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Red Sox Panic Thread

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Until you realize that Tampa Bay still has only 1.8% chance of getting in the playoffs statistically. So...fail.
 

doggydaddy

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Sox are closer to 3rd than 1st. You think the Sox have only a 1.8% chance to win the division?

Seriously, the momentum is certainly in the wrong direction for the Sox. They are not only losing, but look really bad in doing it.

But you just keep whistling past the graveyard.
 
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Sox are closer to 3rd than 1st. You think the Sox have only a 1.8% chance to win the division?

Seriously, the momentum is certainly in the wrong direction for the Sox. They are not only losing, but look really bad in doing it.

But you just keep whistling past the graveyard.

Not winning the division, getting into the playoffs (1.8% for TB). Last time I checked, the Sox have a good record being the wild card team in the post season.
 

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Not winning the division, getting into the playoffs (1.8% for TB). Last time I checked, the Sox have a good record being the wild card team in the post season.
It's up to about 12% at the moment. A three game lead with sixteen left is no slam dunk.
 
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It's up to about 12% at the moment. A three game lead with sixteen left is no slam dunk.

It's much lower than 12% because you have to factor in the fact that if the Red Sox win against TB with their remaining games that it counts 2 against TB in the magic number. The real percentage will come out tomorrow on Baseball Prospectus but I don't expect it to be much higher than 5 or 6%
 

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David Ortiz thinks it's time to panic.
 

FfldCntyFan

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It's much lower than 12% because you have to factor in the fact that if the Red Sox win against TB with their remaining games that it counts 2 against TB in the magic number. The real percentage will come out tomorrow on Baseball Prospectus but I don't expect it to be much higher than 5 or 6%
By that logic wouildn't it also be greater because you would also factor in if the Rays beat the Sox it also counts as two?

Below is ESPN current standings. They have TB @ 11.4%. I don't know how close this will be to Baseball Prospectus but I would wager that BP will also be far closer top 12% than 5%-6%.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings
 
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BP has Tampa at 3.1% making the playoffs with 3.0% chance of winning the WC and 0.1% chance of winning the division.

Red Sox are at 96.9% to make the playoffs with a 13.6% chance of winning the division and 83.3% chance of winning the wild card.
 
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Sox are closer to 3rd than 1st. You think the Sox have only a 1.8% chance to win the division?

Seriously, the momentum is certainly in the wrong direction for the Sox. They are not only losing, but look really bad in doing it.

But you just keep whistling past the graveyard.

By graveyard do you mean not making the playoffs or doing poorly in the playoffs. No doubt the Sox are playing poorly and have issues but I still see them making the playoffs. They have seven games left with Buck's bums while TB has seven left with NY. Yanks haven't beeen tearing it up either, my friend.
 

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By graveyard do you mean not making the playoffs or doing poorly in the playoffs. No doubt the Sox are playing poorly and have issues but I still see them making the playoffs. They have seven games left with Buck's bums while TB has seven left with NY. Yanks haven't beeen tearing it up either, my friend.

Yanks had a 4 game slide, 3 of those in extra innings. Not that this is a reason or excuse, but playing the game before that 4 game stretch until 2:30 that morning, playing the next game that afternoon, flight right to Baltimore and then right to LA didn't help either.

And before that they won 6 straight and 8 out of 10. Not even close to how poorly the Sox are playing.

I find the % of making the playoffs to be comical. It doesn't take into consideration that the Sox are struggling and the Rays are on fire. And it doesn't take into consideration that the Sox are really beat up at this time, especially in the rotation.
 
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Yanks had a 4 game slide, 3 of those in extra innings. Not that this is a reason or excuse, but playing the game before that 4 game stretch until 2:30 that morning, playing the next game that afternoon, flight right to Baltimore and then right to LA didn't help either.

And before that they won 6 straight and 8 out of 10. Not even close to how poorly the Sox are playing.

I find the % of making the playoffs to be comical. It doesn't take into consideration that the Sox are struggling and the Rays are on fire. And it doesn't take into consideration that the Sox are really beat up at this time, especially in the rotation.

You didn't answer my question regarding the graveyard comment.
 
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Yanks won yesterday on a dropped fly ball or else they would be on a 5 game skid. Not at all excited about the way they are swinging the bats heading in and their starting pitching changes week to week. Now Colon looks to be 2 or 3 with Nova and Garcia can't get anyone out. Both teams are Scary Bad and the Rays with those pitchers look pretty tough!
 

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You didn't answer my question regarding the graveyard comment.
I thnk my post to NHUconnfan was pretty clear. He was feeling comfortable based on the 1.8% chance of the Rays making the playoffs.

The facts don't show that based on how the Sox are playing, how injured they are and how well the Rays are playing.

How you feeling about it?
 

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Yanks won yesterday on a dropped fly ball or else they would be on a 5 game skid. Not at all excited about the way they are swinging the bats heading in and their starting pitching changes week to week. Now Colon looks to be 2 or 3 with Nova and Garcia can't get anyone out. Both teams are Scary Bad and the Rays with those pitchers look pretty tough!
But they won. So could of means nothing. And they won 6 in a row before struggling.

It's not even close on how the two teams have played the last 10-12 games.
 
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I thnk my post to NHUconnfan was pretty clear. He was feeling comfortable based on the 1.8% chance of the Rays making the playoffs.

The facts don't show that based on how the Sox are playing, how injured they are and how well the Rays are playing.

How you feeling about it?

I really, truly, am not worried. All of this "worried" talk is people creating stories for the sake of keeping journalists in business on an otherwise unexciting September for baseball. You gotta look at the facts, and the Red Sox are still overwhelmingly in control of getting a playoff spot.
 
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I really, truly, am not worried. All of this "worried" talk is people creating stories for the sake of keeping journalists in business on an otherwise unexciting September for baseball. You gotta look at the facts, and the Red Sox are still overwhelmingly in control of getting a playoff spot.

Like the fact that 3 of the Sox starters in the 4 game series against the Rays are Miller, Weiland and Wakefield? And that the Rays are going to be starting Hellickson, Shields, Neiman and Price. Yeah, the Sox are going in the right direction all right.
 
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Like the fact that 3 of the Sox starters in the 4 game series against the Rays are Miller, Weiland and Wakefield? And that the Rays are going to be starting Hellickson, Shields, Neiman and Price. Yeah, the Sox are going in the right direction all right.

Or the fact that Buchholz may be back in time for the playoffs. Or that Beckett threw off the mound today. Or the fact that the Sox still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
 
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Or the fact that Buchholz may be back in time for the playoffs. Or that Beckett threw off the mound today. Or the fact that the Sox still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league.

So how does that Buchholz may be back for playoffs (if they make it) and Beckett threw off a mound today help them against those pitchers the Rays are throwing in a couple days?
 
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So how does that Buchholz may be back for playoffs (if they make it) and Beckett threw off a mound today help them against those pitchers the Rays are throwing in a couple days?

You're really stretching.

16 games left. If the Sox go .500, TB has to go .688 to tie. Just think about that. TB has 11 of their 16 games against the Sox and the Yankees. I just seriously don't think it's going to happen.
 
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You're really stretching.

16 games left. If the Sox go .500, TB has to go .688 to tie. Just think about that. TB has 11 of their 16 games against the Sox and the Yankees. I just seriously don't think it's going to happen.

Have you seen the lineups Girardi is throwing out lately? Girardi is an idiot and rests everyone under the sun at the end of the season. Wait till the last series they play with the Rays if they clinched a playoff spot. The Yanks have called up a ton of minor leaguers this year and Girardi is going to rest all his players.

And you keep saying they are playing the Red Sox. They just swept them and they are throwing their 3 worst pitchers against the Rays best.
 
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Have you seen the lineups Girardi is throwing out lately? Girardi is an idiot and rests everyone under the sun at the end of the season. Wait till the last series they play with the Rays if they clinched a playoff spot. The Yanks have called up a ton of minor leaguers this year and Girardi is going to rest all his players.

And you keep saying they are playing the Red Sox. They just swept them and they are throwing their 3 worst pitchers against the Rays best.

The Sox also have 7 games against Baltimore...
 

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Have you seen the lineups Girardi is throwing out lately? Girardi is an idiot and rests everyone under the sun at the end of the season. Wait till the last series they play with the Rays if they clinched a playoff spot. The Yanks have called up a ton of minor leaguers this year and Girardi is going to rest all his players.

And you keep saying they are playing the Red Sox. They just swept them and they are throwing their 3 worst pitchers against the Rays best.

Girardi is only being an idiot because he isn't playing the called-up pitchers nearly enough.
 

doggydaddy

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I really, truly, am not worried. All of this "worried" talk is people creating stories for the sake of keeping journalists in business on an otherwise unexciting September for baseball. You gotta look at the facts, and the Red Sox are still overwhelmingly in control of getting a playoff spot.
Well, god bless your optomism.
 
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