Rankings: Don't Expect Much Movement Through Season's End

[Fairfield Fan]

Here's a test: for each of the top 5 seed lines, who do you think are the 4 teams right now? Then we can compare the final bracket and whether there is indeed no movement between now and then.

You're talking about 1 seeds; I was talking about the Top 25 ratings. I strongly doubt that any team now in the top four in either the AP or Coaches' polls will fall out of the top 10 in those rankings by the end of the regular season. This week, just one team fell out of the Top 25 in the AP poll. As I suggested, there was just some jiggling within that group: Ohio State comes down some, DePaul goes up a bit, as does K-State. But strikes me as minor movements, not the sort of one group in/another group out sort of transformation.

 

[Vowelguy]

You're talking about 1 seeds; I was talking about the Top 25 ratings. I strongly doubt that any team now in the top four in either the AP or Coaches' polls will fall out of the top 10 in those rankings by the end of the regular season. This week, just one team fell out of the Top 25 in the AP poll. As I suggested, there was just some jiggling within that group: Ohio State comes down some, DePaul goes up a bit, as does K-State. But strikes me as minor movements, not the sort of one group in/another group out sort of transformation.

No I was talking about the four 1 seeds, four 2 seeds, ..., four 5 seeds.
You say there is going to be little movement; that is a testable assumption.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

No I was talking about the four 1 seeds, four 2 seeds, ..., four 5 seeds.
You say there is going to be little movement; that is a testable assumption.

Not to belabor a point, but I wasn't talking about seeds, only top 25 rankings. Sure there will be some back and forth within seedings. I meant AP and Coaches' polls.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not to belabor a point, but I wasn't talking about seeds, only top 25 rankings. Sure there will be some back and forth within seedings. I meant AP and Coaches' polls.

Fine. Use the AP poll. What is your definition of "not much movement?"
The average team will move 1 slot? 2? 4?

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't think there will be many surprises, or much movement in the rankings from now on.

.

Yup, no more surprises.

 

[Vowelguy]

Frankly, it's wait until March Madness now for most of the ranked teams.

(Rankings from date of orig post)

#6 Notre Dame lost to unranked Tennessee
#5 South Carolina lost to unranked Tennessee
#8 Washington lost to #13 Stanford
#2 Baylor lost to #16 Texas
#10 Oregon St lost to unranked USC
#17 UCLA lost to unranked Oregon
#9 Louisville lost to #23 NC St
#15 Virginia Tech lost to unranked Virginia, Syracuse, Georgia Tech​

Yup, all the ranked teams have nothing to worry about until March.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

(Rankings from date of orig post)

#6 Notre Dame lost to unranked Tennessee
#5 South Carolina lost to unranked Tennessee
#8 Washington lost to #13 Stanford
#2 Baylor lost to #16 Texas
#10 Oregon St lost to unranked USC
#17 UCLA lost to unranked Oregon
#9 Louisville lost to #23 NC St
#15 Virginia Tech lost to unranked Virginia, Syracuse, Georgia Tech​

Yup, all the ranked teams have nothing to worry about until March.

Good points. I'm not sure I take the losses by "ranked" Pac-12 teams very seriously. I think that conference is a muddle of middling.
Not sure the Baylor loss to Texas is a real upset. Texas has been tearing up WCBB since about November.
NC State and Tennessee have definitely created some mayhem in the ranks. VaTech disappeared, as did Cal.

But I take your points. More unexpected losses.

 

[Tonyc]

Well its pretty safe to say barring injuries and sickness UConn can loose a game and still be number 1 overall because Baylor has 2 loses one being to Uconn. With that said UConn may not lose a game for a couple of years with who that have and who is coming in next season and the season after and another if if I may if Sam Burnelle and Danielle Cosgrove come to UConn that will be a feat that will be hard to break for about the next 10 years. Think about that.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm not sure I take the losses by "ranked" Pac-12 teams very seriously. I think that conference is a muddle of middling.
Not sure the Baylor loss to Texas is a real upset.
.

First you say that the rankings aren't going to move at all and that the top teams are on cruise control until march.
Then when they do lose, proving your statement was folly, you try to discount it.

 

[Plebe]

(Rankings from date of orig post)

#6 Notre Dame lost to unranked Tennessee
#5 South Carolina lost to unranked Tennessee
#8 Washington lost to #13 Stanford
#2 Baylor lost to #16 Texas
#10 Oregon St lost to unranked USC
#17 UCLA lost to unranked Oregon
#9 Louisville lost to #23 NC St
#15 Virginia Tech lost to unranked Virginia, Syracuse, Georgia Tech​

Yup, all the ranked teams have nothing to worry about until March.

In addition to the ones you named:

#14 Miami lost by 33 to unranked Syracuse
#18 West Virginia lost by 25 to unranked Iowa State
#19 Arizona State lost to unranked USC
#20 South Florida lost to unranked Memphis
#21 DePaul lost to unranked Marquette
#23 NC State lost to unranked UNC
#24 Cal lost to unranked Washington State and unranked Utah
#25 Kansas State lost to unranked Iowa State​

If I'm counting right, that makes at least 16 (64%) of the then-ranked teams that have since lost to unranked or lower-ranked teams.

Disturbingly, it's a phenomenon that extends well beyond Tennessee, NC State, and the Pac-12.

 

[Txhoopsalot]

In addition to the ones you named:

#14 Miami lost by 33 to unranked Syracuse
#18 West Virginia lost by 25 to unranked Iowa State
#19 Arizona State lost to unranked USC
#20 South Florida lost to unranked Memphis
#21 DePaul lost to unranked Marquette
#23 NC State lost to unranked UNC
#24 Cal lost to unranked Washington State and unranked Utah
#25 Kansas State lost to unranked Iowa State​

If I'm counting right, that makes at least 16 (64%) of the then-ranked teams that have since lost to unranked or lower-ranked teams.

Disturbingly, it's a phenomenon that extends well beyond Tennessee, NC State, and the Pac-12.

But wait-this means more parity. That's good right?

 

[Vowelguy]

​

Disturbingly?

 

[Plebe]

Disturbingly?​

Tongue in cheek.