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RPI

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August_West said:
2 more is my over under. Over 2 and we start sweating . 2 or less and we are great
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They can lose @SMU, @Cincy, and maybe another road game (@Temple?) but that's it. If they go into the AAC tournament with 7 losses, they're probably a 6-8 seed. They go in with more they are bubbly, and the committee has not been kind to American bubble teams.
 
tzznandrew said:
You're not deserving if you can't beat the Tulsas and Temples of the world consistently.

Right now they have 5 losses. They can afford a few more. But not many. And if they don't get in it won't be because they scheduled challenging teams OOC, ultimately, but because they couldn't beat the mediocre teams in conference.
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A lot of teams that will be in the tourney can't beat Tulsa and Temple consistently. And I'm talking about at large teams, not low major conference tourney winners.

Butler just lost to Creighton. Butler will be in. Their KenPom rating is below UConn's.
 
tzznandrew said:
They can lose @SMU, @Cincy, and maybe another road game (@Temple?) but that's it. If they go into the AAC tournament with 7 losses, they're probably a 6-8 seed. They go in with more they are bubbly, and the committee has not been kind to American bubble teams.
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exactly my point, you typing that 3rd loss (@temple?) made you shake a little bit, no? There is a good chance wed be alright anyway in your scenario, but it would not be without some schpilkes
 
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upstater said:
A lot of teams that will be in the tourney can't beat Tulsa and Temple consistently. And I'm talking about at large teams, not low major conference tourney winners.

Butler just lost to Creighton. Butler will be in. Their KenPom rating is below UConn's.
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I'm not convinced Butler is in. A neutral win against Purdue is all they have for Top 50 wins and a middling RPI. It's better than ours, but I think our resume is likely better than theirs (more Top 50 wins, better NCSOS, etc.).
 
tzznandrew said:
I'm not convinced Butler is in. A neutral win against Purdue is all they have for Top 50 wins and a middling RPI. It's better than ours, but I think our resume is likely better than theirs (more Top 50 wins, better NCSOS, etc.).
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Also they're 2-5 in conference as of now, obviously can improve but as of right now not good 9-9 in the NBE is not good enough.
 
4in16 said:
Also they're 2-5 in conference as of now, obviously can improve but as of right now not good 9-9 in the NBE is not good enough.
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It's funny though. Rothstein at CBS is still ranking them, and they get AP votes.
 
tzznandrew said:
I'm not convinced Butler is in. A neutral win against Purdue is all they have for Top 50 wins and a middling RPI. It's better than ours, but I think our resume is likely better than theirs (more Top 50 wins, better NCSOS, etc.).
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I agree, Butler is going to have to do a lot more to get in at the end of the day. Lunardi has them 2 spots away from the last 4 in and a play in game. 1-5 vs the Top 50 and 3 top 100 wins isn't good.

No idea how people are still ranking them.
 
UConn needs to just win. There are a lot of easy wins left on the schedule. If they aren't easy, UConn should not be going to the dance.
 
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4in16 said:
Also they're 2-5 in conference as of now, obviously can improve but as of right now not good 9-9 in the NBE is not good enough.
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Butler also won @ Cincinnati. If they go 9-9 in the Big East, they'll be in.
 
upstater said:
Games against low-majors shouldn't even count in the RPI unless they are bonafide winners over good competition, or conference regular seasons champs--unless you lose of course. I see no reason why a win over Austin Peay or Coppin St. should be considered a better win than over New Hampshire. Makes no sense.
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the argument I've been making for years

why should a win over a 150 team be so much better than a win over a 250 team
 
willie99 said:
the argument I've been making for years

why should a win over a 150 team be so much better than a win over a 250 team
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Because a 150 team is so much better than a 250 team maybe?
 
Waquoit said:
Because a 150 team is so much better than a 250 team maybe?
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Which is the 150 and which is the 250?

Schedule #1:
8 Wins, 10 Losses

at UNLV L, 74-72
at UCLA L, 88-83
Cal State Monterey Bay W, 71-62
Austin Peay W, 73-64
UMBC W, 78-65
University of Antelope Valley W, 85-55
IPFW L, 75-73
Fresno State W, 77-65
at Saint Mary's L, 93-63
at USC L, 101-82
at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi L, 80-74
at UTSA W, 88-73
at Texas A&M L, 82-63
at Hawai'i L, 86-73
UC Santa Barbara L, 76-73
Long Beach State W, 96-92
at CSUN L, 76-74
at Cal State Fullerton 83-75

Schedule #2
10 Wins, 9 Losses

University of Illinois - Chicago W 78-75
Rice University W 80-54
Fresno State L 71-78
University of California Riverside W 58-57
University of California Santa Barbara L 61-68
Delaware State University W 67-47
Eastern Washington University L 77-81
University of Montana L 50-82
California State University, Northridge W 65-61
Coppin State University W 96-93
Saint Mary's College of California L 52-74
University of the Pacific W 89-76
University of Portland W 107-95
Gonzaga University L 94-102
University of San Diego W 73-65
Brigham Young University L 92-102
Loyola Marymount University L 83-87
Pepperdine University L 84-98
Santa Clara University W 74-61
 
I've always looked at Top 100 wins first. Anyone can schedule top 100 games and any top 100 team is capable of upsetting a top 25 team. So I think it's a good measure when comparing teams with different access to schedules. If you are 6-6 that's not as good as 4-2, so some adjustments should be made for how you fare in the opportunities you are given.

Top 50 wins trump Top 100, and Top 25 trump Top 50. Being 1-0 against top 25 is nice, but on its own shouldn't be a deciding factor.

In general if you have a plus .500 record vs the Top 50 you are a tournament team. If you have a good record against the Top 100 then you should be considered.

I also give preference to conference record. If you are in 8th place in your conference, you better have some charming M-F wins as Jules might say.
 
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Rocktheworld said:
Other teams we have played may have dropped in RPI, transitively dropping ours.

That phenomenon is part of why RPI isn't worth a thing until Selection Sunday
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Or... other teams that played yesterday improved their RPI. I always scratch my head when people act like our RPI ranking changing on off days is weird or something. When we move up after a win, you don't think we're pushing down teams that didn't play?

Besides, any system that takes schedule strength into account will have the "phenomenon" you described.
 
champs99and04 said:
Butler also won @ Cincinnati. If they go 9-9 in the Big East, they'll be in.
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That would give them 11 losses assuming a tourney loss. There were years in the old BE when teams didn't make it after going .500.
 
Waquoit said:
Because a 150 team is so much better than a 250 team maybe?
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so whipping a team you're supposed to whip by 20 is so much more impressive than whipping a team you're supposed to whip by 30

I value performances against teams that can actually compete with you, the weight given to weaker teams should be watered down

to each his own
 
upstater said:
Are we not talking about getting into the tournament? Because you can't beat them all every year. Some years you're going to be middling (like this year) but still deserving.
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UConn is always going to have their "wtf" losses. It's been the only consistent thing about the program in the recent past.

You have to have some quality wins to absorb some bad losses, because there are going to be bad losses.

Imagine if we didn't have the OOC wins this year, but still had the Tulsa and Temple losses. We'd be firmly out of the tournament at this point. We're not a program that will run the table. Not disciplined enough.
 
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Rocktheworld said:
Other teams we have played may have dropped in RPI, transitively dropping ours.

That phenomenon is part of why RPI isn't worth a thing until Selection Sunday
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With tongue firmly planted in cheek. I know that other teams are playing to affect UCONN's RPI.
 
upstater said:
That would give them 11 losses assuming a tourney loss. There were years in the old BE when teams didn't make it after going .500.
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They're still firmly in as of today, per Lunardi. You really think 6-4 doesn't have them in a good spot heading into the Big East Tournament? This isn't the old Big East, but the New Big East is a quality league, at least from an RPI standpoint, so coupled with what Butler did OOC I would expect them to be in.
 
champs99and04 said:
They're still firmly in as of today, per Lunardi. You really think 6-4 doesn't have them in a good spot heading into the Big East Tournament? This isn't the old Big East, but the New Big East is a quality league, at least from an RPI standpoint, so coupled with what Butler did OOC I would expect them to be in.
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I don't, no. 11 losses coming out of the BE means you're not in the tourney.
 
upstater said:
I don't, no. 11 losses coming out of the BE means you're not in the tourney.
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Again, we had 13 losses in 2012 and were a 9 seed.

Their only OOC conference loss was to Miami and they have the neutral win over Purdue and the road win at Cincy. They absolutely can get in with a .500 conference record.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
Again, we had 13 losses in 2012 and were a 9 seed.

Their only OOC conference loss was to Miami and they have the neutral win over Purdue and the road win at Cincy. They absolutely can get in with a .500 conference record.
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But in 2012 we had an RPI of 32 and our SOS was #2 (damn, I didn't even know it was that high)

Butler currently has an RPI of 57 and their SOS is 90.

Their record right now 14-6. Don't see how they'd be able to get in with another 4 losses in their conference.
 
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