Recruit Ranking vs. Staying on the Team

[DefenseBB]

With the signing period just ending and the anxiety on the BY going through the roof, I did some research on a theory I have about the top programs and the "volume" approach. I wanted to see how many players each program is losing. I used the HoopGurlz class rankings from 2015, 2016 and 2017 as it's easy to see who is still on the roster. I also added in the 2018 and 2019 recruiting to get overall numbers. Given the attrition rate due to transfers, maybe a few of the lost recruits will make their way back to Storrs like Batouly Camara.

Programs considered-UConn, ND, Stanford, Louisville, Texas, Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, South Carolina, Duke and our friends in Knoxville-Tennessee.

The initial takeaways:

The best program at recruiting and retaining players?.....Stanford. Tara has recruited 12 players in 3 years and all 12 are still on the roster. Her recruiting was not ranked (NR) in the top 20 in 2015, #9-2016, #5-2017, #10-2018 and #2 in 2019.

The worst program's attrition was...Baylor. Kim has signed 12 players in 3 years and 7 have left the program (though to be fair, Morris may come back). Her recruiting ranking has been #4-2015, #2-2016, #7-2017, #1-2018 and NR in 2019.

Any yes my fellow BY'ers, our "make an offer to anyone" Jeff Walz has also signed 12 players and 6 have left the program.
Louisville recruit ranking #2-2015, #6-2016, #4-2017, #15-2018, #15-2019.

Also with 50% loss rate is Oregon. Kelly has recruited 10 players and 5 have left. The big class of 2016, ranked #3 with 7 players and 3 have left the program. Oregon for all the media attention could be in trouble once Sabrina and Ruthy leave as Oregon did not rank in the top 20 class rankings in 2015 or 2017, 2018, 2019.

UConn, as most of you know, has signed 10 players in 3 years and 2 have left. Natalie and Z were not included in these numbers as transfers.

2nd to Stanford in lowest attrition rate was ….Duke! JPM recruited 11 players and only 2 have left-Salavadores being the key departure. Her recruiting class rankings were #1-2015 (Salvadores), Not ranked in top 20 in 2016, #11-2017, NR 2018, #13 in 2019.

South Carolina will be very interesting to watch the drama unfold. Dawn signed 9 recruits in '15-17 and 4 have left the program, (not including Jatarie White who signed from 2014). In 2018 (3) and 2019 (5) she signed 8 more players. Playing time will be an issue and I suspect 3 to 4 players will leave.

Lastly, before I show the table, the Transfer rule for undergrads to sit one year is still in effect for WCBB (unless a hardship is exhibited or you want to transfer to ND, in which case you can play right away! -Sorry Dillon, Orang, Fightin Choke).

Hopefully, my table below is understood. Let me know your thoughts.

 

[CocoHusky]

Solid work!

 

[pvdoggy]

The 2 better academic schools have the least transfer, make sense to me.

 

[Bama fan]

With the signing period just ending and the anxiety on the BY going through the roof, I did some research on a theory I have about the top programs and the "volume" approach. I wanted to see how many players each program is losing. I used the HoopGurlz class rankings from 2015, 2016 and 2017 as it's easy to see who is still on the roster. I also added in the 2018 and 2019 recruiting to get overall numbers. Given the attrition rate due to transfers, maybe a few of the lost recruits will make their way back to Storrs like Batouly Camara.

Programs considered-UConn, ND, Stanford, Louisville, Texas, Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, South Carolina, Duke and our friends in Knoxville-Tennessee.

The initial takeaways:

The best program at recruiting and retaining players?.....Stanford. Tara has recruited 12 players in 3 years and all 12 are still on the roster. Her recruiting was not ranked (NR) in the top 20 in 2015, #9-2016, #5-2017, #10-2018 and #2 in 2019.

The worst program's attrition was...Baylor. Kim has signed 12 players in 3 years and 7 have left the program (though to be fair, Morris may come back). Her recruiting ranking has been #4-2015, #2-2016, #7-2017, #1-2018 and NR in 2019.

Any yes my fellow BY'ers, our "make an offer to anyone" Jeff Walz has also signed 12 players and 6 have left the program.
Louisville recruit ranking #2-2015, #6-2016, #4-2017, #15-2018, #15-2019.

Also with 50% loss rate is Oregon. Kelly has recruited 10 players and 5 have left. The big class of 2016, ranked #3 with 7 players and 3 have left the program. Oregon for all the media attention could be in trouble once Sabrina and Ruthy leave as Oregon did not rank in the top 20 class rankings in 2015 or 2017, 2018, 2019.

UConn, as most of you know, has signed 10 players in 3 years and 2 have left. Natalie and Z were not included in these numbers as transfers.

2nd to Stanford in lowest attrition rate was ….Duke! JPM recruited 11 players and only 2 have left-Salavadores being the key departure. Her recruiting class rankings were #1-2015 (Salvadores), Not ranked in top 20 in 2016, #11-2017, NR 2018, #13 in 2019.

South Carolina will be very interesting to watch the drama unfold. Dawn signed 9 recruits in '15-17 and 4 have left the program, (not including Jatarie White who signed from 2014). In 2018 (3) and 2019 (5) she signed 8 more players. Playing time will be an issue and I suspect 3 to 4 players will leave.

Lastly, before I show the table, the Transfer rule for undergrads to sit one year is still in effect for WCBB (unless a hardship is exhibited or you want to transfer to ND, in which case you can play right away! -Sorry Dillon, Orang, Fightin Choke).

Hopefully, my table below is understood. Let me know your thoughts.

View attachment 36862

Nice job, my friend. I love the reference to the "Irish Exemption". Funny

 

[nwhoopfan]

Cool. That must've taken some time to compile. I know you can't look at every school, too time consuming. I think Oregon St. has had a low attrition rate during this period.

 

[Dillon77]

Nice job, my friend. I love the reference to the "Irish Exemption". Funny

Immediate eligibility: Another selling point for the Irish!
(At some point, you just have to go with the flow....)

Great work, DefenseBB. It's amazing that since Muffet likes to have no more than 12 scholarship players on the roster, losing 2 can register as a nearly 30% transfer rate. (For some reason, I don't think that will make her recruit higher numbers )

 

[DefenseBB]

Cool. That must've taken some time to compile. I know you can't look at every school, too time consuming. I think Oregon St. has had a low attrition rate during this period.

Because it's you and that you keep me posted on the late night PAC-12 games when the rest of the forum is sleeping, I just did it -
here's OSU
2015=NR/3 1 departed,
2016-#16/4 0 dep,
2017 #15/2 0 dep, 9 total signed, 1 departed, 11% attrition
2018 NR/3
2019 #17/2

 

[DallasBUFan]

With the signing period just ending and the anxiety on the BY going through the roof, I did some research on a theory I have about the top programs and the "volume" approach. I wanted to see how many players each program is losing. I used the HoopGurlz class rankings from 2015, 2016 and 2017 as it's easy to see who is still on the roster. I also added in the 2018 and 2019 recruiting to get overall numbers. Given the attrition rate due to transfers, maybe a few of the lost recruits will make their way back to Storrs like Batouly Camara.

Programs considered-UConn, ND, Stanford, Louisville, Texas, Baylor, Oregon, Maryland, South Carolina, Duke and our friends in Knoxville-Tennessee.

The initial takeaways:

The best program at recruiting and retaining players?.....Stanford. Tara has recruited 12 players in 3 years and all 12 are still on the roster. Her recruiting was not ranked (NR) in the top 20 in 2015, #9-2016, #5-2017, #10-2018 and #2 in 2019.

The worst program's attrition was...Baylor. Kim has signed 12 players in 3 years and 7 have left the program (though to be fair, Morris may come back). Her recruiting ranking has been #4-2015, #2-2016, #7-2017, #1-2018 and NR in 2019.

Any yes my fellow BY'ers, our "make an offer to anyone" Jeff Walz has also signed 12 players and 6 have left the program.
Louisville recruit ranking #2-2015, #6-2016, #4-2017, #15-2018, #15-2019.

Also with 50% loss rate is Oregon. Kelly has recruited 10 players and 5 have left. The big class of 2016, ranked #3 with 7 players and 3 have left the program. Oregon for all the media attention could be in trouble once Sabrina and Ruthy leave as Oregon did not rank in the top 20 class rankings in 2015 or 2017, 2018, 2019.

UConn, as most of you know, has signed 10 players in 3 years and 2 have left. Natalie and Z were not included in these numbers as transfers.

2nd to Stanford in lowest attrition rate was ….Duke! JPM recruited 11 players and only 2 have left-Salavadores being the key departure. Her recruiting class rankings were #1-2015 (Salvadores), Not ranked in top 20 in 2016, #11-2017, NR 2018, #13 in 2019.

South Carolina will be very interesting to watch the drama unfold. Dawn signed 9 recruits in '15-17 and 4 have left the program, (not including Jatarie White who signed from 2014). In 2018 (3) and 2019 (5) she signed 8 more players. Playing time will be an issue and I suspect 3 to 4 players will leave.

Lastly, before I show the table, the Transfer rule for undergrads to sit one year is still in effect for WCBB (unless a hardship is exhibited or you want to transfer to ND, in which case you can play right away! -Sorry Dillon, Orang, Fightin Choke).

Hopefully, my table below is understood. Let me know your thoughts.

View attachment 36862

Nice work!

This got me curious as to who all left Baylor. Your number for Baylor on 2017 is wrong. It is 1 and that is Alexis Morris

Kalani's class was a total bust!

2015 Recruits
Kalani Brown - Still there
Beatrice Mompremier - Transferred Miami....
Alexandra Gulley - Medically Retired and I believe graduated or about to graduate Baylor.
Alyssa Dry - Quit Basketball and is still attending Baylor
Justis Szczepanski-Beavers - Dismissed from team and transferred to UNT and dismissed there or quit.

2016 Recruits
Lauren Cox - Still there
Juciy Landrum - Still there
Natalie Chou - Transferred UCLA

2017 Recruits
Didi Richards - Still there
Trinity Oliver - Still there
Alexis Morris - Dismissed and will be returning 2019-2020 season
Moon Ursin - Still there

 

[TerpWomenFan]

Very nice read. Great job.

 

[DefenseBB]

Nice work!

This got me curious as to who all left Baylor. Your number for Baylor on 2017 is wrong. It is 1 and that is Alexis Morris

My error, I didn't see Oliver when I looked. Thanks for the correction.

Still a 50% attrition rate pending Morris.
Kim needs to tone down the "volume numbers" and get a more balanced yearly number. The last 5 years-5 recruits, 3, 4, 5, than 1 this year, that's 18 recruits, second only to Louisville's 19. Normalize it to 2/3 per year to keep and develop them.

 

[DefenseBB]

Our colleague @DallasBUFan has prompted me to look at the number of recruits over the 5 years each of these schools has signed. I think this is relevant as well as it means schools spend money, effort and time "wooing" players, without some return for their efforts. I mean if you constantly lose players and have to replace them every 2 years vs. every 4, doesn't that hurt you W/L totals and programs esteem? Some numbers are more relevant than others. For example, Muffet likes a smaller squad 10-12 (ideally 12), others like Tara like a larger one 14/15. Louisville and Baylor typically like 12 so their numbers really are a bit problematic in my view.

Here's the numbers:
UConn-13
ND-13
Stanford-17
Louisville-19
Texas-15
Baylor-18
Oregon-16
Maryland-16
South Carolina-17
Duke-17
Tennessee-14

 

[TerpWomenFan]

I think also, it's not how many you sign but the type of player you sign. Stanford have no problem signing players out of the top 100.

2015 - three players out of top 100
2016 - 1
2017 - 1
2018 - 1 (Lexie sister Lacie)

As you can see they have been getting more elite recruits lately including the 4 great players for 2019 but as in the year 2015 Tara will fill her roster with non elite players. I can't see Louisville. Baylor or Texas doing this (Correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Over the last few years, every once and a while, a thought pops up unbidden: How many of those high recruiting rank McD's AA types enter the college ranks never to be heard of again?

 

[Charliebball]

My error, I didn't see Oliver when I looked. Thanks for the correction.

Still a 50% attrition rate pending Morris.
Kim needs to tone down the "volume numbers" and get a more balanced yearly number. The last 5 years-5 recruits, 3, 4, 5, than 1 this year, that's 18 recruits, second only to Louisville's 19. Normalize it to 2/3 per year to keep and develop them.

it's not just the number of recruits signed that leads to transfers, it's multiple players at the same position

 

[nwhoopfan]

Because it's you and that you keep me posted on the late night PAC-12 games when the rest of the forum is sleeping, I just did it -
here's OSU
2015=NR/3 1 departed,
2016-#16/4 0 dep,
2017 #15/2 0 dep, 9 total signed, 1 departed, 11% attrition
2018 NR/3
2019 #17/2

Thanks DBB. I think they've lost 2. Breanna Brown as a grad transfer to GA Tech and Taylor Kalmer to San Diego St. (sitting out this season).

 

[DallasBUFan]

My error, I didn't see Oliver when I looked. Thanks for the correction.

Still a 50% attrition rate pending Morris.
Kim needs to tone down the "volume numbers" and get a more balanced yearly number. The last 5 years-5 recruits, 3, 4, 5, than 1 this year, that's 18 recruits, second only to Louisville's 19. Normalize it to 2/3 per year to keep and develop them.

I think that is what she is getting back to, but if Kalani's class hadn't fallen apart I think the numbers wold be dramatically higher.

 

[bballnut90]

Really good read. Anything above 3 recruits seems very likely to lead to transfers. Excluding Stanford (where no one ever transfers) every class listed with 4 or more players from 2015 and 2016 had at least 2 transfer out.

The 2017 class has really only played for 1 year so far, and we've already seen 4 of the 5 classes that took 4 or more players lose someone to transfer/dismissal. Duke, of all schools, has kept their class in tact so far, but we usually see a larger number of transfers after the sophomore year.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Excluding Stanford (where no one ever transfers)

Almost true. Lili Thompson recently and Jamie Carey years ago are the only ones I can think of. Both may have had extenuating circumstances due to injuries. Carey for sure, retired medically but was cleared to play later at Texas.

They also don't accept many transfers. Brooke Smith is the only example I can think of.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Over the last few years, every once and a while, a thought pops up unbidden: How many of those high recruiting rank McD's AA types enter the college ranks never to be heard of again?

Was wondering the same thing when we were talking last week about UConn players transferring out. How many ever go onto be an impact at their new school or the pros (i.e. UConn really missed out) excluding EDD who was never really here? In a way you could view the transfer outs as bailing Geno out of a bad recruiting decision.

 

[Go/huskies]

Almost true. Lili Thompson recently and Jamie Carey years ago are the only ones I can think of. Both may have had extenuating circumstances due to injuries. Carey for sure, retired medically but was cleared to play later at Texas.

They also don't accept many transfers. Brooke Smith is the only example I can think of.

Michelle Harrison Stanford to Utah is the only other one.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Michelle Harrison Stanford to Utah is the only other one.

A few others who stopped playing w/ eligibility left but I don't think they transferred elsewhere. Kailee Johnson (that was so confusing w/ having a teammate named Kaylee Johnson) and John Elway's daughter. Also I think J.J. Hones was kicked off the team but I don't think she resurfaced elsewhere.

 

[CocoHusky]

Was wondering the same thing when we were talking last week about UConn players transferring out. How many ever go onto be an impact at their new school or the pros (i.e. UConn really missed out) excluding EDD who was never really here? In a way you could view the transfer outs as bailing Geno out of a bad recruiting decision.

Michala Johnson had a few good seasons at Wisconsin ended up averaging about 15 PPG over three season there.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Sadie Edwards at USC and Ekmark at Arizona St. did fairly well moving out west.

 

[SCGamecock]

South Carolina graduates 4 (5, if Cooper leaves) players after this season and graduates 3 after the 2019-20 season, including our starting point guard. This big 2019 class was necessary just to cover what we're going to lose these next two years. 2020 and 2021 classes for us are more than likely not going to be as big (we almost never follow a big class up with ANOTHER big class).

Players may transfer out, I would never guarantee we won't have transfers in today's climate, but it's probably not going to be the players some people are hoping it would be. Obviously, South Carolina needs impact players and with this class, we brought in impact players for every position.. If players leave, it'll be the ones afraid of having their playing time swiped away by this 2019 class, because these kids are coming to Columbia to PLAY.. and they will play.

 

[shizam]

Our colleague @DallasBUFan has prompted me to look at the number of recruits over the 5 years each of these schools has signed. I think this is relevant as well as it means schools spend money, effort and time "wooing" players, without some return for their efforts. I mean if you constantly lose players and have to replace them every 2 years vs. every 4, doesn't that hurt you W/L totals and programs esteem? Some numbers are more relevant than others. For example, Muffet likes a smaller squad 10-12 (ideally 12), others like Tara like a larger one 14/15. Louisville and Baylor typically like 12 so their numbers really are a bit problematic in my view.

Here's the numbers:
UConn-13
ND-13
Stanford-17
Louisville-19
Texas-15
Baylor-18
Oregon-16
Maryland-16
South Carolina-17
Duke-17
Tennessee-14

Might not be popular but that’s how L’ville got to the final four. I don’t know of any transfers who left that hurt L’ville. Cole didn’t hurt. Mariya didn’t hurt. B. Jones and Syd Zambrotta didn’t hurt. Ciera Johnson might her next two years but last year they didn’t miss her

 

[shizam]

Over the last few years, every once and a while, a thought pops up unbidden: How many of those high recruiting rank McD's AA types enter the college ranks never to be heard of again?

Exactly. When I became a fan 5 yrs ago I thought McD AA wow! Used to count the number on the roster. Not anymore. I don’t expect anything until I see the production on the court. L’ville lost Kakala a McD AA and she even had to redshirt last year (maybe she wasn’t ready or roster stacked) and left this year for Pacific. Hope she does great for herself and Pacific but Walz didn’t get much for all his effort and all the fanfare around getting her. All it did was make his recruiting class look better temporarily. What team has lost the most McD AA’s in last 3 years? L’ville Mariya Moore, Taja Cole, Ciera Johnson and Kakala. That’s 4 in 3 years. To be fair Moore and Cole were addition by subtraction for Cards and they both went to better fits for themselves. Kakala and Johnson might be missed but they don’t get up and down the court well.

 

[Boreifs]

The methodology used here definitely puts UConn in a much more favorable light. In the last five years, they have had four players transfer (Edwards,Boykin,Eckmark, AEH), but they have also had three players leave with eligibility remaining (Tuck,Butler,Z). Losing seven players in five years, no matter what the circumstances (WNBA) is a lot. When Lloyd left ND early, it was considered to be a negative; UConn is no different.

 

[paisan]

Maybe the problem is letting espn do your scouting for you. J

 

[CocoHusky]

The methodology used here definitely puts UConn in a much more favorable light. In the last five years, they have had four players transfer (Edwards,Boykin,Eckmark, AEH), but they have also had three players leave with eligibility remaining (Tuck,Butler,Z). Losing seven players in five years, no matter what the circumstances (WNBA) is a lot. When Lloyd left ND early, it was considered to be a negative; UConn is no different.

There are also some compounding factor with early departures from UCONN.
1) All three were post players.
2) The announcement are typically made in April which is too late to adjust because 99.9% of recruits are already signed for the up coming season.

 

[WNBA 09]

Could someone give a breakdown of Maryland? I feel like Brenda Frese has had a revolving door annually!