Here's my take:
1. I agree completely with Eric's premise. I had Tennessee pegged as a strong 3 and they've been the one team that hasn't lived up to my expectations. That said, as Alex pointed out in his outstanding post, TN is a bit worse but not a lot worse. Bear in mind that Tennessee lost one of its games in OT and one by a point. They are extremely close to having only two losses. In which case we'd be talking about them as one of the elite teams (along with the top four). I know Stanford beat them by 17, but that was on the road without Massengale. (Ok, she played 11 minutes but it was her first game back and she was a non-factor.)
2. In addition to losing Cain, Bjorklund and Brewer, they've lost Williams, Massengale, and Spani at one time or other to injuries during the season.
3. My observation is that there is very little improvement from one year to the next after sophomore year, so Simmons was the only one where it was reasonable to expect a big improvement.
4. And Simmons, probably because of Massengale, has regressed in a big way. She's having a truly horrible season--no two ways around it. Simmons regression alone makes a huge difference.
5. Burdick has been a bust so far. Likewise Harrison, who didn't carry big expectations, hasn't contributed much.
6. Massengale although she's been excellent overall has been inconsistent.
7. On top of all of that, all of the intangible factors--a group of seniors that just don't seem to be able to live up to their talent, the coaching situation, etc. But I think 2 through 6 account for most of the gap between where we thought they'd be and where they are.
8. I think by the end of the year they get their act together and will be the top 2 seed. That's just my guess, and there's work to do, but I'll bet they give ND a good game (but lose) and win the rest of their games including two wins over KY. If all that happens, I think they end up as the top 2 seed.
By the way, I looked at the boxscore last night. Harrison, Bass and Burdick all played five minutes. If it was tournament time I don't think any of those players would have gotten off the bench.