So how far does ND drop in the polls?

[EricLA]

With wins over L'villel and ND, i could see WVU jumping into the top 20 - maybe at 18 or 19...

 

[RockyMTblue2]

With wins over L'villel and ND, i could see WVU jumping into the top 20 - maybe at 18 or 19...

I agree. Would you rather have Rutgers or West Virginia in a game between the two next week?

 

[Icebear]

#4

 

[Phil]

With wins over L'villel and ND, i could see WVU jumping into the top 20 - maybe at 18 or 19...

That's a BIG leap. There are 13 teams ahead of them not in the top 25, so they have to pass them and five or six other teams. That's a long way. I say they get close, then beat RU and then they can be ranked.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Lot of interesting movement in the Big East and elsewhere. With the win at Rutgers today, Saint John's, which was previously #42 in the Sagarin ratings will get a nice kick. They now have 3 top-25 wins and a winning margin there, something that only 2 of the teams rated 11-20 can claim. GTech for instance is 1-6 against the top 25. Of course, SJ's next game is at UConn.

WVU was at #28 in Sagarin, and should move up quite a bit, so a top 25 ranking in the national polls should by the data not be too shaky, even if the pollsters take a while to come to that idea.

 

[Alexmia]

Nope they will stay where they are #2.

 

[alexrgct]

Nope they will stay where they are #2.

 

[semper]

I say they drop to no. 3.

 

[FairView]

They'll probably drop to three, but what I really care about is that now UConn has the opportunity to win the Big East outright. Yes!

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Geno has consistently said that the prize must be the BE regular season title first ( if not foremost). "Hah, hah...I was kidding. I think we can win it all." He was right.

 

[Bestiarius]

ND probably got beat because two players were in foul trouble, one of whom was Ochonwa. Every time I see them play, I think of her as critical. I think teams are not penalized as much for a loss when key players are limited because of foul trouble because they are back to full strength in the next game. Therefore the way they lost will help them with some voters.

 

[Bestiarius]

They'll probably drop to three, but what I really care about is that now UConn has the opportunity to win the Big East outright. Yes!

Yes. Good motivation. Also a lesson - not to look past the next game.

 

[NCorBust]

The only reason I'm hesitating to believe that they will drop is because they beat US. Their only other loss before today was Baylor. Things might stay status quo.

I agree. It is incumbent upon us to beat ND before moving ahead of them in the polls.

 

[alexrgct]

I agree. It is incumbent upon us to beat ND before moving ahead of them in the polls.

Right- that's why Kentucky is ranked ahead of Duke currently.

 

[rington]

At this point, it makes no difference. It will after Feb.27th.

 

[alexrgct]

At this point, it makes no difference. It will after Feb.27th.

Correct- and even then it doesn't really matter as long as both teams end up as #1 seeds, which is the likeliest end result.

 

[Icebear]

Nope they will stay where they are #2.

Not a chance.

 

[Icebear]

ND probably got beat because two players were in foul trouble, one of whom was Ochonwa. Every time I see them play, I think of her as critical. I think teams are not penalized as much for a loss when key players are limited because of foul trouble because they are back to full strength in the next game. Therefore the way they lost will help them with some voters.

It may hurt them with some voters, too. Teams losing with foul trouble do so under the rules not by a freak shot or something else.

 

[NCorBust]

Right- that's why Kentucky is ranked ahead of Duke currently.

I cite what is right, not explain the lack of logic in the rankings. This is why the human based rankings are meaningless to Geno and should be to everyone. Rankings should be driven by a computerized heuristic algorithm. No way the press and the coaches actually see all these teams play. However, a computer can "see" them all play quantitatively and qualitatively. Each team's strength of schedule can be weighed against every other team's. For such things as ranking, computers are better suited to find the optimal ranking than a group of humans with incomplete knowledge and information, not to mention built-in biases.

At several Fortune 500 companies humans tried to predict computer and data networking capacity on an annual basis. They failed miserably. Our manager, a network analysis Phd, created a solution using a combination of network queuing theory and heuristic algorithms. We programmed it and applied it. The system predicted capacity 12 months in advanced within + or - 5%.

 

[doggydaddy]

I cite what is right, not explain the lack of logic in the rankings. This is why the human based rankings are meaningless to Geno and should be to everyone. Rankings should be driven by a computerized heuristic algorithm. No way the press and the coaches actually see all these teams play. However, a computer can "see" them all play quantitatively and qualitatively. Each team's strength of schedule can be weighed against every other team's. For such things as ranking computers are better suited to find the optimal ranking than a group of humans with incomplete knowledge and information, not to mention built-in biases.

The questiossn on the OP of this thread was "where will they drop". Not where would you put then.

And the logic is that voters will drop a team that loses to an unranked team. End of story.

We already have computer generated rankings. It's call RPI.

So, where do you think the VOTERS will put them?

 

[Icebear]

Computer rankings are still the creation of a person who decides what is valuable in relationship to other variables.

For the simple of mind who will be voting ND now has two losses including a loss to an unranked team and an OT victory over UConn at South Bend which should have been lost and Stanford only has one loss at UConn. I see ND dropping to 4th for those reasons but it is well possible they might hold at #3.

 

[Replicant]

The polls could split this week. AP may only move ND down to #3, having one less day to process the magnitude of the loss to unranked WVU in ND's house. Also, the AP (writers) tend to be more geographically, politically and celebrity (school and player/s) biased.

ESPN/Coaches will likely bump ND down to #4, based on the severity and timing of this home loss to an unranked. Add to that, Stanford is playing well and their sole loss was an early season one...in CT.

1. Baylor
2. UConn
3. Stanford
4. ND
5. Duke

 

[NCorBust]

Computer rankings are still the creation of a person who decides what is valuable in relationship to other variables.

Not necessarily! There are simulation and emulation systems that use feedback loops to continually re-evaluated their own accuracy and adjust the variables using mathematics with no human intervention. The initial state of the variables are actually set based on mathematical evaluation of the process under study. In such a "training" state the system continually loops through existing data until it accurately forcasts known results. Then the system is used to forcasted future results. With the feedback loop it continually evaluates its own accuracy and continually "tweaks" itself. I worked for a Phd. who created such a system for predicting the capcity of computer systems and data networks. The resultant system predicted capacity 12 months in advance with an accuracy of + or - 5%. Why 12 months? Budget cycle.

 

[Icebear]

But are those being used presently in basketball or are basketball computer models created by persons with biases.

 

[alexrgct]

As far as computer models go, Sagarin actually had slightly ahead of Notre Dame even before yesterday in his composite rankings. Generally speaking, rankings are about how a team should be ranked against the field of all teams. Head-to-head is considered, but the fact that UConn lost to two very good teams whereas ND has a loss to a relatively pedestrian one (that UConn beat already), would absolutely take precedence over head-to-head in most computer models for sports rankings.