Since we're talking about my alma mater, here's my two cents:
Stanford coaches have said that in the average year, roughly 5-10 of the Top 100 girl's basketball recruits are ultimately admissible at Stanford, which means that Stanford is not actually actively recruiting anywhere near as many players as other top programs, because they simply won't get in. You can see this early on because in most years we start with about 10-15 or so hopeful targets early in the recruiting class's sophomore years, and then they dwindle down to a handful by the end once it's clear who's admissible, etc.
In some seasons, the admissible players don't happen fall among the top in the country, and suddenly we're recruiting players no one had been following much. A good example of this was the recruiting class of 2015, which just graduated. There was one top 30 player we were actively recruiting, and y'all know her pretty well: KLS. When she decided to go east, that was it for us for top players. Next highest recruit was Marta Sniezek, #38. Tara saw the writing on the wall early, which is why we ended up with Alanna Smith - the first international player Stanford ever recruited. And suddenly we signed Shannon Coffee and Alexa Romano, two players no one had on our radar or were nationally recruited by the big programs. But they had the grades/test scores and could fill spots on the roster, so in they came. (Tara makes a point of always filling all 15 roster spots because she wants to give as many young women the opportunity to get a Stanford degree as she can.)
In other recruiting cycles, for whatever reason, a number of the top recruits are admissible, and we tend to land most of them: the class of 2019, with Jones, Belibi, and Prechtel, is the rare class where we can get 3 top 20 recruits. And the fact that we've found 3 top 5 recruits in 3 classes is also really unusual for us (with Brink in 2020 and Demetre in 2021), because often times the very best girl's basketball players don't care enough about academics to want to work that hard to make Stanford possible. If you know you want to be a pro baller, it may just not be worth it to you, even if you could. Bueckers seems like an example of such a candidate: based on her GPA, etc., I would bet she could get into Stanford if she really wanted to take the extra APs, summer schools, etc., but she's clearly angling to be the next DT, so is Stanford really that worth jumping through all the extra hoops vs. getting 4 years of hoops coaching from Geno? Probably not.
That said, once you have top recruits who have been told they are admissible, the process totally flips: we rarely tend to lose out to players who have been admitted. If Williams was admitted at Stanford and chose UConn, that is news to me; no one on the Stanford board ever thought she was a likely prospect and her admission was never mentioned anywhere around our parts. The recent players we've known were admitted to Stanford and went elsewhere include Skylar Diggins (ND) and Mikayla Pivec (OSU). KLS had actually declared UConn before we ever heard that she had been admitted, but I think everyone assumed she would have been given her sisters.
Incidentally, my guess is that Dalayah Daniels is one of those players who's waiting to confirm admissibility and that she will come to Stanford if she gets the big envelope. Although players like Brink and Demetre will sometimes commit relatively early in their high school careers (Anna Wilson was another example), not every recruit can get the assurance until early senior year, with final SAT scores, etc.
As for Sonia Citron, and back to the topic of this thread, I'll be interested to see what happens with her. She's from Scarsdale, which, like Garfield High in Seattle (Daniels' school), is definitely a feeder for Stanford, which means there will be more expectation of her going to a place like Stanford than for some other recruits. No idea which way that cuts, but she does have the profile of the Stanford target.
My view of it is you go Geno if you want to maximize your chances of a career as a baller, and go Stanford otherwise. For that reason, I have nothing but respect for the KLS and Bueckers of the worlds - their picks make total sense.
Just my two (ok, looks more like 12) cents.
, I've also got to note that three Ursuline students are choosing to attend Notre Dame., which would seem like a good fit. And, ND has shown interest in Sonia Citron, although -- like usual -- MM is keeping her cards close to the vest. I personally think what happens with the remainder of the Irish 2020 recruiting season will impact where they go with guards in 2021. Alison Campbell, also a 6'0" guard, is already verbally committed and Caitlin Clark (another Catholic School attendee), Deja Kelly and Maddy Westbeld are all taking OVs. Let's see what comes of all that to get an insight into the 2021 approach (besides Ms. Fudd, that is).