Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[RuffRuff]

OK, newest projection done. Here's where I have things:

East: 1. (1) Duke - Greenville; 2. (7) Illinois - St. Louis; 3. Iowa St (9) - St. Louis; 4. (16) Kansas - Portland

Midwest: 1. (2) Michigan - Philadelphia; 2. (6) UConn - Philadelphia; 3. (10) Nebraska - Oklahoma City; 4. (15) Virginia - Tampa

West: 1. (3) Arizona - San Diego; 2. (8) Michigan St - Buffalo; 3. (11) Gonzaga - Portland; 4. (13) Alabama - Greenville

South: 1. (4) Florida - Tampa; 2. (5) Houston - Oklahoma City; 3. (12) Purdue - Buffalo; 4. (14) Texas Tech - San Diego

I've got our quadrant as 2. UConn vs. 15. ETSU and 7. Georgia vs 10. UCF. Both teams on paper we should be able to beat, but certainly not pushovers. Georgia in particular had a resume that surprised me (in how they got to my 7-line); very good minus their dearth of top wins.

I also concur with @bendm - if we're on the 2-line, and not the first one, then going to the Midwest is very likely, since the B1G teams also in the hunt along that 2-line will have to go anywhere but with Michigan. If we pass Houston and get back to no. 5 on the S-curve, it's possible the committee might send us to South for competitive purposes, and in that case Houston is almost assured of going to the Midwest instead. But the East is also back in play, depending on who else joins us and presumably Houston on the line.

Iowa State could make things interesting if they get to the 2-line. A good Big 12 tourney could do that, but they probably can't pass us on the S-curve. If the 2s are, in order, Houston, us, Iowa St, Illinois (or MSU, or Nebraska, or Purdue), then Houston gets South/UF, and we might sneak to the East/Duke, with Iowa St going to the Midwest/Mich and [insert B1G team] going to the West/AZ. If that played out, we'd probably get one of the worse 3-seeds, maybe a Purdue or an Alabama. Further, if Iowa State does push to the 2-line, and it's two Big 12 teams on the line instead of two B1G teams, the West becomes a possibility for us.

I have a tough time seeing us falling off the 2-line unless we get upset on Thursday and a team like Nebraska, Iowa State, or Purdue goes on an impressive run in their conference tournament. I'd say if we're a 2, about a 55% chance of the Midwest, a 30% chance of the South, 10% East, and 5% West.

A lot still to figure out. The 1 is probably done, but there's a lot to play for in terms of matchups and placement on the S-curve. This week is going to be freaking awesome, a great appetizer for the main event next week.

I really question how they could put a 2 seed on a home floor in the second weekend.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I really question how they could put a 2 seed on a home floor in the second weekend.

They did with a 4 seed last year. Purdue was in Indianapolis.

 

[RuffRuff]

They did with a 4 seed last year. Purdue was in Indianapolis.

I remember that, in that draped off dark arena. They took Houston to the wire. To give a 2 that would seem a really to the 1 seed.

 

[alphasigko]

After Saturday's disaster 2-Seed at best. (Unless they win the BET)

 

[KingAG]

I’m so ready to get out of BE play. Get me to the tournament. I’m ready for the final verdict.

 

[RuffRuff]

I’m so ready to get out of BE play. Get me to the tournament. I’m ready for the final verdict.

Same here - that felt like a grind.

I think Hurley vouched for shortening the BE season so you could insert some OOC competition during BE play - all for it. It would be nice to see what it would look like to play out of BE play mid season.

 

[UConNick]

I really question how they could put a 2 seed on a home floor in the second weekend.

I understand your logic, but since 2010, almost half of 1 seeds have been at a geographic disadvantage compared to their bracketed 2 seed. Perhaps nothing as extreme as Houston playing in their home city, but some notable examples:

2011 Anaheim: 1 seed Duke, 2 seed San Diego St (we know how this one ended!)
2012 St. Louis: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Kansas
2014 Indianapolis: 1 seed Wichita St, 2 seed Michigan
2015 Los Angeles: 1 seed Wisconsin, 2 seed Arizona
2023 Las Vegas: 1 seed Kansas, 2 seed UCLA (we also know how this one turned out)
2024 Los Angeles: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Arizona

The s-curve does strange things, and while I think the committee might hesitate about Houston being in Houston, it's lining up almost perfectly for them to get it. Interesting that when this does happen to the most extreme (11, 23, 24), UConn tends to win the national title...

 

[RuffRuff]

I understand your logic, but since 2010, almost half of 1 seeds have been at a geographic disadvantage compared to their bracketed 2 seed. Perhaps nothing as extreme as Houston playing in their home city, but some notable examples:

2011 Anaheim: 1 seed Duke, 2 seed San Diego St (we know how this one ended!)
2012 St. Louis: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Kansas
2014 Indianapolis: 1 seed Wichita St, 2 seed Michigan
2015 Los Angeles: 1 seed Wisconsin, 2 seed Arizona
2023 Las Vegas: 1 seed Kansas, 2 seed UCLA (we also know how this one turned out)
2024 Los Angeles: 1 seed North Carolina, 2 seed Arizona

The s-curve does strange things, and while I think the committee might hesitate about Houston being in Houston, it's lining up almost perfectly for them to get it. Interesting that when this does happen to the most extreme (11, 23, 24), UConn tends to win the national title...

These are a bit different than the 2 seed playing in is direct hit home town.

Los Angeles to Arizona is not Houston in Houston.

 

[BFieldHusky]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

 

[CTBasketball]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

Big Pat also out until at least R32. They are very vulnerable.

 

[RuffRuff]

With Duke's Foster being out for a while, would we prefer a 2 seed in the East with Duke right now?

For awhile, I think it's the season. Had foot surgery. I'd like the East anyway.

 

[scdono]

What if we lose by 50 to St. John’s in the final?

If that happens, which seems highly improbable, they’ll still give us a two seed

 

[Jbirdp5]

Big Pat also out until at least R32. They are very vulnerable.

A friend of mine big duke fan says foster is done for year and it’s the bad foot of big pat that is bothering him so duke fans seem to think it won’t be a rest a week and feel better issue

 

[bendm]

Really need Duke to lose so they aren’t the 1 overall seed. If we end up as the top 2 seed, which Is likely if we win the BET by beating SJU (unless Houston wins the Big12 tourney), then we can’t be in the east if Duke is #1 overall. Doubt the committee Will take the injury into account. Maybe if Zona win the big12 tourney they could jump Duke for 1 overall.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Games to watch today for seeding purposes:

12:30 p.m. Iowa St v.s. Texas Tech (Big 12 Quarters)
6:30 p.m. Purdue v.s. Northwestern (Big 10 3rd Round)
7:00 p.m. Houston v.s. BYU (Big 12 Quarters)

 

[alexd]

These conferences are freakin ridiculous. BIG10 has a play in round (2 games) plus 5 rounds.

 

[uh-no]

A friend of mine big duke fan says foster is done for year and it’s the bad foot of big pat that is bothering him so duke fans seem to think it won’t be a rest a week and feel better issue

foster had a broken 5th metatarsal and had surgery the other day. I can't imagine he's NOT done.

Pat's thing is a bit more vague. The question will be whether they can, as you say, rest him up, get him some cortisone, and get him for some useful minutes.

Their defense is going to take a BIG hit. boozer is a major downgrade on the defensive end, and without pat as the reliable backstop, they may have issues if the offense goes cold.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Games to watch today for seeding purposes:

12:30 p.m. Iowa St v.s. Texas Tech (Big 12 Quarters)
3:00 p.m. Houston v.s. UCF (Big 12 Quarters)
6:30 p.m. Purdue v.s. Northwestern (Big 10 3rd Round)

Arizona plays UCF not Houston. Houston gets BYU at 7:00. No easy games left in the Big XII.

I hope Tennessee demolishes those frauds at Auburn. The SEC is being massively overrated.

 

[Tenspro2002]

If we're still talking about #1 seeds, another underdiscussed factor is the SEC Tournament schedule.

Florida's quarterfinal game isn't until tomorrow. The championship isn't until Sunday.

We all know the Committee doesn't actually consider Sunday results and may not even pay that much attention to Saturday. It's entirely possible that Florida could clinch a #1 seed just by beating Kentucky or Missouri.

 

[BFieldHusky]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

 

[bendm]

If we're still talking about #1 seeds, another underdiscussed factor is the SEC Tournament schedule.

Florida's quarterfinal game isn't until tomorrow. The championship isn't until Sunday.

We all know the Committee doesn't actually consider Sunday results and may not even pay that much attention to Saturday. It's entirely possible that Florida could clinch a #1 seed just by beating Kentucky or Missouri.

Same with the BIG10 tourney final being Sunday which could impact the order of the 2 seeds.

So for us to have a shot at the 2 in the east we need to be rooting for Zona to win the Big12 on Saturday and jump Duke for #1 overall. That way it doesn’t matter if we’re the strongest 2 seed or not. But even then we’re going Midwest if there’s two BIG teams on the 2 line…The BIG is screwing this up for us.

 

[uh-no]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

make the finals.

None of the other candidates (houston, illinois MSU) are going east as the preference. So we just need to be ahead of one of them.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Same with the BIG10 tourney final being Sunday which could impact the order of the 2 seeds.

So for us to have a shot at the 2 in the east we need to be rooting for Zona to win the Big12 on Saturday and jump Duke for #1 overall. That way it doesn’t matter if we’re the strongest 2 seed or not. But even then we’re going Midwest if there’s two BIG teams on the 2 line…The BIG is screwing this up for us.

I think we need Michigan St or Illinois to be off the 2 line, and be replaced by a non-Big Ten team. Iowa State?

 

[navery12]

What would we need to happen (besides us winning) to possibly get the 2 seed in the East?

I'm not great with all the nuances of moving teams around, but I think the easiest path would be Michigan winning the Big Ten and passing Duke for the #1 overall seed. Could see it happening if Duke slips up with no Foster/Ngongba

 

[Tenspro2002]

Why are we suddenly obsessed again about being #2 in the East?