Recruit Ranking vs. Staying on the Team

[shizam]

Over the last few years, every once and a while, a thought pops up unbidden: How many of those high recruiting rank McD's AA types enter the college ranks never to be heard of again?

Exactly. When I became a fan 5 yrs ago I thought McD AA wow! Used to count the number on the roster. Not anymore. I don’t expect anything until I see the production on the court. L’ville lost Kakala a McD AA and she even had to redshirt last year (maybe she wasn’t ready or roster stacked) and left this year for Pacific. Hope she does great for herself and Pacific but Walz didn’t get much for all his effort and all the fanfare around getting her. All it did was make his recruiting class look better temporarily. What team has lost the most McD AA’s in last 3 years? L’ville Mariya Moore, Taja Cole, Ciera Johnson and Kakala. That’s 4 in 3 years. To be fair Moore and Cole were addition by subtraction for Cards and they both went to better fits for themselves. Kakala and Johnson might be missed but they don’t get up and down the court well.

 

[Boreifs]

The methodology used here definitely puts UConn in a much more favorable light. In the last five years, they have had four players transfer (Edwards,Boykin,Eckmark, AEH), but they have also had three players leave with eligibility remaining (Tuck,Butler,Z). Losing seven players in five years, no matter what the circumstances (WNBA) is a lot. When Lloyd left ND early, it was considered to be a negative; UConn is no different.

 

[paisan]

Maybe the problem is letting espn do your scouting for you. J

 

[CocoHusky]

The methodology used here definitely puts UConn in a much more favorable light. In the last five years, they have had four players transfer (Edwards,Boykin,Eckmark, AEH), but they have also had three players leave with eligibility remaining (Tuck,Butler,Z). Losing seven players in five years, no matter what the circumstances (WNBA) is a lot. When Lloyd left ND early, it was considered to be a negative; UConn is no different.

There are also some compounding factor with early departures from UCONN.
1) All three were post players.
2) The announcement are typically made in April which is too late to adjust because 99.9% of recruits are already signed for the up coming season.

 

[WNBA 09]

Could someone give a breakdown of Maryland? I feel like Brenda Frese has had a revolving door annually!

 

[CBus13]

A few others who stopped playing w/ eligibility left but I don't think they transferred elsewhere. Kailee Johnson (that was so confusing w/ having a teammate named Kaylee Johnson) and John Elway's daughter. Also I think J.J. Hones was kicked off the team but I don't think she resurfaced elsewhere.

Taylor Rooks (from N.J.) played a year at Stanford (2014-2015) and then transferred to Harvard and is now doing a graduate year at Michigan.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Hi all, great report. Part of this is just luck/flukes. For Stanford, as others noted, in the recruiting classes a few years farther back, we had Taylor Rooks (top 20 recruit) transfer to Harvard after her frosh season, Kailee Johnson (top 20 recruit) quit basketball with a year remaining, and Lili sit out a year and then grad transfer to ND. Note that the last one seemed to be due to some friction between her/her family's expectations of how she should be used vs. how the coaches wanted to use her. (The full story was never made public, but apparently she had a helicopter parent who became dissatisfied with the Stanford coaches.)

In her ESPN interview, Haley Jones spoke about the sisterhood she feels with the Stanford players as one of the big reasons for her choice - a lot of the credit for that is due to the example that our 16-17 senior class set (Erica McCall, Karlie Samuelson, and Bri Roberson). Prior to their senior season, the team was not as cohesive and lacked obvious charismatic leaders, and those transfers/early retirements in part reflected that. Both their class and our 2018 graduating class of Brittany McPhee and Kaylee Johnson were outstanding leaders and set a really great tone for the program. Kaylee Johnson in particular is someone I could see being a senator one day. I think we're now reaping the benefits of that from with our recruiting commitments, and I think they deserve some credit for it.

All of which is to say, so many things go into why a program does or does not retain 100% of its recruits, but part of it is definitely team cohesion. Much more enjoyable to warm the bench when you like who you're sitting next to!

 

[JDuro]

South Carolina will be very interesting to watch the drama unfold. Dawn signed 9 recruits in '15-17 and 4 have left the program, (not including Jatarie White who signed from 2014). In 2018 (3) and 2019 (5) she signed 8 more players. Playing time will be an issue and I suspect 3 to 4 players will leave.

The four South Carolina players you mention were Shay Colley, Haley Troupe, Araion Bradshaw, and Victoria Patrick. None were significant contributors on gamedays and only two left due to playing time (Bradshaw, Patrick), the latter proving not to be a P5 caliber player. Of the other 2, one never even suited up for SC, leaving b/c her lead recruiter left to take a HC job (Troupe), and the other left due to homesickness (Colley). In Dawn’s tenure, she’s only had one significant team contributor leave and that was Kelsey Bone way back in 2010 during the rebuilding years, homesickness the reason given.

So while transferring is always a concern, especially nowadays, I expect the full haul of the ‘19 South Carolina class will play out their collegiate careers as Gamecocks.

 

[DefenseBB]

So while transferring is always a concern, especially nowadays, I expect the full haul of the ‘19 South Carolina class will play out their collegiate careers as Gamecocks.

I am a huge baseball/sabermetrics guy, so while I laud your support, the numbers say otherwise. Large recruiting classes do not stay for 4 years-unless you go to Stanford! I will be glad to wager that this 2019 class will not graduate with all 5 having played 4 years at SC.

 

[DefenseBB]

Could someone give a breakdown of Maryland? I feel like Brenda Frese has had a revolving door annually!

I did include Brenda, and while I too initially thought the same thing, of the 9 recruits she signed from '15-17 (Soph-Senior on this years team) she had 3 leave the program. The two most notable Slocum-#5 and Staiti-#16 which is maybe why it seems like more.

 

[WNBA 09]

I did include Brenda, and while I too initially thought the same thing, of the 9 recruits she signed from '15-17 (Soph-Senior on this years team) she had 3 leave the program. The two most notable Slocum-#5 and Staiti-#16 which is maybe why it seems like more.

Leslie NCST and Gillespie FSU where they before 2015? That makes 4 with Stati and Slocum

 

[TheFarmFan]

I am a huge baseball/sabermetrics guy, so while I laud your support, the numbers say otherwise. Large recruiting classes do not stay for 4 years-unless you go to Stanford! I will be glad to wager that this 2019 class will not graduate with all 5 having played 4 years at SC.

Actually, same for Stanford - our last 5-recruit class saw Lili Thompson sit out her senior season and then grad transfer to ND, and Kailee Johnson quit basketball entirely her senior year. True they didn't transfer from Stanford (really, who would give up that degree?), but they didn't stay with the team for four years.