Realistic Season Expectations? What Metrics Define Success

[ManFromOZ]

After the seemingly endless dumpster fire over the past decade, is there a bonafide reason for seeing the glass half full. Mora brings some level of excitement but it is a steep mountain to climb. Not getting to the summit with CT High School players - that's for sure. No offense to Daniel Hand. The QB situation is like a box of chocolates. No true playmakers. It is a lot of unknowns baked with what if's. What qualifies as a good season? Not getting doors blown in. 2-3 wins. What metrics define a successful season?

 

[Sportsman5]

After the seemingly endless dumpster fire over the past decade, is there a bonafide reason for seeing the glass half full. Mora brings some level of excitement but it is a steep mountain to climb. Not getting to the summit with CT High School players - that's for sure. No offense to Daniel Hand. The QB situation is like a box of chocolates. No true playmakers. It is a lot of unknowns baked with what if's. What qualifies as a good season? Not getting doors blown in. 2-3 wins. What metrics define a successful season?

break the season into 2 parts. First half and second half. First half will have some struggles with units like the Oline because that takes time to come together as a unit. There's a good chance the team is 1-5 or 2-4 to start the year based on the schedule, but I think they could go 3-3 or better in the second half of the season based on the competition and having time to gel as a team with a lot of new faces in key spots. I think 3-5 wins is the range that's most realistic, but a strong finish to the season could result in 6 if a few players at key positions end up panning out. The team is not going to win 5+ unless a quarterback emerges as a key contributor and the o-line can block for them. The defense will be much improved with some new faces and better morale.

 

[uconndogs]

NC or we need to fire Mora.

 

[Palatine]

Beat Utah State.

 

[Buffett10]

Allow less than 35 pts a game

 

[phillionaire]

I don't hate myself for spending 3+ hours of my free time watching them play

 

[LIUCHusky]

Beat Utah State.

You do realize Utah State beat 2 PAC 10 teams last year.

 

[Husky68]

Not having my wife say "you never learn".

 

[FfldCntyFan]

My metrics will entirely be based on the eye test, not wins/losses, margins of victories/defeats etc.

By the time October ends I absolutely want some evidence that we are building a team that with a few recruiting classes will be able to compete at a level equal to where we were at our best (2007-2010). This is far more important to me than whether we can squeeze out 3 wins, 5 wins, whatever.

 

[businesslawyer]

My metrics will entirely be based on the eye test, not wins/losses, margins of victories/defeats etc.

By the time October ends I absolutely want some evidence that we are building a team that with a few recruiting classes will be able to compete at a level equal to where we were at our best (2007-2010). This is far more important to me than whether we can squeeze out 3 wins, 5 wins, whatever.

Winner winner chicken dinner. We've been so bad, for so long, that using wins as the measuring stick for next season is unrealistic. Because an awful season from a win-loss perspective might still be very positive in terms of moving forward.

You're just going to have to watch and determine for yourself. But anyone who thinks that removing HCRE makes us anywhere near competitive against the programs that we consider our peers is nuts. Even if we have a home run hire, it will take time (and just like we could go 2-10 and be moving forward, it may be that squeaking out, say, 5 wins, while great, is just a mirage, as it was when Fiasco had his 6-6 season).

 

[UC1995]

I honestly have no idea what this team is yet. I think we are better across the board. Better coaching staff and upgrade in talent, but we have no culture of winning and that comes with time. We don't have the depth right now we need to fill gaps if people get injured. So many question marks so I am going to hedge my bet for now.

 

[Palatine]

You do realize Utah State beat 2 PAC 10 teams last year.

In college every year is a new year. Past performance is not a gaurantee of future results.

Aggies will use 2022 recruiting class to replace stellar group of departing seniors

Second-year coach Blake Anderson has holes to fill heading into signing day on Wednesday

www.deseret.com

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Winner winner chicken dinner. We've been so bad, for so long, that using wins as the measuring stick for next season is unrealistic. Because an awful season from a win-loss perspective might still be very positive in terms of moving forward.

You're just going to have to watch and determine for yourself. But anyone who thinks that removing HCRE makes us anywhere near competitive against the programs that we consider our peers is nuts. Even if we have a home run hire, it will take time (and just like we could go 2-10 and be moving forward, it may be that squeaking out, say, 5 wins, while great, is just a mirage, as it was when Fiasco had his 6-6 season).

Removing HCRE was the best thing the BOT ever did, and I’m sure Maryland fans applauded the move as well.

 

[pepband99]

Winner winner chicken dinner. We've been so bad, for so long, that using wins as the measuring stick for next season is unrealistic. Because an awful season from a win-loss perspective might still be very positive in terms of moving forward.

You're just going to have to watch and determine for yourself. But anyone who thinks that removing HCRE makes us anywhere near competitive against the programs that we consider our peers is nuts. Even if we have a home run hire, it will take time (and just like we could go 2-10 and be moving forward, it may be that squeaking out, say, 5 wins, while great, is just a mirage, as it was when Fiasco had his 6-6 season).

Maybe.

The rational side of me agrees with you.

Mid-August me will probably hope for the 2nd version of June Jones at Hawaii:

Hawai'i, 1999​

4 OF 10

1. In 1998, the Rainbow Warriors finished 0-12 for the first time in program history, and Hawai'i fired coach Fred von Appen as the season's conclusion.
   The Rainbow Warriors then made of the greatest moves in their history by hiring June Jones as the new head coach for the 1999 season.
   Jones guided Hawai'i to a 9-4 record in his first season, capturing a share of the WAC championship, and topping Oregon State in the O'ahu Bowl.
   Going from zero wins to a conference championship and bowl victory easily places Hawai'i on the list.

 

[businesslawyer]

Maybe.

The rational side of me agrees with you.

Mid-August me will probably hope for the 2nd version of June Jones at Hawaii:

Anyone who thinks that the former staff was sitting on a 7-5 roster and nothing but coaching incompetence explained last season will be disappointed this year. I hope I’m dead wrong, but that’s not where the smart money is.

 

[businesslawyer]

Removing HCRE was the best thing the BOT ever did, and I’m sure Maryland fans applauded the move as well.

Gotta love these “have to badmouth former coach” posts. Did I say that getting rid of HCRE wasn’t a good thing? I was the one the day after opening day last year who said his era was over and it was just a matter of time. But you really can’t discuss how deep our hole is and what it means for the future without just trashing the guys who’se gone? Wonderful

 

[Blades]

break the season into 2 parts. First half and second half. First half will have some struggles with units like the Oline because that takes time to come together as a unit. There's a good chance the team is 1-5 or 2-4 to start the year based on the schedule

Yeah, I hope the first half doesn't scare away new fans or those who might make the jump back, if the L's start pilling up. The new energy around the program/ Mora seems good but it's still a real tough 1st half schedule. 1-5 is completely realistic based on opponents and last years records. I'd just like to see a competent looking offense who can extend drives with more 3 and outs on D.

Aug 27, at Utah St................(11-3)
Sept 3, CCSU.........................(4-7)
Sept 10, Syracuse.................(5-7)
Sept 17, at Michigan ...........(12-2)
Sept 24, at NC St...................(9-3)
Oct 1, Fresno St......................(10-3)
Oct 8, at FIU..........................(1-11)
Oct 15, at Ball St.....................(6-7)
Oct 29, Boston College............(6-6)
Nov 5, UMASS.......................(1-11)
Nov 12th, Liberty....................(8-5)
Nov 19, at Army.....................(9-4)

 

[uconndogs]

1st half schedule. 1-5 is completely realistic

It's not only realistic it's what should fully be expected. Mora will have done a fine job this season winning 3-4 games and staying competitive into the second half in most games. Michigan, NC State and BC could get really out of hand.

He will need to hold the locker room together for the first half of the season.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Gotta love these “have to badmouth former coach” posts. Did I say that getting rid of HCRE wasn’t a good thing? I was the one the day after opening day last year who said his era was over and it was just a matter of time. But you really can’t discuss how deep our hole is and what it means for the future without just trashing the guys who’se gone? Wonderful

Running players and coaches off the team, as intransigent as a tree, never had the personality a good recruiter must have. He did have a couple good qualities but lacked many that a coach needs. Mr Mason you need to look up the difference between honest criticism and trashing.

 

[UConnRock]

Realistic expectation......1 win between Utah St and Syracuse. Play decent games against NC St. and Fresno St. By decent I mean a meaningful 2nd half and maybe a chance to pull off an upset. 4 wins in the final 6 games. Don't care where the wins come from, but have something to aid in recruiting and a building block for next year.

 

[gtcam]

Visible improvement on both sides of the ball and something UConn football fans haven't seen in many years - a competent game day coaching staff
Win one game they aren't supposed to and win the low hanging fruit

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

Realistic expectation......1 win between Utah St and Syracuse. Play decent games against NC St. and Fresno St. By decent I mean a meaningful 2nd half and maybe a chance to pull off an upset. 4 wins in the final 6 games. Don't care where the wins come from, but have something to aid in recruiting and a building block for next year.

I would say that's optimistic....not realistic. Winning at Utah St is very very unlikely. Syracuse win is unlikely.

3-4 wins overall seems realistic...if not a bit optimistic. But....like others...even if it doesn't show up in the win column this year, I just want to see progress.

 

[kemba]

I’m hoping for a fairly big jump offensively. We got good wr’s, and some definite promise at rb. And all the qbs we brought in plus what we have coming back if healthy have athleticism and talent. The line is nowhere near where it needs to be but hopefully the qb play can cover up some of that. We’re going to be playing an inexperienced qb and probably have to deal with a lot of mistakes too but I want to see a big jump in moving the ball and by the end of the year feeling like we’re some help on the o-line and another year of development by the qbs away from having an offense that can win a lot of games.

Defense I’d expect improvement to be more incremental and be a little further away from a big jump unfortunately. Just want us to be better than we’ve been and get some good news recruiting

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Gotta love these “have to badmouth former coach” posts. Did I say that getting rid of HCRE wasn’t a good thing? I was the one the day after opening day last year who said his era was over and it was just a matter of time. But you really can’t discuss how deep our hole is and what it means for the future without just trashing the guys who’se gone? Wonderful

I was a big time Edsall apologista during v1.0 and I was very excited and hopeful when he returned for v2.0. I absolutely don't think we were sitting on a 7-5 roster, but there is no doubt in my mind Mora will improve the team even in year 1 and I am typically considered a "negative" fan because I haven't predicted a bowl game every season the last decade.

 

[SubbaBub]

There are 5 "must wins"- games that a competent FBS team with full scholarships should win.
CCSU, FIU, Ball State, UMass, Army.

Then there are 4 "might wins" games this team could steal if everything goes right.
Utah State, Cuse, BC, Liberty

Then there are 3 no chance beatdowns, Michigan, Fresno State and NC State.

Success is measured by how many we win from Group 1 and if we can steal one win from Group 2.

Your opinion of the relative opponent strength is not the point so don't bother.