SC versus UConn — So, how worried are you?

[scubadog]

If they couldn't beat us on their own home court, how are they going to do it on a virtual UCONN home court?

First of all the past is the past. This is the post season, and what happened two months ago means very little. I have been concerned about this game since the bracket was revealed. NO NC team is going to go down easily and I suspect since SC has never beaten the Huskies it's extra incentive for the Gamecocks. That said , if UConn makes shots, as they should, game over.

 

[CocoHusky]

This UCONN team will survive and advance and leave it to us to overly debate MOV or even the slightest imperfections.

 

[baggerbob]

Two Things:

In 2016, UCONN defeated Mississippi State by 60; in 2017..

Second, I think we will win the game, but I am worried about someone getting hurt. I watched the second South Carolina - Missouri game, and I felt that Jennings and Cliney should have been penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct. I think that they play physical in a way that someone could get badly hurt. I think that Wilson and Harris are great players and I think their behavior on the court is exemplary, but I worry about Cliney in particular.

With Kia on the team no-one on SC will get out of hand, remember Kia comes from a Hockey Family. You start to play rough at your own risk.

 

[bballnut90]

If I’m a UCONN fan, I’m not worried. SC matches up so poorly with the Huskies...the only real shot they have is if A’ja has a career night, SC wins the rebound battle and their guards hit most of their perimeter shots. They need all that and a poor showing from Connecticut. Dawn is a very Goodwin trip coach but Geno’s teams always beat Dawn’s without much difficulty. None of the 4 matchups with SC have been competitive games. This is a good UCONN team and SC’s weakest team in 4-5 years.

The only factor that scares me if I’m UCONN is Wilson will be playing potentially her last game, so you know she’ll be giving 110% effort. She’ll also want to play wel to make up for her poor showing last month, and to silence the critics that SC wasn’t a deserving champion since they didn’t beat UCONN last year. That said, I just don’t think SC has the supporting talent to make it competitive, nor do I think Dawn can come up with a strong game plan to hang with Geno. UCONN will jump to a 10-20 point lead in the first half and coast the way to a comfortable victory.

 

[GiladKatzDeli]

To paraphrase Geno, if we bring our A game, we can't lose. If UConn plays UConn defense and shoots the ball well, we win. A cold shooting night could make this a slugfest (that we still may win). I'm not sold on South Carolina being able to score with UConn and I think Geno will pressure the hell out of the SC guards. Geno is also not going to let A'ja beat us, which means someone else will have to hit outside shots for the Gamecocks, and I'm not sure who that is.

 

[Orangutan]

A'ja is a GOOD WBB player but has miles to go before becoming a GREAT WBB player! For all the talk of her greatness, how many times has she beaten UCONN, or even come close to beating UCONN? And you better bet the farm that A'ja knows deep down if UCONN made the finals last year she'd still be looking for a National Championship!
Katie Lou runs rings around her in all phases of the game but the "talking suits" before the season even started called A'ja the best and now can't admit they were wrong!

She's beaten UConn the same number of times Katie Lou has beaten UConn. If that's the measuring stick.

 

[Jeff H]

I don't know if this helps anyone else, but this kind of analysis helps me relax a bit.

South Carolina's last month (probably should throw out the 2/25 Tennessee game as I don't think they had Wilson.
02/25/18 at #15/14 Tennessee L 46-65

03/02/18 vs #12/12 Tennessee W 73-62

03/03/18 vs #19/18 Georgia W 71-49

03/04/18 vs #2/2 Mississippi State W 62-51

03/16/18 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 63-52

03/18/18 VIRGINIA W 66-56

03/24/18 vs Buffalo W 79-63
So, based on those scores, I'd say the upper end of what South Carolina can score vs UConn defense would be in the low sixties. Unless UConn has a lot of foul trouble and has to go beyond the main six plus a bit of Walker they'll score into the seventies even if they don't shoot great. If they shoot well it won't be close.

 

[Centerstream]

Did I miss a game? When did we play Buffalo?

I'm a bit worried also because there is something going on I can't put my finger on. Katie Lou seems to have been relegated to floating beyond the arc as she did as a freshman. Her teammates aren't getting her the ball otherwise, aren't setting screens, and in general don't seem to be looking for her on offense. Kia never has, but now it appears as if the rest of the team doesn't want her to shine either. Could there be some jealousy involved? Lou had a horrible 3pt. shooting experience in the conference tournament. It cost her three (3) percentage points (49 to 46) and a drop from leading the nation to 4th place. However, as always, she did well in other aspects of her game. But since then her role has diminished and I wonder why? If this team is going to win it's 12th NC, they definitely need Katie Lou hitting on all cylinders.

This is OT but something you touched upon that I don't understand. I am guessing here but I believe that when the regular season ended, Lou led the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. But seeing that she played 3 games in the AAC tournament and now in the NCAAs, her % has gone down. Why should tournament play affect the regular season stats? It doesn't seem fair. Especially if the person in 2nd place plays for a team that plays 1 game in a tournament and doesn't make it to the NCAAs. Their stats might not even be affected. Not fair.

Stepping down from the soap box.

Katie Lou - my NPOY.

 

[Hongster]

Here's the pro's picks.

 

[Kevin G]

These young women are focused. If we make our shots from the outside then SC gets blown away. If we struggle like we did in the 1st half against Duke then SC stays in it. Would love to see a good contribution offensively and defensively from Walker.

 

[Centerstream]

My biggest worry is the same for this game as it is for all "big" games: the effect of the refs. I am a diehard believer that as the games get bigger, so does the effect of the refs. It would be great to watch a big game and not notice the refs, no replays, no phantom calls, very few jump balls, and especially no changes to the way the game is called after halftime when you know that one of the coaches has talked to the ref during halftime. I felt by reading the threads for this weekend's games that the refereeing was something that was not the best and I thought some even seemed biased above the norm. I especially hate it when the announcers are calling it a physical game but it is only being allowed for one team. SC likes to try to be physical but only if they are dishing it out and this concerns me.

 

[Longtime fan]

Like Kia Nurse said the other, we are pretty confident in what our girls can do. Not worried one bit. We come out and be the aggressor. Hit fast. Hit Hard. And Keep on hitting. We got this. UConn, baby. Bleed Blue 4 Life!!

I wish I had seen this. Ordinarily, you can read her eyes and see the confidence. I am still concerned about the health of Gabby and Crystal, more so Crystal at this juncture. We need everyone as close to 100% as possible. The Duke win was unimpressive, given
the " bricks" we seemed to be shooting. But one does need to remember that Duke's guards are pretty great ( Greenwell and Lexi ) and that ODUM person looks like the goods as well. So they are not horrible. And we won by a safe margin.

I have confidence in this UCONN team; Katy Lou is dependable and does everything; Kia is a rock and an offensive power if she doesn't have to worry about playing the point; Phessa is smooth as silk; Gabby is a chaos creator on defense and the best passer in the game; And Crystal is the best PG in the nation, if healthy. Z is the wild card whom we will need against at the " bigs" clogging the middle from here on in. ( I don't think she will have any success shooting her threes, however. How would that change overnight?). And Megan can supply some breathers for any of the starters. We also have the best coaching and that matters at this level.

But I don't have what it takes to watch them defeated. So I tape the game and await the outcome. Coward.

 

[CocoHusky]

My biggest worry is the same for this game as it is for all "big" games: the effect of the refs. I am a diehard believer that as the games get bigger, so does the effect of the refs. It would be great to watch a big game and not notice the refs, no replays, no phantom calls, very few jump balls, and especially no changes to the way the game is called after halftime when you know that one of the coaches has talked to the ref during halftime. I felt by reading the threads for this weekend's games that the refereeing was something that was not the best and I thought some even seemed biased above the norm. I especially hate it when the announcers are calling it a physical game but it is only being allowed for one team. SC likes to try to be physical but only if they are dishing it out and this concerns me.

A'ja Wilson more susceptible to foul trouble than any UCONN player. Should UCONN encounter foul trouble, UCONN can bring two players off the bench that would be better than 4 of the South Carolina starters.

 

[bags27]

Bravo, Coco!

I'm eager to see how Z plays. I don't expect her to man up to A'ja, but I'm hoping that she is an overwhelming presence when A'ja is on the bench forcing A'ja to play without rest--and that means more careless fouls. I think this year that's Z's biggest contribution against authentic post players: to allow Gabby to rest (and to be more aggressive) and then come in when the opposing post is wanting to sit. Hoping that next year Z can supply more physicality, but it's unrealistic to expect that, at least now, if ever. Next year, Batouly or Kyla might be able to deliver that message next year, plus maybe the incoming freshmen height.

And it'd be interesting to see what Z does against Jennings, which is the more likely match-up.

 

[wbball novice]

I won't make predictions for fear of throwing off the karmic balance. As I have been before every tournament game after St Francis, I'm scared shirtles of the upcoming opponent. And now the pressure of the previous year's game loss at this juncture ...

 

[Carnac]

Here's the pro's picks.

View attachment 30099

So the experts pick UConn across the board. I'll join them. I also think this is the year ND advances to the FF (what do I know, I thought UCLA had a real chance of beating MS too). They've been doing more with less all year. If they were going to lose, they've have done it by now. They're resilient. If they go down, they're going down hard. They've almost forgotten how to lose. That said, it would not break my heart to see them lose. I will be watching that game. I sheepishly admit to enjoy watching that look on Muffet's face toward the end of a game when she and her team are getting their butts handed to them.

UConn wins this game IF..........they do what they've been doing all year, and ALL of the core 7 players show up, and come to play!!! They've played SC once already this year in Columbus, they know how to beat them. Don't let Wilson beat you. UConn knows how to keep her at bay. Make one of the other players step up. We must given them their respect, they are the defending national champions. They did beat a team by 12 points (67-55) that we could not.

Geno has been getting his team ready for this game since October. He should be done coaching at this point. All he should be doing is managing the game. If the core 7 don't know what to do by now, they never will. A SC poster suggested that at some point SC will beat UConn. "At some point", they probably will, but not tonight. UConn wins by double digits. Praise the Lord and go dawgs.

 

[Bronx23]

The UCONN WBB team was ripe for a fall sometime during the 2016-2017 season! It could have come during that horrendous OOC schedule Geno setup or as it did at the semi's in the Final 4! There wasn't an "if" but a "when", IMHO they even should have won the Miss St. game as lousy as they played! Missing free throws, layups, etc. hitting 4 free throws in regulation and they don't have to go to OT! Miss St. as good as they played didn't win the game UCONN lost it! They had more chances and turned those chances into misses!
With the history of that loss stenciled on their brains and the addition of Azura as a alternative offensive and defensive threat the team won't make the same mistakes if they face Miss St. again!
SoCar can't score enough points to beat UCONN and their defense can't stop UCONN from scoring 75+ points!
UCONN has already beaten ND and L'ville this season and Oregon is still too young to beat the Huskies at the FF if they get that far!
UCONN has to play like UCONN and they will have #12!

Great post! Agree with all you said!
I'd only add that this year we have a true, quality point guard running the show. While Saniya had an excellent season she is not a point guard as exhibited by their last play.22
In addition to the significant addition of AZ, CD (even playing with her injury and not enough practice time) is a huge addition.
If we even play our B game we will win. And I expect out A game so it won't be close.
Bronx23

 

[Golden Husky]

I don't know if this helps anyone else, but this kind of analysis helps me relax a bit.

South Carolina's last month (probably should throw out the 2/25 Tennessee game as I don't think they had Wilson.
02/25/18 at #15/14 Tennessee L 46-65

03/02/18 vs #12/12 Tennessee W 73-62

03/03/18 vs #19/18 Georgia W 71-49

03/04/18 vs #2/2 Mississippi State W 62-51

03/16/18 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 63-52

03/18/18 VIRGINIA W 66-56

03/24/18 vs Buffalo W 79-63
So, based on those scores, I'd say the upper end of what South Carolina can score vs UConn defense would be in the low sixties. Unless UConn has a lot of foul trouble and has to go beyond the main six plus a bit of Walker they'll score into the seventies even if they don't shoot great. If they shoot well it won't be close.

None of this matters. Dawn has summoned divine intervention--I think I just heard a thunderclap--so how can UConn win?

 

[bags27]

Here's the pro's picks.

View attachment 30099

what's shocking is the strong support for Oregon. Not surprising, but shocking in that the secret is out: this is the dark horse team of the tournament. Like when D was playing, with Ionescu on the court, it's never smart to bet against her.

 

[Los24]

what's shocking is the strong support for Oregon. Not surprising, but shocking in that the secret is out: this is the dark horse team of the tournament. Like when D was playing, with Ionescu on the court, it's never smart to bet against her.

Only bet against her if she is playing against UConn

 

[Charliebball]

A'ja Wilson more susceptible to foul trouble than any UCONN player. Should UCONN encounter foul trouble, UCONN can bring two players off the bench that would be better than 4 of the South Carolina starters.

wait a second................you know that Wilson gets pretty much free reign under the basket.................you so much as breathe on her and the refs call a foul.................for her to get into foul trouble tonight she'll have to hit Gabby over the head with a hammer................several times...........

 

[warbler1055]

I am WORRIED. SC is the National Champ until somebody takes them down. They beat MSST fair and square in the SEC tournament. They are the SEC champ not MSST. I have a feeling that MSST will lose to Louisville. It will not be even a close game. If we play our B game like we played vs Duke, we are done. If we play our A game then we have the advantage. This is the tournament, a FF ticket is at stake, SURVIVE AND ADVANCE!!!

 

[mag 7]

There is one way UConn could lose. Now mind you I actually had this dream. I was very glad when I woke up and I was only dreaming.

In my dream UConn was not playing that well and at half Geno sent out only one player and the team remained in the locker room even until after the game started. The other team took out the ball - 5 against 1 and went down and scored. Because there was no one to throw the ball in there was a delay of game. (Mind you, this was a dream... I have no idea if any of this could even happen.) They gave UConn 3 minutes to show up and at the very last second they came out of the locker room. I was in the crowd and as soon as they appeared all of the UConn fans, aware that the game was about to be forfeited began to applaud so the refs knew that the team had appeared. Then they came out to sit on the bench but there were extra players. Some of the players were wearing hoodies tied up around their face so you couldn't really tell who they were. The fans were guessing that Geno was going to try to play the cheerleaders. The last thought I had before I was blessedly awakened was, "Wow, the fans care more about UConn winning than Geno does." (Which I think might be true during the regular season but not in March.)

So, despite my vote of "we got this" my subconscious is saying there is a way to lose.

 

[itsasport]

If she played for UConn she would have left in December of her Freshman Year.

I humbly disagree.

She is emotionally tough enough to deal with dyslexia. Physically, she has the strength of a center, the agility of a forward, and an outside shot.

If she had played at UConn, she would have become exponentially more skilled; and, I think, would be on a par with the best players on the team this year (except for Super Woman.)

Dawn said is so well about what can happen to a player who buys into Geno's spell.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I humbly disagree.

She is emotionally tough enough to deal with dyslexia. Physically, she has the strength of a center, the agility of a forward, and an outside shot.

If she had played at UConn, she would have become exponentially more skilled; and, I think, would be on a par with the best players on the team this year (except for Super Woman.)

Dawn said is so well about what can happen to a player who buys into Geno's spell.

I respect that opinon; but it's mine that A'ja's personality would have clashed mightily with UConn's program.

 

[BostonFan]

Its time for the guards Dangerfield & Nurse to step up and push the pace & ball movement. Poor guard play cost us a title last year. Cant let it happen again.

 

[Bigpetunia]

The primary key to this game for the Huskies is the team bus driver doesn't get lost on the way to the arena. Of all the "elite" teams that stand in UConn's potential pathway to #12, SC poses the least threat. Geno is relatively unchallenged when it comes to designing game plans to take a given player out of her rhythm, which is why A'ja, talented though she is, has never had a big game against his teams. If A'ja is denied a big game, as she always is against the Huskies, the Gamecocks cannot win. If she had a more formidable supporting cast, offering Geno greater dilemmas in deciding what elements of this particular opponent's game to take away, it might be different. But she doesn't, and neither does he!

 

[Bronx23]

So the experts pick UConn across the board. I'll join them. I also think this is the year ND advances to the FF (what do I know, I thought UCLA had a real chance of beating MS too). They've been doing more with less all year. If they were going to lose, they've have done it by now. They're resilient. If they go down, they're going down hard. They've almost forgotten how to lose. That said, it would not break my heart to see them lose. I will be watching that game.

UConn wins this game IF.....they do what they've been doing all year, and ALL of the core 7 players show up, and come to play!!! They've played SC once already this year in Columbus, they know how to beat them. Don't let Wilson beat you. UConn knows how to keep her at bay. Make one of the other players step up.

Geno has been getting his team ready for this game since October. He should be done coaching at this point. All he should be doing is managing the game. If the core 7 don't know what to do by now, they never will. A SC poster suggested that at some point SC will beat UConn. "At some point", they probably will, but not tonight. UConn wins by double digits. Praise the Lord and go dawgs.

Agree with almost all you've said in this post! The only slight difference I see is its a core 6! MW likely will not play or contribute significantly unless someone's in foul trouble or hurt.
Agree that they will win by double digits or more!
Bronx23

 

[Bronx23]

I am WORRIED. SC is the National Champ until somebody takes them down. They beat MSST fair and square in the SEC tournament. They are the SEC champ not MSST. I have a feeling that MSST will lose to Louisville. It will not be even a close game. If we play our B game like we played vs Duke, we are done. If we play our A game then we have the advantage. This is the tournament, a FF ticket is at stake, SURVIVE AND ADVANCE!!!

I think when the one compares scores from playing a common opponent, that's problematic. So much of team sports and as much or more in wcbb is match ups. You are also comparing two seasons with different teams each with some pluses and minuses.
Yes SC beat MS, but that's in many ways because Jones is significantly better than McGowan. Against mostly Gabby she has to deal with speed, quickness and athleticism on both ends of the court. When AZ is in she is more mobile than Jones and essential same height.
We will still win if we play our B game and still it won't be a nail biter. We have two significant gains from last year in AZ & CD. Both SC & MS had more losses than gains. Also psychologically U Conn knows how it felt to lose. Especially Gabby & Kia, also KLS and Pheesa, are much more prepared this year.
I think you are a bit overly anxious! Yes, we could lose but a lot of bad things have to happen for us and a lot of good things for them!
Bronx23

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I have to say the constant sniping at A’Ja Wilson is the thing I understand the least about this board.

I sort of get not loving Dawn or being upset about a championship that you don’t believe was deserved but what earthly difference to you does it make that people think A’ja Wilson is really good. She’s demonstrably an excellent player. Is having a UConn player be the darling of awards season that important to you?

For the record I largely agree with the analysis of South Carolina’s chances vs UConn. They are slim.

Harris will have to look to score more and continue hitting a high percentage of shots, Bianca Jackson will need to have the kind of game that she had vs UConn before plus the SECT, have to get good Cliney and good Jennings and it still might not be enough.

Cannot turn it over more than 113-14 times or be out rebounded.