Raymond Felton to Knicks

[UConn990411]

He will be an All-Star, but it won't be because he's good enough.

Best case is he's a starting caliber PG, but I don't see him ever being one of the 10 best at that position.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Lins ceiling is higher and yes he does have alot of potential, however giving him a big contract is risky. He can become an allstar pg and he could also be a guy who cant be a starting pg you dont know. Of course I would rather the knicks match the offer since they will be over the luxury tax anyways and 76 mill would come off the books in year 3.

I don't think Lin got a big contract. Lin got a contract that's market value. Houston's Dragic who was basically the backup got $8.5M per year. Lin got a little over $8M per year. People are focusing on his third year at $15M but to Lin it averages out to $8M per year which is basically the market value for where he is at right now. Dragic play a few more games and his numbers are somewhat similar. Lin's marketing impact is way bigger. Frankly, I think Houston got a steal comparing to what they were willing to pay for Dragic.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

He will be an All-Star, but it won't be because he's good enough.

Best case is he's a starting caliber PG, but I don't see him ever being one of the 10 best at that position.

I think you might be wrong in your assessment. We will find out soon enough. You might want to read this article:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47858/jeremy-lin-played-well

Lin is better than Felton in every measurable category. Knicks did not get better with Felton, they got worse. How much worse? We will find out soon.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/47791/felton-over-lin-are-the-knicks-lin-sane

From a pure basketball perspective, the numbers say yes, they are.

ISOLATION

Isolation Plays Last Season

​

Felton​

Lin​

Pts per play 0.74 1.02
PPP rank* 68th 3rd
FG pct 33.8 43.1
TO pct 15.5 6.5
* Of 91 players with at least 75 plays​

Isolation plays are where Lin excels. He scored the third most points per play of the 91 players with at least 75 isolation plays last season, trailing only Chris Paul and James Harden. Felton ranked 68th.

Felton turned the ball over on isolation plays more than twice as often as Lin, who committed just six turnovers on his 93 isolation plays. And only Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh and Harden got to the free throw line more often than Lin on isolation plays.

PICK-AND-ROLL

Pick-and-Roll Ball-Handler Plays
Last Season

​

Felton​

Lin​

Pts per play 0.70 0.80
PPP rank* 38th 26th
FG pct 40.3 43.5
Pct free throws 5.0 14.5
* Of 41 players with at least 200 plays​

Among the 41 players who were the ball-handler on at least 200 pick-and-roll plays last season, Felton scored the fourth-fewest points per play. Only John Wall, Rajon Rondo and Jamal Crawfordwere worse. Lin, who ranked 26th, got to the free throw line nearly three times as often as Felton on those plays.

JUMPERS OFF THE DRIBBLE

Despite shooting just 33 percent on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, Lin shot 48 percent on jumpers off the dribble.

Highest FG pct on Jumpers off the Dribble
Minimum 90 FGA Last Season

Stephen Curry 52.9
Steve Nash 48.5
Jeremy Lin 47.9
Gary Neal 46.6
Delonte West 46.2
Felton: 32.7 FG percentage
(85th of 102 players)​

Of the 102 players who attempted at least 90 jumpers off the dribble, only Stephen Curry andSteve Nash shot a higher field goal percentage than Lin. Felton ranked 85th of those 102 players, shooting just 33 percent.

PASSING

Felton and Lin both passed the ball on most of their pick-and-roll plays. And both players’ teammates had nearly the same field goal percentage and points per play on those passes. Felton passed it to the roll men more often, while Lin hit the cutters and spot-up shooters more often.

Felton passed the ball more often on isolation plays than Lin, who was better at passing to cutters, resulting in a higher field goal percentage and more points per play by his teammates on those passes. But with Lin’s high efficiency on isolation plays, it may not be such a bad thing that he passes the ball on only 17 percent of his isolation plays.

DEFENSE

Defense Last Season

​

Felton​

Lin​

Opp Pts per play 0.86 0.82
Opp PPP rank* 133rd 78th
Opp FG pct 41.6 37.8
* Of 235 players to defend at least 300 plays​

So if Lin seems to be the better offensive player, for the Knicks to justify this move, they must think Felton is the better defender, right? That may not be the case.

Lin held opponents to fewer points per play and a lower field goal percentage (37.8) last season than Felton (41.6). Of the 235 players to defend at least 300 plays, Lin ranked 78th in fewest points per play, while Felton ranked 133rd.

LIN BETTER OFF WITH KNICKS

Why is Lin better off with the Knicks than the Rockets?

Most Isolation Plays Last Season

​

​

Pct of offense​

Knicks 1,183 16.8*
Kings 1,107 15.2
Nets 984 14.3
Clippers 922 13.5
Thunder 914 13.0
* Highest in NBA
Rockets: 629 isolation plays (ranked 22nd)​

Isolation plays are Lin’s bread and butter. He’s among the best in the league. No team had more isolation plays last season than the Knicks. Isolation plays accounted for 17 percent of the Knicks' offense, the highest such percentage in the league.

The Rockets, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in isolation plays, which accounted for just 9 percent of their offense. The Knicks had nearly twice as many isolation plays as the Rockets.

CONCLUSION

Based on the above analysis using Synergy Sports Technology, it seems that Lin would be the better choice for the Knicks. And Lin might not thrive in Houston the way he would in New York.

 

[UConn990411]

I said Lin won't ever be a top 10 PG (which he most likely won't be). How does that disprove my assessment in any way?

 

[8893]

The "Synergy Sports Technology" analysis goes out the window imo when you consider that the ISO stats and premise underlying it are based primarily on a period during which those plays were run for Lin. For better or worse, those plays would not have been run for him in the present Knicks system, with the present Knicks lineup.

I don't think Felton is better than Lin. But I also don't think Lin is an essential missing piece in the championship puzzle for this team as presently constructed. At the price they would have to pay to keep him, that's what Lin would need to be imo.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

The "Synergy Sports Technology" analysis goes out the window imo when you consider that the ISO stats and premise underlying it are based primarily on a period during which those plays were run for Lin. For better or worse, those plays would not have been run for him in the present Knicks system, with the present Knicks lineup.

I don't think Felton is better than Lin. But I also don't think Lin is an essential missing piece in the championship puzzle for this team as presently constructed. At the price they would have to pay to keep him, that's what Lin would need to be imo.

Agreed. I don't think Knicks gonna get anyone without going way over the luxury tax limit. Current Knicks' system would require Lin to pass the ball to Melo and Stat all the time. Lin is best when he has the ball in his hands and create. Lin might not be the best fit for Knicks. He might be better off going to Houston.

As for being top 10 PGs in the league, no one can answer that honestly. No one really knows what is Lin's ceiling. He is a damn good player that's for sure.

 

[JaYnYcE]

Agreed. I don't think Knicks gonna get anyone without going way over the luxury tax limit. Current Knicks' system would require Lin to pass the ball to Melo and Stat all the time. Lin is best when he has the ball in his hands and create. Lin might not be the best fit for Knicks. He might be better off going to Houston.

As for being top 10 PGs in the league, no one can answer that honestly. No one really knows what is Lin's ceiling. He is a damn good player that's for sure.

Eh, I think the jury is still out on him being a damn good player.


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[8893]

Eh, I think the jury is still out on him being a damn good player.

In terms of assessing Lin's value as a NBA player, I think it is fair to consider him a damn good player. At least I'm convinced that he is. I think he would/will be a starter on most teams, including Houston. Woodson said that he would have been the starting PG for Knicks if he had returned, and I think they were willing to give that a legitimate shot. I don't know how well that would have worked out, but if it didn't I would expect the cause to attributable more to Melo's conflicting needs than anything else. I don't think Felton is an upgrade for the Knicks, but it is probably a better deal for them in the long run, all things considered.

 

[UConn990411]

I think he would/will be a starter on most teams, including Houston.

It's hilarious how overrated Lin has already gotten.

He would not be a starter on most teams. I'm not even sure he could start on half the teams in the league. Here is a list of guys that he would definitely not start over:
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Derrick Rose (when healthy)
Rajon Rondo
Steve Nash
Russell Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Tony Parker
Ty Lawson
Mike Conley
Brandon Jennings
Jameer Nelson

And here's a list of guys he probably wouldn't/might not start over:
Ricky Rubio (when healthy)
Jeff Teague
Jrue Holiday
Darren Collison
Andre Miller
Goran Dragic
Devin Harris
Jose Calderon

I like Lin, and he can obviously play. But we have no idea how good he is based on <30 games playing the point under D'Antoni.

 

[8893]

It's hilarious how overrated Lin has already gotten.

He would not be a starter on most teams. I'm not even sure he could start on half the teams in the league. Here is a list of guys that he would definitely not start over:
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Derrick Rose (when healthy)
Rajon Rondo
Steve Nash
Russell Westbrook
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Tony Parker
Ty Lawson
Mike Conley
Brandon Jennings
Jameer Nelson

And here's a list of guys he probably wouldn't/might not start over:
Ricky Rubio (when healthy)
Jeff Teague
Jrue Holiday
Darren Collison
Andre Miller
Goran Dragic
Devin Harris
Jose Calderon

I like Lin, and he can obviously play. But we have no idea how good he is based on <30 games playing the point under D'Antoni.

I don't disagree with any of that, and I don't mean to overrate him. As I said, I think he has already done enough imo to establish that he is a "damn good player." As for starting on most teams, I haven't done a side-by-side to see whether it's most, half or many; what I meant is that most teams considering signing him now would be doing so with the intent to at least give him a shot as their starting PG. That is certainly the case with the Knicks and Houston; i.e., they are both evaluating him as their starting PG. I agree that we don't know how good he could be yet, and I don't think he'll be a superstar. But in evaluating where he fits in the NBA, I think it is fair to assume that he will be given a shot as the starting point guard for whichever team he signs with. What happens from there depends on what he does with it, and how well he fits and/or adapts. IMO he has a better chance of remaining the starting PG in Houston than in New York.

 

[JaYnYcE]

Brandon Jennings is an incredibly inefficient player. I would start him and Lin but I wouldn't put my PG duties in Jennings' hands.


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[UConn990411]

Agree with all of that. And he will definitely start for Houston now that they traded away Kyle Lowry.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Well, promoting black players I'm not sure about. Last time I checked the NBA was 85% black. Plain and simple, he's like a Bill Reilly that talks about sports.

BTW, I am glad someone else in the media is calling out Stephen A Smith's ridiculous crusade to put down Jeremy Lin. SAS is simply a bias genius with a microphone. He is lucky he got a job cause his opinions are worthless.

http://knicks.lohudblogs.com/2012/07/16/mr-smith-goes-to-crazytown/

 

[Scoe]

I like Stephen A he just calls it like it is and people dont like that, do his opinions get in the way of his reporting yes but at least he is honest about what he says. When it comes to the NBA he actually does know his stuff, not saying I totally agree with what he says all the time.

 

[JaYnYcE]

SAS is the man. He knows what he's talking about and is entertaining. I don't with everything he says though.


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[8893]

NY Times and ESPN now reporting what SAS has been saying since Sunday, i.e., that the Knicks won't match Houston's offer and will let Lin walk.

I'll believe it when midnight passes; for some reason I could still see Dolan changing his mind at the last minute.

I didn't realize until reading today that, under the NBA rules, the Knicks were actually pretty limited in terms of their ability to make an offer to Lin without having another team's deal to match. Pretty screwy rules all over this deal, and I still don't know whether it turned out the way each of the parties intended, except probably Houston, which really needs a PG at this point.