Duke would never jump to the SEC, they thumb their noses to the SEC's academic standing. I disagree with you regarding doubling up, this new expansion is going to be about new markets, not existing markets. It's about adding more cable subscribers and you can't do that with Clemson, Georgia Tech or Fl St.
IMO it will happen and it will be VT and NC St, two schools that would fit very well in the SEC. I don't think the big 10 goes after GT, I think it will be UVA, and UNC or even Uconn. The SEC will not stay at 14.
UNC wants nothing to do with the B1G. They consider themselves the jewel of all Southern state universities. Their first choice is to see the ACC survive but that probably isnt going to happen. SEC is their 2nd choice.
Academics are great and all but sports drive the money and UNC/duke academics arent going to take a hit by joining the SEC. Vandy, Texas A&M, Missouri and Florida are all AAU schools. Add UNC and Duke and that makes 6 out of the 16 AAU universities. The ACC, as of right now, only has 6 if you include Maryland.
Then athletically wise UNC would lose out on recruits going ot the B1G. Maryland had a lot of journalist around the area figure out if MD to the B1G would affect recruiting. Torrey Smith said 100% he would not have gone to Maryland if they were in the B1G and he woudl have went ot Vatech instead. A lot of top southern recruits feel the same way. They dont want to play in the cold weather and want to stay in the south where the weather is warm.
Culturally wise UNC wants nothing to do with B1G schools. They are not southerners and have none of the same traditions or culture. The SEC does give UNC all of what they are looking for.
Duke is an exception ot the unverified rule of doubling up in states. Also why would the SEC, premier sports conference, want to add the 3rd fiddle in NC. North Carolina and Nova are the most sought after territories after Texas. SEC is not going to be able to lure UT since little bro and then Oklahoma and Ok St are all connected.
If adding UNC means you must add Duke... any conference would enter that deal. Duke adds a lot to any conference outside of football. It would be worth it.