Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[RuffRuff]

I’m so ready to get out of BE play. Get me to the tournament. I’m ready for the final verdict.

Same here - that felt like a grind.

I think Hurley vouched for shortening the BE season so you could insert some OOC competition during BE play - all for it. It would be nice to see what it would look like to play out of BE play mid season.

 

[UConNick]

I really question how they could put a 2 seed on a home floor in the second weekend.

I understand your logic, but since 2010, almost half of 1 seeds have been at a geographic disadvantage compared to their bracketed 2 seed. Perhaps nothing as extreme as Houston playing in their home city, but some notable examples:

2011 Anaheim: 1 seed Duke, 2 seed San Diego St (we know how this one ended!)
2012 St. Louis: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Kansas
2014 Indianapolis: 1 seed Wichita St, 2 seed Michigan
2015 Los Angeles: 1 seed Wisconsin, 2 seed Arizona
2023 Las Vegas: 1 seed Kansas, 2 seed UCLA (we also know how this one turned out)
2024 Los Angeles: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Arizona

The s-curve does strange things, and while I think the committee might hesitate about Houston being in Houston, it's lining up almost perfectly for them to get it. Interesting that when this does happen to the most extreme (11, 23, 24), UConn tends to win the national title...

 

[RuffRuff]

I understand your logic, but since 2010, almost half of 1 seeds have been at a geographic disadvantage compared to their bracketed 2 seed. Perhaps nothing as extreme as Houston playing in their home city, but some notable examples:

2011 Anaheim: 1 seed Duke, 2 seed San Diego St (we know how this one ended!)
2012 St. Louis: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Kansas
2014 Indianapolis: 1 seed Wichita St, 2 seed Michigan
2015 Los Angeles: 1 seed Wisconsin, 2 seed Arizona
2023 Las Vegas: 1 seed Kansas, 2 seed UCLA (we also know how this one turned out)
2024 Los Angeles: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Arizona

The s-curve does strange things, and while I think the committee might hesitate about Houston being in Houston, it's lining up almost perfectly for them to get it. Interesting that when this does happen to the most extreme (11, 23, 24), UConn tends to win the national title...

These are a bit different than the 2 seed playing in is direct hit home town.

Los Angeles to Arizona is not Houston in Houston.

 

[BFieldHusky]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

 

[CTBasketball]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

Big Pat also out until at least R32. They are very vulnerable.

 

[RuffRuff]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

For awhile, I think it's the season. Had foot surgery. I'd like the East anyway.

 

[scdono]

What if we lose by 50 to St. John’s in the final?

If that happens, which seems highly improbable, they’ll still give us a two seed

 

[Jbirdp5]

Big Pat also out until at least R32. They are very vulnerable.

A friend of mine big duke fan says foster is done for year and it’s the bad foot of big pat that is bothering him so duke fans seem to think it won’t be a rest a week and feel better issue

 

[bendm]

Really need Duke to lose so they aren’t the 1 overall seed. If we end up as the top 2 seed, which Is likely if we win the BET by beating SJU (unless Houston wins the Big12 tourney), then we can’t be in the east if Duke is #1 overall. Doubt the committee Will take the injury into account. Maybe if Zona win the big12 tourney they could jump Duke for 1 overall.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Games to watch today for seeding purposes:

12:30 p.m. Iowa St v.s. Texas Tech (Big 12 Quarters)
6:30 p.m. Purdue v.s. Northwestern (Big 10 3rd Round)
7:00 p.m. Houston v.s. BYU (Big 12 Quarters)

 

[alexd]

These conferences are freakin ridiculous. BIG10 has a play in round (2 games) plus 5 rounds.

 

[uh-no]

A friend of mine big duke fan says foster is done for year and it’s the bad foot of big pat that is bothering him so duke fans seem to think it won’t be a rest a week and feel better issue

foster had a broken 5th metatarsal and had surgery the other day. I can't imagine he's NOT done.

Pat's thing is a bit more vague. The question will be whether they can, as you say, rest him up, get him some cortisone, and get him for some useful minutes.

Their defense is going to take a BIG hit. boozer is a major downgrade on the defensive end, and without pat as the reliable backstop, they may have issues if the offense goes cold.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Games to watch today for seeding purposes:

12:30 p.m. Iowa St v.s. Texas Tech (Big 12 Quarters)
3:00 p.m. Houston v.s. UCF (Big 12 Quarters)
6:30 p.m. Purdue v.s. Northwestern (Big 10 3rd Round)

Arizona plays UCF not Houston. Houston gets BYU at 7:00. No easy games left in the Big XII.

I hope Tennessee demolishes those frauds at Auburn. The SEC is being massively overrated.

 

[Tenspro2002]

If we're still talking about #1 seeds, another underdiscussed factor is the SEC Tournament schedule.

Florida's quarterfinal game isn't until tomorrow. The championship isn't until Sunday.

We all know the Committee doesn't actually consider Sunday results and may not even pay that much attention to Saturday. It's entirely possible that Florida could clinch a #1 seed just by beating Kentucky or Missouri.

 

[BFieldHusky]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

 

[bendm]

If we're still talking about #1 seeds, another underdiscussed factor is the SEC Tournament schedule.

Florida's quarterfinal game isn't until tomorrow. The championship isn't until Sunday.

We all know the Committee doesn't actually consider Sunday results and may not even pay that much attention to Saturday. It's entirely possible that Florida could clinch a #1 seed just by beating Kentucky or Missouri.

Same with the BIG10 tourney final being Sunday which could impact the order of the 2 seeds.

So for us to have a shot at the 2 in the east we need to be rooting for Zona to win the Big12 on Saturday and jump Duke for #1 overall. That way it doesn’t matter if we’re the strongest 2 seed or not. But even then we’re going Midwest if there’s two BIG teams on the 2 line…The BIG is screwing this up for us.

 

[uh-no]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

make the finals.

None of the other candidates (houston, illinois MSU) are going east as the preference. So we just need to be ahead of one of them.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Same with the BIG10 tourney final being Sunday which could impact the order of the 2 seeds.

So for us to have a shot at the 2 in the east we need to be rooting for Zona to win the Big12 on Saturday and jump Duke for #1 overall. That way it doesn’t matter if we’re the strongest 2 seed or not. But even then we’re going Midwest if there’s two BIG teams on the 2 line…The BIG is screwing this up for us.

I think we need Michigan St or Illinois to be off the 2 line, and be replaced by a non-Big Ten team. Iowa State?

 

[navery12]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

I'm not great with all the nuances of moving teams around, but I think the easiest path would be Michigan winning the Big Ten and passing Duke for the #1 overall seed. Could see it happening if Duke slips up with no Foster/Ngongba

 

[Tenspro2002]

Why are we suddenly obsessed again about being #2 in the East?

 

[aceboon]

Why are we suddenly obsessed again about being #2 in the East?

Duke's injuries might make them more vulnerable

 

[bendm]

I'm not great with all the nuances of moving teams around, but I think the easiest path would be Michigan winning the Big Ten and passing Duke for the #1 overall seed. Could see it happening if Duke slips up with no Foster/Ngongba

Same result with Zona being #1 overall I think. The issue is still if there’s two BIG teams on the 2 line and Houston gets south. that means the BIG teams have to go East and West and we get Midwest.

Michigan also won’t win the BIG10 until Sunday so I think it’s more likely Zona jumps to #1 after winning the Big12 on Saturday

 

[BFieldHusky]

Why are we suddenly obsessed again about being #2 in the East?

I am just curious. A banged up Duke team might be more ideal than being in the Midwest with Michigan.

 

[bendm]

@auror @UConNick
if UConn and Houston are both 2 seeds how will the committee balance geographic preference? Will the higher rated 2 get dibs? For example, let’s say the 2 seeds are #5 UConn, #6 Houston, #7 Illinois, #8 MSU. Why couldn’t the committee say:
East:
1 Duke (assuming not #1 overall)
2 UConn
Midwest:
1 Michigan
2 Houston
South:
Florida
Illinois
West:
1 Zona
2 MSU

The issue is if Houston goes south we can’t stay east because that would put a BIG team in the Midwest with Michigan. But why would Houston get their geographic preference over us if we finish higher on the s-curve??

 

[Chonky]

@auror @UConNick
if UConn and Houston are both 2 seeds how will the committee balance geographic preference? Will the higher rated 2 get dibs? For example, let’s say the 2 seeds are #5 UConn, #6 Houston, #7 Illinois, #8 MSU. Why couldn’t the committee say:
East:
1 Duke (assuming not #1 overall)
2 UConn
Midwest:
1 Michigan
2 Houston
South:
Florida
Illinois
West:
1 Zona
2 MSU

The issue is if Houston goes south we can’t stay east because that would put a BIG team in the Midwest with Michigan. But why would Houston get their geographic preference over us??

Because of the s curve. They won’t make the top 1 seed (currently Duke) host the top 2 seed (currently us). Duke has to drop down or we would have to (no one wants this obviously). With so many B10/B12 1 and 2 seeds and the need to avoid conference matchups in elite 8 it pushes us in MW most likely.

All of this is at the moment. It can obviously (and will to an extent) change.

 

[Chonky]

Duke's injuries might make them more vulnerable

Also…..which is easier for us to travel to?

Houston or Wash DC?

 

[bendm]

Because of the s curve. They won’t make the top 1 seed (currently Duke) host the top 2 seed (currently us). Duke has to drop down or we would have to (no one wants this obviously). With so many B10/B12 1 and 2 seeds and the need to avoid conference matchups in elite 8 it pushes us in MW most likely.

All of this is at the moment. It can obviously (and will to an extent) change.

I’m sorry but This doesn’t address my question at all. I specified Duke cannot be the overall #1 if we are #5 and that a BIG team can’t be paired with UM in the Midwest. The question is will Houston get geographical preference over us if we finish higher on the s-curve. why can’t they go to the Midwest? Did you read anything I wrote?? lol.

 

[bendm]

Also…..which is easier for us to travel to?

Houston or Wash DC?

Have you looked at a map lately?? Our geographic preference is obviously DC followed by Chicago then Houston.

 

[auror]

@auror @UConNick
if UConn and Houston are both 2 seeds how will the committee balance geographic preference? Will the higher rated 2 get dibs? For example, let’s say the 2 seeds are #5 UConn, #6 Houston, #7 Illinois, #8 MSU. Why couldn’t the committee say:
East:
1 Duke (assuming not #1 overall)
2 UConn
Midwest:
1 Michigan
2 Houston
South:
Florida
Illinois
West:
1 Zona
2 MSU

The issue is if Houston goes south we can’t stay east because that would put a BIG team in the Midwest with Michigan. But why would Houston get their geographic preference over us if we finish higher on the s-curve??

They may compare our 2nd choice distance to Houston's 2nd choice distance and try to reduce overall distance. Or they may look at overall balance and see if moving the teams improves the balance once all 1-4 seeds are in.

Edit because I re-read. They start by going down s-curve, so the higher ranked team does get preference first. But the issue becomes if they run into a problem later due to conference or rematch rules and need to go back and re-do it. At that point, they have may have to change things, and that's where they would have try to optimize for something other than straight first choice geography.

 

[aceboon]