Ruh Roh... the BE might be getting an unpleasant SURPRISE

[huskyjawz]

A summary from the article

Based on a future 14-member football league (in 2015, the Big East adds Navy as a football-only member and has plans to add a 14th school, preferably Air Force or BYU) and an 18-member basketball league, the media rights deal would be worth the following amounts per school annually:

A $130 million deal per year (as speculated by Pilson) would be worth $8.66 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $2.16 million each for the eight non-football members.

A $60 million deal per year (as speculated by CBSSports.com’s sources, slightly better than their low end) would be worth $4 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each to the four football-only members; and $1 million each to the eight non-football members.

Thanks for that brilliant summary.

 

[Nostical]

I agree that the Big10 is a pipedream also. It would be one hell of a pipedream to come true, but that's really all it is.

Well now, that all depends (in the immortal words of Bill Clinton) on what your definition of Pipedream is. If you mean Pipedream as it originally was derived--from one's irrational delusions after smoking a pipe filled with Opium, then I would agree. But the BiG difference here is that my pipe isn't filled with Opium--it's filled with Herbs(t).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Those conferences all, attractive have good teams. The Big East has a compilation of former Mountain West and Con-USA squads. That's the difference

Question for Jericho and Observer,

What is the ACC deal worth if the league is Duke, BCU, Wake, Syracuse, Maryland, Pitt, and Miami?

 

[MattMang23]

Can I answer that?

A heckuvalot more than a conference featuring SDSU, SMU, Houston, Memphis, Temple, UCF, and unfortunately, UConn.

I guess we all missed those big paydays the MWC and C-USA had.

 

[auggie22]

I have no idea what the NBE's new TV deal will be worth however I think anyone surmising that the contract will only net the men's basketball members $1m each per year need only to look at the recent Lady Huskies deal with SNY for $1.4m a year to see how much of a low-ball estimate that is. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, Memphis, and Temple men's hoops being worth less each than the lady Huskies. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Lady Huskies but that is insane.

Great point. And that is $1.4M for Uconn Women's THIRD TIER rights! So apparently the NBE's 1st and 2nd-tier men's bball is worth less than Geno's coaching shows with a dozen or so of the least attractive games.

 

[Waquoit]

Great point. And that is $1.4M for Uconn Women's THIRD TIER rights! So apparently the NBE's 1st and 2nd-tier men's bball is worth less than Geno's coaching shows with a dozen or so of the least attractive games.

What you just said here is true. That's why so many sad faces.

 

[Waquoit]

Unlike this board, the people in that meeting do not have their head's up their asses - they know that this is going to hurt and they know that the conference will lose more members.

But what are the chances that one of those members is UConn? 10%? Is it at least greater than 0%? I don't care about the Big East anymore, I care about UConn. Do we have any hope at all? I think we're doomed.

 

[freescooter]

Waquoit,
I'm sort of with you. When the last round of conference jumping happened I posted that I was really worried that UCONN would get left behind and Iused Kansas as an example...a real true blue blood in basketball almost got left in the dumpster...the basketball folks all said that was impossible...nobodywould leave a basketball power like UCONN on the sidelines...but I think it is more and more looking like it will happen...I tell you, if I were Herbst and Manuel I would be trying to work out a deal for a new league with the North Carolina and Virginia membersof the ACC, Maryland, UCONN, Syracuse Pitt and BC. If Miami or someone doesn't get into the B12, take them too, but instead of being a pawn in this, try to be aggressive for a change.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I have no idea what the NBE's new TV deal will be worth however I think anyone surmising that the contract will only net the men's basketball members $1m each per year need only to look at the recent Lady Huskies deal with SNY for $1.4m a year to see how much of a low-ball estimate that is. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette, Memphis, and Temple men's hoops being worth less each than the lady Huskies. Now don't get me wrong, I LOVE the Lady Huskies but that is insane.

That is how the league divides it up. My guess is that if you actually split the rights, basketball alone could pull in close to the $60M. It's BE football that has little value to ESPN. With a zillion channels, plus online, they need the hoops content bigtime. In fact, that would be my suggestion to the league. Sell hoops rights to ESPN, and football to NBC.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

That is how the league divides it up. My guess is that if you actually split the rights, basketball alone could pull in close to the $60M. It's BE football that has little value to ESPN. With a zillion channels, plus online, they need the hoops content bigtime. In fact, that would be my suggestion to the league. Sell hoops rights to ESPN, and football to NBC.

I largely agree with what you say but would also suggest that if NBC is willing to pay a premium for Big East hoops that the money may be more vital to the league than the exposure at this point. Big East hoops is really the biggest bargaining chip we have.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

What you just said here is true. That's why so many sad faces.

It is simply not true. The hoops schools could break away and team up with the best of the A10 and do better than that.

 

[RS9999X]

NOTE TO CARL SPACKLER: IGNORE IGNORE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE

Speculation on the market value that the NNBE can get in this McMurphy article... he cites one guy who thinks it'll be over $130 million (good) but also cites "industry sources" (i.e., Carl's moles / conspiracy kitty's mysterious puppet masters) who say it could be less... a lot less. If true this could accelerate the run for the exits.



Does the ACC deal still look bad now?

McMurphy's run with these figures before. Desperate for the attention I might add.

I accept the $135 million as 'not impossible' and the $60 million as possible only if ND, UConn, Rutgers, and Louisville end up elsewhere.

At some point the conference is nothing more than a remarketed version of the C-USA and Mountatin West. Now its a "best of the remaining programs and markets" aggregation.

Let's not forget in some markets like CT Basketball is as good if not a better draw than Football. In the Northeast this is true: from PC to Georgetown (SJU, Nova, Rutgers, Temple, SHU and to some extend Louisvlle).

If the Big 12 goes to 14 then there's a different discussion. Until that happens the BE isn't going to see under $100 million.

 

[RS9999X]

At least someone was taken in by the spin...

UConn's not smiling - not even a little.

But if you'd like to keep sprinkling fairy dust on this mess, please, feel free. The reality of it will settle in on even the thickest of skulls at some point.

The big fish in the pond are always hungry. You should know this .

I don't think its as bad as noted. No question the cohesion thing is a joke. This conference is now a classic Rube Goldberg kludge machine held together by duct tape. But that doesn't make it worthless. The "Best of the Rest" strategy in football has always been the BE strategy.

 

[junglehusky]

Held together by duct tape and #ClapHarder.

 

[RS9999X]

A summary from the article

Based on a future 14-member football league (in 2015, the Big East adds Navy as a football-only member and has plans to add a 14th school, preferably Air Force or BYU) and an 18-member basketball league, the media rights deal would be worth the following amounts per school annually:

A $130 million deal per year (as speculated by Pilson) would be worth $8.66 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $2.16 million each for the eight non-football members.

A $60 million deal per year (as speculated by CBSSports.com’s sources, slightly better than their low end) would be worth $4 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each to the four football-only members; and $1 million each to the eight non-football members.

Another fallacy here is based on the revenue split: it assumes football is worth 3X basketball and the total contract will be 66.6% football revenue (split 12 ways) and 33.3% basketball (split 18 ways). That's aggressive given the regional nature of the BE content and the popularity of some of the basketball programs in large metros (watch Temple football or basketball)?

The length of the contract also makes a difference on reporting numbers. A 10 year contract to UConn with the 6% yearly bump starts at $6.75 mil to reach an $8.66 mil average. Run that to 15 years and its a $10 mil average. start it at $7.5 mil and go 12 years and it's still around $10 mil average.

The devil will be in the details . You can be sure no one from the BE will issue a press release and say "This is what it pays per team per sport in Year 1."

 

[CL82]

Let me offer what I think is the difference in viewpoints of the #ClapHarder crowd and the #WhineHarder group. The #WhineHarder group looks at the quality of the football games and says, not completely without basis, a lot of the games are going to suck. I understand and don't necessarily disagree with that point. The so called #ClapHarder crowd seems to saying while that may be true, says NBC and Fox need content and were are the best college sports content that's ESPN hasn't locked down. So NBC either has write off their investment, a significant part of which is right here in Connecticut, or buy and promote Big East sports. Now if Fox pays a bargin basement rate for the league, it won't hold together, and they will lose both their investment in the contract and their investment in being a player in live sports broadcasting. That's not a winning strategy for them. They will have to price this contract at least in the vicinity of the (crappy) ACC deal if not just a bit higher. Keep in mind that without the Big East they have no content and this new venture (their sports network) will fail. Likewise ESPN doesn't want anyone fishin' in their pond, they will do anything the reasonably can to stop it. CBS does not have the infrastructure to expand it's current role, and their role might well be reduced if NBC becomes a player. So it's reasonable when Carl (...yeah...I'm supporting him...at least as far as this point) says that you should take things that people with an economically opposing interest with a grain of salt.

Within the very narrow viewpoint of what's a better game on any given Saturday, I whole heartily agree that a lot the BE games are going to be a warm pile of crap (as many of our games were last year), but I don't think that's where the value comes from in our deal. It comes from 1) NBC's (and Fox) need to have something to wrap commercials around (and something that cable operators will pay for) and 2) from the ever growing value of live sports. Above, I referred to the ACC deal as crap, and it is by today's standards, but it is a significant improvement over its old deal, which was considered outstanding when it first came out. That rising tide will float the value of the BE's next contract as well as long at stays together long enough to happen. While I would much rather be in a league that makes geographic sense and play against schools I give a crap about, and unfortunately everyday that looks less and less likely to happen, I can still see that even a pile of manure has value when you are trying to get something to grow.

Now what puzzles me from the #WhineHarder crowd is why when a crappy little unsources BS article comes out do you guys so enthusiastically embrace it and take it even futher than what it actually says? What is the point of that? To paraphrase from the movie Groundhog Day "I'm guessing that you are the glass is half empty kind of guys." Listening to a bunch of whiners on a death watch is going to make this board a freaking rectal exam from now until we either get a new TV deal or a new league.

So again #WhineHarders, I get it we aren't the B1G or the SEC in terms of the quality of football. Hopefully, even the most morose of you now understand that so called #ClapHarders are just saying "Golly everything is great". Instead they are taking a different (and of course to my way of thinking more accurate) view of where the value of our next deal comes from in our next TV deal.

So suck it up, take a Prosac and try get outside this long weekend. You guys worry me.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

CL 82 - excellent post!

While some people are looking at today's NBE as crap, but I wholly hardly don't believe it will be the case for the future. The new deal needs to take into consideration on the growth of this league. While ACC teams pretty much hit their peak, NBE teams are barely getting started. With some new money and prestige, growth will be there.

Here are just some of the examples right off the bat:

* UCF is already looking at expanding their football stadium to 57K. Their stadium design looks a lot like ours, I wish we start to plan for that now. http://ucfgoldenknightsclub.com/facility-projects/football-expansion/

Boise also has a project that will expand their stadium t0 55K at some point:

Houston is building a brand new $120M stadium (40K now expandable easily to 50K) and a new basketball arena ($40M):

http://houston.sbnation.com/2010/6/10/1512376/university-of-houston-announces

Memphis is improving the Liberty Bowl. SMU is spending money on their facilities. The list goes on and on. NBE teams won't be like what they are today in 5 years.

 

[junglehusky]

Do you think UConn wants to wait 5-10 years for the NNBE to start realizing its potential? If we #BegHarder and somehow manage to get an ACC / B10 invite, should we then sit tight for a year to learn the fate of the NBC/fox negotiations? Sorry if my questions sound like #WhineHarder. Personally I am curious as to what the league can get if it holds together, but I'm not curious enough to wait patiently to find out, all the time giving Louisville and Rutgers more time to map their escape routes.

Now we're just fans, we can take one side or another. I hope UConn's decision makers are doing both #BegHarder and #ClapHarder, in case we can leave the NNBE in the case of the former, or if we can't in the case of the latter.

 

[JaYnYcE]

Die thread die!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Do you guys remember how awful the Big East looked on paper going into 2005, and then how badly it performed on the field? WVU and Louisville were the only remotely competitive programs in the conference. Pitt was supposed to be good, but sucked, and Syracuse started the GRob death spiral. UConn and USF were recent D1AA upgrades, Rutgers was a punch line, and I bet if you asked 100 casual college football fans in 2004 to name the 8 New Big East teams, less than 30 would be able to come up with Cincinnati. How did the next 7 years go in terms of on the field play?

Fans like new things, and they like winners. Every college football fan knows Boise now. If Houston had another big year, they would become the talk of Texas. Louisville is a year away from being really good. None are traditional big names, but all have the fan base, resources and platform to be very successful. And when they win, the national following will come too.

 

[Waquoit]

It is simply not true. The hoops schools could break away and team up with the best of the A10 and do better than that.

Like PC? Their Tier 3 games are played on the Cox Sports Channel. A channel so successful that Cox dropped it from their own extended basic tier.

 

[CTGoonie]

Well now, that all depends (in the immortal words of Bill Clinton) on what your definition of Pipedream is. If you mean Pipedream as it originally was derived--from one's irrational delusions after smoking a pipe filled with Opium, then I would agree. But the BiG difference here is that my pipe isn't filled with Opium--it's filled with Herbs(t).

There is a difference between Herbst wanting the invite to the B10 and Herbst actually having a shot at the invite. What are the odds in your opinion of Uconn getting an invite to the B10?

 

[CL82]

Do you think UConn wants to wait 5-10 years for the NNBE to start realizing its potential? No I don't. I think that we should realize the economic value of the new version of our conference (which is largely derived by touching upon a lot of household across a lot of time zones) within 6 months. Keep in mind that though we may know what the value is, we won't "realize" it until our existing contracts lapse. If we #BegHarder and somehow manage to get an ACC / B10 invite, should we then sit tight for a year to learn the fate of the NBC/fox negotiations? This is kind of a loaded question, so let me break it down into its component parts. 1) I think we'll know what the value of contract is within 6 months. 2) If the B1G comes a calling we say yes. We don't ask any questions; we don't negotiate; we say yes. Then we drop to our knees and thank the lord. Now the B1G has its own problems for us, including travel, no natural rivals, and difficulty of competition. All that is outweighed by stability, quality leadership, prestige, the league's academic consortium and of course the value of its contract. 3) If the ACC comes calling the answer isn't as easy. Are FSU, Clemson, GT, Virginia and Maryland gone? If so then I think the answer is no. If some of them have left we'd have to think about it. That baby step up might not be the best choice for us. If all of those programs have still around the answer is probably yes, although we'll still be on the outside of the big 4 conferences looking in. Sorry if my questions sound like #WhineHarder. It doesn't but when you nearly blew a load in your pants with joy because of a craptastic unsourced article said our conference sucks...well that kinda did. Personally I am curious as to what the league can get if it holds together, but I'm not curious enough to wait patiently to find out, all the time giving Louisville and Rutgers more time to map their escape routes. I think it was you who had a throwaway line about the Big East school's "prisoner’s dilemma'. I think that is spot one of the biggest impediments to stability for our conference and is fast become the biggest one for the ACC as well. Now we're just fans, we can take one side or another. I hope UConn's decision makers are doing both #BegHarder and #ClapHarder, in case we can leave the NNBE in the case of the former, or if we can't in the case of the latter.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

Like PC? Their Tier 3 games are played on the Cox Sports Channel. A channel so successful that Cox dropped it from their own extended basic tier.

I didn't mention PC when I listed the top basketball draws for a reason. If what you are saying is true than it would make more sense for the popular teams to simply opt out of the conferences media deal and form their own media deals with regional sports stations. UConn, Georgetown, Villanova, ect. can get more than $1m per year on their own.

 

[Jericho]

Thanks for that brilliant summary.

Thanks for your brilliant reply

 

[junglehusky]

CL, I mostly agree with your points. I just think it's hard to guess the value we're going to get with instability being a huge part of the equation. In regards to the first point, it's not just that the NNBE football product is under the big 4 conferences, or that it will take at least a few years to measure up to its potential, it's the public perception that could impact what the networks offer. Sure it's been a chicken-and-egg question with ESPN... but we have to be honest about whether all the new FB teams as an aggregate help or hurt the product, perceptions, and potential value. Boise is the only positive, all the rest just don't match up. They're there for the markets and it's an open question how many eyeballs in Texas will watch SMU/UH instead of UT and the rest.

I'm starting to ramble, so I'll make one small point. As to the original article, yes we should all take it with a grain of salt (I was only half joking about Carl having to ignore ignore ignore). If the deal comes in lower than $130, believe me I would take no joy in that... what the response of UConn's decision makers is depends on how low, I suppose.

 

[Jericho]

Question for Jericho and Observer,

What is the ACC deal worth if the league is Duke, BCU, Wake, Syracuse, Maryland, Pitt, and Miami?

I don't know why you feel the need to single me out, as I think you know the answer. But obviously it's not worth as much. Schools like Duke (a true national brand in hoops), Miami, Maryland and to an extent Pitt bring something to the table. But it's not Super exciting.

 

[CL82]

CL, I mostly agree with your points. I just think it's hard to guess the value we're going to get with instability being a huge part of the equation. In regards to the first point, it's not just that the NNBE football product is under the big 4 conferences, or that it will take at least a few years to measure up to its potential, it's the public perception that could impact what the networks offer. Sure it's been a chicken-and-egg question with ESPN... but we have to be honest about whether all the new FB teams as an aggregate help or hurt the product, perceptions, and potential value. Boise is the only positive, all the rest just don't match up. They're there for the markets and it's an open question how many eyeballs in Texas will watch SMU/UH instead of UT and the rest.

I'm starting to ramble, so I'll make one small point. As to the original article, yes we should all take it with a grain of salt (I was only half joking about Carl having to ignore ignore ignore). If the deal comes in lower than $130, believe me I would take no joy in that... what the response of UConn's decision makers is depends on how low, I suppose.

Fair enough. I think the biggest place where we disagree is the value of the new schools. I don't love having them in conference but I think they do bring value in that we've got product that allows NBC (or whomever) the ability to present programming across an entire programming day. I don't think we can be sure of the value one way or another until the new contract is inked. Until then, I'll be cautiously hopeful.

 

[Waquoit]

I didn't mention PC when I listed the top basketball draws for a reason. If what you are saying is true than it would make more sense for the popular teams to simply opt out of the conferences media deal and form their own media deals with regional sports stations. UConn, Georgetown, Villanova, ect. can get more than $1m per year on their own.

How many teams make up the "etc" you mention? Marquette maybe?

 

[pj]

The posters who think we don't have a chance of going to the Big Ten are overlooking two things:
1) Why was it Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC, when UConn and Rutgers would have been much more valuable? Because UConn and Rutgers are heading to the Big Ten.
2) The brand value to the Big Ten of a presence in NYC. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State want to have a NY area game on their schedule annually. With UConn and Rutgers, they get one each year. They're looking at the population of NJ/NY/NE as an audience for Michigan/OSU/PSU/Nebraska etc.

The trouble with the NBE media contract is going to be this: UConn and Rutgers (and Louisville) will not allow the contract to prevent their departure ... so the networks will have to lowball the bid or include a provision for reducing payouts upon departures.

The other wild card is if a recession hits soon, these media valuations could shrink suddenly.