Just completed my final bracketology. I assumed wins for all of the teams seeded higher in the tournament finals today, though also considered that the committee itself doesn't really take these weekend results into account. You'll note that I don't have Arkansas in my top 16, for example, despite their SEC tournament crown. My full bracket and s-curve is also attached.
My top 16 seeds and their pod sites:
East: 1. (1) Duke - Greenville; 2. (6) UConn - Philly; 3. Nebraska (12) - Oklahoma City; 4. (16) Kansas - Portland
Midwest: 1. (2) Michigan - Buffalo; 2. (7) Iowa St - St. Louis; 3. (10) Illinois - Philly; 4. (13) Vanderbilt - Greenville
West: 1. (3) Arizona - San Diego; 2. (8) Purdue - St. Louis; 3. Gonzaga (11) - Portland; 4. (15) Alabama - San Diego
South: 1. (4) Florida - Tampa; 2. (5) Houston - Oklahoma City; 3. (9) Michigan St - Buffalo; 4. (14) Virginia - Tampa
Notes:
UConn to the East actually feels very solid right now. I do see a world where the committee still has us ahead of Houston on the curve and we are in the South instead (don't think this is overly likely).
I agree with Miami (FL)/UCF a very probable 7/10 game for us. I probably got a little cute and moved Miami to another quadrant, but it would be perfectly in line. Our good friend Kentucky may also be floating around the 7 line.
I wish the committee did take into account conference tournaments more. Arkansas and Vanderbilt could have seen major jumps (I've already given Vandy a decent jump from 16-17 to 13 after accounting for their TN and FL wins). Virginia also could push for a 3 if the committee considered their ACCT performance.
Our 3 is 99% going to be a B1G team, mainly because that's who's floating along the line. I originally had us paired with Michigan St on my bracket, but swapped them with Nebraska for competitive purposes. All of them are beatable, but let's get through the first two rounds before thinking too hard about that.
I'll repeat: the bubble suuuuuuucks. My last four in are Missouri, Texas, SMU, and Miami (OH). I also have them all behind South Florida on the S-Curve; assuming they win today, they've actually got a really strong resume for a mid-major team. Cuse would be lucky to poach their coach. If Miami (OH) is left out for an Auburn or a Cal or an Indiana, it'll be a downright travesty. VCU should be in. If they lose today, I fear it might knock Miami (OH) out, but I hope it would knock out SMU or Texas.
Mountain West kinda screwed themselves into being a one-bid league. I think both SDSU and New Mexico are on the outside looking in. At various points both of those teams in addition to Nevada, Boise, and GCU were on the tournament radar.
As mentioned, PDF attached of my full bracket and S-curve. I'm certainly no expert, but I guarantee I'm miles better than Lunardi. Happy March!
