RPI

[Towney007]

We're what - #31 in KenPom? Not pooping my pants, exactly. They beat Cincy (#33), they're in pretty darn good shape.

 

[huskyharry]

Stop scheduling with schools in the 200s and 300s and we'd be in the top 10 in RPI

A statistical effect that really does not demonstrate the true strength of schedule.whether you play the 200th team or the 335th team, they are both schools that an NCAA tournament should dispatch without difficulty. For a hypothetical example, giving a South Dakota State a very high RPI score because their cupcakes are 175-225 and giving UConn a poor score because our cupcakes are 275-335 is ridiculous. At some statistically appropriate cutoff the opponent RPI should be standardized....for illustration say that they should all be given a 200 ranking.
IMO would give a much better metric.

Now that site does given a useful illustration. If UConn loses five or more of the remaining games, they will have to win the AAC tournament to get in. Even with four losses, we should be sweating on selection Sunday.

 

[A10 fan]

I ran it with UConn losing at Memphis, Cincy, Temple, and SMU, and the RPI was 32. So basically, win at home, and beat the scrubs on the road, and the team will be in good shape. Switch one of those road losses to a win, and all you're worried about is seeding. The key is to avoid any wtf type losses.

 

[SubbaBub]

To be fair, those are really the only games we can lose. If they end up 22-9 with another home loss, their RPI is around 44.

Got to take care of home games, and gotta win all the remaining "gimmes" on the board.

Bingo, the RPI wizard makes me feel a bit better but it also shows how little margin for error we have in the AAC without a strong OOC resume.

Some folks have yet to come to terms with that fact, which was part of my point. And RPI of 27 gets us in, and RPI of 44 probably doesn't this season with all the bubble teams, regardless of how you feel about it's value.

Anybody here think we don't have at least one more WTF loss coming?

 

[tzznandrew]

Bingo, the RPI wizard makes me feel a bit better but it also shows how little margin for error we have in the AAC without a strong OOC resume.

Some folks have yet to come to terms with that fact, which was part of my point. And RPI of 27 gets us in, and RPI of 44 probably doesn't this season with all the bubble teams, regardless of how you feel about it's value.

Anybody here think we don't have at least one more WTF loss coming?

There's always the AAC tournament, though, which is great.

We can have a WTF loss (provided it's an old school one against a mediocre team, not against UCF/USF/ECU)...on the road. At home it will be killer.

It's rough that Syracuse, Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Ohio State are having down years. Those teams, plus Maryland, Michigan, and Texas constitute a really good OOC that just didn't deliver.

The dregs are going to be the dregs. You'd like them to avoid 300+ teams, but other than CCSU, those are generally hard to identify...and we need the buy games.

 

[upstater]

For BPI yes. Although Brimah not considered a "top player" right now, I thought he was last time I looked this up.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/41

Look how they define it: *Top players are the five players with highest MPG that have played at least half the team's games this season.

If Ben Simmons missed 15 games, he wouldn't be considered a top player for LSU.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Win the AAC tourney and get the auto-bid. Someone get me the "Easley" button!

 

[Brochacho]

Win the AAC tourney and get the auto-bid. Someone get me the "Easley" button!

Wow. I photoshopped that thing like 7 years ago how do you still remember that!?

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Wow. I photoshopped that thing like 7 years ago how do you still remember that!?

Who could forget Marcus Easley??? I'm hoping that Noel can replicate Easley's final season next year en route to UConn winning a national championship in football....or maybe a bowl game.

 

[Tenspro2002]

It's rough that Syracuse, Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Ohio State are having down years. Those teams, plus Maryland, Michigan, and Texas constitute a really good OOC that just didn't deliver.

The dregs are going to be the dregs. You'd like them to avoid 300+ teams, but other than CCSU, those are generally hard to identify...and we need the buy games.

It's funny, it seems like that happens a lot. We schedule big names OOC, and they don't live up to the billing. I remember in 2014, in addition to Florida, our big OOC wins were Maryland, Indiana, and Washington. They were expected to be RPI 25-40 teams. They all finished around 100. Similar story this year with the teams you mentioned -- just bad luck for us.

On the other hand, the dregs I think you can do something about. 2014 is a good example here too: our "cupcakes" were BU (90), Yale (104), Harvard (44), Detroit (234), Loyola (273), Maine (333), Eastern Washington (230). Only one sub-300 and two sub-250.

Stop scheduling multiple America East or NEC teams. Get a top Ivy or two, a few mid-majors (A-10, Colonial, Horizon). I understand the economics of the home gate and some higher level teams being unwilling to schedule a one-off road game, but there are ways to be more savvy about this and this year we were not.

 

[Rico444]

Who could forget Marcus Easley??? I'm hoping that Noel can replicate Easley's final season next year en route to UConn winning a national championship in football....or maybe a bowl game.

Never really watched football games until the last few years, but I used to work with Marcus' stepfather (who is a great guy). So I've kept an eye on his NFL journey and always rooted for the kid. Hopefully he bounces back from that knee injury; it sounded pretty bad.

 

[Inyatkin]

I can understand staying away from Maine or UMass-Lowell, but I'll never have a problem with scheduling the other Connecticut teams. As long as we don't do all of them in one year.

 

[Waquoit]

The gold standard year of cupcakes was 2005-06. Home game against #329, #327, #325, #312, #276 and #266. And we all know how that turned out. Hopefully the new AD can do better next year.

 

[zls44]

For BPI yes. Although Brimah not considered a "top player" right now, I thought he was last time I looked this up. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/41

What it does is use top 5 MPG to determine top players. Amida has been out for so long, he's no longer a top 5 guy.

Once he gets back and gets his usual minutes, it'll revert the team strength of those games back and UConn will get a bump. It's an odd situation to lose a key guy for six weeks right in the middle of the year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

There's always the AAC tournament, though, which is great.

We can have a WTF loss (provided it's an old school one against a mediocre team, not against UCF/USF/ECU)...on the road. At home it will be killer.

It's rough that Syracuse, Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Ohio State are having down years. Those teams, plus Maryland, Michigan, and Texas constitute a really good OOC that just didn't deliver.

The dregs are going to be the dregs. You'd like them to avoid 300+ teams, but other than CCSU, those are generally hard to identify...and we need the buy games.

I think you will see Gonzaga ranked by the end of the year. Take a look at their actual losses. To a highly ranked A&M team by 1, to a ranked Arizona team by 5, to UCLA by 5, to a good BYU team by 1 and @ St. Mary's by 3. They are good.

Out OOC schedule is fine, it's quite good really, we just needed to win more against it. Syracuse really cost us because it kept us out of a game vs. A&M.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Out OOC schedule is fine, it's quite good really, we just needed to win more against it. Syracuse really cost us because it kept us out of a game vs. A&M.

Absolutely agree with this. In a normal year, our OOC schedule is probably considered the best in the country with games against Michigan, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Maryland, Ohio State, Texas and Georgetown. It just so happens that this is a year where Syracuse and Ohio State are down considerably and Georgetown has a couple of wtf losses from earlier in the year.

If our OOC schedule remains like this while we are in the AAC, we will be in good shape. I know next year that we are back in Maui and have games versus Ohio State, Arizona and Georgetown with potential game(s) versus Cuse and/or Baylor.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

The gold standard year of cupcakes was 2005-06. Home game against #329, #327, #325, #312, #276 and #266. And we all know how that turned out. Hopefully the new AD can do better next year.

It turned out with a #1 seed.

 

[Waquoit]

It turned out with a #1 seed.

That was nearly the first #1 seed to lose in the first round.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

That was nearly the first #1 seed to lose in the first round.

But won by a dozen and was a ____ hair from another Final Four.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

That was nearly the first #1 seed to lose in the first round.

If we're talking about non-conference scheduling and RPI, then we're talking about tournament resumes and seeding. Clearly the OOC scheduling did not hurt the 06 team in that regard.

And you don't actually believe our tournament struggles that year were due to too many easy games in November do you? We went to Maui and played 18 Big East games. I'm pretty sure that team was "battle tested" by the postseason.

 

[Inyatkin]

We need a designated schedule so we can debate 2006 on a regular basis. "They were the worst!" "They won 30 games!" "They underachieved!" "Most talented ever!"

 

[bobbygt]

It's funny, it seems like that happens a lot. We schedule big names OOC, and they don't live up to the billing. I remember in 2014, in addition to Florida, our big OOC wins were Maryland, Indiana, and Washington. They were expected to be RPI 25-40 teams. They all finished around 100. Similar story this year with the teams you mentioned -- just bad luck for us.

I completely get where you're coming from, but two things:

1. I'll take wins against Michigan, OSU, Texas, and Georgetown even if all of these teams were 5-14 and on probation. It's always good beating elite programs.

2. If we traded those four teams with Michigan St., Iowa, Texas A&M, and Villanova, we could be looking at a 10-9 record. In other years, I'd want to play the best, but not this year. Brimah's injury and team cohesion have made this a fragile season.

We just need to win most of our AAC games.

 

[HooperScooper]

I hate Bracket talk in January but here goes anyway.

Jerry Palm's updated bracket. UConn an 11 seed and in a group of the last four in. I thought he had them in his brackets last week as a 10 seed? Just win baby! Win and everything else takes care of itself.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...moves-up-to-a-no-1-seed-after-villanovas-loss

Connecticut: UConn is probably the team I get asked most about. The Huskies have been in and out of the rankings this season, but I haven't had them in a bracket before putting them in the First Four today. They have a couple of nice wins over Texas and Michigan, which are middle of the bracket level teams at the moment, but they have an unfortunate collection of losses. Four of the five teams that have beaten UConn are either not likely to be tournament teams or teams that the Huskies would be competing with for a spot in the field. They have losses to Gonzaga, which is also one of the last four teams in the bracket, Tulsa, which is in the field as the American Athletic Conference leader, and to Syracuse and Temple, which are out for now.

UConn fans point out that the team has been without C Amida Brimah for the last ten games. That's not really much of a factor. The Huskies beat Texas without Brimah, but also lost to Temple and Tulsa. They beat Michigan before he broke his finger, but also lost to Syracuse and Gonzaga. They are who they are. Brimah is expected back before too terribly long and if he's that big of a factor, they'll have the stretch run of the season to show it.

 

[upstater]

I hate Bracket talk in January but here goes anyway.

Jerry Palm's updated bracket. UConn an 11 seed and in a group of the last four in. I thought he had them in his brackets last week as a 10 seed? Just win baby! Win and everything else takes care of itself.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...moves-up-to-a-no-1-seed-after-villanovas-loss

Connecticut: UConn is probably the team I get asked most about. The Huskies have been in and out of the rankings this season, but I haven't had them in a bracket before putting them in the First Four today. They have a couple of nice wins over Texas and Michigan, which are middle of the bracket level teams at the moment, but they have an unfortunate collection of losses. Four of the five teams that have beaten UConn are either not likely to be tournament teams or teams that the Huskies would be competing with for a spot in the field. They have losses to Gonzaga, which is also one of the last four teams in the bracket, Tulsa, which is in the field as the American Athletic Conference leader, and to Syracuse and Temple, which are out for now.

UConn fans point out that the team has been without C Amida Brimah for the last ten games. That's not really much of a factor. The Huskies beat Texas without Brimah, but also lost to Temple and Tulsa. They beat Michigan before he broke his finger, but also lost to Syracuse and Gonzaga. They are who they are. Brimah is expected back before too terribly long and if he's that big of a factor, they'll have the stretch run of the season to show it.

If this holds, and UConn wins its share of games and is still left out, the program might want to reconsider its tough OOC schedules.

I know it sucks for fans. But one way to game the RPI is to win many games against those 150-200 level teams, and then do well in the conference.

Memphis used to do this regularly under Calipari. They never played anyone in the OOC.

Again, this is horrible for the fans, but if the NCAA tourney is now constructed in this way, it really doesn't pay to schedule 7 good or traditional programs in the OOC.

 

[tzznandrew]

If this holds, and UConn wins its share of games and is still left out, the program might want to reconsider its tough OOC schedules.

I know it sucks for fans. But one way to game the RPI is to win many games against those 150-200 level teams, and then do well in the conference.

Memphis used to do this regularly under Calipari. They never played anyone in the OOC.

Again, this is horrible for the fans, but if the NCAA tourney is now constructed in this way, it really doesn't pay to schedule 7 good or traditional programs in the OOC.

Or, you know, beat the Syracuses, Gonzagas, Temples, and Tulsas of the world...