Sanogo

[EASTFLA]

I will probably take a lot of heat for this but it will be a fair assessment. I love watching Sanogo work in the low post. He is as gifted of a player UConn has had in a long time. I think in that regard he is better than Okafor was. Remember, I didn't say better than Okafor, he is not, at least at this time. He is better in the post. Seems that most have already passed him along to the NBA as a first-round draft pick. Here is why I think that is a stretch:

He would have to be a 4 or a 5 in the NBA. His present skillset says he can only be a 5 and that is a difficult path. He is very under-sized as a 5. The average NBA center is 6'11". Sanogo is listed at 6'9". There is a good chance when he is measured for the draft he is more like 6'7.5/6'"8". His game right now is almost 100% back to the basket. He rarely scores outside of the 5-8 feet mark. If he has any kind of a 12-15 foot jumper it rarely shows itself. He will be a lot more contested by bigger players that can alter and impact his shot. He presently can't be a 4 in the NBA. He doesn't have the quickness to guard most of the quality 4's and he can't knock down and create his own shot beyond the lane. He has shown no ability, or desire to shoot or make 3's which would have to change.

Overall, he is a special talent, and some teams may give him a shot, but if you look at nbadraft.net he isn't listed in the 1st 2 rounds in the '22 or '23 draft! I love the kid to death, he is a great college player. His game may grow to be a better fit, but that doesn't look like this year. Hopefully, after next, that looks different. He is a genuine "tweener" but doesn't have the right fit for the NBA. Two other concerns. He leads the team in turnovers per game as a 5. That can't happen! He is also a black hole right now, the ball comes in and it never goes out. I think time and experience may solve both of those issues. For now, they exist.

I don't think he is or will be a 1st round draft candidate this season, I expect him back.

 

[EASTFLA]

I will probably take a lot of heat for this but it will be a fair assessment. I love watching Sanogo work in the low post. He is as gifted of a player UConn has had in a long time. I think in that regard he is better than Okafor was. Remember, I didn't say better than Okafor, he is not, at least at this time. He is better in the post. Seems that most have already passed him along to the NBA as a first-round draft pick. Here is why I think that is a stretch:

He would have to be a 4 or a 5 in the NBA. His present skillset says he can only be a 5 and that is a difficult path. He is very under-sized as a 5. The average NBA center is 6'11". Sanogo is listed at 6'9". There is a good chance when he is measured for the draft he is more like 6'7.5/6'"8". His game right now is almost 100% back to the basket. He rarely scores outside of the 5-8 feet mark. If he has any kind of a 12-15 foot jumper it rarely shows itself. He will be a lot more contested by bigger players that can alter and impact his shot. He presently can't be a 4 in the NBA. He doesn't have the quickness to guard most of the quality 4's and he can't knock down and create his own shot beyond the lane. He has shown no ability, or desire to shoot or make 3's which would have to change.

Overall, he is a special talent, and some teams may give him a shot, but if you look at nbadraft.net he isn't listed in the 1st 2 rounds in the '22 or '23 draft! I love the kid to death, he is a great college player. His game may grow to be a better fit, but that doesn't look like this year. Hopefully, after next, that looks different. He is a genuine "tweener" but doesn't have the right fit for the NBA. Two other concerns. He leads the team in turnovers per game as a 5. That can't happen! He is also a black hole right now, the ball comes in and it never goes out. I think time and experience may solve both of those issues. For now, they exist.

I don't think he is or will be a 1st round draft candidate this season, I expect him back.

I left one thing out. He can't be a 6 rebound guy, that is a horrible number for him. He should easily be a 10 rebound guy. Rebound is desire, he has to be hungrier.

 

[bendm]

Seems that most have already passed him along to the NBA as a first-round draft pick

i dont think that is the case and i agree w/ you, certainly not after this season. kofi withdrew his name from the draft last summer b/c he wouldnt have been a first rounder and his sophmore year stats were better than sanogo's across the board

 

[CTBasketball]

I don’t see him as an NBA player at all. His game has almost no use in today’s NBA.

 

[Castlevania]

He is a sophomore who is still developing (and probably growing?). Some of you guys go to such great lengths to put some kind stamp on a kid so early.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don’t see him as an NBA player at all. His game has almost no use in today’s NBA.

The NBA will come back around to post play in a few years as someone runs a few regressions on the Points per Possession that happens when a pass goes into the post during the possession. The NBA is in the early days of figuring out its own analytics.

 

[BuffaloHusky]

I’m not going to proclaim him a 1st rounder either but there are various factors which portend him playing in the league.

1) work ethic. Everyone has raved since he was in HS
2) ability to switch on defense. Although he isn’t an explosive athlete, he is very good when switching which is a premium skill in the NBA
3) free throw shooting. His free throw stroke is excellent and that should translate out to the three point line.

 

[MexicoHusky]

The NBA will come back around to post play in a few years as someone runs a few regressions on the Points per Possession that happens when a pass goes into the post during the possession. The NBA is in the early days of figuring out its own analytics.

I hope the NBA doesn't regress too much. I'm happy to see guys like Nikola Jokic play in the post. With proper spacing. Finding cutters and shooters. I'm not too interested in regressing back to the mid 90s Knicks. A wrestling match with an occasional Ewing baseline fadeaway.

 

[navery12]

I don't think a single person here thinks he's a 1st round draft pick. I'm one of the few who's been saying he'll leave after his sophomore year and I think that would be as a late 2nd round/undrafted FA. I lean towards him coming back now that NIL has been passed though

 

[CardiacAndre7]

He also has a massive wingspan IIRC. There are players like him that are in the league. But I do agree, he should rebound a lot more, especially defensive rebounds. It is about hunger and desire, and he seems to allocate most of his desire on scoring.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I hope the NBA doesn't regress too much. I'm happy to see guys like Nikola Jokic play in the post. With proper spacing. Finding cutters and shooters. I'm not too interested in regressing back to the mid 90s Knicks. A wrestling match with an occasional Ewing baseline fadeaway.

When I say "regressions", I mean statistical regressions. Unlike the two other major sports, almost every event in an NBA game is dependent on the previous event, and has a direct impact on the next event. This is because the action does not stop after each play like it does in baseball and football. So you can't analyze events, like shots, in a vacuum. I strongly believe that post touches increase the value of subsequent 3 point shots. I also believe that 5 out offenses are easier to defend than a 4 out, 1 in offense because the post player creates better overall spacing on the court. If a team wants a higher three point percentage, it should create more touches inside.

Most analytics are still taking events independently, so a 3 pointer has a higher expected value than a mid range or a post shot, but that is only true when taken in isolation. When taken holistically, I believe all three kinds of shots are necessary to maximize the expected value of each possession. Analytics will get there eventually.

 

[superjohn]

I hope the NBA doesn't regress too much. I'm happy to see guys like Nikola Jokic play in the post. With proper spacing. Finding cutters and shooters. I'm not too interested in regressing back to the mid 90s Knicks. A wrestling match with an occasional Ewing baseline fadeaway.

Jokic is a total unicorn though, you're not going to find any post players like him. Best passing big ever and is basically putting up the back to back best efficiency #'s of any player in NBA history.

The hope is Sanogo can just become adequate at recognizing a double and passing it to shooters soon. It would help the team and him so much.

 

[MDHuskFan]

I don’t care necessarily about the rebound number, more how he rebounds in his general area. We have a few guys on our team who may have more rebounds, but also don’t box out & just hunt them.

 

[Chuck]

When I say "regressions", I mean statistical regressions. Unlike the two other major sports, almost every event in an NBA game is dependent on the previous event, and has a direct impact on the next event. This is because the action does not stop after each play like it does in baseball and football. So you can't analyze events, like shots, in a vacuum. I strongly believe that post touches increase the value of subsequent 3 point shots. I also believe that 5 out offenses are easier to defend than a 4 out, 1 in offense because the post player creates better overall spacing on the court. If a team wants a higher three point percentage, it should create more touches inside.

Most analytics are still taking events independently, so a 3 pointer has a higher expected value than a mid range or a post shot, but that is only true when taken in isolation. When taken holistically, I believe all three kinds of shots are necessary to maximize the expected value of each possession. Analytics will get there eventually.

I struggled in my UConn Statistics class, so I'll throw this out as a question without being able to provide an answer. This has bugged me a bit even though Adama has been great.

Do the stats factor in points per possession (not just points per shot) for 3 point shots vs. post up (not just shots in the paint)? One of my issues with Sanogo is that if he misses his shot it is easier to get a defensive rebound. The shot comes off softer, the defense is collapsed to superior rebounding position, and it takes a player out of position (Sanogo) that would otherwise by an offensive rebounder based on size. So even if you miss the 3 pointer, do you wind up getting the points off the rebound.

Also, while I'd think a post up results in free throws more often than a three pointer, the chaos from an offensive rebound may counter that advantage.

Note, I agree with you that having some in and out action is better than just throwing it around the perimeter and screening. That's why I think Sanogo needs to become a solid passer out of the post. A mid range jumper would do wonders also. He's not big enough to be a black hole post, even in college, and certainly not in the NBA.

 

[BlueMAB]

I love Sanogo. He's going to finish his career as a great college player. I don't see how his game translates to today's NBA.

But the NBA could be a different league in 2 years when he's likely to leave UConn.

He has the size, talent, and work ethic to play professionally, even if not the NBA.

 

[Slayer305]

I don't think a single person here thinks he's a 1st round draft pick. I'm one of the few who's been saying he'll leave after his sophomore year and I think that would be as a late 2nd round/undrafted FA. I lean towards him coming back now that NIL has been passed though

Sanogo can't make money off NIL since he isn't US citizen

 

[Kenny11]

Getting drafted in the nba would be massive upset because of how the game has changed. 20 years ago he would’ve been a lottery pick.

He has improved his lateral quickness on defense though and maybe next he will develop an outside jump shot so, with his work ethic there is an outside chance.

I agree with the premise of the thread overall. The only thing I take issue with is the rebounding. I think he’s a very good rebounder. But our team is full of good rebounders and athletes like Jackson and martin who are incredible rebounders from the wing position probably take away a lot of his rebounds.

 

[BGesus4]

Getting drafted in the nba would be massive upset because of how the game has changed. 20 years ago he would’ve been a lottery pick.

He has improved his lateral quickness on defense though and maybe next he will develop an outside jump shot so, with his work ethic there is an outside chance.

I agree with the premise of the thread overall. The only thing I take issue with is the rebounding. I think he’s a very good rebounder. But our team is full of good rebounders and athletes like Jackson and martin who are incredible rebounders from the wing position probably take away a lot of his rebounds.

In terms of college bigs, there are very few I’d take over him - and of the ones that would even be in the conversation, e.g. , Tshiebwe, Cockburn, Timme, none are considered likely to be first round picks.

 

[Umami Zen]

Keep in mind that he is relatively new to the game and is still learning/growing. DH is looking for him to be a featured player when in the line-up and you can see he's putting in the work . He's also young for his class.

NBA-Who knows? He will be a valuable and productive player at UConn. Can he learn to face the basket/be comfortable/make some shots in addition to his back-to-the-basket skill set?

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Getting drafted in the nba would be massive upset because of how the game has changed. 20 years ago he would’ve been a lottery pick.

He has improved his lateral quickness on defense though and maybe next he will develop an outside jump shot so, with his work ethic there is an outside chance.

I agree with the premise of the thread overall. The only thing I take issue with is the rebounding. I think he’s a very good rebounder. But our team is full of good rebounders and athletes like Jackson and martin who are incredible rebounders from the wing position probably take away a lot of his rebounds.

He has (albeit in a small sample size) improved his free throw shooting a lot this season, and he has actually shown some good touch from 12-15 feet out at times. I think he can grow that part of his game. I think he does need to get out of that habit of tunnel vision when he gets the ball though, modern bigs need to be able to pass a little.

 

[Huskyforlife]

If he leaves after this year, it'll be for Europe. Hopefully NIL gives him reasons to stay.

 

[navery12]

I struggled in my UConn Statistics class, so I'll throw this out as a question without being able to provide an answer. This has bugged me a bit even though Adama has been great.

Do the stats factor in points per possession (not just points per shot) for 3 point shots vs. post up (not just shots in the paint)? One of my issues with Sanogo is that if he misses his shot it is easier to get a defensive rebound. The shot comes off softer, the defense is collapsed to superior rebounding position, and it takes a player out of position (Sanogo) that would otherwise by an offensive rebounder based on size. So even if you miss the 3 pointer, do you wind up getting the points off the rebound.

Also, while I'd think a post up results in free throws more often than a three pointer, the chaos from an offensive rebound may counter that advantage.

Note, I agree with you that having some in and out action is better than just throwing it around the perimeter and screening. That's why I think Sanogo needs to become a solid passer out of the post. A mid range jumper would do wonders also. He's not big enough to be a black hole post, even in college, and certainly not in the NBA.

The offensive rebound numbers aren't too drastically different for a 3 vs a shot up close, I think a 3 was around 30% and a layup was around 35%, so it'll depend on how good of a shooter you have. There's a lot of variables so hard to give a straight answer, but if you have a 35% 3 point shooter and assume 1 offensive rebound, the points per possession flip when you have a 54% shot from 2 point range

 

[CTBasketball]

If he leaves after this year, it'll be for Europe. Hopefully NIL gives him reasons to stay.

We need to get Jill Merriam handing these kids cars and promotional TV appearances!

 

[HuskyHawk]

Good grief, this thread. He has lost something like 50 pounds. He's fairly agile at this point, and still plenty strong. His back to the basket game is tremendous. Lots of NBA bigs can't do that as well. He has flashed some ability to handle the ball and drive from outside. Need to see more of that.

He has lots to work on. He needs a face-up game. He has made a few, but not many. With his touch, there is no reason he can't become a good outside shooter. Horford did and didn't take 3s in college. His rebound rate has to go up by simply wanting it the way Martin and Jackson do. His defense, another "effort" stat in some ways, has to get better. I expect he is such a focus on the offensive end that he isn't expending full energy on D and he needs to.

NBA star? No. NBA rotational player. Absolutely if he makes the improvements needed. People acting like he is a finished product. Guys like him that start late and dominate inside don't get a chance to hone guard skills. That doesn't mean they can't.

 

[MexicoHusky]

@superjohn @nelsonmuntz

I get it. I just enjoy slamming the mid 90s Knicks. Which is odd, because I'm no Knick hater. Not in the slightest. I rooted for them at the time. I was certainly rooting against the Bulls.

The 90s Knicks have just become the embodiment of frustrating NBA basketball for me. When I think of grind it out, painful to watch, ratings killing NBA basketball, I think mid 90s Knicks. Throw in Anthony and Dale Davis and I get a little sick thinking about it.

Any hint the NBA would move in that direction stylistically makes me a bit paranoid.