Re-alignment is far from over

[Durks07]

Watching this board for the last several months, I have a hard time not worrying about where Uconn ends up when the whole thing finally ends. I can't decide if I am in the camp that thinks the B1G is an absurd pipe-dream or the camp that believes it is realistic and possible. I've decided to add some thoughts on that matter (re-hashed, I know), but I think we all need to take a step back and think about this logically and take the anger and emotion we all have on this topic and think about what has happened and why. Then we can decide where we believe it all goes... (warning: this post is going to be long)

Only two motives for expansion really exist. The "panic/save ourseleves" additions (BE: well...every addition it seems, ACC: Louisville), and the "Game of Risk" model, expanding markets, footprints, revenues (SEC, Pac-12, B1G). The second is done with reason and thought, and the other is done by desperation and fear.

There are four scenarios for Uconn that could happen. 1) invite to ACC, 2) invite to B1G 3) C7/MWC monstrosity (its like we never learned how this kind of thing works out) 4) left in the cold with NNNNNNNNNNNNBE/C-USA/SB/MAC refuse pile.

As much as we panic, it really is hard to imagine that the final two options are how it plays out for Uconn. Uconn is the flagship university of one of the wealthiest states in the US. It is situated between Boston and NYC, and is covered and followed (maybe not religiously, but hey, BC is an afterthought its own city). It has a good media market. It is an academic and cultural fit in the ACC already, and with the increased investment into both the athletic department and academic/research side it is closer than we think to a fit for the B1G. AAU status appears to be on the horizon, and if schools such as Kansas, Stony Brook (seriously), and Iowa State are in the AAU, how prestigious and hard to achieve can it really be?

The Carolina schools bristled at having to swallow hard and add Louiville to placate the football schools. UNC, Duke, UVA, and Wake cannot be happy to be sharing a conference with a lousy commuter school. No conference is more arrogant about their academic prestige than the ACC. No question, it is embarrassing to them to now be stuck with Louisville (regardless of the pros that they do bring to the table). This is why I believe that Cincy and USF are non-starters for the ACC. They went slumming once, I doubt they want to do it again. Also, neither of those schools has the pull in their states that Uconn has here. The quality of the football programs is not so vast that one school is favored over the other overwhelmingly. Neither of those schools is academically anything to be proud of, and Uconn is fast-rising, having eclipsed both Cuse and Pitt in the last few years. Uconn is next in line for them. Every school in the conference is involved in rumors to be poached, most strongly FSU, VT, Clem, GT (football first). Should one of those schools in fact leave, the pressure to assuage the football schools will not be strong like it was this last go-around.

I do in fact think the B1G is a real possibility. It may be pie in the sky, but it isnt inconcieveable. Uconn fits the profile more now than ever. The B1G only moves when there is a tangible benefit. Adding Nebraska increased the quality of the B1G network inventory. Neb vs. OSU/Mich/PSU/Wisc/Iowa was a brilliant move for the B1G. This overrides their lesser qualities (atrocious bball, small market, imperfect academic fit). Nebraska has national appeal, and was a brilliant move for the conference. Maryland and Rutgers have middling athletic programs, but add These two additions added roughly 21 million potential television sets to the fold (http://www.arbitron.com/home/mm001050.asp) in the DC, NYC, Baltimore, (Atlantic City (included bc it is in NJ). The number is even higher than that, if you can add Long Island, Hudson Valley, Poughkipsee and other markets into the equation.
The B1G moves logically, and does not have a need to move for any reason other than to complete their game of risk. They have acquired two massive markets and now it behooves them to protect them. Adding UVA is a logical step. It adds an elite flagship to the conference, and protects DC. NYC is trickier. If PSU didn't capture NYC for the B1G network with its history and longevity, then how does an afterthought for most of its existence (Rutgers) accomplish this? It doesn't and cannot by itself. Therefore, there are only three possibilities to do this. Cuse, Uconn, ND. Cuse is in the ACC, and doesn't appeal outside of Northern NY, ND is loath to join a conference and is rumored to prefer the ACC anyway. This leaves Uconn as the only easy add to accomplish this goal. This is not to say that Cuse and ND are not possible, and clearly the B1G prefers ND to anyone, but if that is not possible then only Uconn and Cuse are in play to do this. Uconn has eclipsed Cuse academically, is moving toward AAU, and has more pull in Boston as a bonus. Uconn can concievably reach into Mass and RI, which Cuse simply cannot.

The B1G currently sits at 14 members. If they choose to expand to 16, then Uconn is in play. They are behind UVA and UNC, possibly FSU and GT. However, both FSU and GT sit deep in SEC country, and with the passion for the SEC that exists in the south, a Nothern Conference "invading" their turf just doesn't seem like it is feasible, or will work out. Delany moved three times, all of them into territory where they are likely to take and control the market. They will never control any market that resides in SEC country. It simply isn't going to happen. Especially not with the arrogance of SEC fans, who sincerely believe that the best football is their birthright, and anything else is a joke.

But, the Northeast is up for grabs. The B1G knows that Uconn is the powerful draw in this state, and BC is a lone, pathetic outpost on the fringe. Uconn has much more athletic potential long-term and is a better option for consolidating NYC. Uconn to the B1G is not crazy. It is doubtfully the B1G's first choice. If the B1G can get UVA and UNC then they take them, but if they choose 18 or even 20, Uconn is probably in the mix.

When it boils down to it, it really doesn't seem we will be left out in MAC/C-USA hell, but if the ACC comes calling it will be better, but not the best. Uconn is going to be ok in the end, but it just really sucks today.

 

[Adios]

When it boils down to it, it really doesn't seem we will be left out in MAC/C-USA hell, but if the ACC comes calling it will be better, but not the best. Uconn is going to be ok in the end, but it just really sucks today.

Why do people complain so much? We have three national titles in men's basketball. How many fanbases are still waiting for 3 championships in either football or basketball, even women's basketball? How many fanbases loyally suffered with their athletic departments in subpar athletic conferences? ECU gets crowds of 50,000 in the ****ing C-USA. Some of the schools that are joining the Big East have suffered for DECADES (Houston and SMU used to be in the same conference as Texas) and we have fans going ****ing apesh*t over just entering a somewhat subpar conference and we put them down? At least their fans don't ****ing whine endlessly. We're new to FBS level. It takes patience. It is ****ing mindblowing how our fanbase has barely any gratitude for the championships we have so far.

 

[Durks07]

Why do people complain so much? We have three national titles in men's basketball. How many fanbases are still waiting for 3 championships in either football or basketball, even women's basketball? How many fanbases loyally suffered with their athletic departments in subpar athletic conferences? ECU gets crowds of 50,000 in the ****ing C-USA. Some of the schools that are joining the Big East have suffered for DECADES (Houston and SMU used to be in the same conference as Texas) and we have fans going ****ing apesh*t over just entering a somewhat subpar conference and we put them down? At least their fans don't ****ing whine endlessly. We're new to FBS level. It takes patience. It is ****ing mindblowing how our fanbase has barely any gratitude for the championships we have so far.

I'm curious to see where in the post I articulated or even hinted at a "lack of gratitude" for the national championships. It isn't there in any form, so I'm not sure what this rant is about. It sucks today because we are unsure of the future of our school which we love, want to see succeed, and continue to do so at the highest level. There is fear and uncertainty, because it does feel like we can be left out in the cold, and that reduces the potential of Uconn to maintain its relevance and success. Houston used to be a basketball power once upon a time. What happened to that?

Any fan who is ok with that being a chapter in the history of Uconn athletics aggravates me more than those who are angry and want Uconn to maintain the place it fought for during the Calhoun years. The desire for continued success, and the dissatisfaction over the possibilty of that ending shows more appreciation for the national championships and the work it took to get there than "well it was fun, guess we get to play in a lousy conference now."

We got to where we are by growing in a cauldron of exceptional competition and rising up within it. The quality of play and exposure helped make us what we are. Kent State's basketball program isn't ever going to duplicate that in the MAC. Invariably, with a lower quality of opponents and less exposure that comes with it, top recruits are going to choose other schools rather than play for Uconn. If seeing the best players come here and perform at the highest levels is not something we strive for, then we really are a mid-major in quality and spirit.

 

[Adios]

I'm curious to see where in the post I articulated or even hinted at a "lack of gratitude" for the national championships. It isn't there in any form, so I'm not sure what this rant is about. It sucks today because we are unsure of the future of our school which we love, want to see succeed, and continue to do so at the highest level. There is fear and uncertainty, because it does feel like we can be left out in the cold, and that reduces the potential of Uconn to maintain its relevance and success. Houston used to be a basketball power once upon a time. What happened to that?

Any fan who is ok with that being a chapter in the history of Uconn athletics aggravates me more than those who are angry and want Uconn to maintain the place it fought for during the Calhoun years. The desire for continued success, and the dissatisfaction over the possibilty of that ending shows more appreciation for the national championships and the work it took to get there than "well it was fun, guess we get to play in a lousy conference now."

We got to where we are by growing in a cauldron of exceptional competition and rising up within it. The quality of play and exposure helped make us what we are. Kent State's basketball program isn't ever going to duplicate that in the MAC. Invariably, with a lower quality of opponents and less exposure that comes with it, top recruits are going to choose other schools rather than play for Uconn. If seeing the best players come here and perform at the highest levels is not something we strive for, then we really are a mid-major in quality and spirit.

I was just speaking in general.

Let me ask you. In battles, do soldiers whine, get sick of what they have to deal with, complain, etc, or do they keep themselves composed and push forth?

 

[Durks07]

I was just speaking in general.

Let me ask you. In battles, do soldiers whine, get sick of what they have to deal with, complain, etc, or do they keep themselves composed and push forth?

Don't soldiers have extensive training to keep calm in pressure situations?

 

[Adios]

Don't soldiers have extensive training to keep calm in pressure situations?

They don't always need training. It's all in the mind.

 

[Durks07]

They don't always need training. It's all in the mind.

I find it hard to imagine that soldiers never complain about what they have to deal with

 

[Adios]

I find it hard to imagine that soldiers never complain about what they have to deal with

Some may but not all do. Regardless, they still push forth. Unless they give up and let themselves die.

 

[Durks07]

Some may but not all do. Regardless, they still push forth. Unless they give up and let themselves die.

then we push forward towards the B1G or ACC

 

[Adios]

then we push forward towards the B1G or ACC

If the ACC is a dead man walking, metaphorically speaking, then the B1G. Very few athletic departments with FBS-level football programs have hockey programs.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

ECU gets crowds of 50,000 in the ****ing C-USA.

ECU gets crowds of 50K because there is literally nothing else to do there. What else is there to do in Eastern Carolina? In CT you have eleventy bajillion pro teams you could go see instead on a Saturday, you could go to the casinos, you could go spend the day in NYC or Boston, you could go to Six Flags, and that's just to name a few. There is NOTHING in that part of the state. Virtually no pro team to root for, no other college, very low population, it's basically go to the outer banks and drink/boat, or go watch ECU football. Also, the reason no one's ever scooped them up or even remotely thought about it is because while the program has performed decently well, and they get decent crowds, outside of the people who come to the games, they have few other fans. Drive around Raleigh, the closest big city, and you see virtually no sign of ECU's existence.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

If the ACC is a dead man walking, metaphorically speaking, then the B1G. Very few athletic departments with FBS-level football programs have hockey programs.

Unfortunately, outside of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, hockey is irrelevant to the schools in the B1G. And those four are powerhouse teams, they're not licking their chops to throw multiple games a year against a middle to bottom of the barrel Atlantic Hockey team on their schedule. If UConn had the hockey prowess of a BU, BC, or UNH, it could be a minor player as hockey is a big pull at those four schools, but they're not going to fight hard for us because of hockey, it'd water down their league severely.

 

[Adios]

ECU gets crowds of 50K because there is literally nothing else to do there. What else is there to do in Eastern Carolina? In CT you have eleventy bajillion pro teams you could go see instead on a Saturday, you could go to the casinos, you could go spend the day in NYC or Boston, you could go to Six Flags, and that's just to name a few. There is NOTHING in that part of the state. Virtually no pro team to root for, no other college, very low population, it's basically go to the outer banks and drink/boat, or go watch ECU football. Also, the reason no one's ever scooped them up or even remotely thought about it is because while the program has performed decently well, and they get decent crowds, outside of the people who come to the games, they have few other fans. Drive around Raleigh, the closest big city, and you see virtually no sign of ECU's existence.

As I've mentioned before, at least one SEC administrator spoke highly of the University of Houston, to the extent of being considered as an expansion candidate. I am sure there's a bajillion options in Houston other than UH athletics.

 

[Adios]

Unfortunately, outside of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, hockey is irrelevant to the schools in the B1G. And those four are powerhouse teams, they're not licking their chops to throw multiple games a year against a middle to bottom of the barrel Atlantic Hockey team on their schedule. If UConn had the hockey prowess of a BU, BC, or UNH, it could be a minor player as hockey is a big pull at those four schools, but they're not going to fight hard for us because of hockey, it'd water down their league severely.

That's because that's all of the B1G schools there are that play hockey. With the exceptions of Ohio State and Penn State. They still decided to form their own hockey conference using their own schools. Certainly can't hurt to add another school. The B1G's brand name sells itself.

I hate to bring this up, but this well-connected person I had convos with certainly did not say UConn hockey was useless for them when I brought it up. Actually said it was a "good point".

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

As I've mentioned before, at least one SEC administrator spoke highly of the University of Houston, to the extent of being considered as an expansion candidate. I am sure there's a bajillion options in Houston other than UH athletics.

Sure, but I'm only referring to your point about ECU. Houston does not draw 50K per game.

As for your hockey point, sure, it can help, but again, my point is, those four schools (PSU and OSU are non-factors in this discussion, they don't care about hockey and aren't good enough) are simply not looking to water down their league with UConn. Their mentality is more in the "if it happens, so be it," family. Honestly, if hockey were a player in this decision, we would be passed over for BC in a hearbeat, and our program is decades from being near the same level as BC. So in that respect, we kind of need to hope that hockey ISN'T a player in the decision. Those four schools would absolutely love to poach BC from HE and gain the clear status as the top conference in the nation. And let's not forget there's another school located smack dab in the middle of B1G country who just opened a brand spankin new hockey arena and has a relatively new but accomplished hockey program. Word is they're good at football too. We'd better hope that they're not evaluating based on hockey.

 

[Durks07]

As I've mentioned before, at least one SEC administrator spoke highly of the University of Houston, to the extent of being considered as an expansion candidate. I am sure there's a bajillion options in Houston other than UH athletics.

I have a hard time buying them as an actual option. Their programs are not on par with the SEC. To compete they will have to attract high-level prospects, and it is hard to see them winning recruiting battles with Bama, LSU, Texas, A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma. I can't say for sure that I know the statistics, but they may "add" Houston to the footprint, but that is moot if A&M already does this. The B1G isn't looking at Pitt because PSU covers that region anyway, even though PSU is not in Western PA. If Houston already gets the SEC on basic coverage that way, then the point is moot. I just don't see that this is realistic.

The other options for the SEC are much more valuable. VT gets them a power program in VA, UNC provides a flagship university in NC. Duke has a national following in basketball and is valuable. NC State is the lesser option they would take if those others did not pan out. It just doesn't seem that Houston is viable when other options are available in markets they are not already in.

 

[Adios]

The only way I can see the ACC surviving is ND joining as an all-sports member. They would be wise to do that before other conferences poach the ACC.

 

[Adios]

I have a hard time buying them as an actual option. Their programs are not on par with the SEC. To compete they will have to attract high-level prospects, and it is hard to see them winning recruiting battles with Bama, LSU, Texas, A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma. I can't say for sure that I know the statistics, but they may "add" Houston to the footprint, but that is moot if A&M already does this. The B1G isn't looking at Pitt because PSU covers that region anyway, even though PSU is not in Western PA. If Houston already gets the SEC on basic coverage that way, then the point is moot. I just don't see that this is realistic.

The other options for the SEC are much more valuable. VT gets them a power program in VA, UNC provides a flagship university in NC. Duke has a national following in basketball and is valuable. NC State is the lesser option they would take if those others did not pan out. It just doesn't seem that Houston is viable when other options are available in markets they are not already in.

I am just parroting what was said. It's not my opinion.

 

[Adios]

Sure, but I'm only referring to your point about ECU. Houston does not draw 50K per game.

One more thing, then I bow out of this for the day. Pitt does draw close to 50K. And they are in an NFL city. But of course, Pitt football was successful decades before the Steelers ever had any real success.

 

[Durks07]

The only way I can see the ACC surviving is ND joining as an all-sports member. They would be wise to do that before other conferences poach the ACC.

I honestly hope that this happens. It eliminates ND as a B1G option, provides a football brand to satisfy the football schools and creates a need to expand to 16. In this scenario, the ACC is a great option for Uconn.

In the alternative, then the B1G is out of luck, removes the ACC schools as realistic adds, and makes them look further for candidates. Uconn is going to be high on the list in that situation.

The rumored targets are UVA, UNC, GT, Kansas, Uconn, Texas, Miami, FSU, Cuse and BC. Take the ACC options away, Texas (not coming, GOR, Longhorn Network, a national brand on par with any other), Kansas (i don't understand this either), and Uconn remain. Uconn probably lands softly in a good conference if this occurs.

 

[zls44]

Pitt draws 50k?!?!?!?

 

[Adios]

Pitt draws 50k?!?!?!?

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2011/10/18/4-1-zoo-pitts-attendance-better-than-you-think/

It did seem to go down last year.

 

[specialisthusky]

I was just speaking in general.

Let me ask you. In battles, do soldiers whine, get sick of what they have to deal with, complain, etc, or do they keep themselves composed and push forth?

Mostly complain constantly while driving on

 

[RuffRuff]

Well thought out post - agree with you that you have to strip out the panic, disappointment, hope on steroids to muddle through the logic with sense. I continue to hold onto a smidgen for the BiG, not holding the breath. And if it were to happen, it's not happening soon - likely 5-6 years out. I continue to think it's a longshot and a lot of things would have to happen for Uconn to get that break, but I don't think it's null. They're a backup school, a wait and see filler, jury out.

ND sticks to it's guns to remain football independent and BiG realizes it's 100% not happening, keeps that slot open and offers no artificial/political value to BC(good chance)
Uconn makes AAU/builds positive FB momentum(new coach, a couple impressive wins, a couple of PR/marketing moves to open eyes)
ACC nucleus holds, (UNC, Duke and team) limiting BiG's ideal options, BiG 12 becomes weakling in all this(unlikely)
BiG long term target is 20 schools
BC continues to suck
NYC is as important a market to BiG as we'd all like to think and Rutgers shows it's value, but not enough to lay full stake

The one element that's difficult to guess is if the BiG is willing to make any hasty moves just to fill slots or would they play it out short of their ideal target # to wait see and for how long. How quick do they want to make this happen to get to their target number and are they willing to make a sacrifice or two to get there for the sake of time? One school of thought could be that, like a Rutgers, if the platform is there(infrastructure, buy in, market), joining the conference itself can build the program into something much bigger fairly quickly. All it takes is the right coach and a couple great recruiting classes. The BiG invitation itself will do wonders. You can bet that where Rutgers and Uconn are peers today, if all remains equal that in three years, Rutgers will be smoking Uconn on the gridiron. Although once you take in a school, hard to reverse. Schools leave, never get booted. So once you make that bed, it's made, it's a long term investment.

Best bet for the Conn - see enough moves made in the near term to get into the ACC, not so many that the ideal conferences lock up their target numbers. Once they're there, no point in posting on realignment forums. Get enough runway in the ACC with the best assortment of schools possible to build up the brand, see through AAU status. Hopefully there is some patience there on the BiG's part, maybe they go 16 and leave 20 out on the horizon. Worst case here is that we sit in a conference with some great hoops schools and old rivalries.

Next year is a transition/limbo year. It's a black hole in terms of Uconn sports, playing in a conference where everyone is due to leave. Not a black hole for the administration. It should be a planning year. PP must be punted, some positive things have to happen in the realignment saga and FB gets an exciting clean slate. I would be running a confidential search of possibilities on the coaching front now, I hope they are. Administration has to show some gusto, not only for realignment purposes, but to simply hold onto their fan base. A splash with a new coach, committment/investment, marketing/PR. I hope they're getting their ducks in a row on these points.

I have no problems with Herbst and her bland announcements because now is not the time Uconn makes it's moves. But I hope they're planning. They're one ACC pillage from a spot in that conference, in all likelihood. From there, they need to establish some identity/brand with the opportunity.

Still hard to see Big going any further south than NC - the cultural aspect cannot be overlooked. UNC seems like a stretch, but I suppose hard to overlook the growth there and number of northern immigrants. Anyone that's spent any time in the South realizes it's practically a different country. How you sell a northern product down there is beyond me. UVa, fine, close enough to the Mason Dixie and a bit of a hybrid state. UNC is land of Jimmy Graham and NASCAR - that is a southern state. Can't see the rednecks getting pumped about Wiskie coming to town other than hating them for their Yankee @sses.

 

[DW4UCONN]

I liked your post despite my short attention span. I think the B1G however is a pipe dream. I think the B1G took a big risk taking Rutgers and will stop going further East. Instead, they take UVA and UNC to the South and stop at 16. I hope your insight turns out better than mine.