Score prediction: UConn at Xavier

[Get a Job]

UC 81
XU 73

 

[willie99]

Nail-biter

 

[Blue Blood]

Paper tigers good guys 82 bad guys 65

 

[jibsey]

Wire.

 

[MJKI]

Uconn 83
X 82

Down to the wire, ice it with free throws. Finish up 4 but desperation heave a-la ‘99 duke makes it closer than it was

 

[RayRay]

UConn 82 - X 65. Our d holds up and Xavier’s d can’t contain us.

 

[formerlurker]

It's over with 90 seconds left when X stops fouling to put us to the line.

I think we win by double digits in a final score that doesn't exactly tell the story of the game if you didn't watch it live and only read the box score.

 

[RedDog]

X 68
Ray Ray 82

 

[YearoftheHusky]

Hate to be that guy but I’m a realist.

76-67 X

Hope I’m wrong.

 

[UconnU]

77-70 Uconn

 

[UconnU]

Hate to be that guy but I’m a realist.

76-67 X

Hope I’m wrong.

Do they storm the court?

 

[Leebo]

Couldn't help taking a peek at the predictions on the Xavier side.

 

[YearoftheHusky]

Do they storm the court?

I would assume so.

 

[AntG168]

Hate to be that guy but I’m a realist.

76-67 X

Hope I’m wrong.

That’s being a realist? We can lose. No way do I see us almost losing by double digits. I also don’t see us only scoring 67 against that defense. Xavier will have to score in the mid 80s at least to win this game

 

[YearoftheHusky]

That’s being a realist? We can lose. No way do I see us almost losing by double digits. I also don’t see us only scoring 67 against that defense. Xavier will have to score in the mid 80s at least to win this game

Hope you’re right. Free throws at the end can get it there.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Hate to be that guy but I’m a realist.

76-67 X

Hope I’m wrong.

Just out of curiosity if UConn is favored how does predicting a nine point loss make you a realist?

 

[UconnU]

Just out of curiosity if UConn is favored how does predicting a nine point loss make you a realist?

Not only are we favored we were -6.5 at one point. Think it’s down to about 4 now though.

 

[YearoftheHusky]

Just out of curiosity if UConn is favored how does predicting a nine point loss make you a realist?

Because I am not going to say we win for the sake of the spread. I think this is
L number one and that’s ok.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Because I am not going to say we win for the sake of the spread. I think this is
L number one and that’s ok.

It’s certainly not impossible that they lose but they are favored by people who handicap these games for a living. It’s not like point spreads are random numbers plucked out of thin air. So your prediction doesn’t make you a “realist.” A realist would predict a 2-3 point win.

 

[UCLJ0211]

78-73 UConn

 

[AntG168]

Because I am not going to say we win for the sake of the spread. I think this is
L number one and that’s ok.

That’s definitely ok. But I think you’re confusing what a realist is

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Couldn't help taking a peek at the predictions on the Xavier side.

View attachment 82532

X hanging 85 is one hell of a take.

 

[AntG168]

X hanging 85 is one hell of a take.

That’s what they’ll need to do. They can’t defend

 

[UConn Esq]

Not only are we favored we were -6.5 at one point. Think it’s down to about 4 now though.

Been at -2.5 since it opened

 

[caw]

X is a high paced team, with about the 20th highest pace in the country. Teams that play at a higher pace than Xavier from the data I've seen that UConn has played are:

Alabama (1) 82-67
Buffalo (6) 84-64
LIU (12) 114-61

In addition UConn has played three other teams with a higher pace than UConn:

Georgetown (86) 84-73
Florida (98) 75-54
Stonehill (102) 85-54

Xavier really does try for quick hitting plays and goes for a lot of transition, and secondary breaks. They pass the ball a lot, like UConn, but don't have near the off-ball action UConn has. Assists seem a lot more predicated on fast breaks, PNRs/PNPs, and drive and kicks/dump offs

The two games I have seen them play they gave up a lot of open shots. Which shows in their 3PT% defense (37.4%, 326th worst in the country), they make up for that by shooting an absurd 40.8% (3rd in the country) from three. Not to mention 47% from two, again bested by their 55%.

Where Nova was a contest of UConn's three point defense in terms of attempts, this seems like it might be more focused on Xaviers three point shooting percentage vs UConn's three point shooting percentage defense (26.5%). Xavier doesn't really take a lot of threes, they just take good ones and make them.