Ruh Roh... the BE might be getting an unpleasant SURPRISE

[UConnDan97]

I don't think people are saying that teams are going to leave because of a poor tv deal. Teams will leave because this new conference is not any good. Nor will it probably ever be. I think the looniest side in this whole thing are people who think that UConn would be better served sticking it out in the NBE and saying no to the ACC, even if FSU and Clemson leave. People who think UConn is on the B1G radar are the people who I think are living the biggest pipedream. Maybe more so than people who think the NBE will get a big tv deal.

Let me preface my statement with the fact that everyone is certainly entitled to their opinions. So here are mine:

1) OF COURSE teams leave because of a poor tv deal and NOT because the conference is no good! All of this realignment has been and will continue to be about MONEY! Mizzou no longer playing their biggest rival Kansas, no Pitt vs. WVU, no Texas A&M vs. Texas, and no Syracuse in the Garden, all because of more money. If the current Big East tv contract was not multi-millions less than the ACC's, they would not have begun the destruction of our conference, plain and simple.

2) Staying in the current NBE versus an ACC without FSU, Va Tech, Clemson, and Ga Tech is really only up for debate AFTER the NBE finds out what the new tv contract is (for reason why, see #1). Let me fill everyone in on something they should already know; UConn WILL NOT say "no" to an ACC invitation just to wait for a tv contract that may or may not be good. If we get the invite, we're gone.

3) I agree that the Big10 is a pipedream also. It would be one hell of a pipedream to come true, but that's really all it is.

I respect everyone's right to view the incoming information as they see fit (including Fishy). Those are my thoughts, and I'm always willing to discuss them. If I've come across as a little strong-worded in previous or current posts, it's probably lack of sleep or the fact that all of our threads are starting to read like the same thread. Getting a little loopy over here...

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I have no idea what the NBE's new TV deal will be worth however I think anyone surmising that the contract will only net the men's basketball members $1m each per year need only to look at the recent Lady Huskies deal with SNY for $1.4m a year to see how much of a low-ball estimate that is. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, Memphis, and Temple men's hoops being worth less each than the lady Huskies. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Lady Huskies but that is insane.

 

[CL82]

At least someone was taken in by the spin...

UConn's not smiling - not even a little.

But if you'd like to keep sprinkling fairy dust on this mess, please, feel free. The reality of it will settle in on even the thickest of skulls at some point.

 

[Jericho]

Fishy, you are always the first person to point out how bent out of shape people get on this board when they hear the first sign of a realignment rumor, and yet you are telling people they have their heads up their asses because you saw that nobody was smiling coming out of a meeting? Really??

Look, I will be the first person in line to tell you that I have zero clue what the NBE tv contract is going to be worth. In fact, I said as much in an earlier post in this string. But the people who say "This conference's tv contract is going to suck and everyone is going to leave" are just as reactionary and crazy as the ones who say "We are going to get a 2 billion dollar tv contract and then steal UNC and UVA away from the ACC!" Both sides are equally looney, in my opinion.

There are those that try to paint an extremely rosy and upbeat picture. And then there are those that complain anytime someone posts something remotely negative. One of the two is a lot closer to reality, and I'll just point out that 6/8th of the original football conference has left and another 1/8 was kicked out. Neither extreme position you just posted may be true, but you choose which is more accurate.

 

[UConnDan97]

There are those that try to paint an extremely rosy and upbeat picture. And then there are those that complain anytime someone posts something remotely negative. One of the two is a lot closer to reality, and I'll just point out that 6/8th of the original football conference has left and another 1/8 was kicked out. Neither extreme position you just posted may be true, but you choose which is more accurate.

Your post would make more sense if the tense was right (as in have left vs. going to leave). In other words, you are stating that 7 out of 8 of the original football conference is already gone. I was not referring to them in my two choices. I was referring (and so was Fishy) to the teams of the NBE when I said "....tv contract is going to suck and everyone is going to leave" as my second choice.

I know that you wanted to be profound and make me come to some sort of self-realization (in order to share your view), but you were talking about WVU and Syracuse when I was talking about Rutgers and Cincy...

 

[huskyjawz]

A summary from the article

Based on a future 14-member football league (in 2015, the Big East adds Navy as a football-only member and has plans to add a 14th school, preferably Air Force or BYU) and an 18-member basketball league, the media rights deal would be worth the following amounts per school annually:

A $130 million deal per year (as speculated by Pilson) would be worth $8.66 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $2.16 million each for the eight non-football members.

A $60 million deal per year (as speculated by CBSSports.com’s sources, slightly better than their low end) would be worth $4 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each to the four football-only members; and $1 million each to the eight non-football members.

Thanks for that brilliant summary.

 

[Nostical]

I agree that the Big10 is a pipedream also. It would be one hell of a pipedream to come true, but that's really all it is.

Well now, that all depends (in the immortal words of Bill Clinton) on what your definition of Pipedream is. If you mean Pipedream as it originally was derived--from one's irrational delusions after smoking a pipe filled with Opium, then I would agree. But the BiG difference here is that my pipe isn't filled with Opium--it's filled with Herbs(t).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Those conferences all, attractive have good teams. The Big East has a compilation of former Mountain West and Con-USA squads. That's the difference

Question for Jericho and Observer,

What is the ACC deal worth if the league is Duke, BCU, Wake, Syracuse, Maryland, Pitt, and Miami?

 

[MattMang23]

Can I answer that?

A heckuvalot more than a conference featuring SDSU, SMU, Houston, Memphis, Temple, UCF, and unfortunately, UConn.

I guess we all missed those big paydays the MWC and C-USA had.

 

[auggie22]

I have no idea what the NBE's new TV deal will be worth however I think anyone surmising that the contract will only net the men's basketball members $1m each per year need only to look at the recent Lady Huskies deal with SNY for $1.4m a year to see how much of a low-ball estimate that is. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, Memphis, and Temple men's hoops being worth less each than the lady Huskies. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Lady Huskies but that is insane.

Great point. And that is $1.4M for Uconn Women's THIRD TIER rights! So apparently the NBE's 1st and 2nd-tier men's bball is worth less than Geno's coaching shows with a dozen or so of the least attractive games.

 

[Waquoit]

Great point. And that is $1.4M for Uconn Women's THIRD TIER rights! So apparently the NBE's 1st and 2nd-tier men's bball is worth less than Geno's coaching shows with a dozen or so of the least attractive games.

What you just said here is true. That's why so many sad faces.

 

[Waquoit]

Unlike this board, the people in that meeting do not have their head's up their asses - they know that this is going to hurt and they know that the conference will lose more members.

But what are the chances that one of those members is UConn? 10%? Is it at least greater than 0%? I don't care about the Big East anymore, I care about UConn. Do we have any hope at all? I think we're doomed.

 

[freescooter]

Waquoit,
I'm sort of with you. When the last round of conference jumping happened I posted that I was really worried that UCONN would get left behind and Iused Kansas as an example...a real true blue blood in basketball almost got left in the dumpster...the basketball folks all said that was impossible...nobodywould leave a basketball power like UCONN on the sidelines...but I think it is more and more looking like it will happen...I tell you, if I were Herbst and Manuel I would be trying to work out a deal for a new league with the North Carolina and Virginia membersof the ACC, Maryland, UCONN, Syracuse Pitt and BC. If Miami or someone doesn't get into the B12, take them too, but instead of being a pawn in this, try to be aggressive for a change.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I have no idea what the NBE's new TV deal will be worth however I think anyone surmising that the contract will only net the men's basketball members $1m each per year need only to look at the recent Lady Huskies deal with SNY for $1.4m a year to see how much of a low-ball estimate that is. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, Memphis, and Temple men's hoops being worth less each than the lady Huskies. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Lady Huskies but that is insane.

That is how the league divides it up. My guess is that if you actually split the rights, basketball alone could pull in close to the $60M. It's BE football that has little value to ESPN. With a zillion channels, plus online, they need the hoops content bigtime. In fact, that would be my suggestion to the league. Sell hoops rights to ESPN, and football to NBC.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

That is how the league divides it up. My guess is that if you actually split the rights, basketball alone could pull in close to the $60M. It's BE football that has little value to ESPN. With a zillion channels, plus online, they need the hoops content bigtime. In fact, that would be my suggestion to the league. Sell hoops rights to ESPN, and football to NBC.

I largely agree with what you say but would also suggest that if NBC is willing to pay a premium for Big East hoops that the money may be more vital to the league than the exposure at this point. Big East hoops is really the biggest bargaining chip we have.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

What you just said here is true. That's why so many sad faces.

It is simply not true. The hoops schools could break away and team up with the best of the A10 and do better than that.

 

[RS9999X]

NOTE TO CARL SPACKLER: IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE

Speculation on the market value that the NNBE can get in this McMurphy article... he cites one guy who thinks it'll be over $130 million (good) but also cites "industry sources" (i.e., Carl's moles / conspiracy kitty's mysterious puppet masters) who say it could be less... a lot less. If true this could accelerate the run for the exits.



Does the ACC deal still look bad now?

McMurphy's run with these figures before. Desperate for the attention I might add.

I accept the $135 million as 'not impossible' and the $60 million as possible only if ND, UConn, Rutgers, and Louisville end up elsewhere.

At some point the conference is nothing more than a remarketed version of the C-USA and Mountatin West. Now its a "best of the remaining programs and markets" aggregation.

Let's not forget in some markets like CT Basketball is as good if not a better draw than Football. In the Northeast this is true: from PC to Georgetown (SJU, Nova, Rutgers, Temple, SHU and to some extend Louisvlle).

If the Big 12 goes to 14 then there's a different discussion. Until that happens the BE isn't going to see under $100 million.

 

[RS9999X]

At least someone was taken in by the spin...

UConn's not smiling - not even a little.

But if you'd like to keep sprinkling fairy dust on this mess, please, feel free. The reality of it will settle in on even the thickest of skulls at some point.

The big fish in the pond are always hungry. You should know this .

I don't think its as bad as noted. No question the cohesion thing is a joke. This conference is now a classic Rube Goldberg kludge machine held together by duct tape. But that doesn't make it worthless. The "Best of the Rest" strategy in football has always been the BE strategy.

 

[junglehusky]

Held together by duct tape and #ClapHarder.

 

[RS9999X]

A summary from the article

Based on a future 14-member football league (in 2015, the Big East adds Navy as a football-only member and has plans to add a 14th school, preferably Air Force or BYU) and an 18-member basketball league, the media rights deal would be worth the following amounts per school annually:

A $130 million deal per year (as speculated by Pilson) would be worth $8.66 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $2.16 million each for the eight non-football members.

A $60 million deal per year (as speculated by CBSSports.com’s sources, slightly better than their low end) would be worth $4 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each to the four football-only members; and $1 million each to the eight non-football members.

Another fallacy here is based on the revenue split: it assumes football is worth 3X basketball and the total contract will be 66.6% football revenue (split 12 ways) and 33.3% basketball (split 18 ways). That's aggressive given the regional nature of the BE content and the popularity of some of the basketball programs in large metros (watch Temple football or basketball)?

The length of the contract also makes a difference on reporting numbers. A 10 year contract to UConn with the 6% yearly bump starts at $6.75 mil to reach an $8.66 mil average. Run that to 15 years and its a $10 mil average. start it at $7.5 mil and go 12 years and it's still around $10 mil average.

The devil will be in the details . You can be sure no one from the BE will issue a press release and say "This is what it pays per team per sport in Year 1."

 

[CL82]

Let me offer what I think is the difference in viewpoints of the #ClapHarder crowd and the #WhineHarder group. The #WhineHarder group looks at the quality of the football games and says, not completely without basis, a lot of the games are going to suck. I understand and don't necessarily disagree with that point. The so called #ClapHarder crowd seems to saying while that may be true, says NBC and Fox need content and were are the best college sports content that's ESPN hasn't locked down. So NBC either has write off their investment, a significant part of which is right here in Connecticut, or buy and promote Big East sports. Now if Fox pays a bargin basement rate for the league, it won't hold together, and they will lose both their investment in the contract and their investment in being a player in live sports broadcasting. That's not a winning strategy for them. They will have to price this contract at least in the vicinity of the (crappy) ACC deal if not just a bit higher. Keep in mind that without the Big East they have no content and this new venture (their sports network) will fail. Likewise ESPN doesn't want anyone fishin' in their pond, they will do anything the reasonably can to stop it. CBS does not have the infrastructure to expand it's current role, and their role might well be reduced if NBC becomes a player. So it's reasonable when Carl (...yeah...I'm supporting him...at least as far as this point) says that you should take things that people with an economically opposing interest with a grain of salt.

Within the very narrow viewpoint of what's a better game on any given Saturday, I whole heartily agree that a lot the BE games are going to be a warm pile of crap (as many of our games were last year), but I don't think that's where the value comes from in our deal. It comes from 1) NBC's (and Fox) need to have something to wrap commercials around (and something that cable operators will pay for) and 2) from the ever growing value of live sports. Above, I referred to the ACC deal as crap, and it is by today's standards, but it is a significant improvement over its old deal, which was considered outstanding when it first came out. That rising tide will float the value of the BE's next contract as well as long at stays together long enough to happen. While I would much rather be in a league that makes geographic sense and play against schools I give a crap about, and unfortunately everyday that looks less and less likely to happen, I can still see that even a pile of manure has value when you are trying to get something to grow.

Now what puzzles me from the #WhineHarder crowd is why when a crappy little unsources BS article comes out do you guys so enthusiastically embrace it and take it even futher than what it actually says? What is the point of that? To paraphrase from the movie Groundhog Day "I'm guessing that you are the glass is half empty kind of guys." Listening to a bunch of whiners on a death watch is going to make this board a freaking rectal exam from now until we either get a new TV deal or a new league.

So again #WhineHarders, I get it we aren't the B1G or the SEC in terms of the quality of football. Hopefully, even the most morose of you now understand that so called #ClapHarders are just saying "Golly everything is great". Instead they are taking a different (and of course to my way of thinking more accurate) view of where the value of our next deal comes from in our next TV deal.

So suck it up, take a Prosac and try get outside this long weekend. You guys worry me.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

CL 82 - excellent post!

While some people are looking at today's NBE as crap, but I wholly hardly don't believe it will be the case for the future. The new deal needs to take into consideration on the growth of this league. While ACC teams pretty much hit their peak, NBE teams are barely getting started. With some new money and prestige, growth will be there.

Here are just some of the examples right off the bat:

* UCF is already looking at expanding their football stadium to 57K. Their stadium design looks a lot like ours, I wish we start to plan for that now. http://ucfgoldenknightsclub.com/facility-projects/football-expansion/

Boise also has a project that will expand their stadium t0 55K at some point:

Houston is building a brand new $120M stadium (40K now expandable easily to 50K) and a new basketball arena ($40M):

http://houston.sbnation.com/2010/6/10/1512376/university-of-houston-announces

Memphis is improving the Liberty Bowl. SMU is spending money on their facilities. The list goes on and on. NBE teams won't be like what they are today in 5 years.

 

[junglehusky]

Do you think UConn wants to wait 5-10 years for the NNBE to start realizing its potential? If we #BegHarder and somehow manage to get an ACC / B10 invite, should we then sit tight for a year to learn the fate of the NBC/fox negotiations? Sorry if my questions sound like #WhineHarder. Personally I am curious as to what the league can get if it holds together, but I'm not curious enough to wait patiently to find out, all the time giving Louisville and Rutgers more time to map their escape routes.

Now we're just fans, we can take one side or another. I hope UConn's decision makers are doing both #BegHarder and #ClapHarder, in case we can leave the NNBE in the case of the former, or if we can't in the case of the latter.

 

[JaYnYcE]

Die thread die!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Do you guys remember how awful the Big East looked on paper going into 2005, and then how badly it performed on the field? WVU and Louisville were the only remotely competitive programs in the conference. Pitt was supposed to be good, but sucked, and Syracuse started the GRob death spiral. UConn and USF were recent D1AA upgrades, Rutgers was a punch line, and I bet if you asked 100 casual college football fans in 2004 to name the 8 New Big East teams, less than 30 would be able to come up with Cincinnati. How did the next 7 years go in terms of on the field play?

Fans like new things, and they like winners. Every college football fan knows Boise now. If Houston had another big year, they would become the talk of Texas. Louisville is a year away from being really good. None are traditional big names, but all have the fan base, resources and platform to be very successful. And when they win, the national following will come too.