nelsonmuntz
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As we get close to league play, I wanted to see people's opinions about the league teams. My take:
NCAA Locks:
1) Syracuse - playing like a talented, experienced team. May be Boeheim's deepest squad yet.
2) UConn - playing like a very talented, inexperienced team. Individually fantastic defensively, but too many team defensive lapses. Offense could use some work, especially on getting the ball down low to guys at the right spots, and big man passing needs to improve. We will see a lot of zone this year.
3) Marquette - at year end, Marquette fans are going to wonder 'what if" about this season. Losing Otule hurts, but Williams' game coaching is the bigger problem. Starting 5 is as good as any in the league, and Crowder and Johnson Odom are undefendable, but they lose too many to the LSU's of the world to be a credible BE Champion or Final Four Contender.
4) Louisville - very good team on paper, something is missing. Pitino is good enough to win 11 or 12 in the Big East the way it is this year, and will get a high seed in the Dance, but this is not a great team.
5) Georgetown - I love the way Georgetown plays. They are the best offensive team in the league every single year. They don't have the talent to consistently beat the top teams nationally or in the Big East, but on a given night, are a very tough matchup.
6) Pitt - Same old Pitt, with a little less talent than usual. Gibbs is a really good complementary player that is not really capable of carrying a team deep in March, and they have a couple of starters that would be backups on a typical Pitt team (Taylor, Robinson). Good team though.
HUGE GAP
Bubble:
7) WVU - Kevin Jones is one of the best players in the league, but I hate picking a team this high that starts a bonehead like Truck Bryant or depends on a goofball like Deniz Kilici for major production. Kilici should be a first time all-conference, but he plays with his head up his ass for about half of every game.
NIT:
8) Depaul - Depaul is so close to being a good team. They seem to beat themselves at crunch time, but much of that is youth and will improve with time. Melvin is the real deal, and will have a great career at Depaul if he can stay healthy. Defensively, this team is actually a tough matchup for UConn, but they waste too many possessions on the other end and are probably a year away from an NCAA bid.
9) Seton Hall - Pope is finally breaking out, like he should have 2 years ago. The starting 5 is solid, with Theodore a very respectable player. I did not expect the team to be this improved, and had thought Willard was a mistake, but he is impressing me this year. I think he needs to find at least 1 more guy he can play, because you can't press in Big East play if you are only playing 6 guys. If he can find that guy, SHU could make the Dance.
10) Cincinnati - this team had issues before Gates' cheap shot against Xavier. Cronin's teams chronically underachieve. I think he is too high strung and emotional, but whatever the reason, there is way too much talent on this team to be losing to teams like Marshall and Presbyterian. Wright, Dixon, Gates and Kilpatrick can hold their own against most players, but this team does not have the mental toughness, and seems to go through wretched cold stretches almost every game. I feel like this team will be .500 or worse in league play, which will not warrant an NCAA bid.
11) Providence - Cooley has gotten the team to play smarter, and some defense, but I am not impressed by the 10-2 record compiled against a bunch of cupcakes. Council is a decent player, nothing more, and Cotton has some potential. They should make the NIT, but I don't see them pulling too many upsets. This team needs a major talent upgrade.
gap
No postseason:
12) Villanova - Looks like Lappas' teams after Kittles left. Well coached teams with mediocre talent that are not a threat to do anything in league play. Wayns and Yarou are average/above average players. There is nothing special about anyone on this team, and they will be an afterthought all season.
13) Notre Dame - I am not sure how this team got so bad. Abromaitis was a huge loss, but there is basically no one else on this team that matters at all. I am not sure how that can happen with a major program. Defensively they are not as bad as most Brey teams, but they have no players that can create, making them easy to defend.
14) USF - Gilchrist should be on track to be a high lottery pick by now, and has instead regressed every year. Anderson is a solid junkyard dog, and Poland is average at the 2 (has he been injured?). The rest of the team is not terrible on paper, but Heath is still the coach so they will suck.
15) Rutgers - The revenge of Fred Hill Jr. The upperclassmen suck and the freshmen are freshmen. I like Rice, but this is going to be a long year. You may see an upset or two late.
16) St. Johns - perfect storm of 3 years of lousy Norm Roberts recruiting with a serious illness by Lavin and a bunch of players not getting eligible. Losing Lindsey was the backbreaker though, because I think he is excellent, if obviously incredibly immature even for an 18 year old. You can write-off this season.
NCAA Locks:
1) Syracuse - playing like a talented, experienced team. May be Boeheim's deepest squad yet.
2) UConn - playing like a very talented, inexperienced team. Individually fantastic defensively, but too many team defensive lapses. Offense could use some work, especially on getting the ball down low to guys at the right spots, and big man passing needs to improve. We will see a lot of zone this year.
3) Marquette - at year end, Marquette fans are going to wonder 'what if" about this season. Losing Otule hurts, but Williams' game coaching is the bigger problem. Starting 5 is as good as any in the league, and Crowder and Johnson Odom are undefendable, but they lose too many to the LSU's of the world to be a credible BE Champion or Final Four Contender.
4) Louisville - very good team on paper, something is missing. Pitino is good enough to win 11 or 12 in the Big East the way it is this year, and will get a high seed in the Dance, but this is not a great team.
5) Georgetown - I love the way Georgetown plays. They are the best offensive team in the league every single year. They don't have the talent to consistently beat the top teams nationally or in the Big East, but on a given night, are a very tough matchup.
6) Pitt - Same old Pitt, with a little less talent than usual. Gibbs is a really good complementary player that is not really capable of carrying a team deep in March, and they have a couple of starters that would be backups on a typical Pitt team (Taylor, Robinson). Good team though.
HUGE GAP
Bubble:
7) WVU - Kevin Jones is one of the best players in the league, but I hate picking a team this high that starts a bonehead like Truck Bryant or depends on a goofball like Deniz Kilici for major production. Kilici should be a first time all-conference, but he plays with his head up his ass for about half of every game.
NIT:
8) Depaul - Depaul is so close to being a good team. They seem to beat themselves at crunch time, but much of that is youth and will improve with time. Melvin is the real deal, and will have a great career at Depaul if he can stay healthy. Defensively, this team is actually a tough matchup for UConn, but they waste too many possessions on the other end and are probably a year away from an NCAA bid.
9) Seton Hall - Pope is finally breaking out, like he should have 2 years ago. The starting 5 is solid, with Theodore a very respectable player. I did not expect the team to be this improved, and had thought Willard was a mistake, but he is impressing me this year. I think he needs to find at least 1 more guy he can play, because you can't press in Big East play if you are only playing 6 guys. If he can find that guy, SHU could make the Dance.
10) Cincinnati - this team had issues before Gates' cheap shot against Xavier. Cronin's teams chronically underachieve. I think he is too high strung and emotional, but whatever the reason, there is way too much talent on this team to be losing to teams like Marshall and Presbyterian. Wright, Dixon, Gates and Kilpatrick can hold their own against most players, but this team does not have the mental toughness, and seems to go through wretched cold stretches almost every game. I feel like this team will be .500 or worse in league play, which will not warrant an NCAA bid.
11) Providence - Cooley has gotten the team to play smarter, and some defense, but I am not impressed by the 10-2 record compiled against a bunch of cupcakes. Council is a decent player, nothing more, and Cotton has some potential. They should make the NIT, but I don't see them pulling too many upsets. This team needs a major talent upgrade.
gap
No postseason:
12) Villanova - Looks like Lappas' teams after Kittles left. Well coached teams with mediocre talent that are not a threat to do anything in league play. Wayns and Yarou are average/above average players. There is nothing special about anyone on this team, and they will be an afterthought all season.
13) Notre Dame - I am not sure how this team got so bad. Abromaitis was a huge loss, but there is basically no one else on this team that matters at all. I am not sure how that can happen with a major program. Defensively they are not as bad as most Brey teams, but they have no players that can create, making them easy to defend.
14) USF - Gilchrist should be on track to be a high lottery pick by now, and has instead regressed every year. Anderson is a solid junkyard dog, and Poland is average at the 2 (has he been injured?). The rest of the team is not terrible on paper, but Heath is still the coach so they will suck.
15) Rutgers - The revenge of Fred Hill Jr. The upperclassmen suck and the freshmen are freshmen. I like Rice, but this is going to be a long year. You may see an upset or two late.
16) St. Johns - perfect storm of 3 years of lousy Norm Roberts recruiting with a serious illness by Lavin and a bunch of players not getting eligible. Losing Lindsey was the backbreaker though, because I think he is excellent, if obviously incredibly immature even for an 18 year old. You can write-off this season.
