Score prediction thread for Temple

[CTtransplant]

This is a very interesting week. You will note that the actual score is highlighted in red in the upper right corner of the scatter graph. Essentially, no one was close to the actual score. The error in the forecasts was very large. Everyone was more inclined to think it was going to be a low scoring affair.

 

[Kaizen]

Lots of kudos to pass around - the list below only mentions those only one away from the actual MOV - but still more only two off. By the way, no one hit the exact MOV of 28 points. The details are:
View attachment 19366

Before I put my predication was looking Messay's data 82-54.
Then decided nah not going to copy from Messay, what a mistake I made ...

 

[CTtransplant]

2nd City was mathematically closest by a long shot. His margin of victory was also only one point from the actual MoV. I would say his was the best forecast from the Boneyard. Oddly, Massey got the margin of victory exactly correct at 28, but was very far away from the actual score of the two teams.

This points out the differences in the two approaches to determining the closest forecast. Based on Margin of Victory, Massey wins hands down. Based on closest to the actual score, 27 of the 49 BY'ers out performed Massey.

As a result, I am sympathetic to the problem Winlots has in picking a winner. For my money, 2ndCity should get the nod this game.

 

[DaddyChoc]

UConn: 94, Temple: 65.

you da man!

 

[HoopsHoppy]

UConn 87 Temple 56

You and I both had 31 as the difference - and, this time, I'm glad you weren't any closer since I didn't record it since the posting was close to halftime. Know that didn't impact your thinking because by then I would have figured a 50 point differential. Peace

 

[meyers7]

View attachment 19331

With 35 minutes to the game, here are the forecasts. There are a few outliers, and I really can't believe Striper is predicting a loss.

You got mine backwards.

 

[CTtransplant]

You got mine backwards.

I realized that later. At first I thought it was a typo, as I couldn't believe you were forecasting such a close game. I was really shocked when I figure out you were actually forecasting a loss. My bias prevented me from recording it correctly. You see what you want to see.

 

[meyers7]

I realized that later. At first I thought it was a typo, as I couldn't believe you were forecasting such a close game. I was really shocked when I figure out you were actually forecasting a loss. My bias prevented me from recording it correctly. You see what you want to see.

Somebody has got to take care of the mojo.

 

[HoopsHoppy]

Somebody has got to take care of the mojo.

And you've done your distasteful duty a few times this year - someone else (not me, I'm afraid) needs to step up to appease the mojo gods and give you a break

 

[2ndCity]

"veni, vidi, vici"

 

[Carnac]

Temple pulls the upset of the year- Temple 65- UCONN 63...

C'mon Striper, you're better than that. UConn came of of the blocks, and jumped on the Owls right away. 25 to 8 after 10 minutes. They were making it look easy. UConn was getting whatever they wanted, and Temple was at their mercy. Temple was clearly outclassed in that game.

UConn increased the lead to 34 points (52-18) at the half. Temple didn't quit, and outscored the Huskies by 7 (29-22) in the 3rd quarter, which is why I believe Geno left the starters on the floor longer in the forth than he normally would. He no doubt wanted to see order restored before he cleared the bench.

I don't know if your prediction was "wishful thinking", or by some strange premonition, you saw UConn losing this game. You had the distinction of being the only poster to predict a Temple win. I'm guessing you were being facetious, and didn't feel like following the crowd.

 

[NewCorn]

View attachment 19376

2nd City was mathematically closest by a long shot. His margin of victory was also only one point from the actual MoV. I would say his was the best forecast from the Boneyard. Oddly, Massey got the margin of victory exactly correct at 28, but was very far away from the actual score of the two teams.

This points out the differences in the two approaches to determining the closest forecast. Based on Margin of Victory, Massey wins hands down. Based on closest to the actual score, 27 of the 49 BY'ers out performed Massey.

As a result, I am sympathetic to the problem Winlots has in picking a winner. For my money, 2ndCity should get the nod this game.

Yes, 2nd City deserves the trophy. But I'm not singing-off on the $100,000 prize that goes with it until somebody explains to the mathematically challenged like me what the square and distance columns are about.

 

[winlots]

Yes, 2nd City deserves the trophy. But I'm not singing-off on the $100,000 prize that goes with it until somebody explains to the mathematically challenged like me what the square and distance columns are about.

NEW CORN et al: no time yet to sift thru the opinions about which folks were the best of the best for this game.. But, having seen this note from NEW CORN, I feel obliged to point out to him that MEYERS only offered up this hundred grand prize to the winner for the season as a whole.....NOT the winning predictor of just one game. So, as great as 2ND CITY is, he'll have to chill for another month or two......and that good ole MEYERS can just let the interest build on his cash horde for that stretch of time. We all know he'll come thru with the big bucks when the season comes to a close, so rest easy, y'all. Meyers Moolah comin' soon.