- Joined
- Mar 30, 2012
- Messages
- 1,876
- Reaction Score
- 8,191
Watching this board for the last several months, I have a hard time not worrying about where Uconn ends up when the whole thing finally ends. I can't decide if I am in the camp that thinks the B1G is an absurd pipe-dream or the camp that believes it is realistic and possible. I've decided to add some thoughts on that matter (re-hashed, I know), but I think we all need to take a step back and think about this logically and take the anger and emotion we all have on this topic and think about what has happened and why. Then we can decide where we believe it all goes... (warning: this post is going to be long)
Only two motives for expansion really exist. The "panic/save ourseleves" additions (BE: well...every addition it seems, ACC: Louisville), and the "Game of Risk" model, expanding markets, footprints, revenues (SEC, Pac-12, B1G). The second is done with reason and thought, and the other is done by desperation and fear.
There are four scenarios for Uconn that could happen. 1) invite to ACC, 2) invite to B1G 3) C7/MWC monstrosity (its like we never learned how this kind of thing works out) 4) left in the cold with NNNNNNNNNNNNBE/C-USA/SB/MAC refuse pile.
As much as we panic, it really is hard to imagine that the final two options are how it plays out for Uconn. Uconn is the flagship university of one of the wealthiest states in the US. It is situated between Boston and NYC, and is covered and followed (maybe not religiously, but hey, BC is an afterthought its own city). It has a good media market. It is an academic and cultural fit in the ACC already, and with the increased investment into both the athletic department and academic/research side it is closer than we think to a fit for the B1G. AAU status appears to be on the horizon, and if schools such as Kansas, Stony Brook (seriously), and Iowa State are in the AAU, how prestigious and hard to achieve can it really be?
The Carolina schools bristled at having to swallow hard and add Louiville to placate the football schools. UNC, Duke, UVA, and Wake cannot be happy to be sharing a conference with a lousy commuter school. No conference is more arrogant about their academic prestige than the ACC. No question, it is embarrassing to them to now be stuck with Louisville (regardless of the pros that they do bring to the table). This is why I believe that Cincy and USF are non-starters for the ACC. They went slumming once, I doubt they want to do it again. Also, neither of those schools has the pull in their states that Uconn has here. The quality of the football programs is not so vast that one school is favored over the other overwhelmingly. Neither of those schools is academically anything to be proud of, and Uconn is fast-rising, having eclipsed both Cuse and Pitt in the last few years. Uconn is next in line for them. Every school in the conference is involved in rumors to be poached, most strongly FSU, VT, Clem, GT (football first). Should one of those schools in fact leave, the pressure to assuage the football schools will not be strong like it was this last go-around.
I do in fact think the B1G is a real possibility. It may be pie in the sky, but it isnt inconcieveable. Uconn fits the profile more now than ever. The B1G only moves when there is a tangible benefit. Adding Nebraska increased the quality of the B1G network inventory. Neb vs. OSU/Mich/PSU/Wisc/Iowa was a brilliant move for the B1G. This overrides their lesser qualities (atrocious bball, small market, imperfect academic fit). Nebraska has national appeal, and was a brilliant move for the conference. Maryland and Rutgers have middling athletic programs, but add These two additions added roughly 21 million potential television sets to the fold (http://www.arbitron.com/home/mm001050.asp) in the DC, NYC, Baltimore, (Atlantic City (included bc it is in NJ). The number is even higher than that, if you can add Long Island, Hudson Valley, Poughkipsee and other markets into the equation.
The B1G moves logically, and does not have a need to move for any reason other than to complete their game of risk. They have acquired two massive markets and now it behooves them to protect them. Adding UVA is a logical step. It adds an elite flagship to the conference, and protects DC. NYC is trickier. If PSU didn't capture NYC for the B1G network with its history and longevity, then how does an afterthought for most of its existence (Rutgers) accomplish this? It doesn't and cannot by itself. Therefore, there are only three possibilities to do this. Cuse, Uconn, ND. Cuse is in the ACC, and doesn't appeal outside of Northern NY, ND is loath to join a conference and is rumored to prefer the ACC anyway. This leaves Uconn as the only easy add to accomplish this goal. This is not to say that Cuse and ND are not possible, and clearly the B1G prefers ND to anyone, but if that is not possible then only Uconn and Cuse are in play to do this. Uconn has eclipsed Cuse academically, is moving toward AAU, and has more pull in Boston as a bonus. Uconn can concievably reach into Mass and RI, which Cuse simply cannot.
The B1G currently sits at 14 members. If they choose to expand to 16, then Uconn is in play. They are behind UVA and UNC, possibly FSU and GT. However, both FSU and GT sit deep in SEC country, and with the passion for the SEC that exists in the south, a Nothern Conference "invading" their turf just doesn't seem like it is feasible, or will work out. Delany moved three times, all of them into territory where they are likely to take and control the market. They will never control any market that resides in SEC country. It simply isn't going to happen. Especially not with the arrogance of SEC fans, who sincerely believe that the best football is their birthright, and anything else is a joke.
But, the Northeast is up for grabs. The B1G knows that Uconn is the powerful draw in this state, and BC is a lone, pathetic outpost on the fringe. Uconn has much more athletic potential long-term and is a better option for consolidating NYC. Uconn to the B1G is not crazy. It is doubtfully the B1G's first choice. If the B1G can get UVA and UNC then they take them, but if they choose 18 or even 20, Uconn is probably in the mix.
When it boils down to it, it really doesn't seem we will be left out in MAC/C-USA hell, but if the ACC comes calling it will be better, but not the best. Uconn is going to be ok in the end, but it just really sucks today.
Only two motives for expansion really exist. The "panic/save ourseleves" additions (BE: well...every addition it seems, ACC: Louisville), and the "Game of Risk" model, expanding markets, footprints, revenues (SEC, Pac-12, B1G). The second is done with reason and thought, and the other is done by desperation and fear.
There are four scenarios for Uconn that could happen. 1) invite to ACC, 2) invite to B1G 3) C7/MWC monstrosity (its like we never learned how this kind of thing works out) 4) left in the cold with NNNNNNNNNNNNBE/C-USA/SB/MAC refuse pile.
As much as we panic, it really is hard to imagine that the final two options are how it plays out for Uconn. Uconn is the flagship university of one of the wealthiest states in the US. It is situated between Boston and NYC, and is covered and followed (maybe not religiously, but hey, BC is an afterthought its own city). It has a good media market. It is an academic and cultural fit in the ACC already, and with the increased investment into both the athletic department and academic/research side it is closer than we think to a fit for the B1G. AAU status appears to be on the horizon, and if schools such as Kansas, Stony Brook (seriously), and Iowa State are in the AAU, how prestigious and hard to achieve can it really be?
The Carolina schools bristled at having to swallow hard and add Louiville to placate the football schools. UNC, Duke, UVA, and Wake cannot be happy to be sharing a conference with a lousy commuter school. No conference is more arrogant about their academic prestige than the ACC. No question, it is embarrassing to them to now be stuck with Louisville (regardless of the pros that they do bring to the table). This is why I believe that Cincy and USF are non-starters for the ACC. They went slumming once, I doubt they want to do it again. Also, neither of those schools has the pull in their states that Uconn has here. The quality of the football programs is not so vast that one school is favored over the other overwhelmingly. Neither of those schools is academically anything to be proud of, and Uconn is fast-rising, having eclipsed both Cuse and Pitt in the last few years. Uconn is next in line for them. Every school in the conference is involved in rumors to be poached, most strongly FSU, VT, Clem, GT (football first). Should one of those schools in fact leave, the pressure to assuage the football schools will not be strong like it was this last go-around.
I do in fact think the B1G is a real possibility. It may be pie in the sky, but it isnt inconcieveable. Uconn fits the profile more now than ever. The B1G only moves when there is a tangible benefit. Adding Nebraska increased the quality of the B1G network inventory. Neb vs. OSU/Mich/PSU/Wisc/Iowa was a brilliant move for the B1G. This overrides their lesser qualities (atrocious bball, small market, imperfect academic fit). Nebraska has national appeal, and was a brilliant move for the conference. Maryland and Rutgers have middling athletic programs, but add These two additions added roughly 21 million potential television sets to the fold (http://www.arbitron.com/home/mm001050.asp) in the DC, NYC, Baltimore, (Atlantic City (included bc it is in NJ). The number is even higher than that, if you can add Long Island, Hudson Valley, Poughkipsee and other markets into the equation.
The B1G moves logically, and does not have a need to move for any reason other than to complete their game of risk. They have acquired two massive markets and now it behooves them to protect them. Adding UVA is a logical step. It adds an elite flagship to the conference, and protects DC. NYC is trickier. If PSU didn't capture NYC for the B1G network with its history and longevity, then how does an afterthought for most of its existence (Rutgers) accomplish this? It doesn't and cannot by itself. Therefore, there are only three possibilities to do this. Cuse, Uconn, ND. Cuse is in the ACC, and doesn't appeal outside of Northern NY, ND is loath to join a conference and is rumored to prefer the ACC anyway. This leaves Uconn as the only easy add to accomplish this goal. This is not to say that Cuse and ND are not possible, and clearly the B1G prefers ND to anyone, but if that is not possible then only Uconn and Cuse are in play to do this. Uconn has eclipsed Cuse academically, is moving toward AAU, and has more pull in Boston as a bonus. Uconn can concievably reach into Mass and RI, which Cuse simply cannot.
The B1G currently sits at 14 members. If they choose to expand to 16, then Uconn is in play. They are behind UVA and UNC, possibly FSU and GT. However, both FSU and GT sit deep in SEC country, and with the passion for the SEC that exists in the south, a Nothern Conference "invading" their turf just doesn't seem like it is feasible, or will work out. Delany moved three times, all of them into territory where they are likely to take and control the market. They will never control any market that resides in SEC country. It simply isn't going to happen. Especially not with the arrogance of SEC fans, who sincerely believe that the best football is their birthright, and anything else is a joke.
But, the Northeast is up for grabs. The B1G knows that Uconn is the powerful draw in this state, and BC is a lone, pathetic outpost on the fringe. Uconn has much more athletic potential long-term and is a better option for consolidating NYC. Uconn to the B1G is not crazy. It is doubtfully the B1G's first choice. If the B1G can get UVA and UNC then they take them, but if they choose 18 or even 20, Uconn is probably in the mix.
When it boils down to it, it really doesn't seem we will be left out in MAC/C-USA hell, but if the ACC comes calling it will be better, but not the best. Uconn is going to be ok in the end, but it just really sucks today.