Score prediction: UConn at Xavier | The Boneyard

Score prediction: UConn at Xavier

Uconn 83
X 82

Down to the wire, ice it with free throws. Finish up 4 but desperation heave a-la ‘99 duke makes it closer than it was
 
UConn 82 - X 65. Our d holds up and Xavier’s d can’t contain us.
 
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It's over with 90 seconds left when X stops fouling to put us to the line.

I think we win by double digits in a final score that doesn't exactly tell the story of the game if you didn't watch it live and only read the box score.
 
Couldn't help taking a peek at the predictions on the Xavier side.

1672460834849.png
 
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YearoftheHusky said:
Hate to be that guy but I’m a realist.

76-67 X

Hope I’m wrong.
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That’s being a realist? We can lose. No way do I see us almost losing by double digits. I also don’t see us only scoring 67 against that defense. Xavier will have to score in the mid 80s at least to win this game
 
AntG168 said:
That’s being a realist? We can lose. No way do I see us almost losing by double digits. I also don’t see us only scoring 67 against that defense. Xavier will have to score in the mid 80s at least to win this game
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Hope you’re right. Free throws at the end can get it there.
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
Just out of curiosity if UConn is favored how does predicting a nine point loss make you a realist?
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Not only are we favored we were -6.5 at one point. Think it’s down to about 4 now though.
 
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YearoftheHusky said:
Because I am not going to say we win for the sake of the spread. I think this is
L number one and that’s ok.
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It’s certainly not impossible that they lose but they are favored by people who handicap these games for a living. It’s not like point spreads are random numbers plucked out of thin air. So your prediction doesn’t make you a “realist.” A realist would predict a 2-3 point win.
 
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X is a high paced team, with about the 20th highest pace in the country. Teams that play at a higher pace than Xavier from the data I've seen that UConn has played are:

Alabama (1) 82-67
Buffalo (6) 84-64
LIU (12) 114-61

In addition UConn has played three other teams with a higher pace than UConn:

Georgetown (86) 84-73
Florida (98) 75-54
Stonehill (102) 85-54

Xavier really does try for quick hitting plays and goes for a lot of transition, and secondary breaks. They pass the ball a lot, like UConn, but don't have near the off-ball action UConn has. Assists seem a lot more predicated on fast breaks, PNRs/PNPs, and drive and kicks/dump offs

The two games I have seen them play they gave up a lot of open shots. Which shows in their 3PT% defense (37.4%, 326th worst in the country), they make up for that by shooting an absurd 40.8% (3rd in the country) from three. Not to mention 47% from two, again bested by their 55%.

Where Nova was a contest of UConn's three point defense in terms of attempts, this seems like it might be more focused on Xaviers three point shooting percentage vs UConn's three point shooting percentage defense (26.5%). Xavier doesn't really take a lot of threes, they just take good ones and make them.
 
let me just say even if Uconn loses this game I don't think it's bad, sometimes the pressure of undefeated gets to a team. That being said I think Xavier wins a narrow game 72-69. I think Sean Miller and the crowd at home on a short rest after Wed playing a tough Nova game will be tough.
 
Testing fate by starting this the day before the game. Doomed.

UConn 76
Xavier 64

uconn husky candy bear xavier.png
 
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