Race for 1 Seed (2/5) | Page 24 | The Boneyard

Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

BFieldHusky said:
Are we firmly on the 2 line? I think it's universally accepted that Florida is currently ahead of us for the last 1 seed. I could see Houston also ahead of us, which would put them in Florida's region as the 2 seed, in Houston for the regionals.

Right now the 2 seeds on CBS and ESPN are Houston, UConn, Illinois, and Michigan St. They have the 3 seeds as Alabama/Iowa St/Purdue/Virginia (CBS) or Iowa St/Nebraska/Purdue/Gonzaga (ESPN). Both sites have us in the Midwest Region with Michigan.
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We are very firmly on the 2 line.

1 in South is still possible but highly unlikely. It would take a first round Fla loss in SEC and us running the table.

However, and this is an unpopular take, I still think there are scenarios which put us as a 3. If we drop opening game in MSG (a quad 2 or 3 loss) and the other 5-10 ranked teams win the right games we could drop. Specifically ISU winning the B12 tourney or Illinois/Nebraska/MSU winning Big 10 with early Mich exit.

I’d say about a 3-5 percent chance of a 1. 3-5 percent chance of a 3. 90-95 percent chance of a 2.
 
BFieldHusky said:
Are we firmly on the 2 line? I think it's universally accepted that Florida is currently ahead of us for the last 1 seed. I could see Houston also ahead of us, which would put them in Florida's region as the 2 seed, in Houston for the regionals.

Right now the 2 seeds on CBS and ESPN are Houston, UConn, Illinois, and Michigan St. They have the 3 seeds as Alabama/Iowa St/Purdue/Virginia (CBS) or Iowa St/Nebraska/Purdue/Gonzaga (ESPN). Both sites have us in the Midwest Region with Michigan.
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I would have assumed we’d get the East region as the top 2 seed.
 
Chonky said:
We are very firmly on the 2 line.

1 in South is still possible but highly unlikely. It would take a first round Fla loss in SEC and us running the table.

However, and this is an unpopular take, I still think there are scenarios which put us as a 3. If we drop opening game in MSG (a quad 2 or 3 loss) and the other 5-10 ranked teams win the right games we could drop. Specifically ISU winning the B12 tourney or Illinois/Nebraska/MSU winning Big 10 with early Mich exit.

I’d say about a 3-5 percent chance of a 1. 3-5 percent chance of a 3. 90-95 percent chance of a 2.
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I agree. A loss Thursday night to Marquette or Xavier could bring a 3 into play.
 
UConnTrumbull said:
Not if Duke is number 1 overall and we’re the top 2 seed. If Duke and UConn win out I don’t see how we both end up in East.
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Maybe the cynic in me but I think the S curve is a bunch of BS. They make the s curve and then move people in and off it to accommodate or avoid matchups. Renders it kinda pointless. They’ll put people where they want and use their phony criteria as justification.

That said I don’t think they put us in East with Duke so as not to eat into their home court advantage.

I think MW with Michigan or South with Florida more likely.
 
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Everyone needs to relax. Our WAB is 8.5. Florida’s is 8.2 We beat them head to head. We are very much in the discussion and we were ahead of them going into yesterday. If we win the BET, they need to at least get to the SEC final to steal it from us.
 
shizzle787 said:
Everyone needs to relax. Our WAB is 8.5. Florida’s is 8.2 We beat them head to head. We are very much in the discussion and we were ahead of them going into yesterday. If we win the BET, they need to at least get to the SEC final to steal it from us.
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Doesn't matter what our seed is. I'll be surprised if we make it to the elite 8.
 
shizzle787 said:
Everyone needs to relax. Our WAB is 8.5. Florida’s is 8.2 We beat them head to head. We are very much in the discussion and we were ahead of them going into yesterday. If we win the BET, they need to at least get to the SEC final to steal it from us.
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If you wanna make a point about obsessing over minutia and letting the games play out then, sure. Relax. But this is what fans do. So……relax.

But overarching truth is that, while we can still grab it, the 1 seed is now Floridas to lose. And Florida is playing well right now. The odds of them collapsing to the point of losing it back to us aren’t high. But hey, that why we play the games.

Palm at CBS sums it up nicely.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...racket-florida-uconn-field-of-68-predictions/
 
FightOnCT said:
Really? I can see us beating the 3 seed as easily as losing to the 7/10
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In my opinion, there are only three possible outcomes (due to the fact that we play to the level of our competition): a loss in the Round of 32, and loss in the Sweet 16, or a national championship. Doomed!
 
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I don’t mind being a 2 as long as we’re not in Michigan’s region. I think the Huskies can beat anyone but the Wolverines.

Of course they could also lose to a 15 or a 7. Who knows with this squad.
 
Prior to now I intentionally placed zero regard in our seeding or location. Now I want a significant trophy in front of us. This team needs to believe there is a formidable challenge, well in advance. Once again we have a team capable of causing significant damage if they get out of the subregional. but also capable of getting picked off before the sweet sixteen.

I want to be the two in Duke's region. That's the motivation this team needs, that's the pelt I want on the cave wall.
 
I thought as UConn fans we’d have a little more perspective when it comes to expectations. Yes, the team (and fanbase) has been tumultuous most of the year. But we also know a team with this kind of ceiling should never be counted out. Hell, we know teams with even lower ceilings (2014, 2011) shouldn’t be counted out until we’re truly killed for good. That hasn’t happened quite yet, and doesn’t have to be inevitable as some here seem to believe so vigorously.

There are certainly reasons to doubt the squad in a vacuum. There’s no reason optimism has to be accompanied by delusion. But if you’re doing it now so definitively with the plan to say “I was right, I told you so” if we indeed lose before the Elite Eight, then I think you’ve got the complete wrong tact and mindset.

Not every title is going to feel like a coronation. There will be doldrums. But they can be weathered. We should know that better than just about everyone.

I’m planning on doing another bracket exercise tomorrow once all the regular season games are over. I think the 2 in the Midwest is the most appropriate projection right now, but we’ll see what looks probable once I’ve had a chance to assess the data holistically. The 1 or the 2 in the South isn’t quite dead, though it’s obviously out of our hands now and depends on Florida.
 
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Illinois going thru what we did yesterday. Up 1 pt vs 11-19 Maryland with 12 min left
 
I think our most likely placement as a 2 is in the Midwest with Michigan. Our geographic preference would be East then Midwest. However, Houston will be South based on geographic preference and either Illinois or MSU will go out west as the weakest 2 seed. The one that doesn’t can’t go in the Midwest with UM so that means they’ll go East and we’ll go Midwest. We also can’t be in the East with Duke if we end up as the top 2 seed

So If we want to be in the East then we have to hope Houston is the top 2 seed and ISU replaces either Illinois or MSU as a 2 so they can go in the Midwest.
 
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I feel like Duke will hide Foster’s injury as long as they can to avoid losing the East Region and getting an unfavorable draw.

I’d love to get them in the East.
 
CTBasketball said:
I feel like Duke will hide Foster’s injury as long as they can to avoid losing the East Region and getting an unfavorable draw.

I’d love to get them in the East.
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Then we need to root for Houston to be the top 2 seed and for ISU to replace either Illinois or MSU on the 2 line. Otherwise I think we end up in the Midwest.
 
bendm said:
Then we need to root for ISU to get back on the 2 line and root against Illinois and MSU. Otherwise I think we end up in the Midwest.
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At this point send us to Antarctica and far away from any Big East arena we’ve played in.
 
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