We're hearing reports trickle out. I doubt anything is actually new information to the key players. Which means if you were confident Monday/Tuesday, you should probably not really change your thought.
If the reports of Pitt at $25M for 7 years are true, as well as reports that we are around $1M less per year and at the end of what we can offer, I have to think it's a tough decision. I agree with you that URI would seem the least likely in that scenario, but if URI comes close to UConn--and I know you say it can't but I'm assuming they are pulling out all the stops--all bets are off again imo.
Still looks like three very different and very intriguing choices to me, and I'm not sure which one I would choose if it was my choice to make.
As for the State of Rhode Island itself, I'm a fan of the South Kingstown area in which URI is located; we've spent many summer vacations on the shore there and will again this year. A little lacking culturally imo, but close enough to other cultural hubs.