Interesting that you think Dolson's presence at 100% is worth an 18 point swing. I don't doubt that she could score 18 points if she played 30 minutes, but I don't think Kentucky would win (never mind by 5) even if Dolson sat the entire game.
But I largely agree with your first prediction. I am not sure if I think Kentucky's defense is any better than Maryland's. But I think Kentucky will struggle on the offensive end against UCONN. Actually, I just want and looked at their record and they were held to under 60 points only twice. Once in a loss to Baylor and once in a loss to South Carolina. Baylor beat them 85-51, I think the UCONN score could be similar.
UCONN 78
Kentucky 56
A really bold prediction on my part. But I've just not been impressed with their games vs. Navy (first round) and Delaware. I actually think Maryland is the better team...