will travel to Lincoln. I'm not sure Carolina fans will.

Tennessee still a two seed? I over Maryland?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well, USCar is rated #9 in Sagarin, and they're #7 in Massey with a very poor (for Massey) SOS of 38. Maybe that all equates to a #1 seed, as they are the best of the powerhouse SEC.

 

[ASweet3781]

I know there's a couple of people who get upset when I criticize Charlie Creme but he gives himself away a lot.

Whenever a team has a great week, they go in UConn's bracket in his predictions.

Last week Maryland moved into our bracket in his predictions as a 3 seed after a strong week. This week guess who has moved in? UNC! As our 4 seed. After beating 2 top ten teams teams on the road. And having a player explode into possibly 1st team All American status.

And of course in his world there's no way Louisville can possibly be a one seed or UConn go to Lincoln. It just can't happen. They have to meet 4 times. No if's about it. All a coincidence? Perhaps. I don't buy what his supporters say that he is simply using geographic rules. He is using some wishful thinking as well. I have never seen a bracket with the strongest 1, 2, 3, and 4. But that's what he is currently predicting for us. And whenever a team gets really hot, they just get slid right into our region. It happens too often for my eyes brows not to raise.

 

[ScarlettB]

Not sure what Charlie is using to seed teams. Does anyone know? He has St John's as a 5 seed and RU as an 11 and one of the last four teams in. Our seeding went down this week despite having two blowout wins and moving into the AP rankings at #25. St Johns is #22. He has Dayton as an 8 seed and they aren't ranked. I wonder where he would put us if we managed to beat Louisville this weekend.

 

[ASweet3781]

Charlie currently has the #1, #3, #8, and #11 ranked teams in one region.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Creme is not necessarily indicating his beliefs on how strong the teams are, as his goal is to match the brackets he thinks the selection committee would create if they were basing it on current standings. Some years in his final bracketology he matches the results quite closely, and he's usually not that far off. But this year seems pretty odd, and the Stanford region has been kind of a joke most of the time.

To try to match the selection committee, he uses the tools they use as best as he understands them. Unfortunately for Rutgers, I guess that also includes the brain-dead RPI, where the Knights currently sit at #52. So averaging the other rating resources, he appears to be placing them somewhere between the Sagarin rating of #32 and that bad RPI score. Hopefully the committee will mainly ignore the RPI system.

 

[Icebear]

Gosh, I thought he was rarely close at all.

 

[ocoandasoc]

Duke a #2 and NC a #5? Not gonna happen. And Rutgers would be the toughest #11 seed in history.
There has to be a #1 seed sent to Louisville if they are a #2. And it can't be ND or Stanford. Would it really be so bad for UConn to go there? Drawing Baylor in Lincoln might be a much tougher game.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not sure what Charlie is using to seed teams. Does anyone know? He has St John's as a 5 seed and RU as an 11 and one of the last four teams in. Our seeding went down this week despite having two blowout wins and moving into the AP rankings at #25. St Johns is #22. He has Dayton as an 8 seed and they aren't ranked. I wonder where he would put us if we managed to beat Louisville this weekend.

St Johns is #12 RPI and has won 11 in a row. Best win: #11 TAMU (neutral). 8-4 vs RPI 100 with 1 other bad loss.
RU is #53 RPI. Its best win is over #49 Georgia (at home). 6-3 vs RPI 100 with 2 other bad losses.

 

[Phil]

Gosh, I thought he was rarely close at all.

Creme actually does quite well, which will come as a surprise to some here.

For example, in 2013 S-curve analyzed 28 places making predictions, and Creme came in first.

 

[UcMiami]

Again whenever this gets brought up ...
The regional site selection the committee made pretty well guarantee that the Louisville region followed by the South Bend region will be the strongest two regions IF the committee continues to use proximity as their primary assignment criteria for each seed line. It is simple geography - 19 of the top 25 teams in this weeks AP poll are geographically closer to either Louisville or ND than to either Nebraska or Stanford. And of those 19 I believe 16 are closer to Louisville than South Bend. I imagine when the addition 39 teams in the field are selected that same kind of ratio will exist again - 80/20. What this means in conjunction with the proximity rule (if in force) is that the #1, 5, 9, 13, 17, etc teams in the committees estimation will in 80% of the cases be assigned to Lousiville and/or South Bend and that the #2, 6, 10, 14, 18, etc teams by the committees estimation will be assigned in 80% of the cases to the other of those two locations. If there is another rule involved that precludes that assignment, then the next closest location will be the other of those two regionals followed by Nebraska. Stanford (the West Coast regional) will by proximity rule as is always the case be the weakest regional because the 4th best of each seed line will get sent the furthest.
As soon as the S curve assignment of regionals was scrapped the idea of balanced competition went out the window - though everyone had plenty of complaints back then too.

 

[Vowelguy]

.....the West Coast regional) will by proximity rule as is always the case be the weakest regional because the 4th best of each seed line will get sent the furthest.
As soon as the S curve assignment of regionals was scrapped the idea of balanced competition went out the window - though everyone had plenty of complaints back then too.

As I noted in a different thread, I do not believe this is correct. I'm pretty sure one if the rules is to create a balanced bracket, so that exactly what you describe won't happen. Additionally, the rule that limits conference opponents from meeting before the regional final supersedes geography and will help to balance.

 

[Phil]

Charlie currently has the #1, #3, #8, and #11 ranked teams in one region.

And your point?

 

[Phil]

Not sure what Charlie is using to seed teams. Does anyone know? He has St John's as a 5 seed and RU as an 11 and one of the last four teams in. Our seeding went down this week despite having two blowout wins and moving into the AP rankings at #25. St Johns is #22. He has Dayton as an 8 seed and they aren't ranked. I wonder where he would put us if we managed to beat Louisville this weekend.

As DobbsRover2 pointed out. Creme is trying to largely reproduce what the selection committee will do (except, inexplicably, for the FF matchups).

This means leaning on RPI.

You may have had two blowout wins, but your RPI dropped from 45 to 52, which is quite a drop. You do understand that "blowout" doesn't compute? The RPI ignores MOV.

I haven't checked the calculations, but playing UCF and Houston hurts your SOS, which is worth a lot.

Is your question about St. Johns why so high or why so low?

 

[Phil]

He has Dayton as an 8 seed and they aren't ranked.

Why would you expect an 8 seed to be ranked? A 8 seed is roughly the 29th-32nd best teams, so it would be a surprise if they were ranked.

 

[Phil]

This week guess who has moved in? UNC! As our 4 seed. After beating 2 top ten teams teams on the road. And having a player explode into possibly 1st team All American status.

UNC is 27th on the RPI list. If anything, Creme was generous. I do not know to what extend Creme applies the secret adjustments for quality wins, which might justify the bump up to a 5. My guess is that he does.

 

[easttexastrash]

This bracket looks pretty spot-on for the 1-2 seeds. Also, Baylor vs TAMU in Lincoln would draw a large crowd

 

[ASweet3781]

And your point?

It says it all.

He didn't move Maryland and UNC over to the Louisville region....until they looked like threats. You can think that's a coincidence. I don't.

He currently has a bracket that would be historically tough. A team ranked #3 not a 1? A team ranked #8 not a 2? A team ranked #11 not a 3? If the committee does do that than the criticism from my end will move from Creme to them. But I don't even think the committee is that dumb. Everyone who follows women's basketball knows the best basketball teams are located in the east and south right now.

 

[Phil]

LSU looks like the poster child for what is wrong with the RPI.

They've played six top 25 teams, which helps their SOS, but they lost to everyone of them except overrated TN.

So are they really the fifth best team in the country?

If you look at current rankings, looks like they played 8 ranked team and won twice, counting a win over just barely ranked RU. But that just further explains why their SOS is so high.

Don't you have to beat a quality team to belong in the top 5?

 

[Phil]

It says it all.

He didn't move Maryland and UNC over to the Louisville region....until they looked like threats. You can think that's a coincidence. I don't.

He currently has a bracket that would be historically tough. A team ranked #3 not a 1? A team ranked #8 not a 2? A team ranked #11 not a 3? If the committee does do that than the criticism from my end will move from Creme to them. But I don't even think the committee is that dumb. Everyone who follows women's basketball knows the best basketball teams are located in the east and south right now.

It has been explained to you many times. I cannot force you to understand.

 

[Phil]

Tennessee still a two seed? I over Maryland?

Tennessee is 7th in RPI and MD is 20th. You think MD should be ahead of TN?

 

[ASweet3781]

It has been explained to you many times. I cannot force you to understand.

I have never seen a bracket that unbalanced even with the silly geographic strangleholds the committee places on themselves.

 

[UcMiami]

As I noted in a different thread, I do not believe this is correct. I'm pretty sure one if the rules is to create a balanced bracket, so that exactly what you describe won't happen. Additionally, the rule that limits conference opponents from meeting before the regional final supersedes geography and will help to balance.

This is correct, but all that means is that the conference with multiple bids will have their teams split between South Bend, Louisville and at worst Lincoln if they are in the top three of their seed line - if they are the fourth in their seed line then sure they get shipped off to Stanford. In reality the SEC, Big12, and ACC are likely to have 4, 3, and 5 teams in the top four seeding lines - though a couple of those may well be the #4 team on a seed line. There are two non-disallowed tracks in each regional for those teams so there are four places combined in Louisville and South Bend, plus another two in Lincoln before they have to contemplate sending a Maryland or Duke or Tenn or KY out to California (unless they are the 4th team on a seed line.) No body really cares much what happens to teams beyond the 4th seeds from any of those conferences and the seeding works down from the #1 seeds so the teams likely to be sent west will be the teams with 5 -9 seeds.

 

[ScarlettB]

As DobbsRover2 pointed out. Creme is trying to largely reproduce what the selection committee will do (except, inexplicably, for the FF matchups).

This means leaning on RPI.

You may have had two blowout wins, but your RPI dropped from 45 to 52, which is quite a drop. You do understand that "blowout" doesn't compute? The RPI ignores MOV.

I haven't checked the calculations, but playing UCF and Houston hurts your SOS, which is worth a lot.

Is your question about St. Johns why so high or why so low?

Phil and Dobbs, thanks for the explanation. My question about St John's was why so high. I didn't realize they had won 11 in a row, but knew all 5 of their losses were to unranked teams. They have 1 win over a ranked team - by 2 points over TX A&M.

As for RU, I didn't realize that our last two games, despite being wins caused our RPI to drop from 45 to 52. I guess it will go up again when we play L'ville and UConn even if we lose. I don't know that I think RPI is the best predictor. We did have two bad losses, both by one point, one in OT and the other three losses are to ranked teams - including #1 and #3 in the nation. Only the UConn loss was by double digits. I agree with the poster who said we would be the toughest 11 seed ever. We are a young team and we have improved as the season has progressed. I would prefer the committee to use more than just computer generated formulas when putting together the field, but it is what it is. While I don't think we are a top 10 team, I certainly think we deserve better than an 11 seed. We will have a tougher strength of schedule again when we go to the B1G, so I guess that will help.