Seton Hall Postgame thread

[Cuango]

The fourth quarter began with a backcourt of Kayleigh and Allie, and (as I recall) a front court of Serah, Jana, and Blanca. Just one starter among those five, and the four other players consisted of two Hoopgurlz Top 15 American guards and two international forwards with impressive pre-UConn resumes. If that really were UConn's starting five, and had practiced that way since September, and were supported by an appropriate bench (including people like Kelis, Caroline, and the currently-injured Ayanna, Morgan and Ice), I'm pretty sure that with Geno's and CD's coaching they would win the Big East and qualify for the NCAA tournament. They might reach the Sweet 16.

When they haven't gotten too many minutes all year, and probably not many reps in practice as a unit, and they've been sitting on the bench for an hour and a half before they get in the game, you can't expect them to be sharp and impressive. But if they were treated like the starting five, they would certainly play more like the starting five.

Another way of putting this: Imagine a horrible alternate scenario where Sarah, Azzi, KK, and Ashlynn were unavailable for the entire year, but the rest of the current UConn roster was available and uninjured, and was playing together as the UConn team since the start of practice in September. How far do you think that team would go? I think the Sweet 16 is a very plausible guess for how well that team would do.

I certainly concur that if our (healthy) bench were to start out the preseason as the entire roster, we would be a ranked team.

 

[Glenn]

I certainly concur that if our (healthy) bench were to start out the preseason as the entire roster, we would be a ranked team.

I suspect our second 5, not the team that was out there at the end of Q4, would be top 50. Using Trovik as a guide Seton Hall is 36th, a much better team than suggested by some of our posters, and our bench--led by K9 and Blanca would be competitive with them.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Yeah, maybe, but 'fess up, Rocky. Could you match Geno's locks back in the '90's?

Spent a business lifetime fighting the curly locks, but I wouldn't want to go head to head with Geno.

 

[BRS24]

Ok, so I just looked at the SH roster and cannot figure out which player I really liked on offense. She had a big knee brace on. But man, there were a few times that her footwork and crafty moves really caught my eye.

 

[uconnfan68]

I'm mystified at how you could look at the pasting our bench took against the starters of a Seton Hall team that is not close to top 50, and think our bench could be top 10. I have no words. And by the way, Brady and Cheli are injured.

IF, big word. I tried to make it appear that only those players were available for playing and coaching time. IF that were the case, there is no doubt in my mind that they'd have the talent to be top 10.

 

[donalddoowop]

What’s the deal with Brady eating a snack during the third period while sitting on the team bench. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player do that before.

You are just looking for something to complain about. What negative effect did it have on the team? If it were not allowed, she would not have been doing it.

 

[Centerstream]

Ok, so I just looked at the SH roster and cannot figure out which player I really liked on offense. She had a big knee brace on. But man, there were a few times that her footwork and crafty moves really caught my eye.

Could it be #23 Jordana Codio? She transferred in from Texas where she came off the bench.

 

[donalddoowop]

Come on, man. The lead was 47 at the 6 minute mark. the final MOV was 36. 11 point negative turnaround in the last 6 minutes of the game. I'm not complaining, but so many people have blue blinders on that they can't accept the facts. Yes it's my opinion that our bench is not a top 50 team, but our bench was really overwhelmed by a possibly non-NCAA caliber team with their starters in.

So what! That happens with a number of teams when they put their bench players in. Did it change the results. Would a larger margin of victory made a difference? Also, you must not have been watching many other teams this season. Blanca, Allie, Jana, Heckel, and Kelis would definitely be top 50 if they were a separate team. Add Caroline.

 

[OldSchooler]

Would it kill Fox to talk about the Big East women for 5 minutes?

There was a point, early in the game, when Geno and the refs were in extended discussion. The announcers were busy talking about something mundane, and never addressed this situation. If they had just looked at their monitor in front of them, they would have noticed something worthy of explanation.

 

[donalddoowop]

An easy win, although some meh offense and ball security at times.

Focusing a bit on Serah:



I expected more, too, especially with the regular season now half over. Jana looked improved today and may be gaining more confidence from Geno.



Serah also doesn't go up strong enough. Sometimes she doesn't go up vertical at all, but sideways and gets blocked or misses badly.

One reason is that she doesn't put enough arcing lift or loft on the ball. She ends up shooting line drives or angle-up shots that have little geometric probability of dropping downward through the hoop.

Other times Serah makes some nice moves. Basketball analyst Ralph Waldo Emerson suggested that players should mind the hobgoblin of inconsistency. Or something.

Evidently you did as so many others did. You read Serah's stats from Wisconsin and saw she averaged nineteen plus points and nine plus rebounds. I saw that but also saw she shot 48% from the field. That is low for a post player who took shots from no farther out than ten feet. She was the main offensive threat on her team and had to shoot a lot. So, she played most of the game. That is not happening at UConn. She is playing about as well as I expected her to play considering her background. Serah has shown signs of improvement in the recent games.

 

[Longtime fan]

Outside of UConn and maybe Villanova, WTH is there to talk about ?

It seems to me that Big East women teams can become more competitive if they just put up money ( NIL to attract superstars for 5th year etc ) or go international, as coach Auriemma has. As a side note, it was pointed out that U of Miami's QB in yesterday's playoff game ( Beck?) vs. Mississippi, was in his 7th year of eligibility. Yikes. He'll turn pro at 30.

 

[Cornell Lt]

It seems to me that Big East women teams can become more competitive if they just put up money ( NIL to attract superstars for 5th year etc ) or go international, as coach Auriemma has. As a side note, it was pointed out that U of Miami's QB in yesterday's playoff game ( Beck?) vs. Mississippi, was in his 7th year of eligibility. Yikes. He'll turn pro at 30.

And be a multi millionaire

 

[Gael]

Evidently you did as so many others did. You read Serah's stats from Wisconsin and saw she averaged nineteen plus points and nine plus rebounds.

I did slightly more than that. I watched the entire Wisconsin game against UCLA's Betts. Williams could do nothing defensively to stop Betts, who got 26 points on 11-12, 4-4 shooting. But Serah did well offensively, getting 22 points on 8-15, 6-8 shooting.

That game, plus her season stats, gave me somewhat high hopes for her offensive output that haven't yet materialized.

 

[donalddoowop]

I did slightly more than that. I watched the entire Wisconsin game against UCLA's Betts. Williams could do nothing defensively to stop Betts, who got 26 points on 11-12, 4-4 shooting. But Serah did well offensively, getting 22 points on 8-15, 6-8 shooting.

That game, plus her season stats, gave me somewhat high hopes for her offensive output that haven't yet materialized.

When has she played an entire game since coming to UConn as she did at Wisconsin?

 

[Gael]

When has she played an entire game since coming to UConn as she did at Wisconsin?

True.

So, we can look at stats that adjust for minutes and pace. Per 100 possessions, Serah scored at the rate of 35.1 points last season at Wisconsin and is scoring at a rate of 20.7 points in 16 games so far at UConn.

Whether that scoring output is above, below or right on expectations will vary from person to person.

 

[hoophuskee]

True.

So, we can look at stats that adjust for minutes and pace. Per 100 possessions, Serah scored at the rate of 35.1 points last season at Wisconsin and is scoring at a rate of 20.7 points in 16 games so far at UConn.

Whether that scoring output is above, below or right on expectations will vary from person to person.

I'm disappointed with her too. Shes not as strong as I thought. I would say that she goes sideways because she gets bumped a little resulting in her being thrown off to go staright up. And while she low posts a lot, I don't think she is stong enough to hold position as much as I thought. With that said she is a better passer than I thought though i wonder if that's just due to the competition. . And a very good switch defender.

On the flipside I felt Blanca would be at least good-to-very-good but she is better than I thought so far.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

True.

So, we can look at stats that adjust for minutes and pace. Per 100 possessions, Serah scored at the rate of 35.1 points last season at Wisconsin and is scoring at a rate of 20.7 points in 16 games so far at UConn.

Whether that scoring output is above, below or right on expectations will vary from person to person.

Points Per Possession further adjusted for Usage. Serah’s Usage at WI was 33.4% vs 20.0% at UConn, with less TOV per 100, for the first 16 games acclimating to the UConn system.

• Serah’s adjusted PPP is very comparable to while at WI.

Conjecture: Sarah’s Usage and Production will increase with greater reps (familiarity) and metamorphosis.

• As Renee said (paraphrased), it is very hard to be more impactful in less Usage in less minutes, playing with great players in a “Beautiful Offense”.
• At the end of Serah’s “finishing school” stint at UConn, Geno and CD will have transformed Serah into a WNBA-turnkey player, as they always do.

 

[Gael]

Points Per Possession further adjusted for Usage. Serah’s Usage at WI was 33.4% vs 20.0% at UConn, with less TOV per 100, for the first 16 games acclimating to the UConn system.

• Serah’s adjusted PPP is very comparable to while at WI.

Interesting, @NycUcWbbFan. I had assumed points per 100 possessions would be adjusted for usage. Maybe not. Is your stat comparable to "Offensive Rating"?

Some other ways to compare Serah last year at Wisconsin vs. 16 games at UConn would be:

- Points per 40 minutes: 24.0 vs. 15.2 (better at Wisc)

- PER: 31.8 vs. 22.6 (better at Wisc)

- Offensive Box Plus/Minus: 7.1 vs. 4.4 (better at Wisc)

. . . but . . .

---> Overall Box Plus/Minus is 9.7 vs. 10.8 (better at UConn)

. . . which means . . .

---> Defensive Box Plus/Minus is 2.6 vs. 6.4 (better at UConn)

. . . which suggests . . .

---> Serah's offense was significantly better at Wisconsin but her defense is significantly better at UConn, which I find a bit dubious because DBP/M, a simple subtraction number, is reputed to be weak.

Now, time to take some aspirin.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Interesting, @NycUcWbbFan. I had assumed points per 100 possessions would be adjusted for usage. Maybe not. Is your stat comparable to "Offensive Rating"?

Some other ways to compare Serah last year at Wisconsin vs. 16 games at UConn would be:

- Points per 40 minutes: 24.0 vs. 15.2 (better at Wisc)

- PER: 31.8 vs. 22.6 (better at Wisc)

- Offensive Box Plus/Minus: 7.1 vs. 4.4 (better at Wisc)

. . . but . . .

---> Overall Box Plus/Minus is 9.7 vs. 10.8 (better at UConn)

. . . which means . . .

---> Defensive Box Plus/Minus is 2.6 vs. 6.4 (better at UConn)

. . . which suggests . . .

---> Serah's offense was significantly better at Wisconsin but her defense is significantly better at UConn, which I find a bit dubious because DBP/M, a simple subtraction number, is reputed to be weak.

Now, time to take some aspirin.

I don’t think the stats you cite are sufficient upon themselves to prove your hypotheses.

Per 100 stats adjust stats achieved over PACE to values as though achieved over 100 possessions.

• Per 100 stats are more comparable.

PPP/ Per 100 PPP / Per 40 PPP / Per 48 PPP and other PTS-derivative stats (e.g. OffRtg) are achieved over a player’s USG%.

All other stats (except maybe AST which is earned over 1-USG%) are achieved over a possession.

• Normalized (by USG%) PPP stats are better for comparison. There is no such normalization for the other stats that make them better for comparison.

NetRtg, PER must be taken with a grain of salt because the countable stats based on PTS is earned over USG% whereas all the other stats are earned over a possession and depends on the level of one’s teammates;

• For example, NetRtg and PER for a WNBA peak player like Alyssa Thomas is different on her WNBA team which she was on vs on an Olympics team which she just played for.

On BPM, Offensive BPM (OBPM), DBPM:

• Alyssa Thomas looks closer to an average player in the Olympics as Serah Williams is closer to an average player at UConn than at WI; the concept of “average player” is critical to allocating BPM into Offensive BPM and Defensive BPM;
• Serah’s BPM at UConn is similar to at WI (10.8 vs 9.7). But since Serah is closer to an average player at UConn, her DPM at UConn is calculated to be twice than at WI (6.4 vs 3.3). But looking at individual defensive stats — any of them — shows that is far from the case.

 

[HopJim]

So what! That happens with a number of teams when they put their bench players in. Did it change the results. Would a larger margin of victory made a difference? Also, you must not have been watching many other teams this season. Blanca, Allie, Jana, Heckel, and Kelis would definitely be top 50 if they were a separate team. Add Caroline.

Interesting thought. On one hand, excluding Blanca, this would be one of the more deliberate 5's out there. Several of the Big East teams that run a 3-4 guard line up would likely compare well, particularly on defense and outside shooting. On the other hand, Blanca would likely be a 18+ a game scorer, Allie a 15+ scorer, with all others capable of 10+ more points a night. This 5 would likely have a winning conference record and be in the top 50-75 range. Perhaps better depending upon who their backups were.